Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[Drivesaitl]

Players that signed an offersheet and stays with their team usually work out. The ones that leaves, well not really. For example, Koktaniemi

This is a reasonable point but not one that agents tend to mention to players. Indeed nobody does. Hockey players aren't necessarily economic savants. They don't figure out for instance that the primary goal of any agent is to maximize their own take which of course appreciates commensurate with contract price. The Agent would want this offer sheet all day. its up to the player to look out for #1 and deduce if its clearly the right thing for him.

Unmentioned is that the Oilers already stocked the cupboards for topsix. Holloway would want one of those spots on a team and theres nothing wrong with him wanting more toi and opportunity. We were wasting him here essentially.

So a lot of factors.

Holloway himself said he wants a bigger role, possibility of topsix, playing with other younger players in a more open roster. Holloway was unequivocal that all the spots being locked up here is a primary reason he chose the offersheet. Its in his Q and A yesterday.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Seems like a no brainer to me. That’s quite the cap swing.

Yep as of right now we can technically add 3-4mill of cap at the deadline if we keep this amount of cap room. Which is a 6-8 mill player retained. Thats a lot of space. Adn then if we happen to have a guy injured to playoffs we have that additionally as well.
If we kept Broberg and just LTIR Kane, the moment Kane was healthy we would have a ton of cap to clear which would massively hurt the team.
From a cap and winning this year perspective, this was the right call.

 

[Canovin]

This is a reasonable point but not one that agents tend to mention to players. Indeed nobody does. Hockey players aren't necessarily economic savants. They don't figure out for instance that the primary goal of any agent is to maximize their own take which of course appreciates commensurate with contract price. The Agent would want this offer sheet all day. its up to the player to look out for #1 and deduce if its clearly the right thing for him.

Unmentioned is that the Oilers already stocked the cupboards for topsix. Holloway would want one of those spots on a team and theres nothing wrong with him wanting more toi and opportunity. We were wasting him here essentially.

So a lot of factors.

Holloway himself said he wants a bigger role, possibility of topsix, playing with other younger players in a more open roster. Holloway was unequivocal that all the spots being locked up here is a primary reason he chose the offersheet. Its in his Q and A yesterday.

I think St. Louis is even deeper than the Oilers at the forward position. Take out 2 of the best players on both teams and I think St. Louis forward group comes out on top. Good luck to Holloway trying to find a spot higher than the 4th line on St. Louis. I mean, he will get some minutes on the top 6 but St. Louis will find out really quick that they have better options than Holloway. Broberg is more likely to strive in St. Louis. His partner is most likely either Faulk or Parayko.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This is a reasonable point but not one that agents tend to mention to players. Indeed nobody does. Hockey players aren't necessarily economic savants. They don't figure out for instance that the primary goal of any agent is to maximize their own take which of course appreciates commensurate with contract price. The Agent would want this offer sheet all day. its up to the player to look out for #1 and deduce if its clearly the right thing for him.

Unmentioned is that the Oilers already stocked the cupboards for topsix. Holloway would want one of those spots on a team and theres nothing wrong with him wanting more toi and opportunity. We were wasting him here essentially.

So a lot of factors.

Holloway himself said he wants a bigger role, possibility of topsix, playing with other younger players in a more open roster. Holloway was unequivocal that all the spots being locked up here is a primary reason he chose the offersheet. Its in his Q and A yesterday.

Agents want the money now not potentially later cause they may not be agents later. Players at the end of the day SHOULD be looking at career earnings not singular contracts.
In Brobergs case, I think this was probably the right move cause if he becomes a top 4 defender his next contract will be big and this is a boost, and if he doesn't this is his career earnings.

In Holloways case I don't think he actually cracks the top 6 either and if he does I don't think he will put up a ton of points. So in the long run I think this hurts his career earnings. Here, he wouldn't be in the top 6 this year but going forward as long as he develops he absolutely would and he will produce more therefore demanding a larger contract with McDrai than he would in St Louis. His agent convinced him to take the money now to the potential detriment of his career earnings.

 

[Fourier]

The reporting is that the Broberg offer was $1.2 million. Haven't heard the Holloway offer if same or less. All reporting suggests the Oilers didn't move off their original offers tendered through the month and a half time duration.

How it has played out during cap stalled years and previously were quite possibly an old paradigm. New money big cap bump with more to come now that the league's revenue stream is stable and growing creates new opportunities within the CBA. The team tendering the offer allegedly had trade discussions at deadline with the young players involved. He made noise in June about prospectively using offer sheets. In mid-July he LTIR's Krug who he tried to trade opening up cap and positional opportunity for a left shot defenseman.

The McLeod trade is exactly what I imagine talking about proactively managing your cap crunch while building up a very weak prospect pool. It's the exact model I would have used early with clarity established Broberg rift could not be mended. Control the situation and seek out a solid NHL ready prospect in return or term. Player wins with a new home. Prospective team wins with an emergent peak years young D off an impressive late playoff performance and salary drag from the inflationary effect of the Offer Sheet process.

Broberg's role is to deliver strong support minutes with increasing responsibilities with special teams play at PK and secondary PP. There's possibility of a managed succession plan with age 36 Ekholm in two years or so to switch ice-time and roles. I'd also have veteran Kulak at mention moved to 2RD and potential deadline move to upgrade the position.

I like all the moves you mention. Aggressively adding O'Reilly to a flaccid prospect pool and a 3C option post Henrique. Jarventie is a bit of a wild card but clear they were done with X-Man who will play closer to his home (sense this was a consideration). Offer Sheet reaction I love the qualified buy low on Polzkolzen. Think he's resetting as a likely middle roster winning with his draft upside recalibrated. As I've said, far easier to pivot away from middle roster wingers. They are the easiest and cheapest position to replace (high supply and cost considerations - trade assets and salary).

So I'm calling early on Broberg and Holloway to ideally retain cheap young roster talent. If not fixable, I'm working to call teams (beginning with the guy who wanted them at trade deadline) and saying let's work out a deal. Call GM's to take temperature of interest and return. Aim for one of their deep pedigree forward prospects and help everyone get what they want.


The reporting I've seen is from the player's representatives. Why I always try to use language like 'alleged.'

Truthfully I really believe that $1.2M would have been a reasonable opening offer for Broberg historically perhaps settling in at $1.5M or so. For me a decent comparator would be Timothy Liljegren. Liljegren was probably slightly more established when he signed his 2 year $1.4M deal. Of course the cap was less then but Liljegren is also RHD which carries a premium. Over $4M for Broberg was not in the cards for any contender, least of which the Oilers. But it seems that Broberg had something like that in his pocket from very early on.

The cap is indeed poised to rise a lot. But that is part of the reason why I think looking to get paid now was a mistake for both players. These were not 8 year deals being negotiated. Next year and to a lesser degree 2026-27 are key years for the Oilers with the cap manageable but tight. After that things really open up. Both players could have been poised to take advantage of the cap opening up just as they may well have established a lot more value to the team in terms of keeping the window open.

 

[AM]

This is a reasonable point but not one that agents tend to mention to players. Indeed nobody does. Hockey players aren't necessarily economic savants. They don't figure out for instance that the primary goal of any agent is to maximize their own take which of course appreciates commensurate with contract price. The Agent would want this offer sheet all day. its up to the player to look out for #1 and deduce if its clearly the right thing for him.

Unmentioned is that the Oilers already stocked the cupboards for topsix. Holloway would want one of those spots on a team and theres nothing wrong with him wanting more toi and opportunity. We were wasting him here essentially.

So a lot of factors.

Holloway himself said he wants a bigger role, possibility of topsix, playing with other younger players in a more open roster. Holloway was unequivocal that all the spots being locked up here is a primary reason he chose the offersheet. Its in his Q and A yesterday.

It’s pretty easy to play in the top six in Edmonton. You just have to earn it. And when you do you get to play with some of the best players ever. That’s not happening in st Lewis. Basically both players cashed in while the going was good.

 

[CupofOil]

Indeed a budding D with speed, quick reads, skate out and some PMD ability should be what a team is looking for. These kinds of D can transform transition and can make plays that burn opponent back coverage. Broberg himself has the speed to break contain. He does it while not even looking like he's skating full tilt.

That an org such as the Oilers so devalued the speed read game of Broberg astounds me. If any org should respect that kind of speed its this one. Worse, they did it with McLeod and Holloway too. Apparently we're supposed to believe speed isn't important anymore, despite what we've seen as Oilers fans.

Lots of copium swimming around this week. It isn't a good thing that we've lost both Broberg and Holloway. But the fanbase quickly adopts the "these players weren't much anyway".

Apparently age doesn't matter anymore. Its another thing we're requested to believe. Succession plan? Don't give the org too much credit. There isn't one. All guns on deck and fire until we run out of ammo.

This I agree with, lots of copium IMO. I think the majority of the fanbase was excited about what the two were bringing in the playoffs and going forward and the narrative did a 180 from some after the OS were signed. In fairness, I think part of them changing tune is the value of having them as CHEAP internal solutions for the next few years as opposed to the potential anchor of them at $7m devaluing them and clogging cap space but, yeah, definitely a little copium being drank for sure.

 

[Canovin]

This I agree with, lots of copium IMO. I think the majority of the fanbase was excited about what the two were bringing in the playoffs and going forward and the narrative did a 180 from some after the OS were signed. In fairness, I think part of them changing tune is the value of having them as CHEAP internal solutions for the next few years as opposed to the potential anchor of them at $7m devaluing them and clogging cap space but, yeah, definitely a little copium being drank for sure.

No Oilers fan should be excited to see Holloway and Broberg cost 7M to play on the Oilers. What got us excited in the playoffs was the fact that their low cost and immediate help could help the Oilers now and the future. All that value was lost the moment they signed the offersheet. They lost their shine.

 

[Oilhawks]

The “copium” is this

It sucks losing these players, but they weren’t worth the contracts they signed with the Blues (and the numbers tossed around about what they “would have signed for before” doesn’t pass the smell test like @McDNicks17 said)

What’s so difficult to reconcile here?

 

[Canovin]

Hard to say anyone is on copium when the Oilers are still likely the favorite to win the cup and one piece away which we have the assets for.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

No Oilers fan should be excited to see Holloway and Broberg cost 7M to play on the Oilers. What got us excited in the playoffs was the fact that their low cost and immediate help could help the Oilers now and the future. All that value was lost the moment they signed the offersheet. They lost their shine.

Perhaps next time we can sign these players and not expose them to offer sheets to begin with.

 

[Canovin]

Maybe they should have sign the deals that was given to them mid season instead of waiting for an offersheet. This is like seeing some girl and she's keeping you in friend zone until she finds some rich dude.

 

[brentashton]

Maybe they should have sign the deals that was given to them mid season instead of waiting for an offersheet. This is like seeing some girl and she's keeping you in friend zone until she finds some rich dude.

I detect from the tone this might be more than just a quick, off the cuff, analogy…

Apologies is not, sympathies if so.

 

[GOilers88]

This I agree with, lots of copium IMO. I think the majority of the fanbase was excited about what the two were bringing in the playoffs and going forward and the narrative did a 180 from some after the OS were signed. In fairness, I think part of them changing tune is the value of having them as CHEAP internal solutions for the next few years as opposed to the potential anchor of them at $7m devaluing them and clogging cap space but, yeah, definitely a little copium being drank for sure.

I think people are coping on both sides.

It sucks to lose two young, homegrown, first round kids who look poised to take that next step.

But the team also isn't going to sink because they're gone, and now the team has more flexibility to add another real IMPACT player for a run. As well as in negotiations with the big guns coming up.

People can draw a line and take one or the other, but both are true. Anyone who is claiming things are f***ed now are likely the same ones who claim everything is f***ed all the time everytime any sort of move is or isn't even made. The team is still a contender, and they clearly have a plan to add as the season progresses.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Truthfully I really believe that $1.2M would have been a reasonable opening offer for Broberg historically perhaps settling in at $1.5M or so. For me a decent comparator would be Timothy Liljegren. Liljegren was probably slightly more established when he signed is 2 year $1.4M deal. Of course the cap was less then but Liljegren is also RHD which carries a premium. Over $4M for Broberg was not in the cards for any contender, least of which the Oilers. But it seems that Broberg had something like that in his pocket from very early on.

The cap is indeed poised to rise a lot. But that is part of the reason why I think looking to get paid now was a mistake for both players. These were not 8 year deals being negotiated. Next year and to a lesser degree 2026-27 are key years for the Oilers with the cap manageable but tight. After that things really open up. Both players could have been poised to take advantage of teh cap opening up just as they may well have stablished a lot more value to the team in terms of keeping the window open.

I'm not disagreeing or ever have about opening low on a restricted free agent. You're essentially negotiating against yourself ... until you aren't. Again, my first reaction to the news was Broberg gone, Holloway retained.

Armstrong didn't even have the collateral required until when the offer sheets were made. The LTIR move in mid-July a clear warning as a viable risk with a guy who you went into deep trade discussions with at trade deadline. EDIT: Adding that in so doing Oilers can bluff directly to GM's and player camp an intention to match any offer for a kid coming off his late playoff coming out party. Assert your leverage to control the outcome.

A pro-active approach with Broberg negotiations and fielding trade offers could have maintained team leverage to negotiate a worst case scenario - trading a coveted young NHL ready d-man. Similar with Holloway.

It's their mistakes to make though. This was both opportunity and money based decisions and mixed signals from the team that drafted them. Broberg's about a million dollars over average NHL salary for defensemen. His upside is well beyond that. In his career development it's an aggressive move to play and prove himself with money secured but that will follow a big, puck moving d-man at age 25 peak performance years. And the Blues cap situation looks favourable with smart planning as a couple old, expensive d-men move off their cap along with others over the next two - three years. Bold move with limited downside of a walkaway of 1/3 salary after one year and a marginal draft pick.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I think people are coping on both sides.

It sucks to lose two young, homegrown, first round kids who look poised to take that next step.

But the team also isn't going to sink because they're gone, and now the team has more flexibility to add another real IMPACT player for a run. As well as in negotiations with the big guns coming up.

People can draw a line and take one or the other, but both are true. Anyone who is claiming things are f***ed now are likely the same ones who claim everything is f***ed all the time everytime any sort of move is or isn't even made. The team is still a contender, and they clearly have a plan to add as the season progresses.

This is the sticking point for me. The team should add impact players, especially on defense, ASAP.

 

[Canovin]

I detect from the tone this might be more than just a quick, off the cuff, analogy…

Apologies is not, sympathies if so.

You can say I ended up with a more beautiful woman and two beautiful kids

 

[Yuke]

With hindsight, I'd take Buch over Holloway and Broberg as he would put the Oilers over the top and I don't see Florida beating the Oilers. That itself is enough to warrant the trade.

Speculation, our 2nd pairing would have been eaten alive

 

[GOilers88]

This is the sticking point for me. The team should add impact players, especially on defense, ASAP.

It's not imperative, at least I don't think so. If they come out of the gates like they did last year it's 100% on the players and it won't matter who they could have or should have added in the summer.

Obviously I could be wrong, but it really smells like another Ekholm kind of move coming for the blueline.

I never prescribe to the "it has to be right now" mentality. Team literally gets better every year, and JJ has done absolutely nothing to make me doubt he doesn't have a plan.

 

[Fourier]

I'm not disagreeing or ever have about opening low on a restricted free agent. You're essentially negotiating against yourself ... until you aren't. Again, my first reaction to the news was Broberg gone, Holloway retained.

Armstrong didn't even have the collateral required until when the offer sheets were made. The LTIR move in mid-July a clear warning as a viable risk with a guy who you went into deep trade discussions with at trade deadline.

A pro-active approach with Broberg negotiations and fielding trade offers could have maintained team leverage to negotiate a worst case scenario - trading a coveted young NHL ready d-man. Similar with Holloway.

It's their mistakes to make though. This was both opportunity and money based decisions and mixed signals from the team that drafted them. Broberg's about a million dollars over average NHL salary for defensemen. His upside is well beyond that. In his career development it's an aggressive move to play and prove himself with money secured but that will follow a big, puck moving d-man at age 25 peak performance years. And the Blues cap situation looks favourable with smart planning as a couple old, expensive d-men move off their cap along with others over the next two - three years. Bold move with limited downside of a walkaway of 1/3 salary after one year and a marginal draft pick.

Contenders can't pay players ion Broberg's situation anywhere close to that number. Even matching it after the Ceci deal would have meant that Kane had to be on LTIR for the duration or you would have to move another significant piece.

Again even at $1.3M and $1.8M the Oilers with Ceci gone the Oilers would have had no cap flexibility. This would have meant putting pretty much all your eggs in these two taking a big step forward this year. In the case of a defenseman, it is very rare for a guy with 100 NHL games to take that step.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

Before this there were only two successful offer sheets signed in the salary cap era, and both of them involved a 1st round pick going back the other way (and one of those was a major overpay done for revenge). The fact we put ourselves in a position where we'd lose our RFAs for only a 2nd/3rd round pick is simply a screw-up by management.

 

[McDrai]

I wonder if these 2 get boo’d or not at future home games. And if so, which player gets boo’d the most out of the 2

 

[FlameChampion]

I fully agree with this. I think a lot of people are looking at the team and thinking we are in worse shape then when the playoffs ended but I think there is a good chance we are actually better.

I mentioned this earlier or in another thread but the Ceci trade is something that has confused me. People love to rip on him but he’s well liked in the room and a serviceable 18-20 a night defender at a time when the team has lost two other bottom roster defenders. It seems strange that they would trade him if they weren’t matching the offer sheets just to have the cap space to leverage more out of STL. I’m guessing that some voices in the organization like Emberson and this deal was targeting him with the benefit of shedding cap and creating negotiating leverage. Could be they believe Emberson’s game fits better then Ceci in that role and if he can stay healthy and on a better team with better structure he could continue to trend upwards.

I think they moved Ceci because they don’t know when Kane will be coming back. They probably know he won’t be out all year. Its harder to make a trade in November-December if he’s coming back early and probably just smarter setting the roster at training camp. They are trying to be proactive. They might also not fully trust Kanes camp to play the LTIR game.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It's not imperative, at least I don't think so. If they come out of the gates like they did last year it's 100% on the players and it won't matter who they could have or should have added in the summer.

Obviously I could be wrong, but it really smells like another Ekholm kind of move coming for the blueline.

I never prescribe to the "it has to be right now" mentality. Team literally gets better every year, and JJ has done absolutely nothing to make me doubt he doesn't have a plan.

They can't afford another slow start to the year. Everyone sans Kane should be healthy, but I'd still rather not wait and get into a bidding war with teams who have more and better assets to offer.

Last year taught us that if we fall behind it's extremely hard to catch up. Not even a 16 game winning streak was enough to catch Vancouver and home ice is so, so important in the Finals.

 

[GOilers88]

They can't afford another slow start to the year. Everyone sans Kane should be healthy, but I'd still rather not wait and get into a bidding war with teams who have more and better assets to offer.

Last year taught us that if we fall behind it's extremely hard to catch up. Not even a 16 game winning streak was enough to catch Vancouver and home ice is so, so important in the Finals.

If they have a start like last year they should be skewered by fans and media, this coming from a guy who hates seeing people rag on our players.