Truthfully I really believe that $1.2M would have been a reasonable opening offer for Broberg historically perhaps settling in at $1.5M or so. For me a decent comparator would be Timothy Liljegren. Liljegren was probably slightly more established when he signed is 2 year $1.4M deal. Of course the cap was less then but Liljegren is also RHD which carries a premium. Over $4M for Broberg was not in the cards for any contender, least of which the Oilers. But it seems that Broberg had something like that in his pocket from very early on.
The cap is indeed poised to rise a lot. But that is part of the reason why I think looking to get paid now was a mistake for both players. These were not 8 year deals being negotiated. Next year and to a lesser degree 2026-27 are key years for the Oilers with the cap manageable but tight. After that things really open up. Both players could have been poised to take advantage of teh cap opening up just as they may well have stablished a lot more value to the team in terms of keeping the window open.
I'm not disagreeing or ever have about opening low on a restricted free agent. You're essentially negotiating against yourself ... until you aren't. Again, my first reaction to the news was Broberg gone, Holloway retained.
Armstrong didn't even have the collateral required until when the offer sheets were made. The LTIR move in mid-July a clear warning as a viable risk with a guy who you went into deep trade discussions with at trade deadline. EDIT: Adding that in so doing Oilers can bluff directly to GM's and player camp an intention to match any offer for a kid coming off his late playoff coming out party. Assert your leverage to control the outcome.
A pro-active approach with Broberg negotiations and fielding trade offers could have maintained team leverage to negotiate a worst case scenario - trading a coveted young NHL ready d-man. Similar with Holloway.
It's their mistakes to make though. This was both opportunity and money based decisions and mixed signals from the team that drafted them. Broberg's about a million dollars over average NHL salary for defensemen. His upside is well beyond that. In his career development it's an aggressive move to play and prove himself with money secured but that will follow a big, puck moving d-man at age 25 peak performance years. And the Blues cap situation looks favourable with smart planning as a couple old, expensive d-men move off their cap along with others over the next two - three years. Bold move with limited downside of a walkaway of 1/3 salary after one year and a marginal draft pick.