Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[joestevens29]

How dare he sign better players haha.

I'm not really opposed to losing Holloway as the forwards added will easily replace him, but the whole defensive side of things is what scares me.

 

[Yuke]

The closer you are to cap limit at season start means alot. So if we are 100K under then Kane goes on LTIR we can then be over the cap Kane's salary minus the 100K.

 

[North]

Sure Holland left them in a tough spot But JJ didn't care about that, he just went out and signed FAs instead of his own guys

We’re a better team with Arvidsson and Skinner. Also those signings help to make Drai happy.

 

[K1984]

How dare he sign better players haha.

Amazing how losing a few players combined with a vigor for finding the right person to blame has cause people to lose all perspective.

Arguably the biggest issue we had for the entire season last year was a rotating cast of shitty/underperforming wingers on the 2nd line. Was a problem from October 11 all the way to the Final. We address that in spades, but now we're mad that we didn't drop our pants for two players that do nothing to solve the problem, and with their salaries probably make it worse instead?

Wish we could go back in time and make a poll - Who would you rather have? Skinner and Arvidsson for a combined $7M or Holloway and Broberg for a combined $7M next year?

The results would certainly be 90%+ in the Skinner/Arvidsson camp, but now we have to pretend that was a bad move because two players got overpaid via offer sheet.

 

[Yuke]

I think McDavid and Draisaitl were clear to management after the season that they wanted more help on their wings, he didn't just randomly go out and sign guys, there was a mandate to have to improve upfront. Since Kane has become more of a non factor after the 2022 playoffs, the team has missed that scoring upfront in both of the last two playoff runs (even though we damn near won last year anyway).

Henrique is probably the deal in 50-50 hindsight you don't do, but Holland put us in a rough spot and they thought they could eek out just one year by pulling McLeod on Broberg and Holloway. It didn't work obviously. Having Derek Ryan + Holloway (?) as our bottom 6 centers would have been less than ideal.

Yup, that's is what JJ did

We’re a better team with Arvidsson and Skinner. Also those signings help to make Drai happy.

Right, pretty sure JJ knew he was gambling with the RFAs

 

[joestevens29]

We’re a better team with Arvidsson and Skinner. Also those signings help to make Drai happy.

I think re-signing Henrique was bigger for me. The guy brings a lot of versatility to his game.

Especially if and when an injury occurs, he's just a guy you can plug throughout your forward group and not look out of place.

 

[McShogun99]

I do think Broberg was intent on leaving no matter what and Ferris had a hand in orchestrating the whole scheme, I wouldn’t even be surprised if he was in Holloway’s reps ear to convince them to sign an offer sheet to further handcuff the Oilers and increase the chances the offer to his client wouldn’t be matched. It looks like Holloway might of received bad council and it kind of seems like he knows it, I’m guessing that a lot of what he was being told was that the Oilers were highly unlikely to let him walk for only a 3rd so he could have his cake and eat it too, getting paid 2x and staying with the Oilers. But as we’ve seen time and again going for the money too early can actually hurt a young question mark player in the long run. Now he finds himself in a system he could easily get lost in on a team that isn’t as attached to his development. Very real chance he ends up like so many players before him starting at the bottom of the ladder in two years searching for a job.

Like you, I agree that the mistake Oilers management made was not doing more to get Holloway under contract but when I look at the timeline and available information here is my take on the situation.

The players sides didn’t want to negotiate new deals in season when both players were still floundering, the team was likely ok with waiting until they knew where the cap was going to end up so negotiations get kicked until after the season is over and with the cup run basically butting right up against the draft/free agency time was short but by that time Armstrong had basically signalled he was going to offer sheet players and the wheels on Ferris plan were already in motion. This is where I think Oilers management made a mistake but I feel like they believed they could handle a Broberg offer sheet in that range and they likely thought Holloway wouldn’t be foolish enough to sign one let alone be a party to signing with the same team, on the same day, 6 weeks after they were free to. The big mistake I see being made my Oilers management is that at some point in the few days before July 1 it probably would of become apparent that both players were going to hold out until free agency and they should of started putting the puzzle pieces together and maybe they did and that’s why they spent how they did on day one of free agency because maybe they felt if they were going to get backed into a corner over paying some question marks then they’d rather allocate cap to established players and not miss out on adding good players at discounts in free agency because they were hoarding cap space in case of an offer sheet. Even if they don’t sign Perry, Skinner and one of Henrique/Arvidsso and had enough space to make it work, I don’t think that would of dissuaded Armstrong from still putting his plan in motion. Even if the Oilers had the space the hard decision is still there on whether it’s a good idea for a cup contender to spend 7M on a couple of question marks.

I question how realistically possible it was to get these guys signed in season or get them signed for reasonable numbers in that small window between end of finals and free agency. And the big mistake in my mind is that once you had a feeling these guys might go to free agency looking for offer sheets what they should of done at that point is start shopping both players, either in sign and trades or just as rfa’s. Would have given yourself more options but also would have forced Armstrong and Ferris hand on speeding up the timeline on their plan.

We let better bottom of the lineup players go that were making around 2 million in Mcleod, Yamamoto and Kostin. All young and with potential. Holloway thought he was to valuable to the team and they would keep him despite the slight overpay. Now he's going to a Blues team where he'll be in the bottom six with 2nd unit PP time but no real game breaking players.

 

[Yuke]

Blues were said to offer Buchnevich? for Broberg and Holloway. Glad Holland didn't make that deal as we couldn't afford to resign Buch. Now we have picks.

We let better bottom of the lineup players go that were making around 2 million in Mcleod, Yamamoto and Kostin. All young and with potential. Holloway thought he was to valuable to the team and they would keep him despite the slight overpay. Now he's going to a Blues team where he'll be in the bottom six with 2nd unit PP time but no real game breaking players.

Yamamoto, Kostin better. Now you have gone a bit to far. Yammy can be had for a mill, Kostin was traded by the Wings for nothing

 

[Yuke]

Blues have 10 (12?) 1st rounders under 25. They will be in cap he'll in a couple years

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Blues were said to offer Buchnevich? for Broberg and Holloway. Glad Holland didn't make that deal as we couldn't afford to resign Buch. Now we have picks.

I thought that was the Blues' ask, but I might wrong too.

 

[Canovin]

Blues were said to offer Buchnevich? for Broberg and Holloway. Glad Holland didn't make that deal as we couldn't afford to resign Buch. Now we have picks.


Yamamoto, Kostin better. Now you have gone a bit to far. Yammy can be had for a mill, Kostin was traded by the Wings for nothing

You take 2 years of Buch at the discounted price, Ceci and most likely a Stanley cup over 2nd, two 3rds, Fischer. The Oilers can figure out the extension later

 

[SupremeTeam16]

In hindsight I feel the same way. Maybe they could have moved a little more aggressively on Holloway but it seems clear that the #1 priority was to give the team the best chance to win sooner than later. And by signing guys like Arvidsson and Skinner I think they did more to make that happen than would have been the case by over spending on Holloway and Broberg. And I say this as a guy who really likes Holloway and who feels that Broberg could well end up as an excellent defenseman. But Holloway can pretty easily be replaced in the short run given his role and I am not sure that the Oilers could wait around for Broberg to fully emerge if he was going to get paid over $4M.

I don't think there is a single poster on our board that likes what happened. I am certainly not one. But I am heartened by the moves they made to mitigate the loss. I think it is still possible that they actually come out of this stronger when it really matters. But time will tell.

I fully agree with this. I think a lot of people are looking at the team and thinking we are in worse shape then when the playoffs ended but I think there is a good chance we are actually better.

I mentioned this earlier or in another thread but the Ceci trade is something that has confused me. People love to rip on him but he’s well liked in the room and a serviceable 18-20 a night defender at a time when the team has lost two other bottom roster defenders. It seems strange that they would trade him if they weren’t matching the offer sheets just to have the cap space to leverage more out of STL. I’m guessing that some voices in the organization like Emberson and this deal was targeting him with the benefit of shedding cap and creating negotiating leverage. Could be they believe Emberson’s game fits better then Ceci in that role and if he can stay healthy and on a better team with better structure he could continue to trend upwards.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The Oilers are under the cap with his full cap hit on the books. He could return for Game 1 or he can return at the deadline and they'd have the same amount of accrued cap space.

Basically the Oilers have made the moves that they have so that Kane's timeline and status have no effect on their cap and that they'll have a bunch of cap at the deadline to bring in players.

So if we matched Broberg we would have to clear a bunch of cap when Kane came back and we wouldn’t accrue any because we didn’t start the season under the cap?

 

[Yuke]

You take 2 years of Buch at the discounted price, Ceci and most likely a Stanley cup over 2nd, two 3rds, Fischer. The Oilers can figure out the extension later

We wouldn't of had Henrique, Broberg or Holloway for cup run

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

In hindsight I feel the same way. Maybe they could have moved a little more aggressively on Holloway but it seems clear that the #1 priority was to give the team the best chance to win sooner than later. And by signing guys like Arvidsson and Skinner I think they did more to make that happen than would have been the case by over spending on Holloway and Broberg. And I say this as a guy who really likes Holloway and who feels that Broberg could well end up as an excellent defenseman. But Holloway can pretty easily be replaced in the short run given his role and I am not sure that the Oilers could wait around for Broberg to fully emerge if he was going to get paid over $4M.

I don't think there is a single poster on our board that likes what happened. I am certainly not one. But I am heartened by the moves they made to mitigate the loss. I think it is still possible that they actually come out of this stronger when it really matters. But time will tell.

It's hindsight for us. It's a billion dollar business for the guys making the calls on win now decisions and stated Jackson day 1 vision to build a sustainable winning organization. Even with the flurry of day 1 signings, there was time and motivation to have active discussions with your two young NHL ready players. Especially with full knowledge of the Broberg relationship. Assess early and if not repairable move early to explore options on a guy coming off of a press box to Final 4 Cup contribution. Mitigate loss of your pedigree young talent in which you have invested in each more than a million dollars developing.

Lowball offers and sitting on them for a month and a half opened the door. Lots of time and money invested in two pedigree drafted players. Funny my first reaction to the offer sheets was Broberg gone and Holloway retained. To see them lose both is a very hard reality. But you can always find middle wing forwards. Young pedigree top 4 d harder and a more valuable asset.

 

[Oilhawks]

Ceci -5 and Descharnais -9 in the playoffs. Just sayin'....

Those two needed to go, and while Broberg has promise and could live up to that contract, it was not worth them taking the risk in matching it

 

[K1984]

I fully agree with this. I think a lot of people are looking at the team and thinking we are in worse shape then when the playoffs ended but I think there is a good chance we are actually better.

I mentioned this earlier or in another thread but the Ceci trade is something that has confused me. People love to rip on him but he’s well liked in the room and a serviceable 18-20 a night defender at a time when the team has lost two other bottom roster defenders. It seems strange that they would trade him if they weren’t matching the offer sheets just to have the cap space to leverage more out of STL. I’m guessing that some voices in the organization like Emberson and this deal was targeting him with the benefit of shedding cap and creating negotiating leverage. Could be they believe Emberson’s game fits better then Ceci in that role and if he can stay healthy and on a better team with better structure he could continue to trend upwards.

For Ceci I think he was moved for no reason other than the team doesn't think that Kane is going to be on LTIR for the entire year, and they wouldn't have been able to accrue LTIR space if Ceci remained.

Moving Ceci means you can add a pretty significant piece AND Kane around the deadline. I have a feeling that this move would have been made anyways.

 

[Canovin]

We wouldn't of had Henrique, Broberg or Holloway for cup run

I believe St. Louis asked for Broberg and Holloway after we traded for Henrique as our 1st was already traded. I'd take Buch over Broberg and Holloway rather easily.

 

[Soundwave]

We had to address the winger situation we were effectively trying to win a Cup with only two top 6 wingers in Hyman and RNH basically, and quite often both would be on McDavid's line.

Kane being hurt the last two playoffs took a huge bite out of the Oilers playoff top 6, in 2022 he was a big factor, but not really the last two years, if he could have been maybe we have a Cup.

 

[Fourier]

Even more reason to act pro-actively as I stated vs low ball offers to their key young players and sit on that without any movement. If the Broberg relationship was as bad or broken as coming out then move on it earlier to try to mitigate with a second offer, some vision of how he fits on the team, or in discussing move options. A favourable trade situation gives options for return (young player vs. non 1st round pick) and both teams avoid an inflationary salary jump There was a month and a half to get business done. And Jackson as a super agent (and former player) has to have a well defined sense of a player's intent.

Have said early salary movement on Holloway and trying to bridge the gap might have softened the player's resolve. Mitigate a double jeopardy situation of your worst scenario risk management planning with organizational planning. That said, Holloway looks fine and content to me with the Blues vision, paycheque, and future life in St. Lou.

This has been cap issue for sure. It's been a development issue moreso and to some extent the challenge of a mature phase team effectively onboarding young players, especially with the high volatility of the team's performance with 3 coaches in recent histories to go with playoff competition.

Big bump in cap, growing warning signs of prospective offer sheet potential notably by a GM in June who showed trade deadline interest in your two young guys, limited cap space.
Act earlier on your young talent. Especially when there's friction. Control your situation vs passivity expecting to lowball.

Got Yer Back just dropped a podcast on the situation. I think it's an interesting listen.

How high would you have gone on these two? How much do you think it would have taken to get either to sign? My guess is that the number on Broberg would have been an issue. You likely would have been forced to move Ceci but not had the cap flexibility to upgrade the 2nd pair RHD at the deadline if Broberg did not fly. At even $1.5M and $1.8M respectively the Oilers would have been on the edge of the cap even after you shipped out Ceci. Unless you knew 100% for sure that Kane was out all year by going that high on both you were pretty much tying your hopes in the roster you were starting with.

As I previously said though, I think that Broberg had a foot completely out the door. Were that the case it was probably a sooner or later issue with him. Maybe you could have just dealt him, but to be honest had you done so I doubt you would get back much more than a 2nd, a third and b level prospect with a decent if not great chance of becoming a #6 LHD down the road.

Would Holloway have signed for $1.5M? I suspect the answer is a definite yes. But I doubt that the team and the player were any further apart than is typical for such a situation. Again, this is pretty much exactly how things go with almost every contender dealing with developing prospects. My guess is that if he was not being used as a pawn in the Broberg affair he signs for something like $1.2M and everyone including the paler ends up happy.

 

[ottawah]

Ceci -5 and Descharnais -9 in the playoffs. Just sayin'....

Ceci -8 with Nurse, + 3 without him.

Just sayin'.....

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Ceci -8 with Nurse, + 3 without him.

Just sayin'.....

What was nurse away from Ceci?

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I believe St. Louis asked for Broberg and Holloway after we traded for Henrique as our 1st was already traded. I'd take Buch over Broberg and Holloway rather easily.

They never would have been able to extend Buch though, so basically you are given up your two most promising guys at two different positions for one fwd that is essentially an extended rental that you would eventually lose for nothing, not to mention even if the blues were retaining half they probably still needed someone else to take a portion of Buch contract for this year as well which would of cost additional assets. At least with the picks and cap space you have options to parlay that into immediate help that you might have a better chance of keeping around beyond this season.

 

[ottawah]

What was nurse away from Ceci?

Eyeballling it -1.

 

[Fourier]

I fully agree with this. I think a lot of people are looking at the team and thinking we are in worse shape then when the playoffs ended but I think there is a good chance we are actually better.

I mentioned this earlier or in another thread but the Ceci trade is something that has confused me. People love to rip on him but he’s well liked in the room and a serviceable 18-20 a night defender at a time when the team has lost two other bottom roster defenders. It seems strange that they would trade him if they weren’t matching the offer sheets just to have the cap space to leverage more out of STL. I’m guessing that some voices in the organization like Emberson and this deal was targeting him with the benefit of shedding cap and creating negotiating leverage. Could be they believe Emberson’s game fits better then Ceci in that role and if he can stay healthy and on a better team with better structure he could continue to trend upwards.

I am pretty sure that Ceci was moved now to gain cap flexibility later. Any move to upgrade the second pair RHD would almost surely mean moving Ceci. As a rental he'd be too expensive without retention to move to a playoff contender at the deadline for the role he'd probably play. And for a non-contender, what is the incentive to take on a guy like Ceci at that point in the year. At least now SJ gets him for a whole season to work with their kids and maybe even build enough of a relationship that he stays on as a cheap veteran RHD. It may well be the case that they thought that it would be cheaper to move Ceci now than in the future. Plus don't rule out the possibility that they get him back at the deadline on a double retention deal, perhaps even as a #5/6 at league minimum.

At worst I think they see Emberson as a reasonable, but much cheaper stop-gap.