Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[Soundwave]

When we needed scoring punch in games 1,2,3,7 NOBODY on the team was scoring and even the superstars we have eating up all the minutes on the PP. Thats why we lost the SC final, our guns weren't going. Again the vast majority of our goals in SC final were scored by bottomsix guys.

It was even those bottom guys that got the team going in game 4 and finally scoring some goals in the series. They're all gone now.

Barkov and Tkachuk weren't lights out in those games either. They won because other players can score.

Again 1 scoring winger in your top 6 ... this is supposed to be ideal?

We let teams off the hook (including Florida) because a lot of our wingers squander glorious chances (Foegele had a couple of breakaways in the Finals alone I think)?

Finish your damn scoring chances, you shouldn't have wingers that need like 3-4 glorious looks before they finally cash.

We'd probably have a Cup right now if Hyman wasn't our only actual top 6 scoring wing and someone else could've helped pick up some slack when Leon was playing with a broken finger and rib (stuff like that happens).

RNH and the current version of Kane as the supposed top 6 "support scoring" doesn't cut it if a Cup is the goal and Foegele and Holloway are not top 6 wingers.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Barkov and Tkachuk weren't lights out in those games either. They won because other players can score.

Again 1 scoring winger in your top 6 ... this is supposed to be ideal?

We let teams off the hook (including Florida) because a lot of our wingers squander glorious chances (Foegele had a couple of breakaways in the Finals alone I think)?

Finish your damn scoring chances, you shouldn't have wingers that need like 3-4 glorious looks before they finally cash.

We'd probably have a Cup right now if Hyman wasn't our only actual top 6 scoring wing and someone else could've helped pick up some slack when Leon was playing with a broken finger and rib (stuff like that happens).

RNH and the current version of Kane as the supposed top 6 "support scoring" doesn't cut it if a Cup is the goal and Foegele and Holloway are not top 6 wingers.

I seem to remember Bobo stoning every playre on this team a lot to in the games we had trouble scoring. Seems like it had something to do with it. Seems like the PP going dead cold in those losses had something to do with it. Seems like Skinner being shit in game 4 had something to do with it.

Barkov was fantastic in the games we lost.

 

[Soundwave]

I seem to remember Bobo stoning every playre on this team a lot to in the games we had trouble scoring. Seems like it had something to do with it. Seems like the PP going dead cold in those losses had something to do with it. Seems like Skinner being shit in game 4 had something to do with it.

Barkov was fantastic in the games we lost.

Game 1 is a microcosm of the Oilers not finishing their chances. The Oilers had a point blank look right to start the game (Hyman) on an unbelievable turn over by Florida and didn't cash, the Panthers score like 60 seconds later (Verhage).

This happens to this team allllllll the time. They make a AAA mistake and we let them off the hook by not making them pay for it and then of course they score the first good look they get. We give teams tons of charity, they never give us any playing so tight shit scared of McDavid/Draisaitl that they could poop a diamond.

1 actual scoring winger in your top 6 doesn't cut it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Game 1 is a microcosm of the Oilers not finishing their chances. The Oilers had a point blank look right to start the game (Hyman) on an unbelievable turn over by Florida and didn't cash, the Panthers score like 60 seconds later (Verhage).

This happens to this team allllllll the time.

Oilers winger blows a chance, other team's opportunistic winger comes down and cashes on the first high danger chance they get.

1 actual scoring winger in your top 6 doesn't cut it.

Its hockey and it happens to every team. Actually since the Jets series we lost the Oilers have been pretty good at avoiding going stone cold in playoffs. Every other team in the league has lost series in playoffs due to going stone cold in a series and including Florida. Its just the nature of hockey that sometimes the goals and scoring disappears. Oilers have been pretty resilient in fighting that and did to force it to 7 games. Panthers were the more rested and healthy team in game 7 and had it at home where they wanted it.

I think a closer truth is Skinner blowing it on shots that Bobo would stop. Margins are slim in game 7's and we didn't get all the stops we needed. Outside of a couple games where Panthers played poorly Bobo was decent in series.

 

[Soundwave]

Its hockey and it happens to every team. Actually since the Jets series we lost the Oilers have been pretty good at avoiding going stone cold in playoffs. Every other team in the league has lost series in playoffs due to going stone cold in a series and including Florida. Its just the nature of hockey that sometimes the goals and scoring disappears. Oilers have been pretty resilient in fighting that and did to force it to 7 games. Panthers were the more rested and healthy team in game 7 and had it at home where they wanted it.

I think a closer truth is Skinner blowing it on shots that Bobo would stop. Margins are slim in game 7's and we didn't get all the stops we needed. Outside of a couple games where Panthers played poorly Bobo was decent in series.

Or you could just stop letting teams off the hook and bury more of your AAA scoring chances and not be in those positions in the first place.

How many times do you ever walk out of an Oilers game going "boy, the Oilers maybe didn't have it going tonight, but they scored on basically every chance they got and were really oppurtunistic". Like nill to never. How many times do we get burned in games like that though? Plenty.

The 2006 Oilers won plenty of games were if the other team give them even half an inch, they took full advantage and scored on the few chances they got and rode that all the way to a win. This current team doesn't have that, in large part because we have too many guys on the wing who need 3-4 great looks before they can score once.

Hyman as your only real scoring winger in the top 6 isn't good enough. And even Hyman isn't a pure sniper at all, unless McDavid is feeding him total gimmes he can go into short little funks too where he can't cash.

 

[North]

Yeah I questioned this signing and the value. In hindsight should probably should have signed Holloway and Broberg first.

They did try but they didn’t want to. They wanted to wait for an offer sheet.

 

[powerserge]

Your projections of ~5% increase per season puts that cap at about $96 -$97M by the time Mcdavid is signed. So if that plays out (and it might not...could be less based on economic projections) then we are still at best around 52-53% of the cap for 4 players.
That includes Darnell Nurse and his albatross contract as well.
Not exactly an effective use of resources when you have a little over $47 -$48M to fill out 18 roster spots.
Throw in 4 - $5-$6M players and now we are looking at approx $24 - $28M for 14 roster spots.
The kicker...one of those $9M+ roster spots (part of the original 52-53%) is being used on a player that is no better than a 2nd pairing dman. That is something this team just cant afford.
Not exactly a recipe for success.

Agreed. If our core was younger would be more inclined to go ahead. We have plenty of 5-6 mil guys in their 30's already, signed long term. Signing McD/Drai entering their 30's to huge deals and taking up all that cap as you say with an older team is not the best. NHL is not the same, we have stronger, faster players. Younger players have more juice in the tank than older players. Older players are more prone to injuries. We were the oldest team in the league last year and now that Foe/Clouder/Bro/Holly are all gone we are much older by a mile.

Lost 2 good young players due to be being capped strapped as is, not going to get any better with the new contracts. You don't see Detroit not leaving enough cap "just in case" on Seider and Raymond... because their cap is more spread out.

Let's hope our stars given they want to play together, their age and wanting to win together will take lesser contracts. It really is up to them, go for the $ or increase or decrease your chances at winning depending on those decisions.

Example given is the Pens (from fourier) from years ago at almost 50% of the cap, as I showed earlier and no matter how much it is frowned upon, most teams win the cup paying around 40-44% of their cap to the top 4 guys. Does it matter what the rest of the team is composed of, sure. Since 2005, that's the way it has been, nice sample size. Can we win with the 4 guys at 50%+, sure, but would be very uncommon though. Do older teams win when the league just gets bigger/stronger/faster? That's uncharted territory. Add to this, goalies are better, so much more skill in the league even compared to 5-7 years ago.

Would rather spread the cap around, find a way to get younger, increase our chances at playoffs/cups. We could not even keep Ceci this year, even with Holly/Broberg gone, even with McD/Drai on value deals. Cap is better spread out so we have some wingers for Drai now. Enjoy it while we can if our top guys go for the $.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Concerned we have lost too much speed this off season. As frustratingly inconsistent as McLoed and Foegele were, losing them alongside Holloway and Broberg does not bode well especially in that bottom 6.

A decade of poor drafting, development and frittering away draft picks for poor veteran return (Ekholm notwithstanding) and losing too many young players may come home to roost right in the middle of the window.

Chiarelli and Holland will continue to haunt this team for many more years to come from their poor decision making and misreads.

Katz made a monumental mistake putting Nickyburger in charge of the most important decisions in team history.

JJ has a lot of repair work to do and am surprised he misread the rising cap as it pertained to young RFA’s and potential offer sheets and prioritized elder statesmen over locking in young players - mind you the Broberg ship sailed months ago, he wasn’t going to re-sign and I don’t blame him, but losing Holloway hurts.

Concerning that the scenario is set to repeat with our future RFA’s.

 

[ujju2]

Concerned we have lost too much speed this off season. As frustratingly inconsistent as McLoed and Foegele were, losing them alongside Holloway and Broberg does not bode well especially in that bottom 6.

A decade of poor drafting, development and frittering away draft picks for poor veteran return (Ekholm notwithstanding) and losing too many young players may come home to roost right in the middle of the window.

Chiarelli and Holland will continue to haunt this team for many more years to come from their poor decision making and misreads.

Katz made a monumental mistake putting Nickyburger in charge of the most important decisions in team history.

JJ has a lot of repair work to do and am surprised he misread the rising cap as it pertained to young RFA’s and potential offer sheets and prioritized elder statesmen over locking in young players - mind you the Broberg ship sailed months ago, he wasn’t going to re-sign and I don’t blame him, but losing Holloway hurts.

Concerning that the scenario is set to repeat with our future RFA’s.

Agreed. I guess what I'll say though is that we might be overstating any speed issues in the bottom 6. Looks something like this to me:

Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan/Hamblin-Perry?

If we had Holloway, he'd be replacing Podkolzin. While I love Holloway, Podkolzin's not a huge step back footspeed-wise (no pun intended). Janmark and Brown are also plenty fast. The ones with weaker speed are Henrique, Ryan, and Perry.

Henrique is an obvious upgrade in ability from McLeod or whoever else would have played 3C, so him being a bit slower doesn't concern me much (especially with faster wingers). I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamblin beat out Ryan in camp, and as for Perry, not only do we have guys like Savoie to push, but also I think he draws out of the lineup as soon as Kane is healthy. Might end up being something like this:

Kane-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Hamblin-Podkolzin

which in my opinion definitely isn't too slow a bottom-6.

 

[Soundwave]

Concerned we have lost too much speed this off season. As frustratingly inconsistent as McLoed and Foegele were, losing them alongside Holloway and Broberg does not bode well especially in that bottom 6.

A decade of poor drafting, development and frittering away draft picks for poor veteran return (Ekholm notwithstanding) and losing too many young players may come home to roost right in the middle of the window.

Chiarelli and Holland will continue to haunt this team for many more years to come from their poor decision making and misreads.

Katz made a monumental mistake putting Nickyburger in charge of the most important decisions in team history.

JJ has a lot of repair work to do and am surprised he misread the rising cap as it pertained to young RFA’s and potential offer sheets and prioritized elder statesmen over locking in young players - mind you the Broberg ship sailed months ago, he wasn’t going to re-sign and I don’t blame him, but losing Holloway hurts.

Concerning that the scenario is set to repeat with our future RFA’s.

They're gonna have to keep tabs on the open market now and try and find Kostin like reclaimation projects. I guess Podkolzin is one try at that.

You can also ice a younger roster, there's no law that says you have to keep trotting Perry and Ryan out there.

Skinner McDavid Hyman
Podkolzin Draisaitl Arvidsson
Janmark RNH Brown
Kane Henrique Savoie

Could be a roster down the line this season.

 

[McShogun99]

Agreed. I guess what I'll say though is that we might be overstating any speed issues in the bottom 6. Looks something like this to me:

Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan/Hamblin-Perry?

If we had Holloway, he'd be replacing Podkolzin. While I love Holloway, Podkolzin's not a huge step back footspeed-wise (no pun intended). Janmark and Brown are also plenty fast. The ones with weaker speed are Henrique, Ryan, and Perry.

Henrique is an obvious upgrade in ability from McLeod or whoever else would have played 3C, so him being a bit slower doesn't concern me much (especially with faster wingers). I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamblin beat out Ryan in camp, and as for Perry, not only do we have guys like Savoie to push, but also I think he draws out of the lineup as soon as Kane is healthy. Might end up being something like this:

Kane-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Hamblin-Podkolzin

which in my opinion definitely isn't too slow a bottom-6.

Ryan and Perry won't be everyday players next season anyways.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Agreed. I guess what I'll say though is that we might be overstating any speed issues in the bottom 6. Looks something like this to me:

Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan/Hamblin-Perry?

If we had Holloway, he'd be replacing Podkolzin. While I love Holloway, Podkolzin's not a huge step back footspeed-wise (no pun intended). Janmark and Brown are also plenty fast. The ones with weaker speed are Henrique, Ryan, and Perry.

Henrique is an obvious upgrade in ability from McLeod or whoever else would have played 3C, so him being a bit slower doesn't concern me much (especially with faster wingers). I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamblin beat out Ryan in camp, and as for Perry, not only do we have guys like Savoie to push, but also I think he draws out of the lineup as soon as Kane is healthy. Might end up being something like this:

Kane-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Hamblin-Podkolzin

which in my opinion definitely isn't too slow a bottom-6.

Yeah, Ryan and Perry concern me. I don’t know anything about Podkast. Henrique isn’t a speedster either but a smart veteran. I think we’ll miss that zone breaking speed from the 3 departed though. I’m sure Ryan will be a 13/14 guy come playoff time after the TDL.

 

[Fourier]

Agreed. If our core was younger would be more inclined to go ahead. We have plenty of 5-6 mil guys in their 30's already, signed long term. Signing McD/Drai entering their 30's to huge deals and taking up all that cap as you say with an older team is not the best. NHL is not the same, we have stronger, faster players. Younger players have more juice in the tank than older players. Older players are more prone to injuries. We were the oldest team in the league last year and now that Foe/Clouder/Bro/Holly are all gone we are much older by a mile.

Lost 2 good young players due to be being capped strapped as is, not going to get any better with the new contracts. You don't see Detroit not leaving enough cap "just in case" on Seider and Raymond... because their cap is more spread out.

Let's hope our stars given they want to play together, their age and wanting to win together will take lesser contracts. It really is up to them, go for the $ or increase or decrease your chances at winning depending on those decisions.

Example given is the Pens (from fourier) from years ago at almost 50% of the cap, as I showed earlier and no matter how much it is frowned upon, most teams win the cup paying around 40-44% of their cap to the top 4 guys. Does it matter what the rest of the team is composed of, sure. Since 2005, that's the way it has been, nice sample size. Can we win with the 4 guys at 50%+, sure, but would be very uncommon though. Do older teams win when the league just gets bigger/stronger/faster? That's uncharted territory. Add to this, goalies are better, so much more skill in the league even compared to 5-7 years ago.

Would rather spread the cap around, find a way to get younger, increase our chances at playoffs/cups. We could not even keep Ceci this year, even with Holly/Broberg gone, even with McD/Drai on value deals. Cap is better spread out so we have some wingers for Drai now. Enjoy it while we can if our top guys go for the $.

Again, you are using the sum of the salaries of the top 4 players as some magic formula. In this case, one flaw is that that Oilers top three of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard are simply better than the other teams top three. The closest trio today is McKinnon, Rantanen and Makar who will be only a few million less than the Oiler trio.

The second flaw is that I don't see a lot of teams with a forward who scored 79 goals over the regular season and playoffs combined on a $5.5M deal. In fact, here is the list of players who have averaged more than 40 goals per year over the last two years who make less than $9.5M.

Zack Hyman

Which contenders have a defenseman as good as Ekholm making what these days is #3 money. Then add Nuge at $5.125M. And all of a sudden your top 7 are making no more than other teams top 7 relative to the cap. Colorado is paying Casey Middlestad more than both Nuge and Hyman. A broken Landeskog has a $7M cap hit and Nichushkin is at $6.125M.

The way you manage your cap is to get your best players signed with as many good contracts as possible. The reality is that a fast rising cap will make all 6 of these top 7 contracts good to great value for the money. The fact is they have one bad contract and even that one is often over stated. Nurse these days is probably a $7M defenseman.

 

[Mr Positive]

Ryan and Perry won't be everyday players next season anyways.

I do wonder about that 4c spot. Maybe someone like Pederson or a prospect makes the team this year. Can Savoie do it? I heard he's more of a winger

 

[The Nuge]

I do wonder about that 4c spot. Maybe someone like Pederson or a prospect makes the team this year. Can Savoie do it? I heard he's more of a winger

That’s my biggest concern looking at the lineup. We all know we need a 2RD, and that will almost guaranteed be the deadline addition, but with McLeod and Holloway gone, 4C is suddenly looking weak too. Ryan is soon to be 38, and declining. Hamblin and Jarventie are probably our next best options. I’d like to add a guy like Tyler Johnson or Ryan Johansen (if he can get healthy)

 

[Fourier]

That’s my biggest concern looking at the lineup. We all know we need a 2RD, and that will almost guaranteed be the deadline addition, but with McLeod and Holloway gone, 4C is suddenly looking weak too. Ryan is soon to be 38, and declining. Hamblin and Jarventie are probably our next best options. I’d like to add a guy like Tyler Johnson or Ryan Johansen (if he can get healthy)

It's not ideal but the Oilers could run an extra winger and alternate McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, and Henrique in that spot.

Tyler Johnson on a $1M or less deal would be very good.

 

[guymez]

Again, you are using the sum of the salaries of the top 4 players as some magic formula. In this case, one flaw is that that Oilers top three of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard are simply better than the other teams top three. The closest trio today is McKinnon, Rantanen and Makar who will be only a few million less than the Oiler trio.

The second flaw is that I don't see a lot of teams with a forward who scored 79 goals over the regular season and playoffs combined on a $5.5M deal. In fact, here is the list of players who have averaged more than 40 goals per year over the last two years who make less than $9.5M.

Zack Hyman

Which contenders have a defenseman as good as Ekholm making what these days is #3 money. Then add Nuge at $5.125M. And all of a sudden your top 7 are making no more than other teams top 7 relative to the cap. Colorado is paying Casey Middlestad more than both Nuge and Hyman. A broken Landeskog has a $7M cap hit and Nichushkin is at $6.125M.

The way you manage your cap is to get your best players signed with as many good contracts as possible. The reality is that a fast rising cap will make all 6 of these top 7 contracts good to great value for the money. The fact is they have one bad contract and even that one is often over stated. Nurse these days is probably a $7M defenseman.

Why would you limit this to a top 3 when there will be 4 players earning in excess of $9M?

 

[Fourier]

Why would you limit this to a top 3 when there will be 4 players earning in excess of $9M?

I am aware of Nurse's deal. But there is nothing magical about the top 4 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10. Fixating on the top four salaries only ignores the fact that it is the sum of all contracts that matter. The point being that the quality of the Oilers top three together with contracts of Hyman, Nuge and Ekholm is what allows the Oilers to have Nurse at $9.25M, to pay the top guys and still be a legitimate contender.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah, Ryan and Perry concern me. I don’t know anything about Podkast. Henrique isn’t a speedster either but a smart veteran. I think we’ll miss that zone breaking speed from the 3 departed though. I’m sure Ryan will be a 13/14 guy come playoff time after the TDL.

I want Ryan in Bako to help with the young guys. I don't see value for him in the everyday lineup. We not only lost speed but we are also softer than baby shit up front.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I want Ryan in Bako to help with the young guys. I don't see value for him in the everyday lineup. We not only lost speed but we are also softer than baby shit up front.

This is why Kane is so important for our lineup.

Who else in our forward group hits to hurt?

I wish San Jose had a retention slot.

I'd like to get kostin back.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

This is why Kane is so important for our lineup.

Who else in our forward group hits to hurt?

I wish San Jose had a retention slot.

I'd like to get kostin back.

100% on Kostin, we could maybe add another team to retain and give them a prospect for their troubles? If not, Matt Martin is still unsigned.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

100% on Kostin, we could maybe add another team to retain and give them a prospect for their troubles? If not, Matt Martin is still unsigned.

Yeah, id be fine adding Martin, just would prefer Kostin because we know he fits here, the fans loved him, and his better offensively with one hell of a shot.

And I say this as someone who was glad we didnt keep him with what he got paid by Detroit.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Yeah, id be fine adding Martin, just would prefer Kostin because we know he fits here, the fans loved him, and his better offensively with one hell of a shot.

And I say this as someone who was glad we didnt keep him with what he got paid by Detroit.

The problem is that I think that he did well with SJ so they may not want to move him.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The problem is that I think that he did well with SJ so they may not want to move him.

He's also good to deter people from messing with the young guys they're bringing along.

 

[guymez]

I am aware of Nurse's deal. But there is nothing magical about the top 4 vs 3 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10. Fixating on the top four salaries only ignores the fact that it is the sum of all contracts that matter. The point being that the quality of teh Oilers top three together with contracts of Hyman, Nuga na Ekholm is what allows the Oilers to have Nurse at $9.25M, to pay the top guys and still be a legitimate contender.

Its not about whats magical or about fixating on the top 4.
Although you seem intent on making this about a top 3 when none of your examples included a player like Nurse. A player who is in the first teir of contracts and should be in the 2nd tier of contracts.

Yes Hyman was a value contract but he had an obvious career year last season. Will that continue at the same rate this season...likely not.
Will Ekholm (who will be 35 years old before the playoffs start) continue to perfom a like a top pairing Dman this season?
Maybe. There could likely be a dropoff there too.
RNH hasnt really been a value contract when you take out the outlier that was 2022/23.
With that outlier removed the last 5 seasons he has averaged 56 points.
Ekholm will be a UFA in 2026 so they potentially will have to replace a very cheap top pairing Dman with a more expensive player to fill that top pairing LHD role as well.
There will still be 4 players in the 2nd teir once McDavid signs.
So as i have said previously...4 players in each tier.

So really its about what the team has dedicated to 2 levels of contracts as it pertains to the cap.
The Oilers will have 4 players in excess of $9M. McDavid, Drai, Bouchard and Nurse.
That in all liklihood could possibly total to just under $50M as McDavid could easily make $15M and I see no logical reason to pay Bouchard less than Nurse on his next contract.
The next Tier has Hyman, RNH, Ekholm and the 4th player will be Stuart Skinner who will be an RFA when McDavid 1st year of his new contract.

In addition I also dont for a second think thats its a foregone conclusion that the cap is going to keep going up (the short term world wide economic realities suggest otherwise...but thats a conversation for a different thread).

The point is when you factor in both tiers of players (which is where my focus is) that likely puts this team over $70M.
So the remaining roster (18 players) has to be completed with ~ $26M available.
Many of those players are going to require $3M/$2M contracts and this team doesnt have a lot of dmen in the system who will take up League minimum contracts.

So the example you put forth dont really provide an accurate comparble to the situation this team is looking at and I completely disagree with your assertion that the Nurse contract is irrelevant.
IMO its going to be very relevant.