Speculation: Offseason Roster Building Thread - Trades, Signings, Rumors

[GoldiFox]

Wild fan here, wondering if Pominville to Carolina might be a fit.

My logic:
Pominville is still a productive top 9 player, but his role has been severely reduced due to development from Granlund/Coyle at RW. He put up 50 points with mostly 3rd line minutes and limited PP minutes. He's overpaid by probably a million or 1.5 million, but he's still has value.

But, the flip side to that is July 1st the Wild will pay out a 2.5 million signing bonus, meaning his final two years he's due only 7.5 million (3.75 avg salary). Given Carolina isn't close to the cap, the cap hit is probably mostly irrelevant for two years.

Judging by a few of the posts, there appears to be a need at RW, and my impression is Carolina is looking to step out of their rebuild into competitiveness and could use the scoring. Kind of makes a lot of sense to me.

Thoughts? I can't imagine the return would be huge. 2nd or 3rd and B prospect?

Is it fair to assume Pominville is a 50 point guy when he put up only 34 points last season (15-16) on a decent offensive team? I think that's closer to what he'd look like on the Canes and at 35 further decline should be expected.

I'm not interested unless Dumba, Spurgeon or Brodin comes with him in a bigger deal.

 

[GoldiFox]

Sorry to be the second Central-division team dropping by sniffing around for trades, but I wonder what on the Blues' roster / prospect pool might be appealing for Nicolas Roy? I honestly don't know a whole lot about him, so I apologize if that's violating some level of affection you guys might have for him. He seems like a very "Blues-y" player, and we have a big need for right-handed centermen. You guys seem to be relatively set on defense, so I'm not sure what we've got that would appeal to you necessarily, but then again I don't know much about your needs. We have an overabundance of pretty solid middle-6 forward vets, if that kind of thing appeals to you at all (Perron, Berglund, Lehtera, Sobotka, etc.).

P.S. we tried to warn you about Rattie

Perhaps the Canes biggest need right now is a big forward with some finishing ability who can man the crease. This is one of Nic Roy's specialties and from what I have heard, Peters likes him more than Gauthier. Little chance Roy is moved.

 

[geehaad]

Uhm, gang? Eric Staal is a much better player to trade for than Jason Pominville. Much better offensively, a big center, less money...

And I don't want Eric Staal back here.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Is it fair to assume Pominville is a 50 point guy when he put up only 34 points last season (15-16) on a decent offensive team? I think that's closer to what he'd look like on the Canes and at 35 further decline should be expected.

I'm not interested unless Dumba, Spurgeon or Brodin comes with him in a bigger deal.

I suppose the answer to that question depends on how big of a believer in luck you are with regards to hockey.

All of Pominville's underlying numbers have been within a normal range for the past 3 seasons. Shot rate's, possession numbers, everything has been roughly the same.

Last year he shot 4.64%at 5v5 and had an on ice shooting percentage just under 7%. Both career lows, and basically unsustainably low. His percentages rebounded this year back to a normal range, and he went back to scoring at his normal pace (with reduced ice time due to Granlund/Coyle improvement).

With top 9 minutes, he's probably a 45-55 point guy depending upon icetime and pp usage.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Sorry to be the second Central-division team dropping by sniffing around for trades, but I wonder what on the Blues' roster / prospect pool might be appealing for Nicolas Roy? I honestly don't know a whole lot about him, so I apologize if that's violating some level of affection you guys might have for him. He seems like a very "Blues-y" player, and we have a big need for right-handed centermen. You guys seem to be relatively set on defense, so I'm not sure what we've got that would appeal to you necessarily, but then again I don't know much about your needs. We have an overabundance of pretty solid middle-6 forward vets, if that kind of thing appeals to you at all (Perron, Berglund, Lehtera, Sobotka, etc.).

P.S. we tried to warn you about Rattie

I think at this point I'd be happier doing the Pominville trade above than trading Roy for one of the above. One middle six guy does appeal to us, our shopping list this year is a top 6er and a middle 6er, but if something like that Pominville trade is available I'd rather trade a 2nd or 3rd than Roy.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Uhm, gang? Eric Staal is a much better player to trade for than Jason Pominville. Much better offensively, a big center, less money...

And I don't want Eric Staal back here.

I do...

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Perhaps the Canes biggest need right now is a big forward with some finishing ability who can man the crease. This is one of Nic Roy's specialties and from what I have heard, Peters likes him more than Gauthier. Little chance Roy is moved.

I figured as much. I would definitely say that Perron and Berglund are good net front presences (Perron suprisingly so), and are very effective playing a two-way game. They're both on relatively friendly contracts (Perron's is a lot shorter than Bergie's). So, I guess it depends on if you're willing to wait the couple of years for Roy to get up to speed, or if you are wanting to go for the vets that get it done today. Carolina, in the little I know about your team, seems committed to the youth movement, so I'm assuming the longview is cool with you guys, but I figured it was worth asking anyways.

 

[Roboturner913]

Not to nitpick but Pominville had 36 points the year prior, not 34.

I say that mainly because of the 1 million = 10 points rule of thumb, so if we were paying him 3.75 million, that wouldn't be so bad. Assuming he played closer to the 47 points he had last year than the previous year (and my goodness he really has had some abnormally low, Elias Lindholm-type shooting percentages the last couple years), it could be a solid bargain for a better player than Stempniak has really ever been.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jason-pominville

While Pominville would only cost $2.5 mil in 17-18 after the bonus is paid, he would come in at a hefty $5 mil in 18-19. That is problematic with Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin and Lindholm needing new contracts that kick in at that point. Not saying that prevents a deal, but the Raleigh cap dump won't be open for much longer; the Canes need to be careful about how they spend what they have available to spend.

 

[raynman]

Agree on the righty, but I think it's going to be very tough to find what we want. We want a veteran, "decent" defenseman who can skate, who is a righty and we don't want to pay more than a 3rd pairing salary for. Does that exist?

Here is a list of some of the RD available as UFAs:
Wideman
Shattenkirk
M. Stone
Franson
Michalek
Engelland
Polak
T. Gilbert
Quincey
Hunwick
Gryba
Postma
Tennyson
McBain
Prosser

Another option, what if RF can trade for a guy that a team will lose in the expansion draft (not necessarily him, but like a Vantanen for instance). I get that getting a guy like that seems like overkill for a 3rd pairing, but we will have some injuries and it gives us a lot of flexibility. Going to be interesting to see what he does, but I'm guessing the veteran D will come via UFA and be less than ideal.

I've been wondering about a RHD as well. I can't remember if it was in this thread but I was thinking out loud about Manson from Anaheim. I'd rather Vatenen but I imagine Manson could be cheaper and easier to pry away, Carlyle does like physical guys though. Either way I think Francis going to have to look to a trade to fill that 3rd pairing RHD. Most of the guys on your UFA list are either too pricey for that roster spot, at a point in their career where they probably want to go to a contender, or just not the type of player they'd probably like.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jason-pominville

While Pominville would only cost $2.5 mil in 17-18 after the bonus is paid, he would come in at a hefty $5 mil in 18-19. That is problematic with Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin and Lindholm needing new contracts that kick in at that point. Not saying that prevents a deal, but the Raleigh cap dump won't be open for much longer; the Canes need to be careful about how they spend what they have available to spend.

This is a good point. I honestly haven't watched Pominville in awhile, and took his word for it when he said he was a 50 pt scorer (didn't know he scored 36).

I assumed the opposite, since most deals like this seem to be front-loaded.

It is a good point that this team needs to be very wary signing expensive guys for longer than this season unless they've got a significant future with the organization. Our own guys are gonna get expensive quick, and we don't have any real guys coming off the books in the near future like we did this year (whichever one of Cam/Eddie stays this year comes off the books next, as well as the final mil of Wiz and the $2.5m of Stemp). From there, it's all youngsters that are going to be ready to get paid.

For reference:

In need of new deal after 2017-2018: Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, Lindholm (>$16m, currently paid ~5.5m)

In need of new deal after 2018-2019: Skinner, Aho (>$10m, currently paid 6.7m)

So basically, in two offseasons, the roster as currently constructed will get at least $11m (likely more, those are the lowest probable numbers) more expensive than they are today, without any major contracts coming off the books.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I've been wondering about a RHD as well. I can't remember if it was in this thread but I was thinking out loud about Manson from Anaheim. I'd rather Vatenen but I imagine Manson could be cheaper and easier to pry away, Carlyle does like physical guys though. Either way I think Francis going to have to look to a trade to fill that 3rd pairing RHD. Most of the guys on your UFA list are either too pricey for that roster spot, at a point in their career where they probably want to go to a contender, or just not the type of player they'd probably like.

There's a guy on the main boards that said he'd rather get rid of Vatanen than Manson, since they've gotta get rid of one and Manson is a guy they don't have a natural replacement for. He'd definitely add some good jam to the bottom pairing.

That said, I do think this team needs a PP QB and offensive-minded guy more than a Manson-type player, especially if Fleury makes the team as the 3LD. Either one would be a welcome addition though.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

There's a guy on the main boards that said he'd rather get rid of Vatanen than Manson, since they've gotta get rid of one and Manson is a guy they don't have a natural replacement for. He'd definitely add some good jam to the bottom pairing.

That said, I do think this team needs a PP QB and offensive-minded guy more than a Manson-type player, especially if Fleury makes the team as the 3LD. Either one would be a welcome addition though.

More than 1 Ducks fan have said this. They are almost all universally in agreement that Manson will be protected, even at the expense of Vatanen

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

I would do back-flips if we could land Vatanen

 

[DougieSmash]

I like Vatanen but we really going to spend that much on third pairing pp specialist? I assume that's the role for Vatanen here. We need PP QB but our top 4 is lock as of now. 4.875 is a lot of money for third pairing dman.

 

[raynman]

There's a guy on the main boards that said he'd rather get rid of Vatanen than Manson, since they've gotta get rid of one and Manson is a guy they don't have a natural replacement for. He'd definitely add some good jam to the bottom pairing.

That said, I do think this team needs a PP QB and offensive-minded guy more than a Manson-type player, especially if Fleury makes the team as the 3LD. Either one would be a welcome addition though.

Ah, I don't really venture away from the Canes board very often but that definitely makes sense. There were rumors at the start of last season that Francis was in on Fowler. Maybe he's kept a dialogue going and could swing Vatanen?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I like Vatanen but we really going to spend that much on third pairing pp specialist? I assume that's the role for Vatanen here. We need PP QB but our top 4 is lock as of now. 4.875 is a lot of money for third pairing dman.

I think it'd give us a lot of flexibility on the right side, fill the PP QB role, and make us a better team. Additionally, after Faulk and Pesce our right side is shot, so having 3 legit right dmen makes that lack of depth less of a liability.

While he'd technically be our 3RD, I don't think we can call him "bottom pairing." 3rd pairing min plus 1st unit PP would be more like a 2nd pairing guy, and of course he can move up and down depending on the pairing on any given night.

He may be technically brought in for the 3rd pairing and to be our PP QB, as in, those are the holes in the lineup he fills, but that hardly makes him a 3rd pairing PP specialist. Adding talented guys to a lineup is always a good thing. Plus, if we really are eventually going to make a Jones-Johansen trade, adding excellent defensemen can't hurt.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

(I will add to the above that while if Vatanen fell into our lap I don't think we would be disappointed, this idea that he'd be "overkill" is a more likely reason that we'd be outbid for him, rather than a reason we wouldn't want him in the first place.)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This is a good point. I honestly haven't watched Pominville in awhile, and took his word for it when he said he was a 50 pt scorer (didn't know he scored 36).

I had to re-read AMO's post because 36 didn't seem right and I realized he wasn't talking about this past season, where Pominville had 47 points, but the season before. His last 4 seasons are 60, 54, 36, and 47.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I had to re-read AMO's post because 36 didn't seem right and I realized he wasn't talking about this past season, where Pominville had 47 points, but the season before. His last 4 seasons are 60, 54, 36, and 47.

I still haven't Googled his stats, so this helps...

 

[geehaad]

You get Vatanen and then in 2018, flip Faulk for a baller top-line Center.

 

[DougieSmash]

You won't get Vatanen for 2nd round pick and PDG.

 

[NotOpie]

You won't get Vatanen for 2nd round pick and PDG.

Maybe, maybe not....there really aren't going to be a lot of teams with extra assets to spare....PDG wouldn't be the asset that they'd want anyway. My guess is it would be a pick and an expansion protected guy.

 

[Roboturner913]

too bad Faulk's stock has dropped so much y'all, we better start thinking about trading him for some of Edmonton's trash before he totally bottoms out

 

[geehaad]

too bad Faulk's stock has dropped

And RNH's and Pulj's haven't.