Don't write Forbort off yet, he is 24, and only has 3 full AHL seasons under his belt, a lot of players, especially D men develop slower and Voynov was in the AHL for the same amount of time, he just didn't go to college first.
GDT: Offseason GDT II
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Really?
There is a difference between Toffoli & Pearson coming up and Forbort. Toffoli/Pearson showed they were better then multiple roster players, with their ability to shoot & pass. Toffoli was played with Colin Fraser on the 4th line, Pearson was still a rookie his 2nd year because Sutter couldn't find a way to fit him in the lineup.
Forbort hasn't shown a reason he should be in over Scuderi/Ehrhoff/McBain. So he made a couple of nice plays. So has Scuderi/Ehrhoff/McBain over the year. It needs to happen with more frequency.
Also arguing that Sutter prefers D with Ehrhoff/McBain's style over Forbort's is a bit of a stretch. I get where Sutter wouldn't play him over Scuderi.
A 62% Corsi for with Brown/Shore/Lewis...
It's easy. Corsi has shortcomings. It counts shots that miss the net. Brown/Shore/Lewis exceed at missing the net. When they miss the net the goalie doesn't freeze the puck so Brown/Shore/Lewis can recover it and shoot again, missing the net again... see where this is going? They have crazy Corsi numbers because the shoot the Puck all over creation. There are also the shifts where they rack up 3-4 shots from the crease where they just bank it off the goalies pads and magically it stays out. I say magically because after a full year of this the sample size is probably large enough to not be a random occurrence of bad luck. Regular season
Brown 11G 5% Shooting
Lewis 8G 4.8% Shooting
Shore 3G 3.3% Shooting
Note: I do not believe those Shooting %'s count the number of shots that miss the net. I'd like to see Brown's real shooting % including shots that miss the net.
Forbort having a good Corsi value while playing behind Brown/Shore/Lewis is exactly what happens when you play behind guys that constantly take bad/low % shots. (See their shooting %'s and compare to team shooting %'s) Brown/Shore/Lewis generate the **** out of Corsi... but they don't score... could also explain with his PDO was so low... because if you shoot the puck that much you have to get lucky at some point.
Banished back to the minors: On seeing that Forbort wasn't ready the alternatives were play him 6-10 mins a night, bench him, or play him top pairing minuets in the AHL so he can work on his game.
Edit: It's Monday...
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I will be ecstatic if Forbort ever breaks out. Right now, Forbort cracking the bottom pairing is where my hopes are at.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Really?
There is a difference between Toffoli & Pearson coming up and Forbort. Toffoli/Pearson showed they were better then multiple roster players, with their ability to shoot & pass. Toffoli was played with Colin Fraser on the 4th line, Pearson was still a rookie his 2nd year because Sutter couldn't find a way to fit him in the lineup.
Forbort hasn't shown a reason he should be in over Scuderi/Ehrhoff/McBain. So he made a couple of nice plays. So has Scuderi/Ehrhoff/McBain over the year. It needs to happen with more frequency.
Also arguing that Sutter prefers D with Ehrhoff/McBain's style over Forbort's is a bit of a stretch. I get where Sutter wouldn't play him over Scuderi.
A 62% Corsi for with Brown/Shore/Lewis...
Regular season
Brown 11G 5% Shooting
Lewis 8G 4.8% Shooting
Shore 3G 3.3% Shooting
Note: I do not believe those Shooting %'s count the number of shots that miss the net. I'd like to see Brown's real shooting % including shots that miss the net.
Forbort having a good Corsi value while playing behind Brown/Shore/Lewis is exactly what happens when you play behind guys that constantly take bad/low % shots. (See their shooting %'s and compare to team shooting %'s) Brown/Shore/Lewis generate the **** out of Corsi... but they don't score... could also explain with his PDO was so low... because if you shoot the puck that much you have to get lucky at some point.
Banished back to the minors: On seeing that Forbort wasn't ready the alternatives were play him 6-10 mins a night, bench him, or play him top pairing minuets in the AHL so he can work on his game.
Edit: It's Monday...
I didn't think I needed to say 'this year' being as that's all we've been talking about all thread. It's pretty commonly accepted that the organization didn't handle the youth properly this year. Agree or disagree?
Forbort showed enough promise that he should have gotten a better shake. Yes, he DID show more than you're giving him credit for. He also made mistakes, which, as you point out (and is emblematic of Jake Muzzin's 2013 debut) are not accurately captured in stats. In a different year, he may have HAD to stick the whole year, i.e. my Muzzin and McNabb examples as well as the small bursts of Martinez before he came up.
Re: Corsi, I guess you missed the part where I said "small sample size." but if you prefer to argue about the quality of shots rather than that, let's look at his Corsi AGAINST numbers, which were better than Drews--who was top 7 in the league in even TEAM relative stats. So it's not just Brown et al padding his stats as you suggest, he was actually suppressing shots...and half of his playing time was spent WITHOUT Drew, at which point he was even better at suppressing shots. That matched the eye test of how much ice he was eating.
He obviously has other issues to iron out, I'm not trying to paint him as a saint. I'm just trying to say summarily executing him when he hasn't gotten a full shake is premature even this relatively late in the prospect game.
I don't at all see why this is so controversial or sticky for you. It's pretty normal that 'contending' team have less prospect openings than up-and-coming/rebuilding teams. Forbort has had the 'misfortune' of being our top defensive prospect during that time, stagnating, and being passed up. Some of that is self-inflicted, some of that is opportunity. I don't think those two things are mutually exclusive as some are making it seem.
Edit: Ugh sucks to go back to his draft profile and see things like "exceptional decision making" and "size and speed and agility" when his decision making and agility (seemingly) were his biggest issues in the NHL (and when I see him in the AHL too).
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Omni Owl
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- Mar 9, 2008
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Forbort is already being surpassed by Gravel, so I've pretty much written him off already. Its ****ing frustrating seeing some of the guys that went after these picks, makes me wonder what the **** exactly are the scouts looking at and why they still have their jobs. Our picks have been absolute garbage for awhile now. The Teubert and Hickey picks still bother me.
The Tikkanen
Pest
I would say Forbort is playing much better than Gravel right now in the AHL playoffs.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
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Because you'll probably find some other player, with some other pick, which some other team missed on. Out of 210 players that get drafted, 50-60 of them will probably play for at least a couple years. 30 might play for half a dozen years. 30 players is an entire 1st round, yet teams have missed on 1st overall picks, or 2nd or 3rd. So a miss at #12, or #20, and certainly lower, is not only possible, but likely.
How do so many teams miss out on Jamie Benn? Including Dallas, which picked 4 guys ahead of him, 3 of which have never sniffed the NHL. They had back to back picks, and picked Austin Smith at 128. Why? Why not pick Benn at 128? What's the difference? Benn went 129th, and the only player with a better career is the 1st overall pick.
Forbort has a better Corsi AGAINST then Doughty!
Thank god! Now we can trade Doughty and put Forbort in his place!!! Corsi has issues. Clearly you don't see them or look past it. Like Forbort having a better shot suppression then Doughty. There are probably reasons for anomalies like that, but I don't care enough to look into it because I know it's an anomaly.
I'm not trying to dump on Forbort, but he hasn't made the case as to why he should be in the NHL at this point. I don't get why people are complaining he hasn't been given a shot. He hasn't earned a roster spot. Also it's not like he's trying to break into a Regehr/Doughty, Mitchell/Voynov, Martinez/Greene defense. Forbort was trying to crack a Scudei/Doughty, Muzzin/Martinez, McNabb/(Ehrhoff/McBain) defense. The bar is really low right now for Forbort to break into the NHL. That is on him. If he can't edge Old Man Scuderi out then why does anyone care that Forbort isn't getting ice time?
Also Sutter didn't mishandle the youth this year. They didn't prove they were better options. Even Pearson. He wasn't 100% up to speed after the injury so I have no problem with Sutter not playing him in the top 6 all year. Shore showed that Lewis has a better shot. Dowd looked good, but whatever. Andy, sometimes bottom 6ers get benched. Forbort/Gravel: Clearly not ready.
People see the youth making impacts for other teams in the playoffs. They saw the impacts Toffoli/Pearson have, and they think the Kings youth can have the same impact but Sutter is holding them back. Maybe the Kings prospects this year weren't that good. Hopefully someone like Kempe/Amadio/LaDue will break out at some point. The Kings could really use the help.
As it is, the Kings pipeline has run a little dry. The lack of youth stepping up is why guys like Ehrhoff/Scuderi/VL are even on the team. Because of a lack of young cheap impact players the Kings will probably get to take a couple of "development" years where they are no longer able to compete while they wait for the next batch of prospects to come along. We'll probably get to see plenty of Forbort next year! For better or worse.
Butch 19
Go cart Mozart
Hickey at #4 is muuuuuch worse.
The Hickey pick is either DK's worst move ever, or at least in the top (bottom) 3.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
I think the Teubert pick was way worse than Hickey.
Hickey just finished his 4th straight season as an NHL player, he isn't anything amazing but he is a solid #5 d-man.
Tuebert just finished his 3rd straight season in the German league after not even being tendered by the Edmonton Oilers.
Hickey was a swing for the fences that turned into a solid single.
Tuebert was a bunt attempt that that rode up the bat and hit us in the face.
Hickey just finished his 4th straight season as an NHL player, he isn't anything amazing but he is a solid #5 d-man.
Tuebert just finished his 3rd straight season in the German league after not even being tendered by the Edmonton Oilers.
Hickey was a swing for the fences that turned into a solid single.
Tuebert was a bunt attempt that that rode up the bat and hit us in the face.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Forbort has a better Corsi AGAINST then Doughty!
Corsi has issues. Clearly you don't see them or look past it. Like Forbort having a better shot suppression then Doughty. There are probably reasons for anomalies like that, but I don't care enough to look into it because I know it's an anomaly.
Alright. When you're being snide and deliberately obtuse, EVEN WHEN I LITERALLY SAID "in a small sample size," "would like to see more," and "he obviously has other issues," it's not a discussion. Try reading the whole post next time before being smugly dismissive.
I stand by what I said, Forbort and Gravel should have gotten more of a chance, and maybe we wouldn't have been in the situation we were in going into the playoffs. I cited eye test reasons for that and backed up it with what limited stats we had.
Thrice
To Be Everywhere...
- Sep 27, 2007
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Exactly. I think it bears repeating what Lombardi and Co. did in that 2008 draft to make sure they got their guy in Teubert.
In 2008 the Kings had two 1st rounds picks #2 and #28.
Lombardi took Doughty with #2 then traded Cammalleri + 2nd in 08 (#48 overall) to the Flames for #17 in 08 and a 2nd round pick in 2009.
Lombardi then dealt #17 and #28 to Anaheim for #12.
#12 was then traded to Buffalo for #13 + 3rd round pick in 2009.
All of those moves for Teubert. He's easily the biggest bust of Lombardi's Kings career.
http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_season_team/Los_Angeles_Kings/2008-09/1
As for Forbort -
Lombardi traded #19 overall and a 2nd round pick (#59 overall) to Florida for #15 overall.
http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_season_team/Los_Angeles_Kings/2010-11/1
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
The fact that Florida moved down and still got Nick Bjugstad with that Kings pick is frustrating. He's the forward I wanted in round one that year in addition to Toffoli.
When you don't have that many 1st round selections, it really stings to see so many busts and misses when the opportunity comes.
Perhaps the Kings scouting staff is a tad bit overrated after a couple of solid years?
When you don't have that many 1st round selections, it really stings to see so many busts and misses when the opportunity comes.
Perhaps the Kings scouting staff is a tad bit overrated after a couple of solid years?
damacles1156
Registered User
- Feb 5, 2010
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If it's a small sample size, I don't understand why you're using it for reaffirming you're belief. If Forbort has numbers that are better then Doughty that's a huge red flag with the numbers.
As far as Forbort/Gravel getting more ice time. From a development standpoint sure. They may be further in their development. They didn't do a lot to earn that ice time. As in, outplay Ehrhoff/McBain to such a degree that the choice was clear. To add additional frustration the Kings blue line really needs some help and someone stepping up from the Reign would have been great.
Playoffs: The Kings needed another top 4D before Martinez got injured. There is no way Forbort &/or Gravel bail out the Kings in the playoffs. The defense was basically Doughty/Muzzin against a Sharks team that could roll 6 guys because of depth. If that series made it to a game 7, Doughty/Muzzin would be pretty much done at that point due to the ice time.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
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This is the problem with going back into what if's with the draft. If you go back to that 2 out of 7 average being a good draft for teams idea, that's 60 players in a draft. The 60th player in 2007 in terms of games played is Linus Omark. Ellerby is 35th on the list. The Kings today have 4 guys in the top 30 from that draft in games played that they drafted. That's not solid. That's great. Granted, it's Simmonds, Martinez, King, and Hickey, so it's not murderer's row or anything, and 2 aren't here anymore, but that's a lot of NHL players to get.
Similar in 2009. They have 3 from the top 30 in games played so far, but it's Clifford, Schenn, and Nolan. That's still 3 though.
They also had 20 combined picks in 2007 and 2009, both 7 round drafts. Whereas in 2010, it was 5 picks. 2011 and 2012, 6 picks each.
Could the Kings have picked better players with some of these picks? Absolutely. They could've kept them, or traded them because of the cap for a whole bunch of stuff, and gone on to be a 15 year dynasty. There's also a reason why no team ends up in that situation.
Going by 2 out of 7, if you have 10 picks in a draft, you should get 2.86 NHL players. The Kings did that in 07 and 09. If you have 5 picks in a draft, it's 1.43 NHL players. In 2010, yes, they didn't take Tarasenko, but they got Toffoli, and Forbort and Gravel still have some sort of chance to do something. In 2008, they took Teubert instead of Karlsson, had 9 picks and only ended up with 2 players, but those 2 players were top 4 defensemen on 2 Cup winning teams. Yeah, Doughty was a no brainer, but they still ended up with another top 4 defenseman, one of which is one of, if not the best player from that draft. Which sort of takes some of the sting off of not getting another guy deeper in the draft, because hey, they got Doughty.
Every team could probably take a better player with damn near every pick they have, and every draft is an imperfect science.
Papa Mocha 15
I love the smell of ice in the morning.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
because all I'm saying is I saw some positive things that made me want to see more, and there were also good stats to support that. Nothing crazier, nothing less.
And by no means am I saying either one would have been our saviors in the playoffs, but I have to think a 60-70 game seasoned Gravel/Forbort were better options than at the very least Scuderi, given our problems were skating and puck movement.
I dunno, it was pretty clear to me that just about everyone was outplaying Ehrhoff. McBain is a different animal and props to him because for the most part he played very well in his role but he barely played either, so...
I understand why Sutter rode his vets, but because it didn't help the developmental standpoint, it came back to bite us.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
What's frightening is that he was the last defenseman the team drafted who became a regular in the lineup.
The next one who has that potential is Gravel who was selected in 2010.
Guess we'll have to wait and see what becomes of him, Ladue and Cernak as they likely have the highest potential of all the dmen the Kings have selected since 2008.
The Kings were fighting for first in the division. It wasn't until a complete collapse in the playoffs that it was realized it should have been a year spent with a larger focus on development.
Guess I'm not all that worried with time on Forbort/Gravel. Forbort will get his shot next year because he's out of time. Gravel will get his shot soon after.
Ehrhoff was pretty bad. My view at the time was, might as well give the ice time to Forbort/Gravel because they might get better. Not that either one was standing out.
All this serious discussion.... Then it hits me. Kings need a RHD.
There's one UFA that no one is talking about. Justin Schultz! He's an RFA, but there is 0 chance he gets a qualifying offer at his 3.9M contract. Bam! Kings sign him to a short term "tryout" contract. How does this go bad? The best part about Forbort/Gravel... if one of them breaks out next year there's a good chance the Kings lose them in the expansion.
PJ Kings Hockey
Registered User
- Oct 15, 2013
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Re. Forbort, the staff appears higher on Forbort than Gravel. Why? His strong Corsi numbers have been brought up and also argued against. So, assuming for argument's sake that the Kings' staff is correct in their valuation of Gravel's potential contribution over Forbort's, why didn't Forbort's Corsi numbers keep him up longer/get him more recalls when they clearly valued Nick Shore's Corsi numbers (despite his lack of points) until nearly the end of the season?
True but i think Forbort also has a chance. D take longer to develope and LA has not that many draft picks in the past few years. I think this is a good drafting team and I think most do as evidence when rumors persist of Futa moving elsewhere.
Colin Miller has a chacne in Boston as does McKeown in Carolina. So the team overall drafts well...just somtimes trades the prospects which makes sense as the team is in win now mode...some thing I love.
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