Official Tank Thread of the Toronto Maple Leafs

[Anthrax442]

 

[613Leafer]

Our pending UFAs need to step it up. The way guys like Grabner, Matthias, Boyes, Reimer, etc have played, I don't see teams giving up much (or maybe nothing) for these guys.

 

[Mess]

Leafs 20 goals for in their first 10 games is the lowest Leaf total since 1965-66.

Lou Lam and Babcock just on the job for less than 6 months sure didn't inherit a lot of talent from 7 years of retooling and bottom 10 finishes prior to their arrival.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Our pending UFAs need to step it up. The way guys like Grabner, Matthias, Boyes, Reimer, etc have played, I don't see teams giving up much (or maybe nothing) for these guys.

Curious as to everyone's predictions on the TDL returns.


1. How many 1st/2nd rounders:

• 2 or greater
• 1
• Zero

2. Where will the median be:

• 1st/2nd
• 3rd/4th
• 5th rounders or lower

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

Knowing our luck, we finish last, and draft 4th. Although this is a good draft. Top 5 isn't much different over last year, just without a McDavid. 2-6 last year is pretty close to 1-5 this year.

No. We're gonna finish last. We're a terrible team. Finally. No tier talent on this team... the tanking is on. I'm confident we'll get one of the two and I'm excited.

We should suck a few more years to rebuild the prospect pool that Burke/nonis effed up. It's time!

 

[GBLeaf]

To be fair, if we finish 30th. The odds of us getting either the 1st or 2nd pick must be pretty high.

 

[hoglund]

Leafs 20 goals for in their first 10 games is the lowest Leaf total since 1965-66.

Lou Lam and Babcock just on the job for less than 6 months sure didn't inherit a lot of talent from 7 years of retooling and bottom 10 finishes prior to their arrival.

I know some won't admit it, but that shows you how much Kessel is missed, no one replaced him as our top scorer.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Today I ran it and I kid you not:

Edmonton won the Lottery
followed by Columbus and then Us


YAY!!!! 2nd time
Toronto wins the Lottery
followed by Buffalo and Columbus

Third time
Calgary wins the lottery
followed by Ducks, and Carolina

Fourth Time
Columbus, Buffalo, Calgary

and Fifth time
Edmonton Again (ugh)
Carolina and Buffalo


i have to say I really liked the one they had closer to the draft last year with all the number combinations.

 

[JEI]

Curious as to everyone's predictions on the TDL returns.


1. How many 1st/2nd rounders:

• 2 or greater
• 1
• Zero

2. Where will the median be:

• 1st/2nd
• 3rd/4th
• 5th rounders or lower

Way to early to say as market need to be set. I can assume there won't be any 1st rounders for the rentals we have. Given Rinaldo landed a 3rd rounder, you would think that would be the going rate for the ones we have?

Ask this question during a losing streak, most would say they aren't worth the money to claim them off waivers.. ask during a winning streak and these guys are returning blue chip prospects/1st rounders or needing contract extensions.

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

Oilers won't win the lottery. That's crazy luck if they do.

 

[In It 2 Winnik]

Just ran the simulator. EDM gets 1st CGY 2nd and Tampa 3rd. Us at 6th.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

No. We're gonna finish last. We're a terrible team. Finally. No tier talent on this team... the tanking is on. I'm confident we'll get one of the two and I'm excited.

We should suck a few more years to rebuild the prospect pool that Burke/nonis effed up. It's time!

I said we would finish last....

I said knowing our luck, we finish last and draft 4th... remember, new draft rules. Picks 1-3 are lotto.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Over 40 pages ... can we get a new Tank thread ?

Please put my image in the first post to kick start all the good news.

http://i64.tinypic.com/10hjes9.jpg

Good Morning Tank Nation:

What a year it has been so far. Picking up just where we left off last year ... the Tank only looks stronger. There were worries that getting rid of Phil's career low +/- may improve the team ... but those fears are clearly unfounded. Tied for 1st in the Tank Standings after 10 games was the jump start we missed last year to clinch the Tank for McDavid race, but this year's tank looks unstoppable.

Let's analyze the competition.

Columbus - wow. Clarkson. Going to be tough to beat.
Anaheim - we got 'em.
Calgary - we got 'em too.
Colorado - a serious tank contender. should make top 3 in Tank standings. My feeling ... our weak goal-tending might be the difference.
Edmonton - The McDavid effect alone will drop them out of the top 5 in the Tank Standings. My guess is they finish 9th in the West.
Buffalo - they probably need to Tank, but Rule 34 says they always beat the Leafs. That helps.
Carolina - probably top 3 Tank potential. Their bad start this year might propel them to 9th in the East. Cross your fingers.

Summary: It's happening.gif

 

[Ovate]

What order are the draft positions drawn for and announced? 1-2-3 or 3-2-1?

And how do the odds change once one team is picked? Is their probability split evenly or proportionally between the other teams?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

What order are the draft positions drawn for and announced? 1-2-3 or 3-2-1?

Likely 1-2-3. No proof though.

And how do the odds change once one team is picked? Is their probability split evenly or proportionally between the other teams?

I've looked but can't find that information !
The only percentages I see posted list the first round percentage chance of winning.

 

[Brolaf]

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

[FlareKnight]

What order are the draft positions drawn for and announced? 1-2-3 or 3-2-1?

And how do the odds change once one team is picked? Is their probability split evenly or proportionally between the other teams?

I'm going to guess they draw them for 1, 2, and 3. Then they'll announce them the same as usual in backwards order.

I don't think the odds will change at all. Like last time every team probably has a series of numbers that belong to their team. If the balls reflect that number then they win. I don't think they will pull a team after they win. Just keep on drawing. If the same team wins again they'll just toss that result and keep going until a different team wins.

At least that's how I expect it will work.

 

[KGL]

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Great site, thanks for posting!

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Yeah, first lottery is for the #1 pick.

The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Excellent site !
Our Lost 6 leads the League rignt now.

I guess the stats are:
30th - 20% OVR, 52.5% Top 3
29th - 12.5% OVR, 36.6% Top 3
28th - 12.5% OVR, 36.6% Top 3


What about if we finish in the bottom 4.
Would that mean ...
27th - 9.5% OVR, 100% Top 4 ?

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Likely 1-2-3. No proof though.


I've looked but can't find that information !
The only percentages I see posted list the first round percentage chance of winning.

Non-Playoff Team
(Fewest Pts. to Most) New Draft Lottery Odds Odds Under Former Allocation
1 20.0%
2 13.5%
3 11.5%
4 9.5%
5 8.5%
6 7.5%
7 6.5%
8 6.0%
9 5.0%
10 3.5%
11 3.0%
12 2.5%
13 2.0%
14 1.0%

They draw #1 first, than 2, 3.... Not sure how it will be televised though. I could work out the math, but not for every scenario (too much work)

 

[KGL]

How crazy would it be if San Jose and Boston both missed the playoffs and one of them won 1st overall and the other won 2nd overall. Boston owns San Jose's pick, they'd be picking 1st and 2nd...

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Excellent site !
Our Lost 6 leads the League rignt now.

I guess the stats are:
30th - 20% OVR, 52.5% Top 3
29th - 12.5% OVR, 36.6% Top 3
28th - 12.5% OVR, 36.6% Top 3


What about if we finish in the bottom 4.
Would that mean ...
27th - 9.5% OVR, 100% Top 4 ?

No..... Say we finish 2nd last.... But Edmonton, Philly, NJ win the 1-2-3 spots, then we would get 5th pick. All depends how many longer shots hit the board. We could finish 4th last, and draft 7th. 7th is the worst you can get with bottom 4 finish.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

How crazy would it be if San Jose and Boston both missed the playoffs and one of them won 1st overall and the other won 2nd overall. Boston owns San Jose's pick, they'd be picking 1st and 2nd...

Its not protected? That would be sickening. Almost as bad as Edmonton winning again

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I ran the Sim Lottery 20 times Edmonton won all 20.
How is that possible ?