Solid post. You have obviously done your homework.
Couple things
If Pearson has the type of year I think he is capable of then he will get more than Lewis got. Pearson had 12 points in 24 playoff games, which would be a little over 40 points over a full season, and that was with no PP time. I think he could be a 45-55 point guy and that would bring him over the 2m a year number quite easily.
I just don't see any way that Williams goes, unless his play were to really go into the tank this season. Maybe the Mayor was right and the plan was to trade Williams this summer, but obviously a Conn Smythe Trophy changes everything. Williams will stay a King this season and I expect the Kings to try and re-sign him for 4-5m which can happen at any time starting July 1st, 2014.
As for Stoll, well I think his market value for next summer will be right around what he makes now (think the Kings overpaid in 2012). So the question then becomes what is better for the team Stoll at the 3C for $3.5 million or Richards as the 3C for $5.75. Kopitar is going to get 8.5-9m so even with Carter's relatively cheap hit for what he brings, the Kings won't be able to commit 23-24m a year to four centers. I still feel Stoll's game better suits the 3C role, especially with his faceoff abilities and vastly better defensive play although Richards would be better insurance in case of an injury to 11 or 77 as we know Stoll has never been able to effectively play on a scoring line since he came to LA.
Think Muzzin gets a similar deal to Slava, maybe a little less since Slava had the KHL card which the Kings know Muzzin wouldn't use but still, he is going to make close to 4x what he currently does.
But good post, very well thought out and spot on that there are going to have to be some very difficult decisions made around this time next year.
Of course this all depends on what Pearson does next year, if you are right and he hits 40 points, then yea, he might get 2 mil + I don't see a long term contract right away though for him or Toffoli.
Lombardi is a huge believer in bridge deals, and for the most part, tries to get them, he gives in when he can't, ala Quick, Doughty, Brown, etc, and that might because the status of the player on the team, I think Pearson and Toffoli both get 2-3 year deals when the time comes at a reasonable rate, and it's up to them to price themselves out of LA.
I put it that way because if they price themselves out, that should mean that LA is getting 2 more Cups due to their play as well as others.
Richards vs Stoll, I think that is the decision the Kings are going to have to make, and just by virtue of contract, Stoll is the one out, Richards moves up to 3rd line C/PK/PP/ 2nd line spot duty etc, and they use Lewis as a C on the 4th line, or bring in Vey etc.
As far as Williams, I don't believe the Conn Smythe did anything but make Williams more attractive if they are going to trade him, it's a tough sell to the fans, but if you look at it, tough decisions have to be made, depending on the return of Williams, you have to make that deal no matter how tough a pill it is to swallow, I don't think anyone in CHI wanted Ladd traded after that first cup, and Ladd was a helluva lot younger I believe.
Either way, it's going to be an interesting off-season