Speculation: Official Fantasy Trade Offers/Armchair GM Thread

[Chaos2k7]

Imagine how great the goalie stats would be if they counted the blocked and missed shots too, lol.

Thats why its SOG "on goal", has been that way for 100 years.

 

[FrolikFan67]

So you are telling me that if you have an open net and you miss 10 times but score on the 11th try, your shooting percentage is 100%?

what if all 10 were blocked by an opposing player, or redirected away, or hit one of your own player? unless you leave it to a guy in the booth to look and determine whether it should be deemed a shot or not, like an umpire deciding on a hit vs an error. they've always had shots taken and more specifically shot on goal too, and by looking at both you can tell from a team perspective are they missing the net, are the shots getting blocked, are they shooting from a distance. things of that nature. but shooting % is simply just the shots that went on net. just like save % is the saves of shots on net. if a team takes 50 shots but only 1 goes on net but the goalie let it in, should his save % be spectacular or 0? at the end of the day you just worry about the shots that go on net because those are the only ones with a chance of going in.

idk, its not that important anyways

 

[Everything is fine]

Oshie needs to be a panther next season.

He's the only good UFA forward and he knows it.
We are likely looking at similar contract to Eriksson, Okposo, Lucic or Ladd.

Is Oshie worth that?

There also needs to be a decision made soon with Bjugstad with Malgin and Borgstrom. Where does he fit into this lineup?

 

[RainingRats]

Meh. It only counts shots actually hitting the net (being saved or not saved by a goalie) vs all shots taken.

Go with what you prefer.

Doesnt make sense to not include shots that miss though. It's like considering airballs in basketball as "not a missed shot."

Likewise, doesnt make sense that a shot hitting the post for example wouldnt count against your percentage.

Nah, there's a specific stat for shooting %. Doesn't matter either way because when you compare apples to apples, Oshie is at a ridiculously high % and it's obvious it will come back down to earth. 20-25 goals if all goes well for next couple of years then he'll drop to 15-20. Too much money, imo.

 

[Gentle Man]

Nah, there's a specific stat for shooting %. Doesn't matter either way because when you compare apples to apples, Oshie is at a ridiculously high % and it's obvious it will come back down to earth. 20-25 goals if all goes well for next couple of years then he'll drop to 15-20. Too much money, imo.

I think his powerplay shooting % is driving it up to be honest.

His 5 v 5 %es arent "insane."

And that accounts for 7 of his 33 goals.

Still not as ridiculous in my opinion.

 

[RogerRoger]

I think his powerplay shooting % is driving it up to be honest.

His 5 v 5 %es arent "insane."

And that accounts for 7 of his 33 goals.

Still not as ridiculous in my opinion.

I don't think so. He has less PP goals than last season.

For all of his healthy seasons, he scored between 14 and 16 goals at even strenght. He has been incredibly consistent. Last year he scored 10 more goals than his average at even strenght, that's a red flag. His PDO is at 104.9, that's an other red flag.

He's likely to go back down to 15 even strenght goal and 5 or so PP goals. Imo that's not worth 6M.

 

[Gentle Man]

I don't think so. He has less PP goals than last season.

For all of his healthy seasons, he scored between 14 and 16 goals at even strenght. He has been incredibly consistent. Last year he scored 10 more goals than his average at even strenght, that's a red flag. His PDO is at 104.9, that's an other red flag.

He's likely to go back down to 15 even strenght goal and 5 or so PP goals. Imo that's not worth 6M.

His career PDO is 101.7. So what, he will dip by 3 % points? It's overblown, and he is still a good possession player. It went up, naturally, going from the Blues to Washington.

It's Okposo money. And Oshie has produced more than Okposo.

He is worth 6.

Plus, as always, you can offer a little less being a Florida team. 5.75 x 5 > 6 X 5 everywhere else except Texas and Vegas.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Oshie will get $6mil for 6-7 years and probably won't be worth it.

 

[RogerRoger]

His career PDO is 101.7. So what, he will dip by 3 % points? It's overblown, and he is still a good possession player. It went up, naturally, going from the Blues to Washington.

It's Okposo money. And Oshie has produced more than Okposo.

He is worth 6.

Plus, as always, you can offer a little less being a Florida team. 5.75 x 5 > 6 X 5 everywhere else except Texas and Vegas.

It's overblown ... just an 18 goals swing (GF and GA) in the other direction. That's how you go from a dominant second line to a second line that play hide and seek for the better part of the season.

Everyone agrees that Okposo's contract is bad. Using a bad contract to justify an other bad contract is not how you should go about to manage your cap space.

 

[Gentle Man]

It's overblown ... just an 18 goals swing (GF and GA) in the other direction. That's how you go from a dominant second line to a second line that play hide and seek for the better part of the season.

Everyone agrees that Okposo's contract is bad. Using a bad contract to justify an other bad contract is not how you should go about to manage your cap space.

Who's everyone?

Everyone agrees Andrew Ladd is a bad contract.

I think Okposo's is fair.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What would your ask be on Petrovic or Pysyk from the Sharks?

 

[batting1k]

What would your ask be on Petrovic or Pysyk from the Sharks?

Wouldn't move either of them honestly.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

What would your ask be on Petrovic or Pysyk from the Sharks?

Melkman + 3rd round pick, maybe. Probably neither will be traded except losing one to Vegas.

 

[batting1k]

His career PDO is 101.7. So what, he will dip by 3 % points? It's overblown, and he is still a good possession player. It went up, naturally, going from the Blues to Washington.

It's Okposo money. And Oshie has produced more than Okposo.

He is worth 6.

Plus, as always, you can offer a little less being a Florida team. 5.75 x 5 > 6 X 5 everywhere else except Texas and Vegas.

All of this analytics talk coming from the one who never has anything good to say about analytics

There's a huge difference between a PDO of 101 and 104.

Would you rather have a goaltender with a save percentage of 0.899 or 0.929? How about a forward with shooting percentage of 7 percent compared to one with a shooting percentage of 10 percent?

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

All of this analytics talk coming from the one who never has anything good to say about analytics

Agreed. Puma went full calculator... never go full calculator.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wouldn't move either of them honestly.

Totally fair, thought I'd ask.

Melkman + 3rd round pick, maybe. Probably neither will be traded except losing one to Vegas.

I'd do that.

 

[Chaos2k7]

Some who have been dismissing the %s have a real hard time understanding what they actually mean.

 

[Gentle Man]

All of this analytics talk coming from the one who never has anything good to say about analytics

There's a huge difference between a PDO of 101 and 104.

Would you rather have a goaltender with a save percentage of 0.899 or 0.929? How about a forward with shooting percentage of 7 percent compared to one with a shooting percentage of 10 percent?

Never?

101 is his career average.

Meaning 20-25 goals.

33 is clearly the outlier and shouldn't be the basis of who Oshie is.

PDO is the sum of two %es. Your comparing it to singular %es. Not even comparable

 

[batting1k]

Never?

101 is his career average.

Meaning 20-25 goals.

33 is clearly the outlier and shouldn't be the basis of who Oshie is.

Exactly, so there's no way I'm paying him based off this season, which is what will likely happen to some team.

 

[Gentle Man]

Exactly, so there's no way I'm paying him based off this season, which is what will likely happen to some team.

Body of work.

His and as I stated already, Florida can offer below 6 and it will be better than above 6 in most places.

 

[batting1k]

Never?

101 is his career average.

Meaning 20-25 goals.

33 is clearly the outlier and shouldn't be the basis of who Oshie is.

PDO is the sum of two %es. Your comparing it to singular %es. Not even comparable

Sure, but on their own, the percentages are unsustainable when low or high. PDO itself is just the sum, that's exactly the point, it's not it's own stat. It's literally a sum of two stats that change and fluctuate on their own.

 

[iam76]

timo meier

thanks sharks

 

[Gentle Man]

Sure, but on their own, the percentages are unsustainable when low or high. PDO itself is just the sum, that's exactly the point, it's not it's own stat. It's literally a sum of two stats that change and fluctuate on their own.

Right. Then it comes down to whether you use 23% or 13%.

If you are referencing PDO, then you are using 13%.

13 dip to his career averages or a little less, so around 20-25 goals

 

[batting1k]

Right. Then it comes down to whether you use 23% or 13%.

If you are referencing PDO, then you are using 13%.

13 dip to his career averages or a little less, so around 20-25 goals

I think I see what's happening here. You're looking at the team's shooting percentage with Oshie on the ice...that's not Oshie's shooting percentage.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=30&type=shots&sort=PDO&sortdir=DESC

 

[Chaos2k7]

There has never been two seperate shooting %s, ever.

Oshie is good, but he is not a gamebreaker. Kovy can be that guy.