Official 2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I'm sure we've all messed around with Tankathon over the past few weeks but honestly if we get one of these five I think that's a huge piece moving forward. If we move up I'm all over Misa as the pick at 1 or 2. Anywhere else I really don't care they're all going to be valuable pieces moving forward. I'm just dreading the inevitable Pitt and NYR winning the lottery and jumping us so they get Schaefer/Misa and we get McQueen. I think that's our pick if we fall out of top five after the lottery.

 

[Random Forest]

The Q is probably the 7th best u20 league on earth right now... seriously. While the WHL is in contention for the best!

It was a mistake tbh without hindsight for Backstrom or Kessel not to be #1 in that draft. Then Toews probably 3.

2006 was a pretty good draft. Average at very worse. Just teams were very bad at drafting then! (Which was great for Flyers... Giroux went in 20s with a better season than Desnoyers relative to league and scoring era!)

Johnson and Staal going off their level in draft year should have been back half of top 10 without hindsight. Teams drafted so much for size then it was hilarious.

I do think with Desnoyers though given his trajectory if he becomes Mikko Koivu or Sean Couturier or Roop Hintz... that is a homerun and the realistic upside.

Put it this way... Mikko Koivu and Sean Couturier were clearly better prospects in their draft years than Desnoyers. (And went similar spot to where he should) And probably hit something like 90th centile of outcomes for a player of that level in draft year... and they are still levels below guys like Kopitar, Toews and Bergeron!

I appreciate the semantics around where you draw the "upside" line. But 95% of guys who have become true stars have had better draft years relative to level than Desnoyers.

All good points and well taken. Point I’m just getting at is that it wasn’t obvious on draft day that the Kopitars, Toewses, and Draisaitls could even be who they became… but obviously they had such “potential”. Whether “who they became” was their 90th or 99th percentile outcome on draft day is the semantic debate.

Question is whether it’s 1 in 10 or 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 for Desnoyers, and I think that’s the disconnect. Even 5th rounders have outlier outcomes, but it’s probably more along the lines of 1 in 5000, which is why no one goes around saying “random 5th rounder has Toews potential”.

If pushed, my intuition says it’s probably between a 1 in 20 and 1 in 40 outcome for a player with Desnoyers’ profile. But I’m sure if we were running the 2005 draft today, I’d probably say a Kopitar-outcome for Kopitar himself would be at best 1 in 20!

EDIT: Also interesting how this implicates what it takes to build a winning team with multiple superstars. You have to chain together multiple 1 in X probabilities and get the 1 numerous times. Not easy even if you are effective at maximizing the probabilities (which the Flyers are, of course, not).

 

[Danko]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed but i've been watching highlights of Martone and his skating seems below average to me, just doesn't seem very agile...doesn't seem to bend his knees very much, am i wrong @Appleyard, I can take it if I am. I've literally watched 1 youtube highlight package.

 

[BiggE]

At 1, give me Schaefer
At 2, give me Misa or, if available, Schaefer
At 4, give me Hagens if possible, if not give me Frondell

No matter what, even of they fall to 6, they need to come away with one of the above or Eklund or Martone.

Desnoyers shouldn’t be going ahead of any of these guys, they all have higher ceilings.

 

[The Last Red]

Just draft BPA. Flyers are going to be in the McKenna hunt next season regardless of what Briere tries to do this offseason. They don’t have a starting goalie, top d-man, or 1C. Getting all three of those will take years, not months. One more tanking season is not going to kill anyone . . . and it’s going to occur anyway. Briere cannot just snap his fingers and make all this happen at once . . . or he would have already.

 

[captainpaxil]

Outside of the top 5 I'm warming on McQueen he's just too much risk but that upside is sick

 

[Sasso09]

Outside of the top 5 I'm warming on McQueen he's just too much risk but that upside is sick

This.

Flyers have plenty of middle 6 forwards, they need to keep swinging big for a superstar and that could be McQueen. If he busts, fine, you'll be in better position for the future McKennas and DuPonts. You're not winning in this league without 2-3 superstars

 

[TheKingPin]

He has some questions. He's on the smaller side which might have affected his game in college, also he might not be a center, he's become more of a distributor his shot is pretty good he just doesn't use it, his motor/decision making is a bit inconsistent this is more of a nitpick. His hockey IQ is excellent, he thinks the game like MM does more of a tactician, great skater with speed and edge work, great set of hands/stick handling.

He's, at last glance, solidly listed #2-#3 some think he's dropping out of the top 5, I think that might be the per-draft gamesmanship that happens. But you see it in football, prospects come up on the radar earlier they have a greater chance to be over analyzed and flaws magnified because they have been studied for years rather then months.

Watching a few highlight, I also saw him fitting well with Michkov. He needs smart player.

So why did Hagens drop from last year to this?

The Q is probably the 7th best u20 league on earth right now... seriously. While the WHL is in contention for the best!

It was a mistake tbh without hindsight for Backstrom or Kessel not to be #1 in that draft. Then Toews probably 3.

2006 was a pretty good draft. Average at very worse. Just teams were very bad at drafting then! (Which was great for Flyers... Giroux went in 20s with a better season than Desnoyers relative to league and scoring era!)

Johnson and Staal going off their level in draft year should have been back half of top 10 without hindsight. Teams drafted so much for size then it was hilarious.

I do think with Desnoyers though given his trajectory if he becomes Mikko Koivu or Sean Couturier or Roop Hintz... that is a homerun and the realistic upside.

Put it this way... Mikko Koivu and Sean Couturier were clearly better prospects in their draft years than Desnoyers. (And went similar spot to where he should) And probably hit something like 90th centile of outcomes for a player of that level in draft year... and they are still levels below guys like Kopitar, Toews and Bergeron!

I appreciate the semantics around where you draw the "upside" line. But 95% of guys who have become true stars have had better draft years relative to level than Desnoyers.

Yea those are good players, but I’d much rather get them in the second, max mid to late first. They went big on Michkov and wanted Demidov who looks very good. Hopefully Buium was just the agent thing. Hopefully they draft for ceilings.

 

[trostol]

I asked before..and Sasso just sorta brought it up..are any of these guys NHL ready? If not all this jabber is a bit moot as we won't see them for a couple of years

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Surprised they arent interested in Martone at all. Slapping him on Bedards wing could really unlock his next level.

I see what you did there

 

[Appleyard]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed but i've been watching highlights of Martone and his skating seems below average to me, just doesn't seem very agile...doesn't seem to bend his knees very much, am i wrong @Appleyard, I can take it if I am. I've literally watched 1 youtube highlight package.

I think his skating is around average.

Straight line speed is probably above average and he covers a lot of ground with his stride. Also when in stride he moves decently laterally.

But his skating cadence always looks a bit off, and he is always pretty upright. And his edge work when the game slows down is a bit choppy and not super sharp. Also his acceleration is merely "passable" for a player his size.

 

[Magua]

What do you think of O’Brien. Everything I read or watch he screams high end iq. Thinks the game fast and dishes well.

The absolute hardest player I've watched so far, maybe even back to the last class. I hate guys like this who leave me confused. I had one putrid watch, one strong one (like 10 PPs!), and a couple okay ones.

I actually don't really think he thinks the game fast. His PP/ES splits are both impressive and red flag territory (50 powerplay points). Impressive because he's The Guy on a well coached PP. Great at running half wall; he is a really skillful passer. At 5v5, I find he's all over the place. Not good defensively. But even with the puck, for a guy with good tools, constantly weird choices if it's not some open rush play. He excels with space is my unifying theory. Decisions and skill start breaking down under tighter pressure, ton of invisible shifts. But I see the highs, so I'm more confused than fully out.

I think we have the same read on Desnoyers. I don’t have any issue with your evaluation. What I’m pushing on is the argument that it’s out of line to say he has superstar potential.

I’m not saying every top five player has elite potential simply by virtue of going top 5. There are obviously top 5 picks who don’t. What I am saying is that there will be another Toews or Kopitar or Makar or Heiskanen or Draisaitl, and maybe you say they had “superstar potential” in their draft year, but I wouldn’t say it was much more obvious than it is with Desnoyers. Becoming “elite” is well outside the fat part of the curve for all non-1OA picks. Doesn’t mean it’s unreasonable to acknowledge what the 90+ percentile outcome is. I’d say Desnoyers’ 90th percentile outcome is an elite two way forward, and that’s enough for me to consider that his “potential”.

To put it another way: what would the next Kopitar or Bergeron or [insert player who was highly regarded but was not obviously who they turned out to be] present as in his draft year? If Desnoyers’ tape (which I agree doesn’t scream “elite production”) DID scream “elite production”, then he would be in the 1OA conversation, which those other guys weren’t.

The guys at the top of the draft are known commodities -- people sometimes think it's the ceilings, but it's as much or more the floors that put them there. If you want to point to every Kopitar or Bergeron today (again, I think you can't compare drafting practices 20 years old), you'd find it doesn't happen a lot in the ~10-25 range. In a deeper class, I think Desnoyers is more in that 10-20 range skill-set. I'm being generous because 1Cs usually either go in the lottery, or they go in Thomas, Aho, Point, Thompson range. Few in between. Because the next Kopitar (say, Barkov) are either complete knowns with loud tools or harder to predict 99th percentile ceilings, usually with other risks or a non-linear progression.

I think Desnoyers' optimistic ceiling is a 50-60 point center which strong underlying numbers. Valuable. I'll give an example: I had Robert Thomas ranked top 10 with a sub point/game draft year with playoffs. Had him above Suzuki, who had vastly better production (and I was a touch too harsh on him, so it's not all back pats). I wouldn't have said Thomas was a 90 point center in the making, but I saw "It." His tape was also the x factor, well-rounded kind, and frankly, I'm a sucker for that stuff more than flashy and substance free. But the passing chance creating was juicier; his ability to shield the puck to do so felt standout. I just don't know if Desnoyers has that single high end identifiable trait. What is he tangibly plus at? I want something to sink my teeth into and as others have said, the Q isn't terribly strong.

 

[Magua]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed but i've been watching highlights of Martone and his skating seems below average to me, just doesn't seem very agile...doesn't seem to bend his knees very much, am i wrong @Appleyard, I can take it if I am. I've literally watched 1 youtube highlight package.

I think his skating is around average.

Straight line speed is probably above average and he covers a lot of ground with his stride. Also when in stride he moves decently laterally.

But his skating cadence always looks a bit off, and he is always pretty upright. And his edge work when the game slows down is a bit choppy and not super sharp. Also his acceleration is merely "passable" for a player his size.

100% agree. When he actually gets several strides and gets the knee bend -- it doesn't happen as much as you'd like -- it's surprisingly above average. He's a long strider at his size with a long reach. It takes him out of some shifts (even if he's good off puck). But he's heavy in the boots from stationary positions, and he does have a habit of standing too upright. Maybe he does ideally play next to a transporting center.

If it doesn't track up, is he a better passing Vilardi? My gut tells me his raw skill is also higher. I don't think Martone's skating is broken like Vilardi's was (keep in mind 11 month relative age difference). If it improves, that's where he can swing to a star. I'm not pessimistic because I can latch onto some positive moments skating; a lot of this is garden variety power skating technique. There aren't many 6'3 guys so good at using their body and stick together in tight spaces to improve puck position and create. He's soooo calm through pressure.

 

[pit]

If he busts, fine, you'll be in better position for the future McKennas and DuPonts. You're not winning in this league without 2-3 superstars

The thing is we potentially have one in Michkov. If we continue to whiff on these kind of picks right now, we could lose Michkov's prime.

We already missed a golden opportunity last year with Buium. Doing that again with a top 6 pick will be dire.

 

[Random Forest]

The absolute hardest player I've watched so far, maybe even back to the last class. I hate guys like this who leave me confused. I had one putrid watch, one strong one (like 10 PPs!), and a couple okay ones.

I actually don't really think he thinks the game fast. His PP/ES splits are both impressive and red flag territory (50 powerplay points). Impressive because he's The Guy on a well coached PP. Great at running half wall; he is a really skillful passer. At 5v5, I find he's all over the place. Not good defensively. But even with the puck, for a guy with good tools, constantly weird choices if it's not some open rush play. He excels with space is my unifying theory. Decisions and skill start breaking down under tighter pressure, ton of invisible shifts. But I see the highs, so I'm more confused than fully out.



The guys at the top of the draft are known commodities -- people sometimes think it's the ceilings, but it's as much or more the floors that put them there. If you want to point to every Kopitar or Bergeron today (again, I think you can't compare drafting practices 20 years old), you'd find it doesn't happen a lot in the ~10-25 range. In a deeper class, I think Desnoyers is more in that 10-20 range skill-set. I'm being generous because 1Cs usually either go in the lottery, or they go in Thomas, Aho, Point, Thompson range. Few in between. Because the next Kopitar (say, Barkov) are either complete knowns with loud tools or harder to predict 99th percentile ceilings, usually with other risks or a non-linear progression.

I think Desnoyers' optimistic ceiling is a 50-60 point center which strong underlying numbers. Valuable. I'll give an example: I had Robert Thomas ranked top 10 with a sub point/game draft year with playoffs. Had him above Suzuki, who had vastly better production (and I was a touch too harsh on him, so it's not all back pats). I wouldn't have said Thomas was a 90 point center in the making, but I saw "It." His tape was also the x factor, well-rounded kind, and frankly, I'm a sucker for that stuff more than flashy and substance free. But the passing chance creating was juicier; his ability to shield the puck to do so felt standout. I just don't know if Desnoyers has that single high end identifiable trait. What is he tangibly plus at? I want something to sink my teeth into and as others have said, the Q isn't terribly strong.

Like this post. Only contention is with the characterization of his ceiling. I think it’s firmly within his range of outcomes (unlikely though!) to top out as a 70 point center with a strong two way game (won’t say anything about being a Selke level player because you can’t predict that, but we all know the archetype). A Couturier career arc wouldn’t be shocking at all. Which is still well short of Kopitar. I think a lot of what you say was just as applicable to Couturier (who of course had a better junior resume himself), and why he fell in 2011.

 

[BigToe]

Zharovsky is super interesting. One of the only guys I'm still watching.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

What are the chances that Hagens or Frondell end up at center in the NHL? Might as well ask about Misa too

 

[Sombastate]

What are the chances that Hagens or Frondell end up at center in the NHL? Might as well ask about Misa too

I think Misa is less likely a center than Frondell and Hagens, but some people think Frondell is a destined LW, so i could be wrong here

 

[StoneColdAnimal]

If I had to sum up Hagens after watching him more than a handful of times this year, the word I’d use is uncomfortable. He still flashed all the elite tools that had him pegged as near “generational” heading into this draft, but the consistency and end product just weren’t there. It felt like the pieces never really clicked.

Then I started noticing a trend—he was playing with linemates who thought they were better than they actually were, especially Leonard. That guy was a rhythm killer. It reminded me a lot of how MM looked when stuck with Tippett: talented player, dragged down by poor chemistry and questionable decision-making around him.

Bottom line, Hagens ended up in the wrong spot his draft year. A lot of the criticisms floating around can be explained pretty easily once you factor in how uncomfortable he looked on that line. And the fact that he still managed a point-per-game season despite all that? Not too shabby, if you were actually watching the context he was working with.

 

[Adtar02]

Thank you.

The absolute hardest player I've watched so far, maybe even back to the last class. I hate guys like this who leave me confused. I had one putrid watch, one strong one (like 10 PPs!), and a couple okay ones.

I actually don't really think he thinks the game fast. His PP/ES splits are both impressive and red flag territory (50 powerplay points). Impressive because he's The Guy on a well coached PP. Great at running half wall; he is a really skillful passer. At 5v5, I find he's all over the place. Not good defensively. But even with the puck, for a guy with good tools, constantly weird choices if it's not some open rush play. He excels with space is my unifying theory. Decisions and skill start breaking down under tighter pressure, ton of invisible shifts. But I see the highs, so I'm more confused than fully out.



The guys at the top of the draft are known commodities -- people sometimes think it's the ceilings, but it's as much or more the floors that put them there. If you want to point to every Kopitar or Bergeron today (again, I think you can't compare drafting practices 20 years old), you'd find it doesn't happen a lot in the ~10-25 range. In a deeper class, I think Desnoyers is more in that 10-20 range skill-set. I'm being generous because 1Cs usually either go in the lottery, or they go in Thomas, Aho, Point, Thompson range. Few in between. Because the next Kopitar (say, Barkov) are either complete knowns with loud tools or harder to predict 99th percentile ceilings, usually with other risks or a non-linear progression.

I think Desnoyers' optimistic ceiling is a 50-60 point center which strong underlying numbers. Valuable. I'll give an example: I had Robert Thomas ranked top 10 with a sub point/game draft year with playoffs. Had him above Suzuki, who had vastly better production (and I was a touch too harsh on him, so it's not all back pats). I wouldn't have said Thomas was a 90 point center in the making, but I saw "It." His tape was also the x factor, well-rounded kind, and frankly, I'm a sucker for that stuff more than flashy and substance free. But the passing chance creating was juicier; his ability to shield the puck to do so felt standout. I just don't know if Desnoyers has that single high end identifiable trait. What is he tangibly plus at? I want something to sink my teeth into and as others have said, the Q isn't terribly strong.

Thank you

 

[BiggE]

The more I watch the top forwards in this draft, the more I think Hagens would be the best center for Michkov. As of now, the Flyers don’t have a 1LW to play with them, but Foerster would probably be serviceable until they do.

 

[StoneColdAnimal]

The more I watch the top forwards in this draft, the more I think Hagens would be the best center for Michkov. As of now, the Flyers don’t have a 1LW to play with them, but Foerster would probably be serviceable until they do.

Agree with all of this. Hagens and MM will be dynamic. Need a bigger LW that is defensively responsible, can shoot, and think the game. TF might be a very nice compliment to that line. But there isn’t any other option.

 

[Random Forest]

I feel like Frondell would play well with MM at ES, but it’s all alchemy. Perhaps issues on the PP where they both would need to be on the right side, though I could see it working in a right side overload with lots of movement and cycling.

Frondell just has a gravitas to his game that I really like. That commanding presence reminds me of Barkov/Draisaitl who take up so much space and focus (no, I’m not saying he will be on that level). Couturier has a fraction of that heaviness and presence, and I feel like that’s why it worked with Michkov.

 

[Nabrules]

Pronman just wrote an article looking at Central Scouting Rankings that just came out.

He said that CS' ranking of O'Brien at 4 (on the NA side) checks out with NHL scouts he's talked to who are starting to having him top 5 on their lists. States teams love his combination of a 6'2 frame he can go into with great offensive traits. Said he could be this years Sennecke in terms of how high he goes.

I've been a big O'Brien fan for a while now too and if he's our pick anywhere between 4-6 I wouldn't hate it. He has all the tools to become the exciting point producing centre we need

 

[Adam Warlock]

Why are so many people on X convinced they would take Desnoyers at 4? Is there a connection there or would it just be a "flyers thing" to do?