Official 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[wankstifier]

Demidov could probably fall like Michkov, no? Or, will teams be more willing to go after a prospect in the KHL if they project to be a C?

 

[Appleyard]

I am running some transferability data between the worlds top u-20 leagues...

so USHL, CHL, MHL, J20, u-20 SM Sarja, Swiss u-20, Czech u-20, Slovak u-20 and German u-20...

and while the whole data will probably unfortunately not be public.

I can tell you one real shock for me.

u-20 SM Sarja>J20... and clearly so. Not "that" close. Talking around a 15% difference.

The general consensus would be the other way around, partially as SHL is stronger than Liiga. It is not a "new" trend either. It has been pretty stable for like 10 years.

Though MHL blows all the other Euro leagues out of the water. It is really pretty damn close level wise to the North American leagues.

It is not complete yet, still need to look at the Czech u-20 league properly... will maybe post some of the highlights here.

but very interesting. Not sure an analysis that "only" focuses on transferability directly between the u-20 leagues has been done before.

Ofc, sample is mainly one way traffic from Europe to North America.

Can't give you all the rates sadly...

but here are the major Euro junior leagues in terms of strength (these are the only 8 u-20 leagues I could include as just very little data in terms of transfers etc from Latvia, Norway, Denmark and Austria, and we know those u-20 leagues are far worse that these 8 too):

1. MHL (Russia)
2. u-20 SM Sarja (Finland)
3. J20 (Sweden)
4. DHL Extraliga u-20 (Czechia)
5. u-20 Elit (Switzerland)
6. Belarus Vysshaya (Belarus)
7. Extraliga u-20 (Slovakia)
8. DNL u-20 (Germany)

Notes:

MHL, Finland and Sweden are comfortably the top 3, with clear gaps between each. Then a bit of a drop to the next tier, which is:

Czech Extraliga and Swiss u-20 Elit, who are pretty close, but Extraliga does have a clear edge.

Belarus Vysshaya is probably not "as" strong as the stats indicate. It is skewed as 75% of the guys who leave there for North American play for the Belarus u-18 NT that is in that league... but still, it shocked me how good the data is. It is pretty much half-way between Czech Extraliga and next tier... which is:

Slovakia u-20 and the DNL, which are very close. Slovakia has a slight edge. But it is a very small margin.

 

[FLYguy3911]

 

[BigToe]

He never touches the puck though?

 

[FLYguy3911]

He never touches the puck though?

It was this goal.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

James Hagens has a legit chance at breaking Kucherov’s U18 WJC scoring record.

He has 16 points & still time left in his fourth game played so far. Kucherov is 21 points in 7 games.

 

[BigToe]

Freij has been shaky at the u18s so far

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Considering there seems to be a 50/50 chance that Michkov comes over next season, which of the ~8-14 range draftees would fit the best with him? Helenius?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

James Hagens has a legit chance at breaking Kucherov’s U18 WJC scoring record.

He has 16 points & still time left in his fourth game played so far. Kucherov is 21 points in 7 games.

It does feel like these generational or elite or whatever else you want to call them Forward prospects are appearing at an accelerating rate, doesn't it? Bedard, Michkov, Celebrini, Hagens, and McKenna level prospects entering the league in a 4 year cluster is something I can't remember happening. Even with the McDavid + Eichel double up in 2015, there still wasn't a stretch like this.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It does feel like these generational or elite or whatever else you want to call them Forward prospects are appearing at an accelerating rate, doesn't it? Bedard, Michkov, Celebrini, Hagens, and McKenna level prospects entering the league in a 4 year cluster is something I can't remember happening. Even with the McDavid + Eichel double up in 2015, there still wasn't a stretch like this.

Yeah I don’t doubt these guys are really good but i do wonder if we’re more so basing it on historically scoring when these guys are probably more encouraged than ever at an early age to be more aggressive offensively? So is that also skewing things some?

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

It does feel like these generational or elite or whatever else you want to call them Forward prospects are appearing at an accelerating rate, doesn't it? Bedard, Michkov, Celebrini, Hagens, and McKenna level prospects entering the league in a 4 year cluster is something I can't remember happening. Even with the McDavid + Eichel double up in 2015, there still wasn't a stretch like this.

Ovechkin (2004)
Malkin (2004)
Crosby (2005)
Kane (2007)
Stamkos (2008)
Tavares (2009)

This was a stretch where, outside of Kane (though I could be misremembering), these guys were tapped pre-draft as being potentially generational offensive players. Six years instead of four, but that's a period of hype I recall clearly.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Ovechkin (2004)
Malkin (2004)
Crosby (2005)
Kane (2007)
Stamkos (2008)
Tavares (2009)

This was a stretch where, outside of Kane (though I could be misremembering), these guys were tapped pre-draft as being potentially generational offensive players. Six years instead of four, but that's a period of hype I recall clearly.

I don’t have memory of Kane as that type of prospect, but I was living in Italy and very much off of the hockey internet for a good portion of that cycle. So I’ll trust your judgment on that one.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I don’t have memory of Kane as that type of prospect, but I was living in Italy and very much off of the hockey internet for a good portion of that cycle. So I’ll trust your judgment on that one.

I don't think he was. I don't even think he was a consensus number one... I should remember this year more clearly given the Flyers' circumstances, but it was also a period of regular alcohol consumption.

 

[tictactoe]

Demidov could be in Russia for the next 5 years.. same for Michkov or anyone else.

 

[BernieParent]

I don’t have memory of Kane as that type of prospect, but I was living in Italy and very much off of the hockey internet for a good portion of that cycle. So I’ll trust your judgment on that one.

I don't think he was. I don't even think he was a consensus number one... I should remember this year more clearly given the Flyers' circumstances, but it was also a period of regular alcohol consumption.

Thank you both. I was starting to doubt my recall of the projections leading up to that draft. I remembered Kane being #1 on most mocks and expert lists but it wasn't a runaway like with the others in the years cited.

 

[Rebels57]

Ovechkin (2004)
Malkin (2004)
Crosby (2005)
Kane (2007)
Stamkos (2008)
Tavares (2009)

This was a stretch where, outside of Kane (though I could be misremembering), these guys were tapped pre-draft as being potentially generational offensive players. Six years instead of four, but that's a period of hype I recall clearly.

Just makes the stretch that followed from 2010 to 2014 more glaring in it's awfulness.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Draft circle of life. Bedard immediately followed two drafts without a consensus top guy (and Slafkovsky was a mild shocker of a 1 oa to many).

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

but it was also a period of regular alcohol consumption.

For you, or Kane?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ovechkin (2004)
Malkin (2004)
Crosby (2005)
Kane (2007)
Stamkos (2008)
Tavares (2009)

This was a stretch where, outside of Kane (though I could be misremembering), these guys were tapped pre-draft as being potentially generational offensive players. Six years instead of four, but that's a period of hype I recall clearly.

I don't think he was. I don't even think he was a consensus number one... I should remember this year more clearly given the Flyers' circumstances, but it was also a period of regular alcohol consumption.

Kane wasn't perceived to be at the time. Hell I knew about Jake Voracek before I did Kane lol. I think it was a combination of the USNTDP wasn't nearly what it is today so he was flying under the radar even though he put up incredible numbers there, he played on a line with two (future) NHLers at London so people didn't truly appreciate his production, and he was an undersized winger coming into the league just as it was exiting the clutch and grab era.

I also remember Stamkos wasn't quite viewed in the "generational" tier. Tavares was always seen as the best '90.

Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, and Tavares were all definitely viewed as can't miss. When I was just a young lad, I used to come to HF for the prospect writeups and I remember they had a writeup for all of the top prospects for the '03,'04,and'05 drafts and the only guy they had listed for the '05 class was Crosby (turns out it was kind of a one player draft) when I want to say he was playing AAA hockey in Nova Scotia. It was quite the call.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Very possible the 2025 & 2026 first overall picks between Hagens & McKenna.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Very possible the 2025 & 2026 first overall picks between Hagens & McKenna.

Should be in the final too. This is one of Canada's stronger teams at this thing.

 

[Wangstar]

USA had to battle, Swiss made em work for it.
James Hagens, wow, that guy will break kucherovs tourney record.
Eisermann the goal scorer he has disappeared.
Canada did not have an easy time with Latvia. They need to play more structured if they want to continue.
I would not take Eisermann at 12. Better off taking a riser than a faller

 

[BigToe]

 

[Larry44]

Realgud draft simulator
I posted this draft simulator before, but it's been updated to put the Flyers at 12th. Still have the 36th pick for PFs from CBJ in the list (so I just pick one for fun), which I doubt, but still fun.

 

[sigma six]

Demidov could be in Russia for the next 5 years.. same for Michkov or anyone else.

I thought the expectation was that his KHL contract only lasts one more year, and that he'd come over after the 2024-2025 season. Or is this wishful thinking for whomever drafts him?