Official 2024-25 Utah HC Season Discussion.

[lanky]

I would say their are 3 tiers, miss the playoffs, make the playoffs, then how far did you go.

This morning you used the upward trajectory in points as proof that Detroit is doing it right. Now someone else uses that logic as evidence that Utah is also doing it right, but now you say that logic is flawed.

According to your new model of 3 tiers, how has Detroit performed?

 

[cobra427]

This morning you used the upward trajectory in points as proof that Detroit is doing it right. Now someone else uses that logic as evidence that Utah is also doing it right, but now you say that logic is flawed.

According to your new model of 3 tiers, how has Detroit performed?

91 points last year, just missed the playoffs, in a playoff spot this year, that is progress, Coyotes were sub 80 points last year and 82ish this year, its not enough progress.

 

[Boud]

Sens fan coming in peace. What would you guys be willing to give for Josh Norris? Obviously there’s injury concerns, but he’s a good player and would be an upgrade. The cost to acquire him shouldn’t be anything earth shattering but the upside is high. He’s young, defensively responsible, PKs, good shot, great skater but has a high AAV and has been unlucky with injuries. On the other hand Sens have Pinto who could probably play a 2nd line role. It would allow to round out the lineup better if Norris wasn’t on the roster…

Would the Utah/Arizona faithful consider something like this:

Jack Mcbain/Lawson Crouse/Barrett Hayton
Juuso Valimaki
A pick

For

Josh Norris

 

[Dirty Old Man]

So as a somewhat-bemused, formerly-rabid fan who no longer has much skin in the game ("utah lost again? Oh well"), but follows this team because he doesn't know what else to do...for the people who want BA and AT gone... who is available today that you go after?

 

[Jakey53]

Sens fan coming in peace. What would you guys be willing to give for Josh Norris? Obviously there’s injury concerns, but he’s a good player and would be an upgrade. The cost to acquire him shouldn’t be anything earth shattering but the upside is high. He’s young, defensively responsible, PKs, good shot, great skater but has a high AAV and has been unlucky with injuries. On the other hand Sens have Pinto who could probably play a 2nd line role. It would allow to round out the lineup better if Norris wasn’t on the roster…

Would the Utah/Arizona faithful consider something like this:

Jack Mcbain/Lawson Crouse/Barrett Hayton
Juuso Valimaki
A pick

For

Josh Norris

Norris injuries are a big concern, as is now his contract. I might consider that deal but Hayton has to be excluded. We need C's.

 

[Jakey53]

So as a somewhat-bemused, formerly-rabid fan who no longer has much skin in the game ("utah lost again? Oh well"), but follows this team because he doesn't know what else to do...for the people who want BA and AT gone... who is available today that you go after?

I would think both get another year unless the team implodes like last year.

 

[Jakey53]

91 points last year, just missed the playoffs, in a playoff spot this year, that is progress, Coyotes were sub 80 points last year and 82ish this year, its not enough progress.

Today Detroit has 61pts., Utah 57pts. Teams play in a different conference for whatever that is worth. Detroit is like what, 2 yrs. ahead of Utah in their rebuild?
I'm not saying anyone should be satisfied, but fans expect more than what reality is many times. Detroit fans were calling for Yzerman's head awhile back as well. I personally think the rebuild is a year behind, but I'm willing to wait until years end to give my final opinion. There is a lot of hockey left.

 

[Mangosteen]

So as a somewhat-bemused, formerly-rabid fan who no longer has much skin in the game ("utah lost again? Oh well"), but follows this team because he doesn't know what else to do...for the people who want BA and AT gone... who is available today that you go after?

That's the tough question and why I think the changes will come this summer.

 

[IronFinn]

91 points last year, just missed the playoffs, in a playoff spot this year, that is progress, Coyotes were sub 80 points last year and 82ish this year, its not enough progress.

On a purely numerical basis, this post is laughable. Last year the Red Wings had 91 points. This year, as of today, they are on a pace for 90 (yes, 1 less). Last year the Coyotes had 77 points. This year, as of today, they are on a pace for 83. That is an improvement of 6 points. The Red Wings are in a playoff position today just because their conference is weaker than it was last year (at the bottom of the playoff group), not because they are doing better. On a points basis, as of today, the UHC has made more progress that Detroit has this year. Numbers don't lie.

 

[TheLegend]

Steve Y, points, 48, 74, 80, 91, thats what I call progress, and they are in the last playoff spot today, they are on coach number 3 under Steve Y too. I see more progress and 3 different coaches, much different.

All with the same ownership.

Are you just going to ignore the fiscal handcuffs BA was saddled with for nearly three years??

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Canis Latrans]

Neither Tourigny nor Armstrong are remotely close to losing their jobs.

Tourigny
1. Improvement in overall play. This hangup on standings points as the measure of improvement is lazy and if anything it actually does show improvement year-to-year.
2. Core player development. Great improvement in most every young player who is expected to contribute in the coming years. He's the right coach for this and considering that more prospects will be graduating up, he's exactly who you want there to take them to the next level.
3. Style of play. Guys are being allowed to take chances so they can reach their potential. They have so many high danger chances and aren't being asked to play conservatively with the safe play. They make mistakes so they can learn their limits instead of holding back to eke out 2 more wins this season when it doesn't matter. If Tourigny's job was on the line, you'd see him focus on getting the win at all costs. Look at how he benched Cooley a few weeks ago after he took a bad penalty. May have cost the team the game by not putting him back out there, but it's a lesson for Cooley and everyone else that will stand out and have greater influence going forward.

Armstrong
1. Clear focus is on future seasons and apparently this wasn't made clear to some when we entered the rebuild. He's not looking to jump up to the next stage prematurely. They'll get to the playoffs. If it takes an extra season so be it. The goal isn't "to make the playoffs" it's to win the cup. Don't sacrifice to make a step if it's not in the direction of the ultimate goal.
2. Job security moves. If he needed to win now, he'd have sacrificed the future. He hasn't.
3. Injuries. His replacements have been to hold things down to allow for line-ups that don't alter proper development. He didn't go out and throw away top draft picks and prospects to secure a few extra points in this season.
4. Best measure of success is the core, not some perimeter players who aren't going to be here that are affecting the overall team performance this season. A good number of players who are going to be part of the core aren't even up on the team yet. Guys like Stenlund and Kerfoot aren't likely to be here when the team is great (in all likelihood), but they're going to help the guys who will be here by teaching them how to play and leading by example.

Smith & Fan Expectations
1. It's his first year as owner. If you just acquired the team and knew it's performance the past few years, why would it be reasonable to set the expectation at the playoffs. The guy owns the Jazz who are wallowing at the bottom trying to rebuild. He knows it takes time and he's actually gotten to bypass the rock bottom seasons.
2. No baggage. Like it or not, Smith has had 50some games with the team and isn't going to hem and haw over how many years of rebuilding the last few years were. Why would he give management and the coaching staff some short leash coming into the first season?
3. Utah fans expectations. Most fans are entirely new to the sport and will tolerate however they play. They'll be good when the novelty factor has started to fade. There's no fan or media pressure for this team to start making short-term moves.

No issue with being critical with things to a degree, but altogether, there is no chance these guys are facing concerns about job security. Team improvement isn't a linear path.

 

[cobra427]

On a purely numerical basis, this post is laughable. Last year the Red Wings had 91 points. This year, as of today, they are on a pace for 90 (yes, 1 less). Last year the Coyotes had 77 points. This year, as of today, they are on a pace for 83. That is an improvement of 6 points. The Red Wings are in a playoff position today just because their conference is weaker than it was last year (at the bottom of the playoff group), not because they are doing better. On a points basis, as of today, the UHC has made more progress that Detroit has this year. Numbers don't lie.

Sure, Utah has more progress, they were 27th best last year and 22nd best this year. Detroit had the 18th best record last year and 16th best today. Detroit just missed the playoffs last year and are in a spot this year. Utah isn't in a just missed position today. Yes they are 6 points better, next year if they are 6 points better we will have a massive grand total of 89 points, the year after, with another 6 points, we might make the playoffs at 95 points, in year 7 of BAs tenure.

Neither Tourigny nor Armstrong are remotely close to losing their jobs.

Tourigny
1. Improvement in overall play. This hangup on standings points as the measure of improvement is lazy and if anything it actually does show improvement year-to-year.
2. Core player development. Great improvement in most every young player who is expected to contribute in the coming years. He's the right coach for this and considering that more prospects will be graduating up, he's exactly who you want there to take them to the next level.
3. Style of play. Guys are being allowed to take chances so they can reach their potential. They have so many high danger chances and aren't being asked to play conservatively with the safe play. They make mistakes so they can learn their limits instead of holding back to eke out 2 more wins this season when it doesn't matter. If Tourigny's job was on the line, you'd see him focus on getting the win at all costs. Look at how he benched Cooley a few weeks ago after he took a bad penalty. May have cost the team the game by not putting him back out there, but it's a lesson for Cooley and everyone else that will stand out and have greater influence going forward.

Armstrong
1. Clear focus is on future seasons and apparently this wasn't made clear to some when we entered the rebuild. He's not looking to jump up to the next stage prematurely. They'll get to the playoffs. If it takes an extra season so be it. The goal isn't "to make the playoffs" it's to win the cup. Don't sacrifice to make a step if it's not in the direction of the ultimate goal.
2. Job security moves. If he needed to win now, he'd have sacrificed the future. He hasn't.
3. Injuries. His replacements have been to hold things down to allow for line-ups that don't alter proper development. He didn't go out and throw away top draft picks and prospects to secure a few extra points in this season.
4. Best measure of success is the core, not some perimeter players who aren't going to be here that are affecting the overall team performance this season. A good number of players who are going to be part of the core aren't even up on the team yet. Guys like Stenlund and Kerfoot aren't likely to be here when the team is great (in all likelihood), but they're going to help the guys who will be here by teaching them how to play and leading by example.

Smith & Fan Expectations
1. It's his first year as owner. If you just acquired the team and knew it's performance the past few years, why would it be reasonable to set the expectation at the playoffs. The guy owns the Jazz who are wallowing at the bottom trying to rebuild. He knows it takes time and he's actually gotten to bypass the rock bottom seasons.
2. No baggage. Like it or not, Smith has had 50some games with the team and isn't going to hem and haw over how many years of rebuilding the last few years were. Why would he give management and the coaching staff some short leash coming into the first season?
3. Utah fans expectations. Most fans are entirely new to the sport and will tolerate however they play. They'll be good when the novelty factor has started to fade. There's no fan or media pressure for this team to start making short-term moves.

No issue with being critical with things to a degree, but altogether, there is no chance these guys are facing concerns about job security. Team improvement isn't a linear path.

If we are in the high 80 point range, their jobs might be safe, I mean might. If we are at 80 points or less, I think Bear gets shot and maybe BA too. New owners like to bring in their guys and make changes in mangament, I don't think either is safe, its 50/50.

 

[Mangosteen]

I would think both get another year unless the team implodes like last year.

Neither Tourigny nor Armstrong are remotely close to losing their jobs.

Tourigny
1. Improvement in overall play. This hangup on standings points as the measure of improvement is lazy and if anything it actually does show improvement year-to-year.
2. Core player development. Great improvement in most every young player who is expected to contribute in the coming years. He's the right coach for this and considering that more prospects will be graduating up, he's exactly who you want there to take them to the next level.
3. Style of play. Guys are being allowed to take chances so they can reach their potential. They have so many high danger chances and aren't being asked to play conservatively with the safe play. They make mistakes so they can learn their limits instead of holding back to eke out 2 more wins this season when it doesn't matter. If Tourigny's job was on the line, you'd see him focus on getting the win at all costs. Look at how he benched Cooley a few weeks ago after he took a bad penalty. May have cost the team the game by not putting him back out there, but it's a lesson for Cooley and everyone else that will stand out and have greater influence going forward.

Armstrong
1. Clear focus is on future seasons and apparently this wasn't made clear to some when we entered the rebuild. He's not looking to jump up to the next stage prematurely. They'll get to the playoffs. If it takes an extra season so be it. The goal isn't "to make the playoffs" it's to win the cup. Don't sacrifice to make a step if it's not in the direction of the ultimate goal.
2. Job security moves. If he needed to win now, he'd have sacrificed the future. He hasn't.
3. Injuries. His replacements have been to hold things down to allow for line-ups that don't alter proper development. He didn't go out and throw away top draft picks and prospects to secure a few extra points in this season.
4. Best measure of success is the core, not some perimeter players who aren't going to be here that are affecting the overall team performance this season. A good number of players who are going to be part of the core aren't even up on the team yet. Guys like Stenlund and Kerfoot aren't likely to be here when the team is great (in all likelihood), but they're going to help the guys who will be here by teaching them how to play and leading by example.

Smith & Fan Expectations
1. It's his first year as owner. If you just acquired the team and knew it's performance the past few years, why would it be reasonable to set the expectation at the playoffs. The guy owns the Jazz who are wallowing at the bottom trying to rebuild. He knows it takes time and he's actually gotten to bypass the rock bottom seasons.
2. No baggage. Like it or not, Smith has had 50some games with the team and isn't going to hem and haw over how many years of rebuilding the last few years were. Why would he give management and the coaching staff some short leash coming into the first season?
3. Utah fans expectations. Most fans are entirely new to the sport and will tolerate however they play. They'll be good when the novelty factor has started to fade. There's no fan or media pressure for this team to start making short-term moves.

No issue with being critical with things to a degree, but altogether, there is no chance these guys are facing concerns about job security. Team improvement isn't a linear path.

Really like a lot of your post except not making the playoffs. Smith and Armstrong will hold him accountable. I would fire him this year to say being a loser team is no longer acceptable. Smith and Armstrong will probably give him till December. If we continue wasting years of talented players is unacceptable. Injuries will get him a free be for this year.

 

[Jamieh]

Sure, Utah has more progress, they were 27th best last year and 22nd best this year. Detroit had the 18th best record last year and 16th best today. Detroit just missed the playoffs last year and are in a spot this year. Utah isn't in a just missed position today. Yes they are 6 points better, next year if they are 6 points better we will have a massive grand total of 89 points, the year after, with another 6 points, we might make the playoffs at 95 points, in year 7 of BAs tenure.


If we are in the high 80 point range, their jobs might be safe, I mean might. If we are at 80 points or less, I think Bear gets shot and maybe BA too. New owners like to bring in their guys and make changes in mangament, I don't think either is safe, its 50/50.

Let's not forget Detroit also replaced their Coach this year when he wasn't showing progress.

 

[Llewzaher]

ha, that's the biggest jinx of all time...we know where to go if we have a 14-game losing streak

If we would have won half of those games we would have been tied with ST Louis for 92 pts

 

[Canis Latrans]

If we are in the high 80 point range, their jobs might be safe, I mean might. If we are at 80 points or less, I think Bear gets shot and maybe BA too. New owners like to bring in their guys and make changes in mangament, I don't think either is safe, its 50/50.

Really like a lot of your post except not making the playoffs. Smith and Armstrong will hold him accountable. I would fire him this year to say being a loser team is no longer acceptable. Smith and Armstrong will probably give him till December. If we continue wasting years of talented players is unacceptable. Injuries will get him a free be for this year.

Is there anything pointing to internal dissatisfaction with either Tourigny or Armstrong? Because everything I've seen indicates they are both well-liked and doing a great job. Even if it's just an outwardly happy take from ownership, I'd think there's be some statement out there regarding what the expectation was for this season. I've not seen anything leading me to believe they aren't meeting expectations.

Both of your arguments appear to be that you expect more, which is fine, and obviously not meeting expectations results in looking at replacements, but I am not under the impression that your expectations align with ownerships.

I'm visiting family in the States for the next month, so happy to re-evaluate upon return, but my guess is it'll be a clear we're happy with the progress and what's up and coming for the roster, even if they're firmly out of the playoff picture at that point (no doubt, they aren't making it).

 

[cobra427]

Is there anything pointing to internal dissatisfaction with either Tourigny or Armstrong? Because everything I've seen indicates they are both well-liked and doing a great job. Even if it's just an outwardly happy take from ownership, I'd think there's be some statement out there regarding what the expectation was for this season. I've not seen anything leading me to believe they aren't meeting expectations.

Both of your arguments appear to be that you expect more, which is fine, and obviously not meeting expectations results in looking at replacements, but I am not under the impression that your expectations align with ownerships.

I'm visiting family in the States for the next month, so happy to re-evaluate upon return, but my guess is it'll be a clear we're happy with the progress and what's up and coming for the roster, even if they're firmly out of the playoff picture at that point (no doubt, they aren't making it).

I don't know what the ownership and management above BA are thinking right now. The quick team move certainly had them thinking stay the course. This summer we will find out where they are at and they might stay the course, that wouldn't surprise me.

Historically, GMs and coaches don't last past 5 and 4 years without some results, make playoffs or get close enough, 90+ points, to show for it. The question is how much longer does the, we are young, we were broke, we had injuries, how long does that bogie last for both of them before they have to have results? Points are the measuring stick at the end of the season every year.

I want the team to go on a run and make or get close to the playoffs this year, that would go a long way for BA/Bear. But what if we fade instead? Is ownership going to stick with them no matter what the results are this year or next year?

 

[Jakey53]

All with the same ownership.

Are you just going to ignore the fiscal handcuffs BA was saddled with for nearly three years??

BA has said, many times, that he was given the green light from Meruelo to spend what he needed. Timing is all it is.

 

[Jakey53]

Neither Tourigny nor Armstrong are remotely close to losing their jobs.

Tourigny
1. Improvement in overall play. This hangup on standings points as the measure of improvement is lazy and if anything it actually does show improvement year-to-year.
2. Core player development. Great improvement in most every young player who is expected to contribute in the coming years. He's the right coach for this and considering that more prospects will be graduating up, he's exactly who you want there to take them to the next level.
3. Style of play. Guys are being allowed to take chances so they can reach their potential. They have so many high danger chances and aren't being asked to play conservatively with the safe play. They make mistakes so they can learn their limits instead of holding back to eke out 2 more wins this season when it doesn't matter. If Tourigny's job was on the line, you'd see him focus on getting the win at all costs. Look at how he benched Cooley a few weeks ago after he took a bad penalty. May have cost the team the game by not putting him back out there, but it's a lesson for Cooley and everyone else that will stand out and have greater influence going forward.

Armstrong
1. Clear focus is on future seasons and apparently this wasn't made clear to some when we entered the rebuild. He's not looking to jump up to the next stage prematurely. They'll get to the playoffs. If it takes an extra season so be it. The goal isn't "to make the playoffs" it's to win the cup. Don't sacrifice to make a step if it's not in the direction of the ultimate goal.
2. Job security moves. If he needed to win now, he'd have sacrificed the future. He hasn't.
3. Injuries. His replacements have been to hold things down to allow for line-ups that don't alter proper development. He didn't go out and throw away top draft picks and prospects to secure a few extra points in this season.
4. Best measure of success is the core, not some perimeter players who aren't going to be here that are affecting the overall team performance this season. A good number of players who are going to be part of the core aren't even up on the team yet. Guys like Stenlund and Kerfoot aren't likely to be here when the team is great (in all likelihood), but they're going to help the guys who will be here by teaching them how to play and leading by example.

Smith & Fan Expectations
1. It's his first year as owner. If you just acquired the team and knew it's performance the past few years, why would it be reasonable to set the expectation at the playoffs. The guy owns the Jazz who are wallowing at the bottom trying to rebuild. He knows it takes time and he's actually gotten to bypass the rock bottom seasons.
2. No baggage. Like it or not, Smith has had 50some games with the team and isn't going to hem and haw over how many years of rebuilding the last few years were. Why would he give management and the coaching staff some short leash coming into the first season?
3. Utah fans expectations. Most fans are entirely new to the sport and will tolerate however they play. They'll be good when the novelty factor has started to fade. There's no fan or media pressure for this team to start making short-term moves.

No issue with being critical with things to a degree, but altogether, there is no chance these guys are facing concerns about job security. Team improvement isn't a linear path.

Good post, and we all have our opinion, but remember, winning is all that matters to owners. Smith has two professional teams, both likely to miss the playoffs. He needs the playoffs. I think both BA and AT are safe for now, but expectations from fans AND owner will be much higher next year.

 

[Jakey53]

Let's not forget Detroit also replaced their Coach this year when he wasn't showing progress.

True, but let's not forget Detroit is farther along in their rebuild. Yzerman made a couple of mistakes on his HC hiring's. Now, with an experienced, successful HC, Detroit is starting to hit their stride. Let's see how this year ends, but AT could be on a short leash next year.

 

[Jakey53]

Is there anything pointing to internal dissatisfaction with either Tourigny or Armstrong? Because everything I've seen indicates they are both well-liked and doing a great job. Even if it's just an outwardly happy take from ownership, I'd think there's be some statement out there regarding what the expectation was for this season. I've not seen anything leading me to believe they aren't meeting expectations.

Both of your arguments appear to be that you expect more, which is fine, and obviously not meeting expectations results in looking at replacements, but I am not under the impression that your expectations align with ownerships.

I'm visiting family in the States for the next month, so happy to re-evaluate upon return, but my guess is it'll be a clear we're happy with the progress and what's up and coming for the roster, even if they're firmly out of the playoff picture at that point (no doubt, they aren't making it).

If I have said it once, I have said it a million times, winning is all that matters to fans and ownership. Playoffs bring in crazy amount of $$$$ for the owner. Smith has two teams not making the playoffs this year. The Jazz are years away, he needs Utah to make the playoffs next year. Owners have pride and ego almost to a fault. I don't think it matters where Utah ends up this year, I expect BA to go big name hunting from TTD to training camp.

 

[Jakey53]

I don't know what the ownership and management above BA are thinking right now. The quick team move certainly had them thinking stay the course. This summer we will find out where they are at and they might stay the course, that wouldn't surprise me.

Historically, GMs and coaches don't last past 5 and 4 years without some results, make playoffs or get close enough, 90+ points, to show for it. The question is how much longer does the, we are young, we were broke, we had injuries, how long does that bogie last for both of them before they have to have results? Points are the measuring stick at the end of the season every year.

I want the team to go on a run and make or get close to the playoffs this year, that would go a long way for BA/Bear. But what if we fade instead? Is ownership going to stick with them no matter what the results are this year or next year?

Smith like all owners think $$$$. Smith has two professional teams not in the playoffs this year. He is not getting any playoff $$$. Like you said, what is the ownership thinking? I believe BA and AT are safe going into next year, but the leash on AT should be short. And if BA is feeling the heat from the owners, we all know who goes first.

 

[Arizonatah Coyetis]

I will be disappointed for the first time if we don't have a 15 or so point jump in the standings next season. I figure the team has to eventually break out.

An exciting offseason is needed to take that next step. Like Jakey said, it's all about timing and I think the time to start moving assets is here. We're asset rich and in good shape for it. Just feels like the time BA has been saving up for has arrived.

 

[cobra427]

True, but let's not forget Detroit is farther along in their rebuild. Yzerman made a couple of mistakes on his HC hiring's. Now, with an experienced, successful HC, Detroit is starting to hit their stride. Let's see how this year ends, but AT could be on a short leash next year.

Steve Y saw the mistake and made the change, he didn't wait forever to change coaches years later.