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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

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trellaine201 said:
Pitching and defense wins.
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It's not more important than offence, at least looking at the last ten World Series winners

2011: St Louis Cardinals
R/G (Runs Per Game): 5’th
RA/G (Runs Against Per Game): 15’th

2012: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 8’th

2013: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 13’th

2014: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 9’th

2015: Kansas City Royals
R/G: 7’th
RA/G: 10’th

2016: Chicago Cubs
R/G: 3’rd
RA/G: 1’st

2017: Houston Astros
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 9’th

2018: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 6’th

2019: Washington Nationals
R/G: 6’th
RA/G: 9’th

2020: Los Angeles Dodgers
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 2’nd

Overall R/G Rank: 4.9
Overall RA/G Rank: 8.2
 
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Discoverer said:
I think the comparison to 2015 is appropriate: you look at making upgrades wherever you can rather than pigeon-holing yourself by looking for one specific upgrade (and risking overpaying or making poor moves out of desperation).

The 2014 Jays had a fantastic core and were among the top offensive teams in the league, but the desperately needed pitching help. So they made two big offseason moves... Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin. Then they were crushing the ball early in 2015 but still needed the pitching, so the first big move was... Troy Tulowitzki.

Obviously they ended up adding Price and got Stroman back, but imagine how 2015-16 would have gone if they had specifically added pitching instead of the stars they got? The closest pitcher signings to Martin that year were James Shields, Brandon McCarthy, and Ervin Santana. And if they passed on the Donaldson trade because they didn't want to use assets there because they wanted a pitcher. Ugh. That would have been brutal.
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Not to mention, those signings and trade didn't just help the offense, they were also big defensive upgrades. Getting a player like Springer and/or Lindor would be a good upgrade to our defense and help the Jays pitching.
 
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It makes sense just to target impact when you aren't one player away from a World Series contender.

Of course we need starting pitching. But if we signed Bauer and did nothing else, we aren't winning it all next year. If we were that close, I think you'd see them trade for a Snell or sign Bauer.

Just acquire impact players and see what holes you still have when the dust settles.
 
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hoc123 said:
It's not more important than offence, at least looking at the last ten World Series winners

2011: St Louis Cardinals
R/G (Runs Per Game): 5’th
RA/G (Runs Against Per Game): 15’th

2012: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 8’th

2013: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 13’th

2014: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 9’th

2015: Kansas City Royals
R/G: 7’th
RA/G: 10’th

2016: Chicago Cubs
R/G: 3’rd
RA/G: 1’st

2017: Houston Astros
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 9’th

2018: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 6’th

2019: Washington Nationals
R/G: 6’th
RA/G: 9’th

2020: Los Angeles Dodgers
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 2’nd

Overall R/G Rank: 4.9
Overall RA/G Rank: 8.2
Click to expand...

This makes intuitive sense. You can be the best team in the league at pitching and defence and it can never actually win you a game because it can't score you runs. Pitching and D help ensure you don't lose, but "winning" and "not losing" are not the same thing.

The reality is that you have to be good at both things to win a WS. But if you're going to be better at one than the other, be better offensively. No team on that list was worse than middle-of-the-pack on the defensive side of things, but at the same time no team that wasn't the mini-kinda-dynasty Giants was outside the top 10 offensively.
 
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hoc123 said:
It's not more important than offence, at least looking at the last ten World Series winners

2011: St Louis Cardinals
R/G (Runs Per Game): 5’th
RA/G (Runs Against Per Game): 15’th

2012: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 8’th

2013: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 13’th

2014: San Francisco Giants
R/G: 12’th
RA/G: 9’th

2015: Kansas City Royals
R/G: 7’th
RA/G: 10’th

2016: Chicago Cubs
R/G: 3’rd
RA/G: 1’st

2017: Houston Astros
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 9’th

2018: Boston Red Sox
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 6’th

2019: Washington Nationals
R/G: 6’th
RA/G: 9’th

2020: Los Angeles Dodgers
R/G: 1’st
RA/G: 2’nd

Overall R/G Rank: 4.9
Overall RA/G Rank: 8.2
Click to expand...
Thank you.
 
phillipmike said:
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“Reached 94” sounds inconsistent and concerns me for a guy that has a career four-seam fastball average of 95.9 MPH and is coming off a 2020 season in which he averaged a career low 92.8 MPH on his heater. Injuries including a recent back surgery and a flexor strain has me down on his outlook as anything more than a 1 year + team option flier personally.
 
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Garlando said:
“Reached 94” sounds inconsistent and concerns me for a guy that has a career four-seam fastball average of 95.9 MPH and is coming off a 2020 season in which he averaged a career low 92.8 MPH on his heater. Injuries including a recent back surgery and a flexor strain has me down on his outlook as anything more than a 1 year + team option flier personally.
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I'm of the belief that Paxton would be nothing but gravy as a #4 if he stayed healthy for us. If we went into next season with him as the #3, I'd be nervous. The Jays are going to have to get Bauer or trade for another arm if they're serious this season. Good news is, they're supposedly looking to spend and other teams are looking to shed salary so the trade route is better than most years for SP.
 
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ktownhockey said:
I would take Walker back 100 percent. He seemed to enjoy his time here and would be a solid 2-4 starter.
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I'd lean more towards him being a #4/#5 type, but I'd like to have him back as well. He walks a ton of batters and has a pretty terrible FIP, which will eventually catch up to him. As long as it's a short term deal, I'd be happy.
 
Man Bear Pig said:
I'd lean more towards him being a #4/#5 type, but I'd like to have him back as well. He walks a ton of batters and has a pretty terrible FIP, which will eventually catch up to him. As long as it's a short term deal, I'd be happy.
Click to expand...

Walker was our 2nd best SP in the playoffs.
 
Man Bear Pig said:
I'd lean more towards him being a #4/#5 type, but I'd like to have him back as well. He walks a ton of batters and has a pretty terrible FIP, which will eventually catch up to him. As long as it's a short term deal, I'd be happy.
Click to expand...

His walk rate jumped a bit with the Jays, but it's pretty much always been average or better.
 
The Blue Jays Have a Catching Puzzle To Solve
Since then, the script has been flipped. Jansen flopped at the plate in his first full big league season, hitting .207/.279/.360 for a 68 wRC+ in 2019. He managed to improve upon that somewhat last year, but not by much, inching up to a wRC+ of 89. Fortunately for Jansen, while his bat has faltered, his glove has excelled: Over the last two seasons, he ranks 10th among all catchers in framing runs and seventh in overall defensive value. If Jansen’s defense is legitimate and he starts to swing the bat the way he did in the minors, he may be a top-five catcher in baseball. But if his bat never recovers and his defense is a mirage, he’s going to struggle to keep a job.
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In fact, it’s likely to get bigger. Riley Adams, a 24-year-old former third-round pick in 2017, has done nothing but hit in the minors and could start 2021 in Triple-A. Gabriel Moreno, meanwhile, is only 20, but he could also find himself near the upper minors next season, having shot up Blue Jays prospect lists thanks to strong offensive performances and good defensive projection. It’s unlikely Moreno is banging down the door of the big leagues in 2021, but Adams very well may be.
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This is why im not big on Realmuto for the Jays. We have players that have not had time to develop and Realmuto would block them. Sure you can move Jansen and/or McGuire in a trade then when Kirk, Adams and/or Moreno is ready you still have Realmuto and likely have to move them too. Plus we would be selling extremely low on all our catchers.

Jays have the best catching depth in the league and spent years building that up, you dont spend top dollar on a catcher, albeit the best catcher in the game to block them before you know what you have in them. That is just poor player development and potentially assest management. Unless you are getting a steal on Realmuto's contract, i'm not signing him. Since he is asking for $200M and 5+ years - im staying far away because i know it will take $120M+ to land him. Just a poor investment in my eyes.
 
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phillipmike said:
The Blue Jays Have a Catching Puzzle To Solve





This is why im not big on Realmuto for the Jays. We have players that have not had time to develop and Realmuto would block them. Sure you can move Jansen and/or McGuire in a trade then when Kirk, Adams and/or Moreno is ready you still have Realmuto and likely have to move them too. Plus we would be selling extremely low on all our catchers.

Jays have the best catching depth in the league and spent years building that up, you dont spend top dollar on a catcher, albeit the best catcher in the game to block them before you know what you have in them. That is just poor player development and potentially assest management. Unless you are getting a steal on Realmuto's contract, i'm not signing him. Since he is asking for $200M and 5+ years - im staying far away because i know it will take $120M+ to land him. Just a poor investment in my eyes.
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Agreed, I'd rather put the money towards pitching or a CF or infield upgrade

That's where we can get the most bang for our buck imo
 
To be fair, hasn't been much smoke around Jays and Realmuto likely for those reasons above. Much more rumblings on Springer, DJ, Kim and a little on Bauer.

Realmuto seems like an option if we miss everywhere else and his ask comes way down because there are no teams willing to pay him and we get a reasonable deal.

The rumor he wanted like 7 or 8 years and $200 million is a bit insane.
 
phillipmike said:
The Blue Jays Have a Catching Puzzle To Solve




This is why im not big on Realmuto for the Jays. We have players that have not had time to develop and Realmuto would block them. Sure you can move Jansen and/or McGuire in a trade then when Kirk, Adams and/or Moreno is ready you still have Realmuto and likely have to move them too. Plus we would be selling extremely low on all our catchers.

Jays have the best catching depth in the league and spent years building that up, you dont spend top dollar on a catcher, albeit the best catcher in the game to block them before you know what you have in them. That is just poor player development and potentially assest management. Unless you are getting a steal on Realmuto's contract, i'm not signing him. Since he is asking for $200M and 5+ years - im staying far away because i know it will take $120M+ to land him. Just a poor investment in my eyes.
Click to expand...
Do you realize how volatile catching prospects are? How many catchers of the future have we had that never made it (Quiroz, Jimenez, Phelps, Cash, Pentecost)? Not saying we have to sign Realmuto, but he's the best two-way catcher in baseball at the most difficult position to develop. Remember Russel Martin's impact in his first two years in Toronto before his age-decline? Realmuto is as good as Russell, and two years younger.
 
And if those prospects succeed and if realmuto has a front loaded contract he wouldn’t be hard to trade.
 
Also, it seems like catching position is one where having a veteran teacher, who is the best at his profession on defense would be of most help towards developing a young C prospect.
 
TheMadHatTrick said:
Do you realize how volatile catching prospects are? How many catchers of the future have we had that never made it (Quiroz, Jimenez, Phelps, Cash, Pentecost)? Not saying we have to sign Realmuto, but he's the best two-way catcher in baseball at the most difficult position to develop. Remember Russel Martin's impact in his first two years in Toronto before his age-decline? Realmuto is as good as Russell, and two years younger.
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Realmuto is way better than Martin. He's also considered one of the best leaders out there which makes him that much more attractive considering our young core.

But my preference would still be to add from the likes of Springer and DJ first and go to Realmuto to n case those two decide to sign elsewhere.
 
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