Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.
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Five questions with Keith Law about the Blue Jays' top prospects - The Athletic
McGrath: Now that Manoah and, for the purpose of this question, Pearson, have graduated to the majors, which pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system are you the highest on?
Law: Their system is incredibly skewed toward bats right now. Gunnar Hoglund might be their top pitching prospect now, although there are guys in the lower levels like Eric Pardinho or Sem Robberse who could take that title this year.
The Blue Jays drafted Hoglund, a right-hander, out of Ole Miss in the first round in 2021. He missed most of his season because of Tommy John surgery but evaluators suggest Hoglund has a high probability to remain a starter because of his repeatable delivery and track record of strike-throwing. After Hoglund was drafted, Law wrote, “Once recovered he should be able to move quickly and settle in as a fourth starter, maybe a tick better.”
Pardinho missed most of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, while still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Interestingly, the Blue Jays chose not to add him to their 40-man roster at the November deadline, leaving him exposed for the Rule 5 draft. However, the lockout forced the draft to be postponed indefinitely. The Blue Jays don’t likely have to worry about losing him since teams wouldn’t be able to keep a 21-year-old who’s missed two seasons and hasn’t pitched above Low A on their 26-man roster all year.
Robberse, 20, a prospect out of the Netherlands, spent his 2021 season split between Low-A Dunedin and High-A Vancouver. He had a 4.36 ERA over 88 2/3 innings between the two levels with 90 strikeouts and 38 walks. Baseball America selected Robberse’s curveball as the best in the entire system.
A clear strength of Toronto’s system is infield prospects. After Moreno, Orelvis Martinez is considered the top position player. In 2021, he hit .261/.345/.549 in 98 games between Low-A Dunedin and High-A Vancouver. In July, he went on a spree and hit 10 home runs in 10 games.
During his midseason rankings, Law wrote of Martinez: “He has tremendous bat speed and the ball comes off his bat extremely well, while he’s played mostly shortstop this year and has the plus arm and soft hands for it … he might move over to third, but this hit/power tool combination is going to play anywhere, and it’s going to come down mostly to how good his plate discipline — which still lags his other tools — becomes.”
McGrath: On the position player side, is there a prospect — perhaps other than Moreno and Orelvis Martinez — who you expect could make significant strides in 2022 who we should all be paying attention to?
Law: Estiven Machado. He played in just one game last summer due to a hamstring injury, but after the Moreno and Orelvis tier, he’s the best bet to take a leap.
In his previous organization ranking Law said of Machado, who was signed as an international free agent in 2019: “He’s quick and athletic, already fairly physical for age 18, with loose hands at the plate and the potential for average power or even a tick more. He’s an average runner but has the hands and arm for shortstop if he can keep his quickness and agility as he gets older.”
In his 2021 organizational rankings, Law had the Blue Jays as the third-best farm system in baseball: “They’ve drafted very well in the last two years, including landing the player I had at No. 1 on my board in 2020 in Austin Martin; they’ve found a slew of high-upside position players in international free agency; and they’ve done well acquiring prospects in trades, enough so that they’ve been able to flip the script and trade away some lower-tier guys in deals.”
McGrath: Your organizational rankings come out in the new year — but can you give us a sneak preview of the Blue Jays system? What are its strengths, its weaknesses and has the loss of Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson hurt?
Law: As I said, it’s almost all position players, which will hurt their overall ranking — they graduated some pitchers and many of the pitchers they already have were hurt or didn’t have good years. The bats, though, are very strong, and deep, from the draft and from international free agency. Losing Martin hurts — I still think there’s upside there, but the truth is he wasn’t as good as advertised this year between the hand injury and a swing change — but I still think Woods Richardson is more likely to end up a reliever.
McGrath: Now that Manoah and, for the purpose of this question, Pearson, have graduated to the majors, which pitching prospect in the Blue Jays system are you the highest on?
Law: Their system is incredibly skewed toward bats right now. Gunnar Hoglund might be their top pitching prospect now, although there are guys in the lower levels like Eric Pardinho or Sem Robberse who could take that title this year.
The Blue Jays drafted Hoglund, a right-hander, out of Ole Miss in the first round in 2021. He missed most of his season because of Tommy John surgery but evaluators suggest Hoglund has a high probability to remain a starter because of his repeatable delivery and track record of strike-throwing. After Hoglund was drafted, Law wrote, “Once recovered he should be able to move quickly and settle in as a fourth starter, maybe a tick better.”
Pardinho missed most of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, while still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Interestingly, the Blue Jays chose not to add him to their 40-man roster at the November deadline, leaving him exposed for the Rule 5 draft. However, the lockout forced the draft to be postponed indefinitely. The Blue Jays don’t likely have to worry about losing him since teams wouldn’t be able to keep a 21-year-old who’s missed two seasons and hasn’t pitched above Low A on their 26-man roster all year.
Robberse, 20, a prospect out of the Netherlands, spent his 2021 season split between Low-A Dunedin and High-A Vancouver. He had a 4.36 ERA over 88 2/3 innings between the two levels with 90 strikeouts and 38 walks. Baseball America selected Robberse’s curveball as the best in the entire system.
A clear strength of Toronto’s system is infield prospects. After Moreno, Orelvis Martinez is considered the top position player. In 2021, he hit .261/.345/.549 in 98 games between Low-A Dunedin and High-A Vancouver. In July, he went on a spree and hit 10 home runs in 10 games.
During his midseason rankings, Law wrote of Martinez: “He has tremendous bat speed and the ball comes off his bat extremely well, while he’s played mostly shortstop this year and has the plus arm and soft hands for it … he might move over to third, but this hit/power tool combination is going to play anywhere, and it’s going to come down mostly to how good his plate discipline — which still lags his other tools — becomes.”
McGrath: On the position player side, is there a prospect — perhaps other than Moreno and Orelvis Martinez — who you expect could make significant strides in 2022 who we should all be paying attention to?
Law: Estiven Machado. He played in just one game last summer due to a hamstring injury, but after the Moreno and Orelvis tier, he’s the best bet to take a leap.
In his previous organization ranking Law said of Machado, who was signed as an international free agent in 2019: “He’s quick and athletic, already fairly physical for age 18, with loose hands at the plate and the potential for average power or even a tick more. He’s an average runner but has the hands and arm for shortstop if he can keep his quickness and agility as he gets older.”
In his 2021 organizational rankings, Law had the Blue Jays as the third-best farm system in baseball: “They’ve drafted very well in the last two years, including landing the player I had at No. 1 on my board in 2020 in Austin Martin; they’ve found a slew of high-upside position players in international free agency; and they’ve done well acquiring prospects in trades, enough so that they’ve been able to flip the script and trade away some lower-tier guys in deals.”
McGrath: Your organizational rankings come out in the new year — but can you give us a sneak preview of the Blue Jays system? What are its strengths, its weaknesses and has the loss of Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson hurt?
Law: As I said, it’s almost all position players, which will hurt their overall ranking — they graduated some pitchers and many of the pitchers they already have were hurt or didn’t have good years. The bats, though, are very strong, and deep, from the draft and from international free agency. Losing Martin hurts — I still think there’s upside there, but the truth is he wasn’t as good as advertised this year between the hand injury and a swing change — but I still think Woods Richardson is more likely to end up a reliever.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
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Yes. The posting process is held in abeyance until the league returns from the lockout. I believe the timeline restarts when the lockout ends.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
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dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
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If the Asians leagues start I’m assuming he just signs at least a one year deal and stays there
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
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I think fans should still be upset when Moreno outplays every catcher at camp and still gets sent down.
Please remember how to run a franchise with the goal of winning a championship.
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
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No they really shouldn’t. Spring doesn’t really tell the full story and he didn’t play many games above high a ball as of yet. We have time get him up. It’s better that he start in AAA and let them find value for the other catchers if needed during the season first. I think we’ll see one of them moved before or during spring trading to clear room with Reese as the number 3 although he also won’t clear waivers this time I don’t think
by remembering that winning games in April is just as important as winning games in September when you're crammed inside baseball's hardest division.
We've seen whispers for awhile now that they're shopping catchers in trades to upgrade elsewhere on the diamond and that is my assumption as well, which is why I believe in an avenue for Moreno to be on the opening day roster. If Kirk heads for Cleveland or Oakland, I really don't want the team to be giving at bats to a streaky Reese McGuire.
It's becoming less uncommon to see prospects rocket through the minors in their early 20s and if he looks ready for the majors then I think you have to pull the trigger.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
And are those 16 days worth of games as important as having an extra year of player control?
My main issue with the quote was Law saying we probably won't see Moreno until "mid-year". If it's just service time reasons then I can live with that.
AllDay28
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- Oct 15, 2015
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djdev
Registered User
i think they would dfa reese and not think twice about it(they already have this past year). the other 2 i agree.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
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Jays made it through to the final 5 and have immunity this round.
Vote to eliminate one team from MLB
Someone hates the Jays so much, they used bots to vote them out. Owner of the poll caught on and had to change the platform to prevent bots.
Vote to eliminate Arizona.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
- 12,974
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Uh, that's exactly what you do, actually. Except take the loss part. You take a gain instead. It's called dealing from a position of strength to shore up weaknesses.
Keep in mind service time is one of the big sticking points of the CBA negotiations, so it's hard to imagine how much that will come into play next year.
Rosenthal out at MLB for posting an objective article about the commissioner's role in jeopardizing the season.
LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
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