Maybe he shouldn't do that again then. Maybe it was just the injury but he faded hard in the second half of the season.
Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.
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Maybe he shouldn't do that again then. Maybe it was just the injury but he faded hard in the second half of the season.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I think with Teoscar when it comes to his offence there are two things that stand out
1) He's had some freaky high BABIPs the last couple of seasons. For a guy that's quick but not a burner and not an infield ball-in-play hitter (the types that tend to cause weird swingy BABIP numbers based on how well they beat those grounder to 1st) that's a little weird.
2) His big K-rate dip last year is a little unusual considering he's been a big swing-and-miss guy for his whole MLB career and he hasn't put up a rate <25% in a full-ish season since AA like 5-6 years ago. So the question becomes is this a new adjustment to stabilize around or are we going to see some regression.
Not saying I don't believe in Teoscar, because even if he regresses a bit he's still damn good offensively. But I can see the question marks that inform that conservative projection.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
His xStats aren’t far off from his numbers though so I don’t know if we can keep saying his inflated BABIP is a legitimate concern. Last two years he’s barrelled at a high % and his LD rate skyrocketed. Teo profiles similarly to JD Martinez.
Yeah, he has clear swing-and-miss issues, but aside from that his Statcast page is glorious. He hits the ball as well as almost anyone in the league, plus his sprint speed is 85th percentile... that kind of profile is likely going to provide a high BABIP.
Michael HOMERUNing
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- Feb 24, 2019
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Jram is not going to be had for Gurriel, Kirk, and Groshans. That’s just an underwhelming package for a top 5 player. He’s probably going to cost Martinez, Kirk, Hoglund, and Pearson, which is too much for a guy who won’t be here longer than 2 years. I would try for a guy like K’Bryan Hayes. Offers gold glove caliber defense and sky high potential with the bat, especially in this lineup. Will cost a lot less than Ramirez and will be here longer
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djdev
Registered User
i think u replace one of the prospects with gurriel and its a fine deal. people thought barrios wasnt going to be here longterm either, theres 0 way of knowing.
im trading any prospect not named moreno for this guy tbh.
did u see what they got for lindor and carrasco combined??? less than martinez,lopez,pearson, kirk package and by a decent amount.
I doubt Hayes would be much cheaper than Ramirez, especially when you factor in that Pittsburgh has absolutely no reason to trade away five years of their 25-year-old potential star while they're rebuilding.
ShaneFalco
Registered User
Why the hell would the pirates trade Hayes? Dude is under control and offers Gold glove caliber defense and sky high potential. Sometimes ya gotta think man.....
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Conceptually interesting but the piece is like 95% methodology, 4% results and 1% analysis.
If you're going to showe which orgs are quantitatively doing a good/bad job with development, talk to me about who they are, why they ranked highly/poorly in terms of specific results, and what that could mean from the standpoint of player identification and instruction. Instead we got "look at all the math I did. Oh, and here were the results."
And I say this as someone who likes math as an evaluative tool.
Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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I only skimmed through the article. The gist I got was a wRC+ at a certain level equaltes to this wRC+ at the MLB, this level at AAA, this at AA, etc(kind of like NHLe), the player who got that wRC+ actually got this wRC+ when they moved up 2 levels which was better than expected so their team was good at developing?
Did I miss the point?
Did I miss the point?
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
As I understood it: Those conversions (wRC+ for hitters, FIP for pitchers) were to set for standardization and an aging curve so you could compare prospects regardless of age and level of play within the system. From there the point was to use a variety of factors (past performance, general player progression expectations, etc) to do a Steamer-style projection model of how they would play when moved up and got older, then compare those projections to what they actually did. If players outperformed the projection that was to the credit of the team.
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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Heh, that's funny.
I'd do it. I'd much rather keep Pearson as a bullpen option and I think people are giving up on Biggio way too quickly, and the As usually target cheaper and more intriguing prospects, so I imagine they'd take Kirk over one of the other two...but I'd do that trade if I can't find anything else.
The thing is Pearson addresses another pressing issue: bullpen. And potentially rotation, as well. Another starter is nice but now we're talking about dealing from a position of weakness. I'd rather have a potential 1-2 KO combo in Romano and Pearson and run with the 4 starters we have, which isn't too bad as is, then 5 solid starters-which I love, sure-and one solid closer option with the hope the rest of the bullpen will hold up this year (and "hope" is the best you can ever expect from a bullpen). 4 good starters, at least one more decent starter, and two killer shutdown relievers will win a whole lot of games, but 5 good starters and one shutdown reliever...well, will still win a lot of games, but there is more room for error when you're relying on one guy.
Of course, then you add Chapman to the package...and now it's a much tougher decision.
I'd most likely do this trade but I don't like giving up Biggio because now the Jays have a hole at 2B.
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
- Mar 3, 2008
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My damn phone wiped my first response so I'll try again. I get what you're in regards to both Biggio and Pearson. I 'd also add that Smith is a solid sleeper pick up. Biggio is a good young piece and great at getting on base but his defence anywhere but second is not good as we know. I'm comfortable moving him in a deal like this. Pearson is the real wild card here. Injuries have derailed him quite a bit. He hasn't built up his arm and is likely destined to be a pen arm at least with us although he very much could be a lights out one. In saying that I take a good/great starter over a pen arm everyday. With some exceptions obviously. \ Our window is now and pitching is key. Manoah could regress a bit, Ryu could have another less than stellar season. I'd be very happy to add another solid rotation arm. You are right that that we need another back end pen arm but relying on Pearson at this point for anything is a pretty big gamble.
This is one of those trades that could work out better for the A's over the life of it but one that certainly makes us better for our window now. But the A's could essentially end up with an average 2b, a oft injured pen arm and a AAAA infielder and it not being a very good deal for them. It's a gamble I'd be comfortable taking
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
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Espinal could move to 2b and Lopez could be the utility infielder or vice versa. I do think in a big trade like this a key piece kind of needs to be a catcher.
Former TA of mine. Very intelligent and a great teacher!
phillipmike
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MLB trade scenarios: Jim Bowden evaluates your proposals for Matt Olson, Bryan Reynolds, Luis Castillo and more - The Athletic
Blue Jays trade C Alejandro Kirk, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and SS/3B Jordan Groshans to A’s for LHP Sean Manaea — Jack H.
The A’s don’t need Kirk with Sean Murphy behind the plate, but your offer is too lopsided in favor of Oakland anyway. Therefore, how about an offer of Gurriel and Groshans for Manaea? If I’m Oakland, I make that trade, but if I’m Toronto, I’m not trading Groshans in a Manaea deal. I think Groshans will be an above-average big-league hitter with above-average power.
Blue Jays trade C Alejandro Kirk, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and SS/3B Jordan Groshans to A’s for LHP Sean Manaea — Jack H.
The A’s don’t need Kirk with Sean Murphy behind the plate, but your offer is too lopsided in favor of Oakland anyway. Therefore, how about an offer of Gurriel and Groshans for Manaea? If I’m Oakland, I make that trade, but if I’m Toronto, I’m not trading Groshans in a Manaea deal. I think Groshans will be an above-average big-league hitter with above-average power.
phillipmike
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The Toronto Blue Jays Best Pitches
1. Kevin Gausman's Splitter
31.7 CSW%, 24.3 SwStr%, .189 wOBA, 17.5 Pitch Value, 40.9% Usage
2. Jordan Romano's Fastball
28.8 CSW%, 14.7 SwStr%, .234 wOBA, 10.0 Pitch Value, 63.2% Usage
3. José Berríos' Curveball
34.5 CSW%, 14.6 SwStr%, .245 wOBA, 1.5 Pitch Value, 30.5% Usage
4. Alek Manoah's Slider
33.5 CSW%, 17.8 SwStr%, .238 wOBA, 6.3 Pitch Value, 26.6% Usage
5. Hyun Jin Ryu's Changeup
2021 Stats: 25.3 CSW%, 14.7 SwStr%, .310 wOBA, .3 Pitch Value, 25.5% Usage
1. Kevin Gausman's Splitter
31.7 CSW%, 24.3 SwStr%, .189 wOBA, 17.5 Pitch Value, 40.9% Usage
2. Jordan Romano's Fastball
28.8 CSW%, 14.7 SwStr%, .234 wOBA, 10.0 Pitch Value, 63.2% Usage
3. José Berríos' Curveball
34.5 CSW%, 14.6 SwStr%, .245 wOBA, 1.5 Pitch Value, 30.5% Usage
4. Alek Manoah's Slider
33.5 CSW%, 17.8 SwStr%, .238 wOBA, 6.3 Pitch Value, 26.6% Usage
5. Hyun Jin Ryu's Changeup
2021 Stats: 25.3 CSW%, 14.7 SwStr%, .310 wOBA, .3 Pitch Value, 25.5% Usage
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