Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Edition III: Spring Training Madness (Spring Training is over. Season starts on Thursday, Mar 30)

[Discoverer]

He's the most valuable player in baseball because the rules have been changed to make it so.

Over the past 2 years, he's been the 26th most productive hitter by fWAR and the 10th most productive pitcher by the same measure. He has .5 combined fWAR more than Judge over the two seasons.

I would love to have him on Toronto, but people talk about him the same way that they talked about Jeter when he was playing.

This is completely ridiculous. The rule they changed (that he can DH after being pulled as a pitcher) got him something like 20 extra at bats last year. The added value he gets out of it is incremental, and he would be almost exactly as valuable if that rule wasn't in place.

As for whether or not he's the best player in baseball, it's close enough that you can argue either way, but I don't find "He's barely in first by WAR over the last two years" to be a particularly strong case against him.

 

[theaub]

The real take here is that Judge is underrated, not that Ohtani is overrated.

 

[canucksfan]

Weak lineup but week today and it's opening day!

 

[theaub]

delete (the internet got me)

 

[ShaneFalco]

Weak lineup but week today and it's opening day!

Be nice to have him as an option

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

This is completely ridiculous. The rule they changed (that he can DH after being pulled as a pitcher) got him something like 20 extra at bats last year. The added value he gets out of it is incremental, and he would be almost exactly as valuable if that rule wasn't in place.

As for whether or not he's the best player in baseball, it's close enough that you can argue either way, but I don't find "He's barely in first by WAR over the last two years" to be a particularly strong case against him.

This is in response to him being the best athlete in sports. The difference between McDavid and the rest of the NHL is much bigger than Ohtani to the rest of baseball. He could become that, but it hasn't happened yet.

Also, there is a second rule that was changed as well. Ohtani counts as a hitter for the Angels so that they get to carry 14 pitchers unlike every other team in baseball. It's that rule that makes him by far the most VALUABLE player in baseball even if whether he is the best is debatable.

 

[Bjindaho]

The real take here is that Judge is underrated, not that Ohtani is overrated.

Judge is very underrated. Ohtani is overrated in the sense that he's arguably the best baseball player overall, but it isn't a massive gap.

 

[saska sault]

Pitch clock + regular season = good
Pitch clock + post season = bad

Judge is very underrated. Ohtani is overrated in the sense that he's arguably the best baseball player overall, but it isn't a massive gap.

It really is. Judge cant run like Ohtani, cant pitch at all... Never mind throw 8 inning, 10k games. Ohtani closing the WBC final was just showing he is playing little league still. While Judge has the homerun totals, I would love to see a spray chart of Ohtani if he played at Yankee stadium... Especially with that short porch as a leftie.

 

[Bjindaho]

Pitch clock + regular season = good
Pitch clock + post season = bad



It really is. Judge cant run like Ohtani, cant pitch at all... Never mind throw 8 inning, 10k games. Ohtani closing the WBC final was just showing he is playing little league still. While Judge has the homerun totals, I would love to see a spray chart of Ohtani if he played at Yankee stadium... Especially with that short porch as a leftie.

Fun fact: Ohtani's baserunning was worth significantly LESS than Judge's. Just because you think he can't run doesn't make it so. Also, Judge plays the field every day, where Ohtani pitches one out of every 5 (hence why advanced statistics are being used).

According to Statcast, Ohtani would actually have hit less HR in Yankee stadium

Shohei Ohtani Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com

(2023) Avg Exit Velocity: 91.5, Hard Hit %: 51.6, wOBA: .353, xwOBA: .406, Barrel %: 14.5.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Also, Judge throws 92.3 MPH, so he probably could pitch if he wanted to.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Fun fact: Ohtani's baserunning was worth significantly LESS than Judge's. Just because you think he can't run doesn't make it so. Also, Judge plays the field every day, where Ohtani pitches one out of every 5 (hence why advanced statistics are being used).

According to Statcast, Ohtani would actually have hit less HR in Yankee stadium

Shohei Ohtani Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com

(2023) Avg Exit Velocity: 91.5, Hard Hit %: 51.6, wOBA: .353, xwOBA: .406, Barrel %: 14.5.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Also, Judge throws 92.3 MPH, so he probably could pitch if he wanted to.

Just being able to throw hard doesn't mean it would translate into a major league calibre pitcher. Saying he could pitch if he wanted to is a big time stretch. Also does he throw 92.3 from the outfield or clocked off the mound?

 

[saska sault]

Fun fact: Ohtani's baserunning was worth significantly LESS than Judge's. Just because you think he can't run doesn't make it so. Also, Judge plays the field every day, where Ohtani pitches one out of every 5 (hence why advanced statistics are being used).

According to Statcast, Ohtani would actually have hit less HR in Yankee stadium

Shohei Ohtani Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com

(2023) Avg Exit Velocity: 91.5, Hard Hit %: 51.6, wOBA: .353, xwOBA: .406, Barrel %: 14.5.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Also, Judge throws 92.3 MPH, so he probably could pitch if he wanted to.

Nah, Ohtani everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Fun fact: Ohtani's baserunning was worth significantly LESS than Judge's. Just because you think he can't run doesn't make it so. Also, Judge plays the field every day, where Ohtani pitches one out of every 5 (hence why advanced statistics are being used).

According to Statcast, Ohtani would actually have hit less HR in Yankee stadium

Shohei Ohtani Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com

(2023) Avg Exit Velocity: 91.5, Hard Hit %: 51.6, wOBA: .353, xwOBA: .406, Barrel %: 14.5.

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Also, Judge throws 92.3 MPH, so he probably could pitch if he wanted to.

There's more to pitching than just throwing hard. Throwing 92mph in the MLB would be meh unless you had some filthy movement.

Ohtani is just the more valuable player.

 

[Bjindaho]

Just being able to throw hard doesn't mean it would translate into a major league calibre pitcher. Saying he could pitch if he wanted to is a big time stretch. Also does he throw 92.3 from the outfield or clocked off the mound?

He hasn't pitched since high school, so that is from the outfield. He's also known to tone down his throws for accuracy, so he can likely throw harder than that off the mound.

Ohtani is a unicorn that baseball has never seen. Football has had a couple, whether it be Deion Sanders being the best defensive/special teams player while also being good offensively, or the sheer terror that was young Michael Vick (he was by far the fastest player in the NFL while simultaneously having the strongest arm so Atlanta could line up 4 WR and Vick could basically make offense happen from there).

The NBA is weird because they don't really value varying skillsets the same way (everybody should be good at everything).

The closest NHL example I can think of was Brent Burns who has a Norris and put up 48 points in 69 games as a 2nd line center.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He hasn't pitched since high school, so that is from the outfield. He's also known to tone down his throws for accuracy, so he can likely throw harder than that off the mound.

Ohtani is a unicorn that baseball has never seen. Football has had a couple, whether it be Deion Sanders being the best defensive/special teams player while also being good offensively, or the sheer terror that was young Michael Vick (he was by far the fastest player in the NFL while simultaneously having the strongest arm so Atlanta could line up 4 WR and Vick could basically make offense happen from there).

The NBA is weird because they don't really value varying skillsets the same way (everybody should be good at everything).

The closest NHL example I can think of was Brent Burns who has a Norris and put up 48 points in 69 games as a 2nd line center.

A pull down or outfield throw typically adds velo compared to the mound. You get the chance to add a lot more momentum behind your throw in the outfield then you do standing on the mound.

 

[Eyedea]

Pitch clock + regular season = good
Pitch clock + post season = bad



It really is. Judge cant run like Ohtani, cant pitch at all... Never mind throw 8 inning, 10k games. Ohtani closing the WBC final was just showing he is playing little league still. While Judge has the homerun totals, I would love to see a spray chart of Ohtani if he played at Yankee stadium... Especially with that short porch as a leftie.

wRC+ takes all of those park effects into account for us. The 65 point gap between Judge and Ohtani in 2022 is enough to illustrate just how much more valuable Judge's bat is. We're talking a 5.5 WAR difference on just the bat alone (based on FG's batting runs metric). That equates to what Ohtani put up on the pitching side. Then bring in positional adjustment and... yup, Judge was worth more than Ohtani and deservedly the MVP in 2022.

Ohtani is a special player but unless he was playing RF on his non-pitching days his hitting value will always be hampered by his positional adjustment. Judge on the other hand is J-Hey/Mookie levels of elite at RF and is also above average in CF.

 

[thehockeysong]

Nah, Ohtani everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

Moving forward or this past season?

 

[Bjindaho]

Moving forward or this past season?

Moving forward, there is a real chance that Ohtani pulls a McDavid and pulls away as the best player in baseball. There's also the possibility that he hangs around the pack so while he is close the rest (or better), he is far more valuable (because the Angels are the only team in baseball allowed to have a 9 man bullpen).

 

[theaub]

Just want to reiterate how good Judge was last year. Obviously there's some regression incoming but Judge had the 7th best post-integration single season last year (ahead of him is early 2000's Bonds x3, prime Mantle x2 and prime Musial).

Even if you take Ohtani's 2021 hitting and 2022 pitching he still doesn't hit Judge's WAR last year.

Ohtani is definitely the coolest player by a significant margin (and there's also the roster flexibility that doesn't get accounted for in WAR) but it is close.

The upside(?) of this is when Judge inevitably regresses from a health perspective the Yankees are screwed.

Also I am glad to announce that Cy Kikuchi is back for another rotation turn.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Watch Bo eclipse both of them and win MVP this year

 

[Bjindaho]

Watch Bo eclipse both of them and win MVP this year

If Bo could get out of his own head defensively, he could realistically be up there. He posted a higher wRC+ than Lindor last year (which led to him finishing 28th in hitter fWAR).

I could really see Ohtani having a down year.

He's pitched 1 game with the pitch clock and unless the MLB modifies another rule to benefit him and the Angels, he will have a much quicker turnaround between hitting/running and pitching.

 

[Bjindaho]

From Kikuchi's Sportsnet page:
The southpaw got stretched out to 76 pitches, but only 46 of them went for strikes. Kikuchi looked good early in camp but his control has begun to desert him again with Opening Day growing closer, and he now has a 16:9 K:BB through 13 spring innings despite a superficially strong 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The 31-year-old has a career 5.02 ERA and 3.67 BB/9 since coming to MLB in 2019, and there's been no real sign this spring he's going to be any more reliable in 2023.

Something to keep in mind is that while his walks are still high, the hits against have fallen off dramatically. A 1.15 WHIP would inherently lead to a better year because there are simply less guys on to score. His best two years with Seattle involved a 1.30 and a 1.32 WHIP, though he's also kept the ball in the park at a level he never had before (which could even xFIP vs ERA). Thus, there is a real possibility that we get a 2/3 quality Kikuchi if the spring stuff carries into the regular season (albeit with the possibility of some frustrating starts).

 

[canucksfan]

Solid outing for Kikuchi. 5IP and only 4 base runners. 9 SO as well.

 

[theaub]

Solid outing for Kikuchi. 5IP and only 4 base runners. 9 SO as well.

66% strikes too (although <50% FPS).

 

[Bjindaho]

Ray was an all-star for Arizona with a 3.94BB/9 and a 1.15 WHIP. His great year with Toronto was similar only cutting the walks down to 2.42.

Kikuchi finished the preseason with 5 BB/9, but a ridiculous K rate and virtually no hits. An improvement on that of any reasonable margin and he's going to be incredibly hard to hit (edit: final WHIP is 1.06)