Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition II - Winter Meeting Madness

[Woodman19]

His hamstring was to blame for that. He was getting back to performing well.

Thats gonna be a no from me dawg

 

[Amadeus]

Thats gonna be a no from me dawg

Lol okay.

 

[Bjindaho]

What's everyone's thought on trying to acquire Ketel Marte from Arizona for one of our catchers.

He's a switch hitter who has produced in the past and is still young, and can potential be a top to middle of the order bat. Allows us to sacrifice a bit of offense from our OF and go with a defense first approach there by targeting Keiermaier and Conforto and move Springer to RF.

Two consecutive bad defensive seasons (and an average offensive one). The only universe in which I have any interest in Marte is if he is a throw-in (15.4M for 1.4 fWAR last year).

 

[trellaine201]

Crickets

 

[Kurtz]

Crickets

Just signed with the Dodgers. Rumour is we gave a competitive offer.

 

[habamillions]

Crickets

Ill take him. Better then what we have so far

 

[Eyedea]

Angels reportedly pursued Contreras. Add another team to the list looking for a starting catcher. I don't know why seeing as they have O'Hoppe and Stassi. Also a quick glance at their team and they don't look THAT bad going into next season. Wouldn't mind grabbing Sandoval, Detmers, or even Suarez off them.

 

[phillipmike]

Springer: 34.2 WAR in 3899 PAs
Kiermaier: 31.8 WAR in 3053 PAs

Kiermaier has 800+ less PAs than Springer. Kiermaier is younger too.

Free agency is about looking for value and if you can get Kiermaier on a 1-2 year deal, that’s great value.

 

[Morgs]

Angels reportedly pursued Contreras. Add another team to the list looking for a starting catcher

What would they be able to offer that's not essential moving forward? Assuming Trout, Ohtani, Ward, Detmers, and Sandoval are 100% off-limits there's virtually nothing left in the org that's interesting for a team wanting to contend on a 1 for 1 basis. Sure they have a couple great prospects in Neto and O'Hoppe, but that's more Oakland's speed.

Best I can come up with is Suarez, Herget, and Adell (28.5 MTV) for Jansen (24.9), and I'd probably be disappointed in that.

 

[Eyedea]

Springer: 34.2 WAR in 3899 PAs
Kiermaier: 31.8 WAR in 3053 PAs

Kiermaier has 800+ less PAs than Springer. Kiermaier is younger too.

Free agency is about looking for value and if you can get Kiermaier on a 1-2 year deal, that’s great value.

bWAR also uses DRS and Kiermaier is probably the biggest DRS darling of them all. It's also a bit different when you look at the 10 fWAR difference in their careers, with 9 of those wins coming in the last 5 seasons (18 vs 9.1). Kiermaier was a great player, now I'm not so sure. Also xstats never liked him and it seemed like a lot of his offensive value came from his legs. With recurring hip problems, his overall value is further in question.

 

[Eyedea]

What would they be able to offer that's not essential moving forward? Assuming Trout, Ohtani, Ward, Detmers, and Sandoval are 100% off-limits there's virtually nothing left in the org that's interesting for a team wanting to contend on a 1 for 1 basis. Sure they have a couple great prospects in Neto and O'Hoppe, but that's more Oakland's speed.

Best I can come up with is Suarez, Herget, and Adell (28.5 MTV) for Jansen (24.9), and I'd probably be disappointed in that.

Neto would actually be an awesome piece for us even in the short term (he just performed very well after a pretty aggressive AA assignment). I know MadHatrick was also very high on him in the draft. No doubt they wouldn't move him. I'd say one of Detmers/Sandoval is fair game and I'd be willing to throw in a guy like Espinal who would be their starting SS at this point in time.

Definitely don't think they would do it though as they were probably looking at Contreras playing LF/1B more often once O'Hoppe is ready.

 

[Morgs]

Neto would actually be an awesome piece for us even in the short term (he just performed very well after a pretty aggressive AA assignment). I know MadHatrick was also very high on him in the draft. No doubt they wouldn't move him. I'd say one of Detmers/Sandoval is fair game and I'd be willing to throw in a guy like Espinal who would be their starting SS at this point in time.

Definitely don't think they would do it though as they were probably looking at Contreras playing LF/1B more often once O'Hoppe is ready.

Agreed. It just seems like a weird fit for them to both want a C and for the value coming back for us.

Diamondbacks are my most preferred trade partner at this point. Caroll for Moreno+ or Thomas for Jansen.

 

[phillipmike]

Neto would actually be an awesome piece for us even in the short term (he just performed very well after a pretty aggressive AA assignment). I know MadHatrick was also very high on him in the draft. No doubt they wouldn't move him. I'd say one of Detmers/Sandoval is fair game and I'd be willing to throw in a guy like Espinal who would be their starting SS at this point in time.

Definitely don't think they would do it though as they were probably looking at Contreras playing LF/1B more often once O'Hoppe is ready.

All fair points to bring up but i feel its a fair risk to take when he is the only legitimate CF that can potentially give you plus defense on the FA market. In a perfect world we get a young controllable CFer but the price will be high.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

All fair points to bring up but i feel its a fair risk to take when he is the only legitimate CF that can potentially give you plus defense on the FA market. In a perfect world we get a young controllable CFer but the price will be high.

I'm not completely against Kiermaier, so I'm ok with adding a guy like him. My concern is the suggestion of adding TWO guys like him (with significant health or performance risks) and expecting them to play and produce every day. That's why I don't like the Kiermaier/Gallo combo much.

But if you can add an OF who's better and more reliable, then Kiermaier is a good risk to take (especially if the other guy isn't a pure CF).

The flip side of the price being high on the young controllable CF is that the price will also be really high on young controllable catchers.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

And Chapman strikes out only 27% of the time

Which is 9th highest in MLB… 170 is 8th most SOs in MLB

 

[Eyedea]

Which is 9th highest in MLB… 170 is 8th most SOs in MLB

A 12% gap between Chapman and Gallo is not insignificant though. Definitely not the most contact oriented player but also not nearly as TTO’d as Gallo.

 

[Jozay]

Sign Correa yolo

 

[MS]

Springer: 34.2 WAR in 3899 PAs
Kiermaier: 31.8 WAR in 3053 PAs

Kiermaier has 800+ less PAs than Springer. Kiermaier is younger too.

Free agency is about looking for value and if you can get Kiermaier on a 1-2 year deal, that’s great value.

Problem is that over half of Kiermaier's WAR is defensive (it's 32-16 for Springer offensively) and he's a 32 y/o CF.

The guy was a cheat code in CF from 2014-2018 and probably one of the best defensive outfielders in MLB history, but like all players his defensive value is plummeting as he gets into his 30s.

 

[Kurtz]

Morosi thinks Reynolds to the Jays is a real possibility. Cherington is familiar with our farm and may have taken a liking to some guys.

 

[Woodman19]

Morosi thinks Reynolds to the Jays is a real possibility. Cherington is familiar with our farm and may have taken a liking to some guys.

That's top notch detective work by Morosi right there.

 

[Blitzkrug]

So safe to say they're probably out on Rodon too.

 

[Woodman19]

So safe to say they're probably out on Rodon too.

Good teams develop their arms, pitching is a young man's game.

 

[phillipmike]

Problem is that over half of Kiermaier's WAR is defensive (it's 32-16 for Springer offensively) and he's a 32 y/o CF.

The guy was a cheat code in CF from 2014-2018 and probably one of the best defensive outfielders in MLB history, but like all players his defensive value is plummeting as he gets into his 30s.

And that’s why a short term deal would be good, if it plummets, he is off the books after 2023 or 2024.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that guys who are expected to get 1-2 year deals have potential risk and warts. If there were little risk or no warts, these guys would be getting long term deals.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm not completely against Kiermaier, so I'm ok with adding a guy like him. My concern is the suggestion of adding TWO guys like him (with significant health or performance risks) and expecting them to play and produce every day. That's why I don't like the Kiermaier/Gallo combo much.

But if you can add an OF who's better and more reliable, then Kiermaier is a good risk to take (especially if the other guy isn't a pure CF).

The flip side of the price being high on the young controllable CF is that the price will also be really high on young controllable catchers.

To me there is two ways to acquire the player you are looking for; using money via free agency or via trade.

To me the Jays have 4 holes; they need 2 starting pitchers and 2 OFs.

At the moment there aren’t many free agents out there where I’m comfortable giving 3-4+ years to the likes of Benintendi or Profar.

As for trades to get anyone that fits your criteria you’re trading one of your catchers or prospects like Tiedemann or Moreno

I rather keep my prospects for the next wave or in season trades and spend just money. Which is why my plan is to address the 2 OF holes via free agency (Kiermaier, Gallo, Brantley or Conforto), 1 SP via free agency (Strip, Syndergaard, Manaea etc.) and the last SP via trade using one of Kirk, Moreno or Jansen.

Now if I can say pull off two separate trades where I’m acquiring say Alek Thomas and Pablo Lopez while signing Kiermaier and Syndergaard without dealing my top prospects (Tiedemann, Moreno, Barriera etc.) then I am all ears. Welcome to hear anyone out if they propose trades that are fair that can get it done. I’ve scanned it from top to bottom and I haven’t seen anything I like and that is fair.

Hence why I think the best and most realistic and reasonable option is sign two short term OFs, sign a short term starter and trade a catcher (preferable Jansen or Kirk in that order) for a good controllable starting pitching.

Maybe I’m missing something. Maybe I’m thinking too small. But can’t see use adding 2 impact pieces unless Tiedemann is on the table and/or Atkins has more than $30M to spend.

Sure the Jays could trade Bichette+ for Acuna, sign Correra, trade Jansen for Lopez and sign Stripling. That would be a great offseason, I just don’t think it’s happening. Limited resources with too many holes to fill.

Based on the information we have the Jays have the following resources;
-$30M
-Trade one of Jansen, Kirk or Moreno

Things are a bit easier to manage if you’re adding only 1 starting pitcher and 2 OFs but at that point you’re likely running a similar team back which is fine but I assume they want to make upgrades. Unless you’re signing Rodon and trading Moreno for Carroll.