Rumor: OFF-SEASON AVS Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents & Roster Moves (related topics) XC

[RoyIsALegend]

I don't believe we are interested in Phaneuf whatsoever. Perhaps before the draft and free agency, but not now when we have 8 one-way contracts on D and the EJ partner has been found in Beauch.

 

[Muffin]

Can't see the avs giving up assets for phanuef when they would not give Sekera term for nothing

Well maybe if they are willing to take Stuart and retain salary I can see the Avs being interested.

 

[henchman21]

With Beauch... the Phaneuf ship officially sailed. He is signed for too much, for too long for the Avs to swallow.

 

[lonelybadger]

Well maybe if they are willing to take Stuart and retain salary I can see the Avs being interested.

Berra + Stuart for Phanuef with 1 million retained...count me in......

 

[RockLobster]

Well maybe if they are willing to take Stuart and retain salary I can see the Avs being interested.

Stuart only has 2 more years left on his deal...I'd rather be out from that deal instead of having the term left on Phaneuf's, because I don't think that's a contract that will age very well. The last 3ish seasons have a decent-enough chance at being "not-so-good".

 

[Freudian]

I think there is a decent chance Barrie getting less points this year than last and he'll cost himself some money waiting. He's a talented guy, but 60 points is for players with ice time and talent above his.

I'm not sure Avs are too bothered with waiting to extend him. They might have a talk with his agent and see if there is anything that can be done this year. Ultimately it's up to the player. Just because Barrie is a Newport Sports client, doesn't mean he's an O'Reilly. They have well over a hundred clients and there is only one O'Reilly.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Freudian, I'm curious to know why you feel Barrie doesn't have 60 point "talent."

Aside from his shot, I don't see a single quality that he isn't elite at when it comes to offense. Skating with the puck, skating to join a rush, skating to keep pucks in the zone... passing from a breakout, passing from the point, passing in transition, passing in the offensive zone... quick decision making in all zones(biggest improvement in his defensive game).

Other than the booming shot, he has everything that any of the very best offensive defensemen of our generation have had.

 

[RockLobster]

I'm tending to side with TPS on this one. With all of our PP woes, Barrie still put up 53 points in 80 games. What if our PP only manages to become marginally better this season? He could definitely hit 60 points, it's not out of the question.

 

[henchman21]

Barrie just had a 53 point season where the team struggled to score up to their talent level and had a bad PP...

 

[InjuredChoker]

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2015/7/8/8894819/a-new-passing-data-viz-to-analyze-john-moore

there is some cool passing data stuff there.

some notes (some expected, some not):

- beauch isn't bad at all, pretty good actually. and not just team effects as fowler, lovejoy and stoner aren't good.. hampus was though.

- EJ is ok but not good, barrie is awesome, shows why redmond is underrated here and eyes are lying SOB.. do yourself a favor and don't look other avs dman stats..

- sekera is awesome.

- oprik and girardi are what i'd expect...

- duncan ****ing keith, drew ****ing doughty and erik ****ing karlsson.

- phaneuf and JMFJ were better than i thought. bogo a LOT better.

- check out jared cowen if you want a laugh.

- thought guys like vlasic and wiercioch would be better.

as for forwards

- kopitar might be good.. same with thornton.. and malkin.

- soderberg isn't good for what should be a very good playmaker.

- dustin brown... that can't be right.

- skog is awesome same with mack, duchene worse than i thought.. staz and ROR show what we need to replace.

- parise is a hockey player. as is tarasenko.

- stamkos is a excellent sniper. that's it.

- PAP can blame therrien, not his fault.

- check out mcleod... or not.


now there is some sample size issues with some players but still pretty interesting stuff imo.

 

[Freudian]

Freudian, I'm curious to know why you feel Barrie doesn't have 60 point "talent."

Aside from his shot, I don't see a single quality that he isn't elite at when it comes to offense. Skating with the puck, skating to join a rush, skating to keep pucks in the zone... passing from a breakout, passing from the point, passing in transition, passing in the offensive zone... quick decision making in all zones(biggest improvement in his defensive game).

Other than the booming shot, he has everything that any of the very best offensive defensemen of our generation have had.

It's extremely hard to get 60 points in the NHL as a defender. There are usually two a year that does it and all of them can run a PP/have a big shot. Barrie can't run a PP and doesn't have a big shot. I think there are only three defenders in the league I would say are 60 point defenders and those are Subban, Letang and Karlsson. Even these three miss it some years. Everyone else that does it have a career year, more or less.

We'll see what happens, but I don't see Barrie as a 26 minutes guy that will kill on the PP and I don't think he can make up for it by scoring more than everyone else in even strength.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2015/7/8/8894819/a-new-passing-data-viz-to-analyze-john-moore

there is some cool passing data stuff there.

some notes (some expected, some not):

- beauch isn't bad at all, pretty good actually. and not just team effects as fowler, lovejoy and stoner aren't good.. hampus was though.

- EJ is ok but not good, barrie is awesome, shows why redmond is underrated here and eyes are lying SOB.. do yourself a favor and don't look other avs dman stats..

- sekera is awesome.

- oprik and girardi are what i'd expect...

- duncan ****ing keith, drew ****ing doughty and erik ****ing karlsson.

- phaneuf and JMFJ were better than i thought. bogo a LOT better.

- check out jared cowen if you want a laugh.

- thought guys like vlasic and wiercioch would be better.

as for forwards

- kopitar might be good.. same with thornton.. and malkin.

- soderberg isn't good for what should be a very good playmaker.

- dustin brown... that can't be right.

- skog is awesome same with mack, duchene worse than i thought.. staz and ROR show what we need to replace.

- parise is a hockey player. as is tarasenko.

- stamkos is a excellent sniper. that's it.

- PAP can blame therrien, not his fault.

- check out mcleod... or not.


now there is some sample size issues with some players but still pretty interesting stuff imo.

Damn, I can't imagine the amount of work that goes into tracking that stuff. Love seeing Beauchemin at the very top as far as zone entry assists. That's huge for this team. Maybe this should go in the advanced stats page...

 

[henchman21]

Anything that tells you Redmond is a good defensemen should be taken with about 6 tons of salt. It is even worse when it points to numbers that make him sound like he is better than EJ. I don't really have any issue with him being an extra or bottom pairing guy, but that is all that he is. Anything that tells you he is better than that is dead wrong.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Anything that tells you Redmond is a good defensemen should be taken with about 6 tons of salt. It is even worse when it points to numbers that make him sound like he is better than EJ. I don't really have any issue with him being an extra or bottom pairing guy, but that is all that he is. Anything that tells you he is better than that is dead wrong.

they don't tell he is better than EJ. they tell he had better passing/scoring contribution stats than EJ. and going further, he had far softer usage and passing/scoring contributions are only part of the game. change their usage and EJ looks like god and redmond goes down the tank. and that's just from these stats which don't cover many areas of the game where EJ is a lot better than redmond.. these are basically the only types of stats where redmond is somewhat close to EJ.

it doesn't tell that redmond is a good defenseman either. more like good puck mover.

 

[henchman21]

they don't tell he is better than EJ. they tell he had better passing/scoring contribution stats than EJ. and going further, he had far softer usage and passing/scoring contributions are only part of the game. change their usage and EJ looks like god and redmond goes down the tank. and that's just from these stats which don't cover many areas of the game where EJ is a lot better than redmond.. these are basically the only types of stats where redmond is somewhat close to EJ.

it doesn't tell that redmond is a good defenseman either. more like good puck mover.

What I am saying there is that people use stats like those to show how great Redmond is... it is incredibly easy to see how limited of a player that Redmond really is, and that his puck movement isn't all that great... Redmond is a pretty average puck mover overall. He has a great stretch pass that can work on occasion, but he is very much a one trick pony in the NHL.

What that shows is that EJ is mostly between the 40th and 60th percentile in those stats. Slightly above in some areas. While Redmond is in the 80th in 3, over the 60th in 2 more, and in the other 3 he is between the 40th and 60th in 2 of them. That is suggesting that Redmond would theoretically be a better offensive defensemen than EJ... EJ is better in every facet offensively.

Go to Jake Gardiner's chart. His chart is way better than most players in the NHL overall. Yet nobody would confuse him for being a top pairing guy or one of the top offensive guys in the NHL. IMO he is an underutilized defensemen in Toronto and is better than people give him credit for, but looking at his chart, you'd think he was a near all star. In a number of areas and maybe overall, his looks better than Barrie's.

Like all advanced stats these charts need to be taken with a grain of salt and understand their context. When used as they should be, they can help explain a number of things, but as of right now, they don't paint a complete picture or anything that closely resembles one.

 

[InjuredChoker]

What I am saying there is that people use stats like those to show how great Redmond is... it is incredibly easy to see how limited of a player that Redmond really is, and that his puck movement isn't all that great... Redmond is a pretty average puck mover overall. He has a great stretch pass that can work on occasion, but he is very much a one trick pony in the NHL.

What that shows is that EJ is mostly between the 40th and 60th percentile in those stats. Slightly above in some areas. While Redmond is in the 80th in 3, over the 60th in 2 more, and in the other 3 he is between the 40th and 60th in 2 of them. That is suggesting that Redmond would theoretically be a better offensive defensemen than EJ... EJ is better in every facet offensively.

Go to Jake Gardiner's chart. His chart is way better than most players in the NHL overall. Yet nobody would confuse him for being a top pairing guy or one of the top offensive guys in the NHL. IMO he is an underutilized defensemen in Toronto and is better than people give him credit for, but looking at his chart, you'd think he was a near all star. In a number of areas and maybe overall, his looks better than Barrie's.

Like all advanced stats these charts need to be taken with a grain of salt and understand their context. When used as they should be, they can help explain a number of things, but as of right now, they don't paint a complete picture or anything that closely resembles one.

my theories/speculation:

even though some of those stats measure secondary contribution, avs transition game suffered a lot as teams had adjusted and locked the neutral zone and forechecked hard. EJ spends a lot of time with our best players. he played 842 mins 5on5 and the most time he spent with none top6 player was 150 mins with max talbot... and talbot was at times in the top 6 so the number is even less. when you play that much with duchene, tangs and landeskog, mack etc. one doesn't have to produce offense much. they'll take care of that (or not as we saw for too long parts of the season).

compared to redmond who played a lot more with avs bottom 6 players who have no skill.. so redmond has to take part of generating offense and carrying the puck more often as those players can't do it. so his stats here look better.

as for gardiner, he also spent fair amount of time with their bot 6 players and outside of kessel, kadri and JVR, they are really not that skilled either.. except for maybe lupul but he's never healthy. gardiner's style also helps to boost his stats there. he likes to have the puck more than almost any other D in the league.. so if his team generates offense when gardiner is on the ice, it usually has been on gardiner's stick not so long time ago. whether he hangs on the puck too much or not is another discussion.

as for the last paragraph, there's luckily no one here on the avs board who claims otherwise.

 

[henchman21]

my theories/speculation:

even though some of those stats measure secondary contribution, avs transition game suffered a lot as teams had adjusted and locked the neutral zone and forechecked hard. EJ spends a lot of time with our best players. he played 842 mins 5on5 and the most time he spent with none top6 player was 150 mins with max talbot... and talbot was at times in the top 6 so the number is even less. when you play that much with duchene, tangs and landeskog, mack etc. one doesn't have to produce offense much. they'll take care of that (or not as we saw for too long parts of the season).

compared to redmond who played a lot more with avs bottom 6 players who have no skill.. so redmond has to take part of generating offense and carrying the puck more often as those players can't do it. so his stats here look better.

as for gardiner, he also spent fair amount of time with their bot 6 players and outside of kessel, kadri and JVR, they are really not that skilled either.. except for maybe lupul but he's never healthy. gardiner's style also helps to boost his stats there. he likes to have the puck more than almost any other D in the league.. so if his team generates offense when gardiner is on the ice, it usually has been on gardiner's stick not so long time ago. whether he hangs on the puck too much or not is another discussion.

as for the last paragraph, there's luckily no one here on the avs board who claims otherwise.

I really don't disagree with any of that thought process. I just see a lot of areas where things don't really matchup and that is the key issue with analytics (at least public ones, some of the ones teams use are a lot more sophisticated) in hockey today. They paint a very narrow picture on a game that is far from static.

Gardiner is just a prime example of where some of the holes lie. I really don't have as many issues as many people do with him, but I don't think he is all world or anything. I can easily see how his game and the way he plays skews certain stats in his favor while ignoring some of the glaring flaws. I really don't think he is the only one like that either... I have a buddy who is a big Leaf fan and he was pointing out to me some of Hunwick's stats the other day... and I thought I had heard it all.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

One player I'd love to trade for is Dan Hamhuis. Sounds like he won't be re-signing in Vancouver.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Altitude has an exclusive new interview with Roy tonight at 6 PM. I don't think it's going to be just about this season, but more of a bit of everything with his career.

 

[InjuredChoker]

One player I'd love to trade for is Dan Hamhuis. Sounds like he won't be re-signing in Vancouver.

he's 32 and can still play at pretty high level so i'd assume he wants 4-5 year extension.. i'm not sure if that would fit here and i think he's too expensive for just a rental as avs aren't ready to compete for the cup.

 

[dahrougem2]

It's extremely hard to get 60 points in the NHL as a defender. There are usually two a year that does it and all of them can run a PP/have a big shot. Barrie can't run a PP and doesn't have a big shot. I think there are only three defenders in the league I would say are 60 point defenders and those are Subban, Letang and Karlsson. Even these three miss it some years. Everyone else that does it have a career year, more or less.

We'll see what happens, but I don't see Barrie as a 26 minutes guy that will kill on the PP and I don't think he can make up for it by scoring more than everyone else in even strength.

I'll have to agree with you on this one. Look at the last 10 years for defensemen who have scored 60+ points:

2014-2015: 3 (Karlsson, Burns, Subban)
2013-2014: 2 (Karlsson, Keith)
2012-2013: 2 (Subban, Letang)***
2011-2012: 1 (Karlsson)
2010-2011: 2 (Visnovsky, Lidstrom)
2009-2010: 2 (Green, Keith)
2008-2009: 2 (Green, Markov)
2007-2008: 5 (Lidstrom, Gonchar, Streit, Campbell, Phaneuf)
2006-2007: 5 (Niedermayer, Gonchar, Souray, Boyle, Lidstrom)
2005-2006: 6 (Lidstrom, Zubov, McCabe, Visnovsky, Kaberle, Niedermayer)

The trend has gone down over the last 10 years for defensemen scoring 60+ points coinciding with less scoring in general in the NHL. Over the last five seasons the common factor amongst all defensemen (Karlsson, Burns, Subban, Keith, Letang, Visnovsky, Lidstrom) is that they can/could run a PP beautifully and/or have a cannon of a shot from the point. I don't see Barrie as a big PP guy. He's excellent skating with the puck and roaming in the offensive zone and has outstanding passing skills and vision, but he isn't an ideal PPQB nor does he have the big cannon from the point. That's why I don't see him crossing the 60+ point threshold.

 

[AvsRobin]

IMO Zadorov will be a better defensemen than Sekera soon. Not for next season, but solid chance in 16-17 IMO. Bigras is probably a year after that. I totally understand not giving Sekera a long deal if you feel the kids are going to contribute at a high level soon.

I think if the Avs didn't get Zadorov they would have made a much harder push for Sekera and giving him term. With Zadorov they got a kid that has legit top pairing potential and isn't far away from it.

I wonder how we would feel about Avs saying no to giving decent term to established top 4 guys in lets say 2012 cause "We have Elliott and Siemens coming up".

I hope they weren't thinking that way then and I hope they aren't thinking that way now.

I don't want to start a big discussion about that, but I get the same feeling about this as I get when Roy talks about drafting after positional need. Like it's free agency. Like he knows what he is going to get from every prospect. Not everyone is going to make it. Bigras might be a career AHLer. I don't think he is but he might be.

I really don't think you should make decisions like that on Sekera because you expect a prospect or two to be ready by this time or later. It's a way too risky game and lets say we would have given Sekera 6 years and signed him. It's not hard to move guys like that IF you get a prospect or two the surpasses him.

I really hope this wasn't their thinking anyway. I wouldn't agree with it being a smart way of conducting business and planning the team.

 

[AvsRobin]

I'm tending to side with TPS on this one. With all of our PP woes, Barrie still put up 53 points in 80 games. What if our PP only manages to become marginally better this season? He could definitely hit 60 points, it's not out of the question.

Barries shooting percentage on the PP last season was 3.45%. That has to go up I think. It was 9.09% in 13/14.

And honestly, just removing Guenin from his side is going to give him a huge boost.

 

[MonsterMack]

I don't mean to turn this into a babe thread but...

 

[lonelybadger]

Looks like he ran so fast all of his chest hair came off....

Has Duchene started working out with crosby et al yet?