All of the following is based on rosters as of now:
To be honest I think Boston isnt going to be anywhere near what they have been in the recent past. Lost a lot of key guys and didnt bring much in. They make the playoffs but arent a dominate force like they have been.
Toronto wont be good next year. Lost one of their better possession players and their big FA signing is a guy who was sheltered in spots and has really only had one good year. His shooting % was insane and wont ever be that again as his track record has shown. Speaking of shooting % TO as a whole had almost a 12% last season. No way in hell that happens again. I see TO starting another streak of missing the playoffs.
Detroit has gone lateral at best this off season but they are really a wild card. They are so used to the west style of play and are now going to be playing mainly east teams. How fast can they adjust over the season and can a few of their players continue to grow or will some flop out. They are really an enigma this year IMO. Prob make the playoffs though.
Montreal isnt going to be as good as last year, but they should be solid enough to make the playoffs. Really depends a lot on their key guys having big seasons again. If they fall off at all they wont do much.
Ottawa is the team that has improved IMO. Ryan is a huge gain and losing Alfreddsson aside from the sentimentality isnt a huge deal. I see them being better this year. Just gotta stay away from the injury bug.
Florida and Buffalo will both be terrible.
That leaves us. Along with Detroit Id say we are a big enigma. We have two goalies that we will live or die by and if they put up .905%+ then we could be in business. If not well....
New coach, new system, full training camp, everyone healthy to start. Its basically a perfect storm for either a massive flop or a massive success. I still believe Yzerman will pull a trade for a top 3 dman, but im basing this off of current rosters so Ill say we finish just outside the playoffs this year. Unless everything goes perfectly.
I agree with mostly everything you're saying, especially on Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, Florida and us.
However, if Boston doesn't win the division, who does? I still think they're the team to beat, but it does signify that the division has perhaps gotten a little weaker, unless their incoming young prospects play to their potential and fill (or better) the void of the departed players.
Toronto's an odd case because despite losing a good puck possession player, they don't really play a pure puck possession style in the first place. Carlyle is a fan of the chip and chase blended with a puck possession style, creating relentless high pressure on the forecheck and mixing it up with a fast rush with the puck into the zone. They got better in goal, and if Bernier can replicate his numbers from last season, they could have one of the better goaltending tandems in the league. Definitely got worse offensively and failed to improve their defense though, the latter which was the main reason they lost in game 7 to Boston. As I said before, the Leafs moved laterally at best.
You raise a good point that Detroit may need time adjusting to the East. However, they have played a puck possession style for years and have succeeded with it against teams in the East, while coming within a game of the Western Conference Final. They sorely needed a shooter on the PP and some top 6 forward help and got that with Alfredsson. The move from Filppula to Weiss will improve their output consistency from their secondary scorers. I think Detroit improved overall in terms of pure off-season moves, but a lot of their success will hinge on Howard and the improvement of young players like Smith, DeKeyser and Kindl.
