Speculation: Nylander XXI - all Nylander discussion here (MOD WARNING IN OP)
- Thread starter garnetpalmetto
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especially if the cap hit is under $7 million. Many teams like the leafs with lots of money only care about cap space not real dollars. Hypothetically if the leafs could get him for $7 million x 6-7 years and the cap hit works out to ~$6.75 nylander would be a very tradeable asset, especially if nylander is performing well.
ottomaddox
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At this point it has to be the only explanation. The leafs can't keep Nylander at that number.
Jaffray15
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I’d say $6 mil to $6.5 is fair for Nylander. He isn’t worth more then Pastrnak, but more then someone like Ehlers.
The kid wants to play in the NHL, so the Leafs continue to hold a great deal of leverage over him after this year. Perhaps his trade value does diminish, but the Leafs have the luxury (partially due to the Tavares signing) of just waiting him out. He is wasting away both money and his prime hockey years right now. The Leafs can (not saying they will) win a cup without him in the lineup and will have the core of the team intact for another couple of seasons. The Leafs will also have much greater certainty of what they can offer Nylander after they lock up the two far more important pieces of their roster. Part of not signing him to an albatross of a contract has to be fear that both Marner and Matthews could sign an offer sheet or also demand excessive contracts.
Side note: I personally think he is locked up today - there was a good article by Bobby Mac about how advantageous it is for the Leafs to wait until the last moment from a cap perspective because they are charged a much higher hit to the cap this year ($9M prorated I think) and then the remaining years are lower. I think if he signed a $7M-6 year contract today, his cap hit in the following years is close to $6.25M next season when we will be in our toughest position. The following season Marleau's contract is off the books.
BB88
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- Jan 19, 2015
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Pasta contract is one of the best in the league, if you have to pay that to Nylander or a bit more it doesn't make that contract bad, it could still be ....ng good in value.
Pasta doesn't get signed to that contract today.
The good thing for Toronto is that neither Matthews or Marner are signed, they defense a lot more than Nylander and it could make this even more challenging.
We are going to see jump from 6.xM to 9.xM+ in RFA contracts this next summer.
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I do not think the Leafs will give a high price on a bridge contract as our toughest cap year will be next season. If it's a bridge, $5-5.5M at most.
EDIT - not sure what you meant by "high". Perhaps the numbers I used are in line with what you're thinking.
ottomaddox
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This is a very positive perspective, but you have to think also that it's come this far because no one can agree on anything.
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Is Tavares worth $2-3 million more per year than Crosby or Malkin? Or do you just have a lack of understanding about what happens when the Cap rises?
Cap is up 10% from when Pastrnak signed. Players make more money when the league grows. It is a really simple concept. Saying things like “Nylander shouldn’t get more than (insert player who signed more than 1 year ago)” is meaningless without addressing additional factors like Cap inflation.
Pure Slaughter Value
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tony d
New poll series coming from me in June
1 day left to get something done. I think 3 yrs. at 6.5 million per is what he'll get if he's signed.
ottomaddox
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High bridge and low bridge are both suspendable offenses in the National Hockey League.
KlausJopling
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Overpaying RFA isn't usually what screws up a teams cap. Its overpaying UFAs
Finnish your Czech
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The best option for both sides is a 2 year bridge deal. AAV would probably be around 5.25 mil.
Leafs get to save a couple mil until Marleau's contract runs out in 2020, where they may have space to lock up Nylander to a larger contract.
Nylander gets a couple years to put up big numbers playing with a center that's on Pace for a goal per game. He also gets trade security, as the Leafs would never trade a 60+pt winger that makes 5.25 mil. If the Leafs needed cap space, they'd be trading Brown, Zaitsev or maybe even Kadri. Of course the downside for Nylander is the guaranteed salary he'd be losing out on in case he gets injured.
Leafs get to save a couple mil until Marleau's contract runs out in 2020, where they may have space to lock up Nylander to a larger contract.
Nylander gets a couple years to put up big numbers playing with a center that's on Pace for a goal per game. He also gets trade security, as the Leafs would never trade a 60+pt winger that makes 5.25 mil. If the Leafs needed cap space, they'd be trading Brown, Zaitsev or maybe even Kadri. Of course the downside for Nylander is the guaranteed salary he'd be losing out on in case he gets injured.
Mickey Marner
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At this rate my data overages will exceed Nylanders AAV.
Isaac Nootin
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- Sep 28, 2017
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What does Pastrnak have to do with anything, considering he's currently underpaid by 2-3 million/year.
He's outperformed his contract, his value is no longer 6.7
Very true, but underpaying RFA’s can help mitigate the damage of overpaid UFA’s.
I understand your reasoning but trading a devalued asset (which Nylander is at the current moment) sets a terrible precedent for a young team and young management group. If the Leafs could get proper value for him then you trade him but I don't think they can get proper value for him up against this deadline. Teams don't have the in-season capspace and they are also unsure of what their respective teams chances are this early in the season.
Nylanders value does not go down in the offseason. If anything, it goes up when more teams can make reasonable offers.
I think they Leafs are probably communicating this to him. Sign or sit.
The Leafs are currently 9/1 odds to win the cup. About 11%. You don't go trading away a valuable asset to increase your odds from 11% to maybe 15%. In fact, I don't think a GM should ever cave in trade discussions. All that means is that teams will always try and take advantage of you going forward.
The Leafs best leverage is to tell Nylander he has to choose from their contract offers or sit. They should be telling him that they will not trade him to a team that will meet his demands. Nylander does not gain any leverage by sitting. No arbitration rights and that money is gone for good.
The Leafs are looking at the next 6-10 years. Not just this year.
HoweHullOrr
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- Oct 3, 2013
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This is an interesting debate = how easy or hard is it to have a dynasty (see *) in the Cap era?
You can keep the core together and wins Cups such as Pittsburgh and Chicago have. But for how long?
* Re: Dynasty - For reference, Montreal won 5 Cups in the 1950s, 5 in the 1960s, and 6 in the 1970s.
How hard is it to keep replacing good players with ELCs? Replacing such players becomes necessary because while these players are good & make contributions, they are identified as non-core. How often can you select at 31st, or for that matter, just at the bottom of the draft and still have ELCs making significant contributions?
And, how long will it take before your stud core will get old and before you see a decline in their skills and/or dominance?
Will there be any dynasties of old like the Islanders, Oilers or Montreal?
And, this news (below) was interesting. What could be the impact of this?
Lebrun "But what I think is new is that our understanding is the Marner camp is looking at the idea of the merits of a four- or five-year deal when it’s time to negotiate as opposed to a maximum or longer term deal. And that is obviously quite interesting. It’s probably not what the Leafs want, that’s for sure. Especially, a four-year deal because that would walk Marner right into ufa (unrestricted free agency)."
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