Confirmed with Link: Nylander signs extension of 8 years - 11.5M AAV

[notDatsyuk]

Until this group shows some serious backbone/resolve when it counts then having a bunch of star players feels like empty calories. Like a previous poster said, just leave it all out there and dont turn in to cupcakes or just wilt when the going gets tough ie playoffs and fans will be satisfied or at least more satisfied, win or lose.

For the record I really like Nylanders offensive game and his growth in that regard (got some issues with his pull ups to avoid contact but thats for another thread) and would probably keep him over 16 but overall Im in the camp that feels like this team is built slightly wrong with 4 similar style no jam forwards taking up so much of the cap. More balance is needed imo if we want a real shot at the big prize.

True. But since it's been shown that Willy is the one of the 'top 4' that wilts the least in the playoffs, I'm reasonably happy with the deal.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

That's scary. He 'learned' from the Nylander negotiations that if he waited he'd have to pay more (7 instead of maybe 6?), so for Marner he signed quickly to keep the number down? What did he think he would have to pay if he waited? How much more than 11?

I remember he said he "learned" from the Nylander negotiation to not have Marner miss any time. But yes, the price was ridiculous. Point was the best player in that RFA class, but somehow Marner set the market.

 

[notDatsyuk]

This is a good regular season team, we all know that. They've also been a really bad playoff team as evidenced by 7 consecutive sub .500 playoffs.

So I'm pretty sure that when the poster you're responding to said "Until this group shows some serious backbone/resolve when it counts", he meant playoffs, not games against a bottom feeder in January so your response "They've looked great the last few nights" is missing the point.

Cliff notes - beating up on a crappy team doesn't show backbone/resolve. JMHO.

Considering that they were losing to similar 'crappy' teams quite recently, winning three in a row (outscoring them 13-3) shows something.

 

[Stephen]

Considering that they were losing to similar 'crappy' teams quite recently, winning three in a row (outscoring them 13-3) shows something.

It’s important to see them in “business mode” when the wins are there to be had and that’s the platform for gearing up for big games against other contenders.

The notion that the regular season “doesn’t matter” is misunderstood. Their regular season play doesn’t get them off the hook for poor playoff reputations. But it’s still a ramp up towards being a serious playoff team the next time they’re in a series.

 

[jfc64]

Has Willie used the subway on occasion the last few days?

 

[studebaker17]

I remember he said he "learned" from the Nylander negotiation to not have Marner miss any time. But yes, the price was ridiculous. Point was the best player in that RFA class, but somehow Marner set the market.

Brayden Point is an strange case to pick as a comparable . Tampa / Point chose to do a 3 yr bridge contract for the 2nd contract after putting up pretty close to the same points as Marner in the contract year albeit a lot more goals. In the 3 years after until his next contract he pretty much shit the bed putting up 170 points to Marners 231 points in that same time frame . Then he still signed for 9.5 million in a flat cap world for his next 8yr contract .

 

[arso40]

Brayden Point is an strange case to pick as a comparable . Tampa / Point chose to do a 3 yr bridge contract for the 2nd contract after putting up pretty close to the same points as Marner in the contract year albeit a lot more goals. In the 3 years after until his next contract he pretty much shit the bed putting up 170 points to Marners 231 points in that same time frame . Then he still signed for 9.5 million in a flat cap world for his next 8yr contract .

Yeah not sure what happened to him. Maybe it’s the fact palats gone basically he inherited the triplet line and replaced Johnson which was an upgrade so maybe he was just the third wheel on that line I unno?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Especially when you’re talking about this sad ownership and Shanahan, combined with these greedy players.

The same thing applies when you're talking about any team/owner/player.

No its about having a tender that sucks and having a coach that lets the team play a style that maximizes individual point tallies and minimizes playoff success.

No, it's not about any of those incorrect beliefs either.

We have the top paid 3 others in the top 11 or 12.

That's not true. Within the top 12, we have the 4th, 8th, and 9th highest cap hits. We're pretty lucky to have such amazing players. This upcoming Nylander contract is easily the worst of the bunch, and it would have been nice if Treliving didn't get cold feet after Gaudreau, or so blinded by these 30-something games, but it's still manageable, and preferable to losing him for nothing.

Maybe sign jones for 5 mil next season. So much possibility. Arent you stoked Dekes cuz i am really really stoked

No, I would not be stoked to sign Jones for 5m, after a dozen good games that followed half a decade of sucking.
That would be a horrible move, unlike signing our superstar players.

But regardless he set the bar with his goofy contract and you can’t justify that , the season he had could easily be an outlier it was a big jump contract year

He didn't set any bars. He got the 10th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era (6th highest winger), term considered, as the 6th best player (2nd best winger) through their pre-signing period in the cap era. His contract aligns well historically, was entirely justified, and he's outperformed it. And it wasn't just based on his final contract year, which was pretty easy to see would not be an outlier. His point totals that year actually undervalued his relative quality and impact in that season.

 

[arso40]

The same thing applies when you're talking about any team/owner/player.

No, it's not about any of those incorrect beliefs either.

That's not true. Within the top 12, we have the 4th, 8th, and 9th highest cap hits. We're pretty lucky to have such amazing players. This upcoming Nylander contract is easily the worst of the bunch, and it would have been nice if Treliving didn't get cold feet after Gaudreau, or so blinded by these 30-something games, but it's still manageable, and preferable to losing him for nothing.

No, I would not be stoked to sign Jones for 5m, after a dozen good games that followed half a decade of sucking.
That would be a horrible move, unlike signing our superstar players.

He didn't set any bars. He got the 10th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era (6th highest winger), term considered, as the 6th best player (2nd best winger) through their pre-signing period in the cap era. His contract aligns well historically, was entirely justified, and he's outperformed it. And it wasn't just based on his final contract year, which was pretty easy to see would not be an outlier. His point totals that year actually undervalued his relative quality and impact in that season.

He’s definitely the reason nylander got 11.5 you realize that right ?

The same thing applies when you're talking about any team/owner/player.

No, it's not about any of those incorrect beliefs either.

That's not true. Within the top 12, we have the 4th, 8th, and 9th highest cap hits. We're pretty lucky to have such amazing players. This upcoming Nylander contract is easily the worst of the bunch, and it would have been nice if Treliving didn't get cold feet after Gaudreau, or so blinded by these 30-something games, but it's still manageable, and preferable to losing him for nothing.

No, I would not be stoked to sign Jones for 5m, after a dozen good games that followed half a decade of sucking.
That would be a horrible move, unlike signing our superstar players.

He didn't set any bars. He got the 10th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era (6th highest winger), term considered, as the 6th best player (2nd best winger) through their pre-signing period in the cap era. His contract aligns well historically, was entirely justified, and he's outperformed it. And it wasn't just based on his final contract year, which was pretty easy to see would not be an outlier. His point totals that year actually undervalued his relative quality and impact in that season.

Who’s out performed their contract ?? Rielly?? We’re not talkin about him

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes. The Leafs are paying for regular season points instead of post-season points.

Every team pays for regular season points, not post-season points. That's just how player contracts in the NHL work.

He’s definitely the reason nylander got 11.5 you realize that right ?

I realize the fact that his contract has absolutely nothing to do with Nylander getting 11.5m. They're not even the same type of contracts.

Who’s out performed their contract ??

Over the length of their contracts - all of them. People have a really skewed perception of what cap is actually worth, because they often choose to set the "standard" to cherry picked contracts that have turned into the most cap-friendly superstar contracts in the league after the fact.

Brayden Point is an strange case to pick as a comparable.

People like to use him because, unlike teams, they conveniently exclude the fact that he got that single-season point total by being joined at the hip with a player that outproduced him by 36 points, and by standing around being the 3rd wheel triggerman shooting 40% on the PP. There's a reason that he fell back over the following years, because that point total wasn't about him or sustainable, and it was easy to see.

People tend to think that the only thing that matters is straight points, but that's not even the best way to evaluate production, let alone everything else that matters when it comes to contracts. Points are largely just a mediocre proxy that are easy for fans to digest.

 

[thewave]

Every team pays for regular season points, not post-season points. That's just how player contracts in the NHL work.

I realize the fact that his contract has absolutely nothing to do with Nylander getting 11.5m. They're not even the same type of contracts.

Over the length of their contracts - all of them. People have a really skewed perception of what cap is actually worth, because they often choose to set the "standard" to cherry picked contracts that have turned into the most cap-friendly superstar contracts in the league after the fact.

People like to use him because, unlike teams, they conveniently exclude the fact that he got that single-season point total by being joined at the hip with a player that outproduced him by 36 points, and by standing around being the 3rd wheel triggerman shooting 40% on the PP. There's a reason that he fell back over the following years, because that point total wasn't about him or sustainable, and it was easy to see.

People tend to think that the only thing that matters is straight points, but that's not even the best way to evaluate production, let alone everything else that matters when it comes to contracts. Points are largely just a mediocre proxy that are easy for fans to digest.

Dekes you may be the Leafs best paid or unpaid asset online.

There is no sound plan at MLSE to win a cup. 4 players will be in the top 12 paid next season. None of them are defenders.

We do not have a plan or legit 1G. Does not exist in the system.

We do not have a top 10 in the league D core. No way.

Our cap structure does not afford us the ability to assemble a deep team going forward.

This is why there is no reasonable argument that explains a plan or strategy in place to win.

 

[notDatsyuk]

He’s definitely the reason nylander got 11.5 you realize that right ?


Who’s out performed their contract ?? Rielly?? We’re not talkin about him

The fact that he thinks the new Nylander contract is the worst pretty much explains where he's coming from.

I mean you could possibly argue that Matty's new one is better, except for the short term, but really? Willy's earlier one was easily the best of the four. Pending the new ones for Mitch and JT, it looks like it could be the best again.

 

[arso40]

Every team pays for regular season points, not post-season points. That's just how player contracts in the NHL work.

I realize the fact that his contract has absolutely nothing to do with Nylander getting 11.5m. They're not even the same type of contracts.

Over the length of their contracts - all of them. People have a really skewed perception of what cap is actually worth, because they often choose to set the "standard" to cherry picked contracts that have turned into the most cap-friendly superstar contracts in the league after the fact.

People like to use him because, unlike teams, they conveniently exclude the fact that he got that single-season point total by being joined at the hip with a player that outproduced him by 36 points, and by standing around being the 3rd wheel triggerman shooting 40% on the PP. There's a reason that he fell back over the following years, because that point total wasn't about him or sustainable, and it was easy to see.

People tend to think that the only thing that matters is straight points, but that's not even the best way to evaluate production, let alone everything else that matters when it comes to contracts. Points are largely just a mediocre proxy that are easy for fans to digest.

Marner has not outperformed his contract at all you explain to me how your the only that can draw that opinion im interested ? How are they not the same type of contracts same percent of cap nylander left a couple decimal points on the table but it’s damn near the same contract with nylander going the 8 years I guess there is a difference definitely marners pr guy

 

[Jojalu]

Dekes you may be the Leafs best paid or unpaid asset online.

There is no sound plan at MLSE to win a cup. 4 players will be in the top 12 paid next season. None of them are defenders.

We do not have a plan or legit 1G. Does not exist in the system.

We do not have a top 10 in the league D core. No way.

Our cap structure does not afford us the ability to assemble a deep team going forward.

This is why there is no reasonable argument that explains a plan or strategy in place to win.

They have a plan. It might not be your ideal plan, or a good plan, but their plan is given enough time they believe the Core 4 will win.

 

[81Leafs50]

Set or estimated? (there is a big difference)

Link please.

ya, sit sit there and ask for people to do your research for you.

For the past five seasons the number, which is $83.5M this year, has increased by $2M or less, but for the 2024-25 season, Bettman shared publicly that it is expected to go up to $87.7M.

Projected Salary Cap Jump, 2024 Draft Info Announced | Carolina Hurricanes

Business is trending in the right direction, and that's good news for the Canes

www.nhl.com

Defensive metrics don't include goaltending impacts.

so if the goalie is letting 5 a night it doesn't affect the expected goals for and against? smh

 

[Gary Nylund]

They have a plan. It might not be your ideal plan, or a good plan, but their plan is given enough time they believe the Core 4 will win.

That does seem to be the plan. These guys are so talented, we'll just keep rolling them out there at any cost and they're bound to win eventually.

The only thing that's not quite accurate here IMO is that it's not really a "plan", it's more like faint hope, and growing more faint every year.

 

[Mess]

They have a plan. It might not be your ideal plan, or a good plan, but their plan is given enough time they believe the Core 4 will win.

They have a plan alright !!

Shanahan is going on year 10 and the plan of his has won 1 single playoff series and 5 playoff games max in any playoff year.

If one was going to evaluate the success of this "We can and We will" plan it would not be getting high marks considering recent expansion NHL teams both Vegas and Seattle have been able to exceed those marks,

The Leafs have had the least amount of success in a Salary Cap world so how they spend their cap space would have to be at the core of any investigation and evaluation on WHY that is.

 

[Captain Crunch]

The same thing applies when you're talking about any team/owner/player.

No, it's not about any of those incorrect beliefs either.

That's not true. Within the top 12, we have the 4th, 8th, and 9th highest cap hits. We're pretty lucky to have such amazing players. This upcoming Nylander contract is easily the worst of the bunch, and it would have been nice if Treliving didn't get cold feet after Gaudreau, or so blinded by these 30-something games, but it's still manageable, and preferable to losing him for nothing.

No, I would not be stoked to sign Jones for 5m, after a dozen good games that followed half a decade of sucking.
That would be a horrible move, unlike signing our superstar players.

He didn't set any bars. He got the 10th highest value post-ELC forward contract in the cap era (6th highest winger), term considered, as the 6th best player (2nd best winger) through their pre-signing period in the cap era. His contract aligns well historically, was entirely justified, and he's outperformed it. And it wasn't just based on his final contract year, which was pretty easy to see would not be an outlier. His point totals that year actually undervalued his relative quality and impact in that season.

Check and see how many teams have given their top players full NMCs for the entirety of their contract. The Leafs have gotten zilch in all of these contracts, and given the players exactly what they wanted. Pretty good regular seasons for them, but only one playoff round victory in what, the past 5 or 6 seasons. But as you like to point out, it's all about the regular season as far as contracts go. What they do in the playoffs must just be the icing on the cake. And if that is so, why do they even need to make the playoffs, because they aren't being paid for that. Lol!!!

 

[egd27]

ya, sit sit there and ask for people to do your research for you.

For the past five seasons the number, which is $83.5M this year, has increased by $2M or less, but for the 2024-25 season, Bettman shared publicly that it is expected to go up to $87.7M.

I didn't need to do additional research to know what was estimated or "expected" ( I had done that)

You posted "Cap for next season has been set at $87.7M" I asked for a link that indicated it had been "set".

Since you don't have one, all there that exists is speculation, which I am skeptical about.

 

[Confucius]

Has Willie used the subway on occasion the last few days?

Why would he stop, think of the faithful?

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Brayden Point is an strange case to pick as a comparable . Tampa / Point chose to do a 3 yr bridge contract for the 2nd contract after putting up pretty close to the same points as Marner in the contract year albeit a lot more goals. In the 3 years after until his next contract he pretty much shit the bed putting up 170 points to Marners 231 points in that same time frame . Then he still signed for 9.5 million in a flat cap world for his next 8yr contract .

Point had 2 of the most dominant goal scoring playoff performances of all time

 

[kevsh]

This is why there is no reasonable argument that explains a plan or strategy in place to win.

I think it's as simple as MLSE has mistaken hockey for basketball (5 key players. Get one superstar and you're on your way. Get 2 and your probably making the finals at least) or for a corporation (find the best C-level executives available & pay them whatever it takes to get/keep them because the success of the company entirely rests on their shoulders. Everyone underneath is easily replaceable so they get scraps by comparison).

I do think it is likely the latter in part because star players bring big revenue just by being stars. Let's face it, many of us watch in big part because the Leafs - in particular AM, Mitch & Willie - are entertaining to watch, even if they can't win a round.

 

[keonsbitterness]

I didn't need to do additional research to know what was estimated or "expected" ( I had done that)

You posted "Cap for next season has been set at $87.7M" I asked for a link that indicated it had been "set".

Since you don't have one, all there that exists is speculation, which I am skeptical about.

Not set, but this is a pretty clear indication. Past mid-season estimates by the league have been pretty close to actual cap numbers.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is no sound plan at MLSE to win a cup.

Of course there is. Just because you choose not to agree with the plan, that doesn't make the plan bad or not exist.

4 players will be in the top 12 paid next season. None of them are defenders.
We do not have a plan or legit 1G. Does not exist in the system.
We do not have a top 10 in the league D core. No way.
Our cap structure does not afford us the ability to assemble a deep team going forward.

Yes, for one season, we will likely have four payers in the top 12 paid next season. Because we have some really good players. Not really sure why you think it matters whether one of them is a defender. We had a top 10 defensive team before this year, and it's possible to get back to that without a top-12 salary defender.

You really have no idea whether we have a 1G in the system. And while superstar goalies are certainly helpful, sometimes all you need is a hot streak from something lesser. And of course we're able to build a deep team with this cap structure. We've done it for multiple years, and it's only going to get easier with prospects to provide ELC value and a rising cap.

Marner has not outperformed his contract at all

Of course he has. Most superstars do, because superstars are improperly paid in this league relative to their impact, in order to overpay the middle tier.
[Insert cherry picked superstar player that exploded post-signing] is not the standard of what a dollar of cap space is worth. That is the exception.
He's been one of the best players in the league over the length of his contract, and any measure of the value of cap space relative to impact has him well outperforming it.

How are they not the same type of contracts

Post-ELC and UFA contracts have nothing to do with each other. Nylander's contract is about Nylander, what he wanted, and what he could expect to be paid based on historical UFA comparables.

Check and see how many teams have given their top players full NMCs for the entirety of their contract.

NMCs and trade protections are quite common for top tier players, and even ones that don't have them are barely ever traded anyway.

The Leafs have gotten zilch in all of these contracts

They get some of the best players in the league. Some people seem to forget that.

And if that is so, why do they even need to make the playoffs, because they aren't being paid for that.

They don't need to make the playoffs. Many players don't and get paid massive amounts. Making the playoffs is just the natural result of great players giving it their all.

so if the goalie is letting 5 a night it doesn't affect the expected goals for and against?

Expected goals for and against is what the skaters are doing, in the context of how a league average goalie performs. How the individual team's goalie performs is separate.

 

[Apex Predator]

They have a plan. It might not be your ideal plan, or a good plan, but their plan is given enough time they believe the Core 4 will win.

It might work out is not a plan.