Confirmed with Link: Nylander signs extension of 8 years - 11.5M AAV

[Roo]

A bit higher than I'd like, but he has played on an entirely different level compared to last year. He's our 2nd best player and is being paid like it. I've been pretty critical of Nylander, and his play this year even has me singing a different tune.

Marner on the other hand, is not worth this money. We'll see what happens with him, but his play has been regressing (not just offensively). I have no stats for this but just watching the games he seems to be forcing the issue too much and not making the smart/right plays, leading to turnovers way too much. It's concealed by the fact he's playing with Matthews and putting up numbers. It's not all bad, still very talented, but feels like when he puts up the numbers it's because he cheats, as opposed to Willy who is the smarter and more effective player right now. I'm much more willing to let Marner walk than Nylander at this point.

It's reasonable to be concerned with the cap allocation, but that's only a problem for next year. I suspect Tavares, if resigned, will be much cheaper. They need to take more of a hard line with Marner than Nylander IMO.

 

[GQS]

Between Nylander, Marner and Matthews I'm probably least pissed off with Willie's contract because he at least took a middle 7.5x6 deal before getting his payday while Marner and Matthews both went for max money on their 1st non-elc contract and it wasn't even for 8 years.

 

[Divine]

Can't believe Nylander got more than Pastrnak after a 60 goal 115 point season

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I wouldn’t call all these years of entertainment failures. Now the few before we got Matty and the Ballard years now they were failures. Your post reminds me of my mom, if I don’t become a Dr. I failed…

There has definitely been entertainment and it's obviously better than back then but that's not really the point. If they were making deep runs somewhat consistently I would have a different opinion

 

[Leafs87]

I always believed 11.5X8 is reserved for players who are still good if/when their offence declines. Nylander has no layers to his game, and even his offence isn’t strong enough to warrant this. All around wtf deal to me. Hoping they trade Marner to round out the team. If he comes in at 12+, this team will be where SJS are in a few years.

 

[Menzinger]

The reason being there aren't many teams that can front load the contracts like Leafs can.

Below is the breakdown
View attachment 798960

Nylander can invest 10 million for a meagre return of 2% for the year on July 1st as a lumpsum instead of waiting months to do it. Then next year on July 1st he can re-invest 20 million with a span of 12 months - compound it and see how sweet it is compared to getting paid 11.5 over the course of the playing year.

The whole idea of giving out fully front loaded contract is to lower the AAV;

For comparison look at Pasta's contract structure
View attachment 798962


How is it that we gave Nylander not only the fully front loaded contract but also full NMC and did not get anything in return in terms of AAV. I just don't understand why does Shanahan keep screwing the pooch so bad

EDIT (adding more info): Here is a signing bonus primer

https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/documents/1943269/1943331/Signing_bonus_planning_for_sports_professionals.pdf/2ebb1a52-d371-4152-8915-8a714163238a

Same applies when you consider the Canada-Sweden tax treaty

View Treaty - Canada.ca

www.treaty-accord.gc.ca

I get that there's a logic to it should be lowering contracts, but in practice it doesn't seem to have much effect on aav. Leafs haven't been the only team to use bonuses and I can't (at least from memory) think of another team that's used bonuses and gotten that result

That said, it's clear that Nylanders agent got what he wanted, no argument there.

 

[Divine]

I get that there's a logic to it should be lowering contracts, but in practice it doesn't seem to have much effect on aav. Leafs haven't been the only team to use bonuses and I can't (at least from memory) think of another team that's used bonuses and gotten that result

That said, it's clear that Nylanders agent got what he wanted, no argument there.

So why give him the bonus?

The Leafs were the only team that was going to give him 92M. Nylander is also the player that cheats for offense the most on the team. I guess the Leafs don't value defense when offense gets you everything.

 

[Americanadian]

In four years he'd be looking for 14, so 11.5x8 is more palatable.

I’m four years he’ll be 32. 0 chance he’ll be worth 11.5 let alone 14.

 

[Mentat]

LOVE the term, HATE the AAV and the NMC for the whole contract.
11,5 per is about 1 to 1,5M higher than what i´ve would´ve been confortable paying Willy.
Yet again, we got fleeced and are hard pressed against the cap.
In a couple of seasons, this AAV will be a lot more palatable. Untill then, lettuce hope that Willy can play lights out on a regular basis. He´s a great player to have on our roster.

 

[nuck]

Brendan Shanahan is a JOKE! A snake thats killing the leafs

No he is dense. He is just not a very smart man. Kyle sold him on a model of how things could work and he bought into it hook line and sinker. He has gone so far down the path, endorsing this model for years and assuring the Board it is a viable way, that even with KD gone, he is stuck there.

But really with solid playoff goaltending, there is a chance for this group. Since 2018 the club has had 3 playoffs where their goalies were .922, .934 and .936. One of those years their #2 C got suspended and another their #2C got kneed in the head. They had a rookie coach when they lost the third series. If they go into this playoff with a #2C, a goalie with a Sv% better than .898, and a coach who is not a rookie, that will be a first for this group. It is possible that with Woll in for Sammy, or with JT not getting concussed, or with Kadri not being suspended they could have had multiple deep playoff runs. They certainly wouldn't have been less competitive right?

I want Shanny to take his talents to South Beach more than anyone but in spite of him they are still a legit team. Overpaying Willie shows they are inept but it doesn't mean Willie isn't a guy who can earn that in the next playoff right? Matthew could score 65 and Mitch could get 100 and Jones could play like the Jones of old and none of that is a real reach. Save the pitchforks for April when they will be more satisfying

 

[frog]

Treliving ruined it. Nylander only tries when he has a contract coming up and money on his mind... There is no incentive for nylander to take a hit to make a play or to not float now. We all know he is at his best when he is on an ending contract. Nylander is done playing for the next 8 years and back to the lazy effort and avoiding corners.. Ugh i cant even believe it he was playing so well

 

[nuck]

LOVE the term, HATE the AAV.
11,5 per is about 1 to 1,5M higher than what i´ve would´ve been confortable paying Willy.
Yet again, we got fleeced and are hard pressed against the cap.
In a couple of seasons, this AAV will be a lot more palatable. Untill then, lettuce hope that Willy can play lights out on a regular basis. He´s a great player to have on our roster.

No the term blows as bad as the AAV. The chances he is a top 20 player the final 2-3 years is extremely slim. Having a 65pt no hit winger making $11.5 with a NM is just a roadblock to a possible retool. But like M & M they will have him through the peak years and thats where a Cup might be.

 

[Sypher04]

Treliving ruined it. Nylander only tries when he has a contract coming up and money on his mind... There is no incentive for nylander to take a hit to make a play or to not float now. We all know he is at his best when he is on an ending contract. Nylander is done playing for the next 8 years and back to the lazy effort and avoiding corners.. Ugh i cant even believe it he was playing so well

What a garbage take. Hate the term, hate the AAV, whatever, but this character assassination of Nylander you present here is utter nonsense and not remotely accurate.

 

[PromisedLand]

I agree. Next season is gone essentially but the window is still wide open in 2025-2026 if we don't do stupid shit with Marner/Tavares. And honestly anything can happen if you make the dance and find that spark with hot goaltending at the right time. Just keep making the dance and hope the boys find that desire that's all we can do.

past indication has to have some meaning of future predictors.

- Matthews/Marner get shut down Keefe never breaks them
- Clog the neutral zone and Leafs jsut keep playing on the outside
It is here that we need quality pieces.

In terms of probabilities, IMO,

1) Goalie getting hot is about 1% chance very rare
2) Players finding desire to go for the cup is 5% chance (ex: look at Marleau, Jumbo, etc... their so called desire came in late in life; compared to other players IMO)
3) Leafs defense holding up not that high a probability
4) When high AAV players get stopped in the playoffs, you need secondary scoring from somewhere; this secondary scoring usually are quality pieces which we can't afford on offense or defense. Leafs as they are currently constructed; where defense and depth peices contribute significantly when high AAV players are stopped is very low probability

all 4 happening at the same time with the Leafs thats like a 0.001% chance IMO especially with Keefe at the helm. Its not zero but very close to zero.

I am not surprised Marner would want well north of $11.5M

I am surprised it's already being leaked to reporters on the day Willy signs lol

Marner is already working on "Letter to the fans" 2nd edition that he did when he signed his first contract

 

[MK78]

Chiming in late here... I'm not loving the amount, but at least he's the first guy to actually commit to 8 years here.

But adding up his previous contract and entry level plus this, in 17 years he will cost an average of $8.3M.

Thats not too bad if you ask me.

If they didn't pay him, they couldn't find a replacement player to sign of his caliber at that moment.

 

[Sypher04]

No the term blows as bad as the AAV. The chances he is a top 20 player the final 2-3 years is extremely slim. Having a 65pt no hit winger making $11.5 with a NM is just a roadblock to a possible retool. But like M & M they will have him through the peak years and thats where a Cup might be.

No reason right now to think Nylander’s game will notably regress in the later portions of this deal. The style he plays is not at all unsustainable as he ages, and he’s been very healthy in his career

Also he doesn’t necessarily even need to be top 20 in 5 years. Plenty of players will be making more than him by then.

 

[Strangle]

The idiots on reddit are celebrating this contract and professing their love for Nylander as if this was the end game for all of us.

It’s super disgusting, those morons have forgotten that getting a big pay day isn’t the main goal in the NHL (or it shouldn’t be). It’s winning the Stanley Cup

 

[Leaffan1991]

Feel bad for Rielly. Clearly took less than what he could have got to help the team and then his teammates just milk every single possible dollar that they can

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Folks keep repeating this, but is there a single contract where this has actually happened? Not trying to be argumentative, but can't think of any.

Bonuses are definitely a way to attract a player, but I don't see much evidence around the league of it leading to cheaper deals overall

If there weren't so many NMC on this team I would suggest that (bonuses) help both parties in a contract. The Leafs would be able to trade the player in the last couple of years with most of the money paid out...would increase the amount of cheaper teams that would want the player. But alas...I speak of magical things like a world without NMC's handed out like candy. These idiot GM's do it to themselves all the time. Thus the salary cap.

 

[Strangle]

Feel bad for Rielly. Clearly took less than what he could have got to help the team and then his teammates just milk every single possible dollar that they can

He’s a defenseman, he knows the team won’t pay for goalies or defense

 

[Evilhomer]

im not a dubas fan but come on...35 milly guaranteed, full control of hockey ops. Yea, what a dope..

He would have been a dope to not take that offer.

 

[PeteBestondrums]

Can you imagine how hot it's going to get if (more probably: when) the Leafs get bounced out of the 1st round again?

 

[capfit9]

the Leafs have f***ed their fans so much psychologically they now have Stockholm syndrome & will try to rationalize everything

 

[ACC1224]

Can you imagine how hot it's going to get if (more probably: when) the Leafs get bounced out of the 1st round again?

Fingers crossed, eh?

 

[BallardEra]

And what are you doing in this dream?

Cheering them both on.