Proposal: Nylander+ lilegren+ 2019 1st for ekblad

[The Winter Soldier]

I think we have to ask “why did the Leafs MVP” play drop at that point suddenly? Exhausted? Overplayed? Suddenly become a bad goalie for 7 game window?

What is forgotten is Andersen stole a couple of games against Boston to make it a 7 game series. I think he just played to his level. It's very rare to have a Tim Thomas like sustainable playoffs. The Bruins play for high percentage shots, and it would be hard pressed for any goalie to look great against them. Simply put, the Bruins were better than the Leafs. Another forgotten fact from that series was Rask had a worst first rd than Andersen last year. If he had been more Rask like, the series would have not gone 7.

 

[Znith]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting going out to get DD or anything......but let’s be honest the RHD is......weak (being polite). Add one true top 4 RHD play him on the top pairing and bump everyone down one pairing. Decide where Hainsey or Z play on 2nd or 3rd pairing. Might even rotate them to keep old man Hainsey fresher for the playoffs and give him some 3rd pairing mins during the season.

Leafs have the assets to get a top 4 guy, the bigger problem is finding someone willing to part with one.

Leafs fan here who completely agrees with this.

Just don't like trading for Ekblad because the contract would kill us.

I'd much prefer going after Pesce because
A) Cap hit of ~$4m long term
B) lower cost to aquire

Rielly-Pesce
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Hainsey
Ozhiganov, Holl as extras

 

[firstemperor]

I would say it slightly differently:

Leafs don’t “have to” upgrade their defence, but it would be very desirable to do so. If anything happened to Andersen (hurt or his play falls) who has been the Leafs MVP for the last 2.5 years and they needed to depend on just an average goalie they would be in trouble. Leafs depend heavily on Andersen for their success which is fine, as long as he can stay healthy, maintain his play and doesn’t get wore down during the playoffs.

As the Leafs are currently constructed their a very good team and without doubt a top 5 cup favourite. With a defence upgrade they instantly become the top cup contender IMO. Being the top cup contender doesn’t guarantee anyone anything, but it does incrementally improve your odds of winning.

Good post, but I still think Tampa is the clear favorite right now and would likely remain so, it would swing a bit depending on who we add.

As for Andersen, I think he's awesome but there's no doubt he wasn't good in the Bruins series. IMO, Rask did indeed outplay him (Rask was underwhelming himself) but not enough to swing the series, Andersen could have easily won it for us- it was a very close series overall.

Lol...120 games minus the playoffs...tell me, is Hainsey an NHL top pairing D in 2019? Tell me, how did our defense do last year in the playoffs? Tell me, how did our defense do 2 years ago in the playoffs?

If you think our defense has a shot at competing for the cup, then i don't know what to tell you.

I am a huge Leafs fan, but let's be real here....our D is not physical enough to compete in a 7 game series. All the opponent has to do is dump the puck in on the right side. Name another cup contender with a RHD core as bad as Hainsey/Zaitsev/Oz.

We might have the worst RHD in the league but the best LHD group (or at least very close to the best) in the league. We need an upgrade for sure either way on our right side.

I wouldn't be so hard on the Leafs though. Boston was the best team in the NHL since the new year, last season, and are a top 5 team in the NHL roughly, by my books. They ice the best line in hockey and play a brand of hockey that can translate very well in the playoffs if the refs swallow their whistles. They have their weaknesses, which we began to figure out as the series went on (like skating them to the ground). No shame losing to them in a series where very elementary differences could have won us the series.

You also have to consider our core group was and still is very young so there's more room for optimism either way.

IMO, our series took a toll on Boston and that led to their early exit against Tampa.

 

[Liferleafer]

Good post, but I still think Tampa is the clear favorite right now and would likely remain so, it would swing a bit depending on who we add.

As for Andersen, I think he's awesome but there's no doubt he wasn't good in the Bruins series. IMO, Rask did indeed outplay him (Rask was underwhelming himself) but not enough to swing the series, Andersen could have easily won it for us- it was a very close series overall.



We might have the worst RHD in the league but the best LHD group (or at least very close to the best) in the league. We need an upgrade for sure either way on our right side.

I wouldn't be so hard on the Leafs though. Boston was the best team in the NHL since the new year, last season, and are a top 5 team in the NHL roughly, by my books. No shame losing to them in a series where very elementary differences could have won us the series.

IMO, our series took a toll on Boston and that led to their early exit against Tampa.

Agreed. Imagine how much better Rielly or even Gardiner would be without carrying Hainsey/Zaitsev. I won't even begin to talk about Dermott with Oz.

And i'm not hard on the Leafs at all...but i am a realist. We need a D upgrade...period. Now i'm not talking about a massive overpay, if that's all that is out there, then stand pat. But i have already listed multiple previous trades that were not the insane prices people keep saying the Leafs need to pay.

 

[Hunter368]

I 100% the Leafs will add a Dman between now and the deadline. It's what most contenders try to do.

Dubas gathered a lot of picks early on for this exact reason....to have bullets in the gun to use when needed. Personally, I DO think this year is the perfect time for it. Doing it before the raises of 3 young great players just makes sense.

Cap space itself is an asset. And this year they have it without worry. Going forward, it gets trickier. So take the shot.

Agreed

IMO this year is the Leafs “best chance” at the cup before all the huge raises kick in. Don’t get me wrong they like other top 5 teams will be contenders for years still, but this year is their “best” chance. IMO

 

[Hunter368]

What is forgotten is Andersen stole a couple of games against Boston to make it a 7 game series. I think he just played to his level. It's very rare to have a Tim Thomas like sustainable playoffs. The Bruins play for high percentage shots, and it would be hard pressed for any goalie to look great against them. Simply put, the Bruins were better than the Leafs. Another forgotten fact from that series was Rask had a worst first rd than Andersen last year. If he had been more Rask like, the series would have not gone 7.

Don’t disagree and yes I remember Andersen did stand on his head at parts of that series......Boston was the better team over 7 games.

 

[Hunter368]

Leafs fan here who completely agrees with this.

Just don't like trading for Ekblad because the contract would kill us.

I'd much prefer going after Pesce because
A) Cap hit of ~$4m long term
B) lower cost to aquire

Rielly-Pesce
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Hainsey
Ozhiganov, Holl as extras

I’m not advocating this threads OP deal in the least......IMO it’s terrible for the Leafs. But there could be more realistic deals out there that would help the Leafs significantly at a reasonable cost.

 

[Tripod]

Agreed

IMO this year is the Leafs “best chance” at the cup before all the huge raises kick in. Don’t get me wrong they like other top 5 teams will be contenders for years still, but this year is their “best” chance. IMO

It very well could be because in the future, you don't have a vet guy like Marleau to help. Or likely a prime Gardiner. Instead, you have inexperienced prospects/players filling those roles due to cap reasons.

We all know how good Matthews and Marner are. The difference this year, along with Nylander....is the VALUE vs teh cap hit. It's insane this year. Next year, it's market rate.

That matters.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Don’t disagree and yes I remember Andersen did stand on his head at parts of that series......Boston was the better team over 7 games.

Yeah, that's how I recall it. Actually I think Rask played worse than Andersen that series, it is a credit to the Bruins team for winning that series. Andersen did steal 2 games atleast that series.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting going out to get DD or anything......but let’s be honest the RHD is......weak (being polite). Add one true top 4 RHD play him on the top pairing and bump everyone down one pairing. Decide where Hainsey or Z play on 2nd or 3rd pairing. Might even rotate them to keep old man Hainsey fresher for the playoffs and give him some 3rd pairing mins during the season.

Leafs have the assets to get a top 4 guy, the bigger problem is finding someone willing to part with one.

Of course I would like to add a top 4 RHD, most teams would. However not at the prices people are quoted around here, especially with the leaf premium that posters have admitted because it would be the final piece the leafs need.

Gardiner and Z have been one of the best 2nd pairings in the league. Dont see that pairing getting broken up, Hainsey likely gets bumped down to the third to play with Dermott.

 

[Hunter368]

It very well could be because in the future, you don't have a vet guy like Marleau to help. Or likely a prime Gardiner. Instead, you have inexperienced prospects/players filling those roles due to cap reasons.

We all know how good Matthews and Marner are. The difference this year, along with Nylander....is the VALUE vs teh cap hit. It's insane this year. Next year, it's market rate.

That matters.

Agreed

Leafs will be a contender for years.....but their chance to win is at highest this year IMO. Geez just look at big three raises alone, Nylander going to 6.9, AM around 11 and Marner around 9.......even with older players leaving the team like Marleau & Gardiner etc.....they have entered cap hell next season. Things get much tougher for them after that to add players, deal with injuries, rolling over exp guys for rookies on a yearly basis not bc they want to but bc they have to, etc etc. This is the best year to grab for the cup.

Before any teen poster screams at me for Leaf hate........everything I stated above applies to “all top 5 teams” who are in cap hell already not just the Leafs so chill.....but in this thread we’re talking Leafs only and they’re just entering cap hell next year.

 

[Hunter368]

Yeah, that's how I recall it. Actually I think Rask played worse than Andersen that series, it is a credit to the Bruins team for winning that series. Andersen did steal 2 games atleast that series.

Overall both goalies were not good.....but we have to ask why weren’t two top goalies producing very well. I think the answers are different between the two goalies as to why.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The crazy thing is, all 3 of our wins in that series came in games we were outshot...2 of them being badly outshot.

The really badly outshot one the leafs had 8 penalties to 3 penalties for Boston but I do remember those games and how well Andy played in game 3 in particular.

Again not saying adding a top 4 RHD wouldn't help, it obviously would but I think the leafs can win playoffs series with the current defense.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Hamonic-1st+2nd+2nd
Hamilton- 1st+2nd+2nd
Phaneuf- (TOR/Ott)a bag of cap dumps (OTT/LA) cap dump+meh
Karlsson- 1st+2nd+Tierny+a bunch of meh
McDonagh (with Miller)- 1st+2nd+Namestnikov+Howden
Vatanen -Henrique+Blandisi+3rd
Cole-Nick Moutry (Who??)+20203rd
Holden-Rob O'Gara (Who??)+3rd


You see any Nylander+ deals there? You see any Marner level guys there? This site has recently told us (Leafs fans) that Kapanen+Sandin is not enough for Petry (who, by the way, Montreal acquired in 2015 for a massive price of 2nd+cond 5th). That Marner would be the "starting point" for Petro. So tell me why the Leafs can't use a 1st+2nd+2nd/prospect to land a guy like Tanev? Tell me Gudas would cost a ton. tell me Edler costs Nylander.

This bull**** that "Leafs fans refuse to trade for D" is a myth...what we don't understand is why other teams can make trades like the ones i listed...yet Toronto has to go full Larsson for Hall.

I agree it's probably not necessary to trade Nylander, but is he worth more than a 1st+2nd+2nd? Maybe a bit but not much so I wouldn't get all insulted about that. Marner is worth a lot more so yeah that's a bit silly.

Petry was acquired as a pending UFA rental and then was extended, Bergevin has a very solid record of making quality trades at deadline time. That's certainly an option for Toronto to just do, acquire a rental and it could be cheaper but maybe not if it's a seller's market this year.

 

[Liferleafer]

I agree it's probably not necessary to trade Nylander, but is he worth more than a 1st+2nd+2nd? Maybe a bit but not much so I wouldn't get all insulted about that. Marner is worth a lot more so yeah that's a bit silly.

Petry was acquired as a pending UFA rental and then was extended, Bergevin has a very solid record of making quality trades at deadline time. That's certainly an option for Toronto to just do, acquire a rental and it could be cheaper but maybe not if it's a seller's market this year.

2 time 61 point forward...22 years old, with a contract that after July 1st next year pays him 4.5 in real cash? Are you serious?

 

[Burke the Legend]

2 time 61 point forward...22 years old, with a contract that after July 1st next year pays him 4.5 in real cash? Are you serious?

Yes. Maybe you can "be serious" then and tell us how much you think he is worth in terms of draft picks? Four 1sts? Three 1sts? Two 1sts and a 2nd?

Montreal just got rid of a very successful but soft perimeter winger in Pacioretty for a 1st (Suzuki), 2nd and then Tatar (Don't look at #s now, his value at the time of the trade is debatable). How much more valuable is Nylander then Pacioretty?

 

[Liferleafer]

Yes. Maybe you can "be serious" then and tell us how much you think he is worth in terms of draft picks? Four 1sts? Three 1sts? Two 1sts and a 2nd?

Why is Toronto trading him for picks? I don't get it. There isn't an answer here...Leafs aren't trading a core piece while going for the playoffs/cup for picks. And even if the Leafs were in rebuild mode...you don't trade a 22 year old like Nylander for picks. I guess if you are asking do i value him more than trading our 1st+2nd+2nd...than the answer is an easy yes.

In other words, would i trade our 1st+2nd+ for Edler? Yes. Would i trade Nylander for Edler? No.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Agreed

Leafs will be a contender for years.....but their chance to win is at highest this year IMO. Geez just look at big three raises alone, Nylander going to 6.9, AM around 11 and Marner around 9.......even with older players leaving the team like Marleau & Gardiner etc.....they have entered cap hell next season. Things get much tougher for them after that to add players, deal with injuries, rolling over exp guys for rookies on a yearly basis not bc they want to but bc they have to, etc etc. This is the best year to grab for the cup.

Before any teen poster screams at me for Leaf hate........everything I stated above applies to “all top 5 teams” who are in cap hell already not just the Leafs so chill.....but in this thread we’re talking Leafs only and they’re just entering cap hell next year.

I don't want to nitpick. But Nylander is getting essentially 7M per. 6.96M. Some have said this is a fair number if he produces to it in future years. But I say, this is non essential point since we know Ehlers is at 6M, Larkin at 6.1, and Pasta who is in his own higher tier is at 6.67M. But agreed, this is the Leafs best chance this season. Next season, the bank doors will be blown off the hinges. With Matthews, Marner, and now Kapanen as likely big pay days. Also they will lose Gardiner, no way to sign him with so many contracts up, and up being the operative word.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Why is Toronto trading him for picks? I don't get it. There isn't an answer here...Leafs aren't trading a core piece while going for the playoffs/cup for picks. And even if the Leafs were in rebuild mode...you don't trade a 22 year old like Nylander for picks.

Hah way to evade...And right after you cited young big name D-men who were traded for picks (Hamilton, twice, and Hamonic) you say that same measure doesn't apply to Nylander.

 

[4thline]

Yes. Maybe you can "be serious" then and tell us how much you think he is worth in terms of draft picks? Four 1sts? Three 1sts? Two 1sts and a 2nd?

Depends on the pick placement.

But traditional NHL player valuation wrt picks hilariously undervalues players with term.

 

[Liferleafer]

Hah way to evade...And right after you cited young big name D-men who were traded for picks (Hamilton, twice, and Hamonic) you say that same measure doesn't apply to Nylander.

I truly don"t understand what you are arguing here.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed

Leafs will be a contender for years.....but their chance to win is at highest this year IMO. Geez just look at big three raises alone, Nylander going to 6.9, AM around 11 and Marner around 9.......even with older players leaving the team like Marleau & Gardiner etc.....they have entered cap hell next season. Things get much tougher for them after that to add players, deal with injuries, rolling over exp guys for rookies on a yearly basis not bc they want to but bc they have to, etc etc. This is the best year to grab for the cup.

Before any teen poster screams at me for Leaf hate........everything I stated above applies to “all top 5 teams” who are in cap hell already not just the Leafs so chill.....but in this thread we’re talking Leafs only and they’re just entering cap hell next year.

On the other hand, TB is looking at cap issues as well and Boston's top players are past their prime. The Leafs on the other hand are still so young and so all things considered, 2-3 years from now, the path to get to the 3rd round could be easier than it is now. What's happening now in the Atlantic is unusual and it's not likely to stay that way for long.

It's hard to see any team having more than a 15% shot at the cup in any given year going forward and at the same time, it's hard to see teams like the Leafs and TB having much less than a 10% shot so keying on any one year seems like a mistake. IMHO, deadline acquisitions just aren't worth what they used to be because there is so much parity in the NHL, back when there were 4-5 main contenders per season they made more sense but today, when you have a young talented team I think it makes more sense to stick to the long term plan and not sacrifice the future to increase your chances by 1-2% for just one season.

 

[Liferleafer]

Yes. Maybe you can "be serious" then and tell us how much you think he is worth in terms of draft picks? Four 1sts? Three 1sts? Two 1sts and a 2nd?

Montreal just got rid of a very successful but soft perimeter winger in Pacioretty for a 1st (Suzuki), 2nd and then Tatar (Don't look at #s now, his value at the time of the trade is debatable). How much more valuable is Nylander then Pacioretty?

Umm...a lot?
22 years old>30 years old.
At the time of the trade, Patch had this year under contract...Nylander 6 years.
Even now, Patches 7 mil cap hit...Nylander 6.96. And after July 1st, Nylander's actual salary is 4.5...that's very desirable for a budget team.

 

[Hunter368]

On the other hand, TB is looking at cap issues as well and Boston's top players are past their prime. The Leafs on the other hand are still so young and so all things considered, 2-3 years from now, the path to get to the 3rd round could be easier than it is now. What's happening now in the Atlantic is unusual and it's not likely to stay that way for long.

It's hard to see any team having more than a 15% shot at the cup in any given year going forward and at the same time, it's hard to see teams like the Leafs and TB having much less than a 10% shot so keying on any one year seems like a mistake. IMHO, deadline acquisitions just aren't worth what they used to be because there is so much parity in the NHL, back when there were 4-5 main contenders per season they made more sense but today, when you have a young talented team I think it makes more sense to stick to the long term plan and not sacrifice the future to increase your chances by 1-2% for just one season.

Agreed on some points

Funny I just posted in a different thread how the top contender vs the 10th placed team the % chance win cup, difference between them isn’t as much as some might think. Hardest championship in pro sports to win.

 

[4thline]

Agreed on some points

Funny I just posted in a different thread how the top contender vs the 10th placed team the % chance win cup, difference between them isn’t as much as some might think. Hardest championship in pro sports to win.

One my pet peeves is how recently "contender" seems to have taken on the meaning of "favourite"