Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.
- Thread starter Warden of the North
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GoodNewfieBoy
We got a guy
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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Marner vs Rantanen's production has been pretty similar over the past 3 years, both players scoring 263 points, with Rantanen having the slightly higher top end finish of 105 points to Marner's best of 99.
Where the comparison goes sideways if you want to argue Mitch is better is the fact that Rantanen is a playoff performer with a Stanley Cup and a beast physically, and a 50 goal scorer. So if the Leafs seem to fade away in the playoffs when teams get in their grille and box them out to the perimeter, you ask yourself if you want to put Matthews out there with Mitch, or if you want him out there with Rantanen forming a 6'4" duo with 60 and 50 goal capability. It's no contest. I'd say Rantanen is a more compelling comparison to Auston Matthews than Mitch Marner.
Then you factor in the money. $10.9 million vs $9.25 million. Frankly it would make more sense if Mitch made the lower dollar figure and Rantanen made the $10.9.
The interesting news is Mitch and Mikko are both pending UFA's after 2024-25, which might be an interesting re-do of the 2015 draft.
notDatsyuk
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notDatsyuk
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As an FYI, 'fify' means 'fixed it for you', but with a sarcastic bent. If I changed 'winner' to 'whiner', I would say 'fify'.
My personal favourite is 'salts' instead of 'lol' - 'smiled a little, then stopped '.
notDatsyuk
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True, but we're talking about the same team that devotes $11M to a second line C who should be a second line winger or 3C.
And Willy is perfectly capable of being a first line winger (oops - that would make our second line winger $11M).
HOW can you say that with a straight face when it comes THE MOST important thing Rantanen is MILES ahead.
Playoff scoring:
Rantanen: 30 G 87 pts in 70 games Deciding games: 2 G 1 A in 3 games
Marner: 10 G 47 pts in 50 games DECIDING games: 0 G 2 A in 5 games
Marner is the most mentallly weak player in the league.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
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Not what was said. It's like some here just take turns making the most unsubstantiated claims to take shots. Not the action of a fan imo. Was it your turn?
Don't disagree with anything u said.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
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In truth, you weren't clear and I can't fathom what period of time you are talking about. Contract comparables require more than a spot of a career year.
What does that have to do with the contract he signed 4 years ago?
For Marner, 34 seconds of PP time per game is worth about 6 more points a season.
Marner actually produces better on the PP throughout his career (6.97 > 6.27). The reason Rantanen gets more time has absolutely nothing to do with their quality on the PP.
Matthews is one of the best PP goal-scorers in the league.
Over the past 3 years, Marner has produced better at 5v5 (3.09 > 2.41) and similarly on the PP (6.60 vs. 6.84), while also bringing top tier PK impacts and massively better defense.
Racer88
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- Sep 29, 2020
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The issue is he is NOW your second most valued asset. Mitchy is one, WN is two.
Willie is a Leaf, he is tradeable. AM is not longer tradeable and now has no value. Willie must be signed. Even if over paid he has value in trade market and on the ice. What will we look like next year when we lose both WN and AM for nothing. Give him 9.5m for 3 years and then trade him, NOW.
ULF_55
Moderator
I disagree to a point.
I think the real money waste is the 4th. line.
At times it's like they get their 6-8 minutes because they're dressed, not because they're going to be a positive impact on the team. "They hold their own out there!" Wow, that's great eh?
But anyway, Elias Lindholm or Nylander both / either on the 2nd. line at 9 I'd be fine with. The real issue with the Leafs wouldn't be Lindhold or Nylander it's another player making $2mm more than both.
Gary Nylund
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- Oct 10, 2013
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To me that's the dumbest part of all these discussions comparing Marner to his peers - the guys pumping his tires never include playoffs in any comparisons.
Regular season Marner at 11 million is still overpaid but not by enough that it would be a huge issue. Playoff Marner is another story because playoff Marner <<< regular season Marner and that's my problem with him in a nutshell. Guys so much fun to watch, his skating, passing, stickwork, he's as slick a performer as they come during the regular season but when the game changes to playoff hockey and the big boys take it up a notch, his effectiveness goes way down and he falls well behind players like Rantanen, Pasta, Kuch etc.
If you want to have fun watching games during the regular season and forget the playoffs even exist, Marner's your boy.
If you want to win the cup however, so far it looks like paying such a big percentage of the cap to Marner hurts rather than helps your chances and you're probably better off spending that cap space differently.
JAS 39 Gripen
Registered User
This, and I only come to this part of the forum to laugh at the ones who dosn't get it.
Though, he's already overpaid for what he does in the regular season as well.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
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Mikko Rantanen is in the bottom 6 percentile in the league defensively.
All you hockey wizards never understood what cheating defense for offense means. The bottom 6th percentile means he is so far below average, he is worse than a pylon.
Go over to the Avs group if you have a hardon for him but I much prefer players who play a 2 way game.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
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When discussing salaries weighted by contribution, the statistical noise can be somewhat overwhelming.
I get that stats can be misleading at the micro-level. The differences between players can be somewhat miniscule and the margin of error can often exceed the differential.
I looked at the league table last year(regular season) for GAR, WAR and SPAR.
GAR-goal above replacement, WAR-wins above replacement and SPAR-standing points above replacement.
I then rank ordered the league and filtered out where each Leaf player stood in Rankings. The large swings in ranking are definitive. The smaller swings represent noise. For example, there seems to be little to differentiate Jarnkrok from Kampf as far as impact goes. There are differences but they are statistically undifferentiated.
The data pretty well speaks volumes because the big 4 really are only the big 2 when talking elite. The talk of salary parity or comparables are pretty laughable.
I get that stats can be misleading at the micro-level. The differences between players can be somewhat miniscule and the margin of error can often exceed the differential.
I looked at the league table last year(regular season) for GAR, WAR and SPAR.
GAR-goal above replacement, WAR-wins above replacement and SPAR-standing points above replacement.
I then rank ordered the league and filtered out where each Leaf player stood in Rankings. The large swings in ranking are definitive. The smaller swings represent noise. For example, there seems to be little to differentiate Jarnkrok from Kampf as far as impact goes. There are differences but they are statistically undifferentiated.
The data pretty well speaks volumes because the big 4 really are only the big 2 when talking elite. The talk of salary parity or comparables are pretty laughable.
| Player | Season | Team | Position | GP | GAR | GAR Rank | WAR | WAR rank | SPAR | SPAR Rank |
| Auston Matthews | 22-23 | TOR | C | 74 | 24.9 | 6 | 4.2 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Mitch Marner | 22-23 | TOR | R | 80 | 22.3 | 10 | 3.8 | 10 | 7.2 | 10 |
| Tj Brodie | 22-23 | TOR | D | 58 | 13.7 | 63 | 2.3 | 61 | 4.4 | 62 |
| William Nylander | 22-23 | TOR | R | 82 | 13.2 | 65 | 2.2 | 65 | 4.3 | 64 |
| John Tavares | 22-23 | TOR | C | 80 | 10.3 | 113 | 1.7 | 113 | 3.3 | 113 |
| Alex Kerfoot | 22-23 | TOR | C | 82 | 8 | 178 | 1.4 | 158 | 2.6 | 173 |
| Michael Bunting | 22-23 | TOR | L | 82 | 8.1 | 174 | 1.4 | 158 | 2.6 | 173 |
| Justin Holl | 22-23 | TOR | D | 80 | 7.9 | 181 | 1.3 | 181 | 2.6 | 173 |
| Conor Timmins | 22-23 | TOR | D | 25 | 6.5 | 222 | 1.1 | 213 | 2.1 | 220 |
| Mark Giordano | 22-23 | TOR | D | 78 | 6.1 | 242 | 1 | 239 | 2 | 230 |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 22-23 | TOR | C | 13 | 5.8 | 250 | 1 | 239 | 1.9 | 246 |
| Calle Jarnkrok | 22-23 | TOR | C | 73 | 4.9 | 279 | 0.8 | 274 | 1.6 | 272 |
| David Kampf | 22-23 | TOR | C | 82 | 5 | 273 | 0.8 | 274 | 1.6 | 272 |
| Jake McCabe | 22-23 | TOR | D | 21 | 4 | 312 | 0.7 | 299 | 1.3 | 305 |
| Joey Anderson | 22-23 | TOR | R | 14 | 4.1 | 306 | 0.7 | 299 | 1.3 | 305 |
| Morgan Rielly | 22-23 | TOR | D | 65 | 3.5 | 338 | 0.6 | 322 | 1.1 | 338 |
| Timothy Liljegren | 22-23 | TOR | D | 67 | 3.6 | 331 | 0.6 | 322 | 1.2 | 320 |
| Pierre Engvall | 22-23 | TOR | L | 58 | 2.8 | 371 | 0.5 | 354 | 0.9 | 362 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 22-23 | TOR | R | 37 | 2.9 | 362 | 0.5 | 354 | 0.9 | 362 |
| Victor Mete | 22-23 | TOR | D | 11 | 1 | 500 | 0.2 | 469 | 0.3 | 498 |
| Nicholas Robertson | 22-23 | TOR | L | 15 | 0.8 | 515 | 0.1 | 513 | 0.3 | 498 |
| Rasmus Sandin | 22-23 | TOR | D | 52 | 0.9 | 507 | 0.1 | 513 | 0.3 | 498 |
| Denis Malgin | 22-23 | TOR | C | 23 | -0.3 | 613 | 0 | 572 | -0.1 | 607 |
| Jake Muzzin | 22-23 | TOR | D | 4 | 0.1 | 578 | 0 | 572 | 0 | 577 |
| Noel Acciari | 22-23 | TOR | C | 23 | 0.3 | 567 | 0 | 572 | 0.1 | 556 |
| Jordie Benn | 22-23 | TOR | D | 12 | -0.8 | 665 | -0.1 | 618 | -0.3 | 666 |
| Mac Hollowell | 22-23 | TOR | D | 6 | -0.3 | 613 | -0.1 | 618 | -0.1 | 607 |
| Zach Aston-Reese | 22-23 | TOR | C | 77 | -0.3 | 613 | -0.1 | 618 | -0.1 | 607 |
| Dryden Hunt | 22-23 | TOR | L | 9 | -0.9 | 674 | -0.2 | 677 | -0.3 | 666 |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 22-23 | TOR | R | 6 | -1.1 | 693 | -0.2 | 677 | -0.4 | 700 |
| Sam Lafferty | 22-23 | TOR | C | 19 | -1.4 | 723 | -0.2 | 677 | -0.5 | 727 |
| Bobby McMann | 22-23 | TOR | C | 10 | -1.8 | 759 | -0.3 | 731 | -0.6 | 755 |
| Erik Gustafsson (D) | 22-23 | TOR | D | 9 | -1.5 | 731 | -0.3 | 731 | -0.5 | 727 |
| Wayne Simmonds | 22-23 | TOR | R | 18 | -1.6 | 741 | -0.3 | 731 | -0.5 | 727 |
| Luke Schenn | 22-23 | TOR | D | 15 | -2.6 | 809 | -0.4 | 783 | -0.8 | 797 |
weems
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Notsince67
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Gary Nylund
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Rielly was perhaps our best player in the playoffs whereas M&M were not as effective as they were during the regular season, as usual.
Like I said earlier, if you don't care about the playoffs, Marner's your boy. If however you want to win the cup, at 11 million he's way overpaid.
Nice (regular season) stats though.
Punch Drunk Loov
Thought Viktor Loov was going to be a guy
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I've been mulling the Willy vs Mitch thing over for years.
I think Mitch Marner is incredibly important to actually making the playoffs and it's almost hard to believe we'd even make it without him.
Once we make the playoffs we have overwhelming evidence that he can't outplay the other team's top line.
Continuing to roll this back seems to be using the strategy of, "once we're in you never know what can happen". It's not great, and not likely to succeed but I guess it's almost impossible to build a team where you are bullish. The difference being is that we almost never make the 2nd round and other good teams make the 2nd round as a routine accomplishment.
Just rip the bandaid off and trade the guy. Won't happen though.
I think Mitch Marner is incredibly important to actually making the playoffs and it's almost hard to believe we'd even make it without him.
Once we make the playoffs we have overwhelming evidence that he can't outplay the other team's top line.
Continuing to roll this back seems to be using the strategy of, "once we're in you never know what can happen". It's not great, and not likely to succeed but I guess it's almost impossible to build a team where you are bullish. The difference being is that we almost never make the 2nd round and other good teams make the 2nd round as a routine accomplishment.
Just rip the bandaid off and trade the guy. Won't happen though.
In the playoffs, Marner has outplayed the opposing team's top line for 5 straight years, and has outscored them for 3 straight years.
notDatsyuk
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tuckerintensity
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How many guys who have a current cap hit of 10 million or more have won the Cup? (I don't even care if they won it on their current cap hit, I'm curious, but I bet it's well under 50%).
I don't even think the quoted statement is all that true. How many times has Erik Karlsson made the playoffs with SJ on this contract? Once? Panarin has been to the second round... twice?
Why is it surprising that someone's playoff stats are worse? Literally the worst 16 teams in the league aren't involved. It's an entirely different ball game. If you look at most players, their playoffs stats are worse than their regular season stats. Why is this surprising?
Here's a few players, comparing their regular season PPG vs playoffs PPG:
Gretzky: 1.92 reg, 1.84 post (0.08 drop)
Lemieux: 1.88 reg, 1.61 post (0.27 drop)
Yzerman: 1.16 reg, 0.94 post (0.20 drop)
Sakic: 1.19 reg, 1.09 post (0.10 drop)
Crosby: 1.26 reg, 1.12 post (0.14 drop)
Tkachuk: 0.96 reg, 0.83 post (0.13 drop)
Marner: 1.09 reg, 0.94 post (0.15 drop)
Expecting a player to put up the same production, on average, in the playoffs is not warranted. A player may get hot in a particular post season and beat his career regular season PPG - and that's usually a year where you have a good chance to win it all. But overall, don't expect a player to put up as many points in the playoffs. It simply doesn't work out that way.
Marner is what, 25, 26 years old? Writing him off at this point is simply laughable. It's a joke. Any team, if they could afford his salary cap, would love to have Marner.
Here's a few players, comparing their regular season PPG vs playoffs PPG:
Gretzky: 1.92 reg, 1.84 post (0.08 drop)
Lemieux: 1.88 reg, 1.61 post (0.27 drop)
Yzerman: 1.16 reg, 0.94 post (0.20 drop)
Sakic: 1.19 reg, 1.09 post (0.10 drop)
Crosby: 1.26 reg, 1.12 post (0.14 drop)
Tkachuk: 0.96 reg, 0.83 post (0.13 drop)
Marner: 1.09 reg, 0.94 post (0.15 drop)
Expecting a player to put up the same production, on average, in the playoffs is not warranted. A player may get hot in a particular post season and beat his career regular season PPG - and that's usually a year where you have a good chance to win it all. But overall, don't expect a player to put up as many points in the playoffs. It simply doesn't work out that way.
Marner is what, 25, 26 years old? Writing him off at this point is simply laughable. It's a joke. Any team, if they could afford his salary cap, would love to have Marner.
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