Confirmed Signing with Link: [NSH] F Steven Stamkos signs with the Predators (4 years, $8M AAV)

[triggrman]

This is a "hot take"... but honestly, reasonably well rooted.

Nashville was not a paticularily good team last year, and still have $11m in dead cap this year between Johansen, Ekholm, Duchene and Turris. That's a lot of dead cap to overcome in a playoff round. Even next year, Johansen is off, but there's still close to $9m in dead cap. It doesn't become managable until year 3 with Duchene's penalty decreasing, where they've got $3.5m in dead cap.

Now you go ahead and look at their "core" who is locked up for the next 3 years.... and their ages.

Forsberg, 29 years old, $8.5m
Stamkos, 34 years old, $8m
Marchessault, 33 years old, $5.5m
O'Reilly, 33 years old, $4.5m
Novak, 27 years old, $3.5m
Josi, 34 years old, $9.06m
Skjei, 30 years old, $7m
Carrier, 27 years old, $3.75m
Saros, 29 years old, $7.74m

There's a lot more guys (and a lot more money) that are on the tail ends of their careers than those about to enter their primes.

I don't know how we were not a good team last season. Finished way better than the experts here predicted, and after October were one of the better teams in the league, for the remainder of the season.

 

[Soundgarden]

t



4 years from now? these contracts could start to turn sour in 1...

Take Stamkos as an example... he had 81 points this year including 40 goals. 19 of his goals and 39 of his points came on the powerplay. The combination of him on the left wing, and Kucherov on the right, with the option of shoot or pass, has been absolutely deadly for the Bolts over the last few years.

There is no Kucherov on Nashville. If he pots 25-30 goals and 60 points next year, that's going to be a struggle for the Preds.

Lol, I guarantee those contracts aren't going to turn into dog shit next year.

The absolute only way Steven Stamkos' contract is a bust for us is if he scores 8 total goals in a healthy year. A 25-30 and 60 point season would be like a top 10 offensive season for Nashville, I don't think you realize how bad our offense has been historically.

We have Roman Josi, Stamkos will be fine as a PP specialist with him instead of Kucherov.

 

[JD86]

If he pots 25-30 goals and 60 points next year, that's going to be a struggle for the Preds.

Seriously? He's replacing Jankowski/Zucker/Beauvillier/Trenin etc. in the top 6 and Sissons/Glass/Novak on the power play. 30 goals and 60 points would be a massive upgrade. The Preds had no second line.

 

[paragon]

Kypreos said the other day that Tampa offered Stamkos 3M/year and that Stamkos exit wasn't pretty. Well I'd be upset too if my franchise that you've given all your life to lowballed you with that offer.

He should be angry. It's crazy to lowball like that a guy who has always given Tampa a discount. During his career he's never signed for more than 11.66% of the salary cap, not even when he was the best goal scorer in the league in early 2010s. That's the same cap percentage Point got for his latest contract and what Vasi got after his Vezina winning season.

 

[paragon]

There is no Kucherov on Nashville. If he pots 25-30 goals and 60 points next year, that's going to be a struggle for the Preds.

That's around the production you can expect from a 8M player in the league these days. DeBrincat, Horvat, Kyrou, Hertl, Fiala, PLD -money.

 

[seanlinden]

I don't know how we were not a good team last season. Finished way better than the experts here predicted, and after October were one of the better teams in the league, for the remainder of the season.

Don't get me wrong, this series of deals will likely ensure that they are a good team next year... probably comfortably in the playoffs and maybe even home ice advantage if Dallas or Colorado faulter.

However, with $11m in dead cap on the books this year, and $9m next, I don't believe that's an amount a team can overcome to go deep into the playoffs.

In year 3, they'll still have $3.5m in dead cap, plus Stamkos at 36, Marchessault at 35, ROR at 35, Josi at 36 and Skjei at 33.

It's a lot of money committed to guys that will probably be nearing the ends of their careers at that point.

Amongst 35+ year old players in the league last year, Sidney Crosby was the only 40 goal scorer and Alex Ovechkin was the only 30 goal scorer. Crosby was the only PPG+ player, and Kopitar the only other to hit 70 points.

 

[Soundgarden]

Don't get me wrong, this series of deals will likely ensure that they are a good team next year... probably comfortably in the playoffs and maybe even home ice advantage if Dallas or Colorado faulter.

However, with $11m in dead cap on the books this year, and $9m next, I don't believe that's an amount a team can overcome to go deep into the playoffs.

In year 3, they'll still have $3.5m in dead cap, plus Stamkos at 36, Marchessault at 35, ROR at 35, Josi at 36 and Skjei at 33.

It's a lot of money committed to guys that will probably be nearing the ends of their careers at that point.

Amongst 35+ year old players in the league last year, Sidney Crosby was the only 40 goal scorer and Alex Ovechkin was the only 30 goal scorer. Crosby was the only PPG+ player, and Kopitar the only other to hit 60 points.

I think you're vastly overrating how fast and how bad these guys are going to fall off.

 

[seanlinden]

I think you're vastly overrating how fast and how bad these guys are going to fall off.

I wouldn't be so sure. Players don't tend to age well beyond 35. Whether it's injuries catching up, or the game moving them by. It's somewhat exceptional for guys to be highly productive after 35.

 

[Soundgarden]

I wouldn't be so sure. Players don't tend to age well beyond 35. Whether it's injuries catching up, or the game moving them by. It's somewhat exceptional for guys to be highly productive after 35.

I'm sure we'll figure it out.

 

[JD86]

Amongst 35+ year old players in the league last year, Sidney Crosby was the only 40 goal scorer and Alex Ovechkin was the only 30 goal scorer. Crosby was the only PPG+ player, and Kopitar the only other to hit 70 points.

Why the arbitrary cutoff of 70 points? There are at least 7 35+ forwards that had between 60-70. That's good enough for top 85 in the league amongst forwards. Including Kopitar and Crosby, that makes over 10% of the top 85 scoring forwards that were 35 or older.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

 

[maplepred]

Any chance he changes his number 91 for the Preds?

 

[ThunderRoad]

Stammer in that uniform is just wrong on every level.

Geez, BriseBois...

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Stammer in that uniform is just wrong on every level.

Geez, BriseBois...

He looks odd for sure in yellow. Doesn't look right.

 

[ThunderRoad]

He looks odd for sure in yellow. Doesn't look right.

He looks like he is in a hostage situation. Not sure he thought the color coordination thing through.

My 6 year old son at his hockey practice this evening wanted to know why his favorite player isn't in Tampa any longer, and if that meant he couldn't wear his jersey anymore (which he proudly rocks both his home and alternate Stamkos jersey as often as he can).

I'm going to go shed some more tears...

 

[DFC]

Nyquist sure didn't seem to struggle at 33 years old playing with our bunch, since he put up by far the best numbers of his career playing with our band of misfit toys.

Again, Preds were 10th in goals scored last season with Sissons and Trenin playing in the top 6.

I think players are beginning to age well again. Players who came into the league before two line passes were removed struggled as they got older, but it feels like more and more of the generation who came in when the game was already fast have been productive well into their thirties. I think several of these guys have a few more good years.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

He looks like he is in a hostage situation. Not sure he thought the color coordination thing through.

My 6 year old son at his hockey practice this evening wanted to know why his favorite player isn't in Tampa any longer, and if that meant he couldn't wear his jersey anymore (which he proudly rocks both his home and alternate Stamkos jersey as often as he can).

I'm going to go shed some more tears...

Stamkos would still be a bolt if he didn't get lowballed by his own GM with a $3M/year extension. That's an insulting offer to a guy who's always taken a discount to keep the team competitive.

 

[Schennanigans]

The preds look filthy good next year. I could see them beat anyone in the west next season

 

[centipede2233]

The preds look filthy good next year. I could see them beat anyone in the west next season

They will get exploited by Edmonton’s speed if they faced each other in playoffs.

 

[Schennanigans]

They will get exploited by Edmonton’s speed if they faced each other in playoffs.

I see it evenly matched. The preds heavily outclass them in goaltending.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Stamkos would still be a bolt if he didn't get lowballed by his own GM with a $3M/year extension. That's an insulting offer to a guy who's always taken a discount to keep the team competitive.

Wasn't the rumored offer around 3M x 8? If sufficiently front-loaded, that's not so bad, given his age. Though it's also obvious cap circumvention. And apparently they also offered him shorter deals, that would likely have leveraged the use of 35+ bonuses. If Stamkos finds that insulting, he may need to do some self-examination and figure out why the team that watched him every day for years feel they have a better chance at a Cup without him.

I don't blame Stamkos for getting paid, but I understand Tampa's position. Ultimately, I don't see a path back into contention for the Bolts if they're paying a declining Stamkos big money. Of course, their chance of bouncing back into contention is thin regardless, but they have a responsibility to try.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

The Preds just added not one but two 40+ goal scorers to their lineup.
3 forwards now with cup rings. Two forwards being former Conn Smythe winners. Not a lot of teams have those credentials

They just added 80 goals to their lineup, that's a significantly improved offense.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Wasn't the rumored offer around 3M x 8? If sufficiently front-loaded, that's not so bad, given his age. Though it's also obvious cap circumvention. And apparently they also offered him shorter deals, that would likely have leveraged the use of 35+ bonuses. If Stamkos finds that insulting, he may need to do some self-examination and figure out why the team that watched him every day for years feel they have a better chance at a Cup without him.

I don't blame Stamkos for getting paid, but I understand Tampa's position. Ultimately, I don't see a path back into contention for the Bolts if they're paying a declining Stamkos big money. Of course, their chance of bouncing back into contention is thin regardless, but they have a responsibility to try.

Not sure if it was 8 years offered to him by Tampa but Stamkos made it public last season that he's looking to get numbers on his next contract. There were rumblings all season that he would likely leave and that Tampa isn't willing to pay him prime dollars at this point of his career. I think Tampa is better off because they got younger with Guentzel and they have added much needed depth by unloading Sergachevs contract to Utah.

 

[triggrman]

They will get exploited by Edmonton’s speed if they faced each other in playoffs.

I'd say with Josi, Carrier, Stastney and Skjei their speed on the back in is more than fine, hell Lauzon isn't slow, only Schenn is and he can be replaced quickly by Fabbro who is also a great skater.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The preds look filthy good next year. I could see them beat anyone in the west next season

Improved yes but behind the Stars, Avs, Oilers, IMO. Knights, Canucks and Jets mix.