GDT: Non-Panthers NFL Discussion part 3: Meet the new season, same as the old season?

[hockeynjune]

So it’s the Chiefs, with Taylor Swift, vs. San Fran in the Super Bowl with Usher as the half time performer.

Most viewed “Big Game“ of all time?

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

The math suggests getting a TD in either situation raises your chances of winning a heck of a lot more than a FG. Especially when you have so many plays to get you a short yardage 1st down and you have a decent defense.

Sure if the coach knew they were going to implode the rest of the way then he may consider a FG in the situation to get points. But you have dominated the opponent so far offensively, defense is doing well, you have short yardage, and would be turning the ball over on the right side of the 30 if you didn’t convert. You should go for that 1st down every time. Going up 21 points would have put there winning chances over 90%. A fg there only increases 5-8 points.

Analytics and math don't win you football games. Momentum is a very real and significant factor in sports and ignored entirely by the math and fancy stats.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Analytics and math don't win you football games. Momentum is a very real and significant factor in sports and ignored entirely by the math and fancy stats.

Scoring TDs is momentum. FGs are a win for both teams and not momentum shifters until the last minute of the game

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Scoring TDs is momentum. FGs are a win for both teams and not momentum shifters until the last minute of the game

Turning the ball over on downs is a huge momentum swing in the opposite direction, which is exactly what happened and was the beginning of the total collapse.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Wanted Detroit to win, but I'm also happy for CMC & Wilkes

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Turning the ball over on downs is a huge momentum swing in the opposite direction, which is exactly what happened and was the beginning of the total collapse.

Yea momentum caused guys to drop passes and fumble the ball away. Good one

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Yea momentum caused guys to drop passes and fumble the ball away. Good one

I mean he's not totally wrong, you see a 3 score lead turn into a 1 score lead in 10 mins that's going to get into your head and you start to "grip the stick a little to tight" if you will. You'd like to think these guys wouldn't let it effect them because they're pros and the best of the best but how many of the Lions had been in that situation before with a chance to go to the Super Bowl?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I mean he's not totally wrong, you see a 3 score lead turn into a 1 score lead in 10 mins that's going to get into your head and you start to "grip the stick a little to tight" if you will. You'd like to think these guys wouldn't let it effect them because they're pros and the best of the best but how many of the Lions had been in that situation before with a chance to go to the Super Bowl?

seeing how the 2nd half went the mistakes happened well before then momentum swung.

in the end, you go for those 1st downs in the 2nd half. Teams have finite amount of possessions left in the game and you want to put the pressure on the other team to score every time. the only reason it takes criticism is in this small chance it didnt work.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

seeing how the 2nd half went the mistakes happened well before then momentum swung.

in the end, you go for those 1st downs in the 2nd half. Teams have finite amount of possessions left in the game and you want to put the pressure on the other team to score every time. the only reason it takes criticism is in this small chance it didnt work.

ALL the mistakes in the 2nd half happened after the shift in momentum due to the Lions failing to convert the 4th down.

50% is a small chance?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

ALL the mistakes in the 2nd half happened after the shift in momentum due to the Lions failing to convert the 4th down.

50% is a small chance?

what is 50%? the chance a 4th down is converted? because that wasnt the likelihood at all. much higher rate of succeeding that failing.

this was from 2014 and the conversion rate was above 60% for plays of 2 yards needing a first down. The percentage has to be higher now with the increase of offense over the last 10 years.

First Down Probability

Abstract In this post I compute the First Down Probability metric, which predicts how likely a drive will produce at least one more first ...

phdfootball.blogspot.com

above a 60% chance to take a game to a very high percentage chance of winning. Yea you do that. especially that early in the 3rd.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Meh, not only don't have a problem with the calls but I like them, even in hindsight. Catch the ball - Reynolds x 2. And Vildor, for that matter, lol.

Classic process oriented vs. results oriented criticism. Didn't work out, doesn't mean it wasn't the right decision. Guys drop passes, it happens.

If they went for the field goal and the kicker missed it, no one would be criticizing the coach, they'd be criticizing the kicker. Welp, both 4th down plays were catchable balls (one was 100% on Reynolds, one was 50% Reynolds 50% Goff, who did miss quite a few throws yesterday). So... it's not like the offense didn't execute. Dude just needed to catch the ball.

It happens. It sucks, but it happens. Sometimes you make a good call and it doesn't work out. Lions convert those 4th downs, everyone's talking about how they stuck it to the 49ers and didn't give them any room to nudge their way back into the game. Aggressive, fearless coaching, emphatically leading a team to a Super Bowl. Didn't go that way. Doesn't change my opinion of Campbell as a coach one bit, dude has been incredible.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I still can't believe Flower's decision to go for the superman dive with no protection with Sneed closing in like he was. He had already let his ego get the better of him to that point, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised. All he had to do was protect it and worst case from there Lamar can jump or run it in. These games always come down to the poor decisions.

 

[HisIceness]

Let's see how wrong I am. Chiefs 19 49ers 15

 

[hockeynjune]

I think it’s a field goal game either way.

 

[Bub]

A close game, decided by 3 or 4 points, and with one or two official's decisions that will drive the losing team's fans to madness. In other words, a fairly typical NFL game. (See also: the previous two Super Bowls.)

 

[Wolfpuck]

Let's see how wrong I am. Chiefs 19 49ers 15

Would that be Scorigami?

 

[HisIceness]

Would that be Scorigami?

https://www.footballdb.com/games/score-lookup.html?scorew=19&scorel=15

It would not crazy enough. Last happened in 1990.

 

[cptjeff]

Dream prediction: CMC scores winning touchdown and tells Tepper to go f*** himself while accepting the Super Bowl MVP.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I am watching the Nickelodeon feed. It's so much better. Plankton just tried to steal Andy Reid's playbook!

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I've never seen a dude pop his achilles just running onto the field from the sideline. Wow, brutal injury

 

[Tryamw]

CMC first TD of the game

 

[WreckingCrew]

CMC first TD of the game

glad to see our boy getting a shot with a real football team

 

[HisIceness]

I am watching the Nickelodeon feed. It's so much better. Plankton just tried to steal Andy Reid's playbook!

Lol

Tony Romo tried to sing Adele. It was terrible, kind of like the Chiefs offense

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Lol

Tony Romo tried to sing Adele. It was terrible, kind of like the Chiefs offense

Yet the chiefs will likely score after half time to tie it and still end up winning. SF had a chance to put pressure on KC and didn’t do it.

 

[HisIceness]

Yet the chiefs will likely score after half time to tie it and still end up winning. SF had a chance to put pressure on KC and didn’t do it.

Well Kyle Shanahan and 2nd half of the Super Bowl aren't exactly a match made in heaven so you might be right