Blue Jays Discussion: No longer the off-season. It's time for real baseball

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Actual career WPA rate bottom-feeders, minimum of 20 career IP for the Jays, normalized as WPA per 200 innings

1) Edwin Jackson (-14.19)
2) Shun Yamaguchi (-10.52)
3) Don Gordon (-10.10)
4) Francisco Cordero (-9.73)
5) John Candelaria (-9.56)
6) Stan Clarke (-8.53)
7) Clayton Andrews (-8.52)
8) Willie Fraser (-8.28)
9) Carlos Almanzar (-8.06)
10) Jeff Byrd (-7.28)
11) Mark Guthrie (-7.06)
12) Chuck Hartenstein (-6.66)
13) Sergio Santos (-6.43)
14) Danny Darwin (-6.37)
15) Jeff Francis (-6.36)
16) Frank Viola (-6.33)
17) Mike Smith (-6.11)
18) Ramon Ortiz (-6.08)
19) Luis Andujar (-5.74)
20) Tanner Roark (-5.62)
21) Mike Nakamura (-5.61)
22) Chien-Ming Wang (-5.48)
23) Steve Davis (-5.37)
24) Cesar Valdez (-5.16)
25) Bill Singer (-5.09)
26) Mark Lemongello (-5.06)
27) Jeff Tam (-5.01)
28) Luke Prokopec (-5.00)
29) Josh Johnson (-4.99)
30) Brad Mills (-4.90)

Dickey is actually somewhere in the middle of the pack on rate. But of course that makes for a less meme-worthy tweet.
 
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Should we do some team predictions for the season? Biggest underachiever of the team? Breakout season? MVP of the team? etc.

Biggest Underachiever: Cavan Biggio, as much fun as it is to make fun of Keith Law, I do worry the change in baseballs will really effect Biggio.

Biggest Overachiever: Vlad Jr is the obvious answer so Danny Jansen. Been a fan since his breakout in 2017, still think he can be a top ten catcher in baseball.

MVP of the team: Vlad Jr

Jays finish 88-74, 2’nd wild card, Kirk wins rookie of the year.
 
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Jays stay in Dunedin extended until at least May 26th.

Ugh. Tampa already derailed the Raptors season, now we gotta play 2 months in that infested shithole (ok, the weather's nice).

Let's get those needles into our boys' arms and bring them home for June.
 
Biggest underachiever - Teoscar Hernandez. Power is legit but I don't think he will make enough contact.
Biggest overachiever - Robbie Ray. Even with his minor setback, I think he will have an excellent year.
MVP - Bichette

Record 85-77 missing out on the 2nd WC by a few games. I think the Jays start slow but pick it up as the year progresses. The most excited I have been for a Jays season since 2013 so hopefully, this season is better than that one!
 
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Actual career WPA rate bottom-feeders, minimum of 20 career IP for the Jays, normalized as WPA per 200 innings

1) Edwin Jackson (-14.19)
2) Shun Yamaguchi (-10.52)
3) Don Gordon (-10.10)
4) Francisco Cordero (-9.73)
5) John Candelaria (-9.56)
6) Stan Clarke (-8.53)
7) Clayton Andrews (-8.52)
8) Willie Fraser (-8.28)
9) Carlos Almanzar (-8.06)
10) Jeff Byrd (-7.28)
11) Mark Guthrie (-7.06)
12) Chuck Hartenstein (-6.66)
13) Sergio Santos (-6.43)
14) Danny Darwin (-6.37)
15) Jeff Francis (-6.36)
16) Frank Viola (-6.33)
17) Mike Smith (-6.11)
18) Ramon Ortiz (-6.08)
19) Luis Andujar (-5.74)
20) Tanner Roark (-5.62)
21) Mike Nakamura (-5.61)
22) Chien-Ming Wang (-5.48)
23) Steve Davis (-5.37)
24) Cesar Valdez (-5.16)
25) Bill Singer (-5.09)
26) Mark Lemongello (-5.06)
27) Jeff Tam (-5.01)
28) Luke Prokopec (-5.00)
29) Josh Johnson (-4.99)
30) Brad Mills (-4.90)

Dickey is actually somewhere in the middle of the pack on rate. But of course that makes for a less meme-worthy tweet.
I was shocked to find out that Jo-Jo Reyes was not on this list (sorry for the profanity in advance, I should know better than to bring that name up around you)
 
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I was shocked to find out that Jo-Jo Reyes was not on this list (sorry for the profanity in advance, I should know better than to bring that name up around you)
What did you just do to Nem? Need to get someone to perform a welfare check now....
 
did people whinge about the 6:30et/3:30pt starts or something? All the slighly earlier starts have been wiped out and replaced with "traditional" 7/4 night games and 1/10 day games.

Guessing they determined the lighting situation was good enough to push games back 30 mins.
 
Man baseball money is getting out of control. 325 million is not enough to play baseball for ten years. Wtf world do these people live in.
 
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I was shocked to find out that Jo-Jo Reyes was not on this list (sorry for the profanity in advance, I should know better than to bring that name up around you)

Hey, I will not have your Jo-Jo slandering in this thread. That man was a treasure, as was his quest to actually win a game in spite of the crippling disability of being not a very good MLB pitcher.

He clocks in at 46th on the list. Shockingly a few spots lower (and thus better) than Jason Grilli. Grilli might be the weird outlier "had a much worse time with the Jays than people remember" guy because we all loved how pumped and excited he was. In the pack a few spots behind Jo-Jo (thereby having had better runs than him, marginally) are the likes of Tanyon Sturtze, Mike Bolsinger, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz, and (the following name is rated TV-MA and may cause severe PTSD)... Kevin Gregg

Also fun is that if you don't control for an IP minimum, the #1 worst pitcher was 1-inning-wonder Ryota Igarashi. and #2 went to Darwin Barney. The shocking name in the top 10 (or bottom 10 if you prefer) was a pre-Tigers Matt Boyd

If you're curious, the top 20 best Jays by WPA/200 are pretty much all relievers, mostly with short-ish 1 season stints with the Jays:

Joe Smith
Ken Giles
Joaquin Benoit
Victor Cruz
Randy Moffitt
Billy Koch (the service time outlier at 211.2 career IP)
Octavio Dotel
Thomas Hatch
AJ Cole
Daniel Hudson
Tom Henke
BJ Ryan
Aquilino Lopez
Rafael Dolis
Taijuan Walker
Shawn Hill
David Price
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Roger Clemens
Jordan Romano

It's obviously worth noting that I believe WPA tends to "favor" relievers in terms of racking up value by the metric because they will come in late and in close games where each action has a much greater potential swing on the chances of a team winning/losing the game.
 
would you rather the player get it or the owner? Because someone is getting that money

My preference would be that owners make less, players make less, and attending baseball games becomes more affordable for families and helps grow the sport... but if it has to be one or the other? Give it to the players every damn time.
 
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My preference would be that owners make less, players make less, and attending baseball games becomes more affordable for families and helps grow the sport... but if it has to be one or the other? Give it to the players every damn time.

MLB Owners:

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MLB Owners & Players:

giphy.gif


fixed that for you. Players aren't taking a shave "for the good of the game" either. Either party talks out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to promoting the idea of growing baseball against the "I'm gonna get mine" attitude of making money.
 
fixed that for you. Players aren't taking a shave "for the good of the game" either. Either party talks out of both sides of their mouth when it comes to promoting the idea of growing baseball against the "I'm gonna get mine" attitude of making money.

Yeah good point, it takes 2 to tango. Though more of it is on the owners for me. No one is forcing the owners to hire GMs to hand out these ridiculous contracts. Players cannot make ridiculous money if it isnt originally offered to them by the owners.

Realistically players arent going to refuse more money, but owners can adjust what they are willing to offer. Free market capitalism is how most owners got rich, and it is why owners lose more of "their" money to the players by the way of other owners outbidding each other.
 
Hey, I will not have your Jo-Jo slandering in this thread. That man was a treasure, as was his quest to actually win a game in spite of the crippling disability of being not a very good MLB pitcher.

He clocks in at 46th on the list. Shockingly a few spots lower (and thus better) than Jason Grilli. Grilli might be the weird outlier "had a much worse time with the Jays than people remember" guy because we all loved how pumped and excited he was. In the pack a few spots behind Jo-Jo (thereby having had better runs than him, marginally) are the likes of Tanyon Sturtze, Mike Bolsinger, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz, and (the following name is rated TV-MA and may cause severe PTSD)... Kevin Gregg

Also fun is that if you don't control for an IP minimum, the #1 worst pitcher was 1-inning-wonder Ryota Igarashi. and #2 went to Darwin Barney. The shocking name in the top 10 (or bottom 10 if you prefer) was a pre-Tigers Matt Boyd

If you're curious, the top 20 best Jays by WPA/200 are pretty much all relievers, mostly with short-ish 1 season stints with the Jays:

Joe Smith
Ken Giles
Joaquin Benoit
Victor Cruz
Randy Moffitt
Billy Koch (the service time outlier at 211.2 career IP)
Octavio Dotel
Thomas Hatch
AJ Cole
Daniel Hudson
Tom Henke
BJ Ryan
Aquilino Lopez
Rafael Dolis
Taijuan Walker
Shawn Hill
David Price
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Roger Clemens
Jordan Romano

It's obviously worth noting that I believe WPA tends to "favor" relievers in terms of racking up value by the metric because they will come in late and in close games where each action has a much greater potential swing on the chances of a team winning/losing the game.
That infamous inning against the Yankees where Grilli gave up 4 homers to the Yankees definitely played a role in his placement. I recall him being relatively solid in 2016 but then the wheels fell off the next season before he was DFA'd and ended up in Texas and had that run-in with Stanton.

As for Jo-Jo, I am not sure how we all made it through that 2011 season. Juan Rivera, Corey Patterson, Jo-Jo, Kyle DraBBek, Jayson Nix, and Jon Rauch all had plenty of playing time and we even got cameos from Briant Tallet and Will Ledezma. What a season that was.
 
Yeah good point, it takes 2 to tango. Though more of it is on the owners for me. No one is forcing the owners to hire GMs to hand out these ridiculous contracts. Players cannot make ridiculous money if it isnt originally offered to them by the owners.

Realistically players arent going to refuse more money, but owners can adjust what they are willing to offer. Free market capitalism is how most owners got rich, and it is why owners lose more of "their" money to the players by the way of other owners outbidding each other.

Problem is that if the owners collectively adjust what they're willing to offer people will scream 'collusion'. And if they don't do it collectively then it only takes one idiot panicking and opening the money vault to put things back where they are. It's free market capitalism but it's a weird version in a closed biome where the franchises operate like competitors in one aspect of the business when the reality is that they are co-existing partner departments (or, as the name suggests, franchises) of an over-arching collective unit. So instead of making financially optimal decisions like a real business, they'll cut off their noses to spite their faces, forking out dumb contracts so that someone else doesn't get a guy and then turning around and realizing that the dumb contract they handed out is going to make it harder for them to operate going forward.

Of course the players do the same thing. They take the biggest deals they can because they're gonna get theirs, but when the org hits its budget ceiling and has to start bleeding pricey talent at other positions to keep themselves on track they act disheartened and offended that the team isn't just throwing more money at the problem and can't fathom how any of this happened while still cashing their sweet, sweet giant novelty paycheques.



I laugh at the concept of Valera "losing" his roster spot. He sucks. He probably shouldn't be here to begin with. And for both of them it comes down to a simple truth: If they wanted to stick around they had to be better. Valera never was and McGuire's brief flirtation with being good was likely the aberration and not anything real.

That infamous inning against the Yankees where Grilli gave up 4 homers to the Yankees definitely played a role in his placement. I recall him being relatively solid in 2016 but then the wheels fell off the next season before he was DFA'd and ended up in Texas and had that run-in with Stanton.

As for Jo-Jo, I am not sure how we all made it through that 2011 season. Juan Rivera, Corey Patterson, Jo-Jo, Kyle DraBBek, Jayson Nix, and Jon Rauch all had plenty of playing time and we even got cameos from Briant Tallet and Will Ledezma. What a season that was.

I actually have some weirdly fond memories of the car-wreck late 00s/early 10s teams.

And as for Grilli:

He had a total WPA of -1.38 in 62.2 career Blue Jays innings

Most of that negative value came from -

September 26, 2016 vs NYY (-0.77):
faced 5 batters, got 1 out, surrendered 4 hits and 4 runs including 2 HR. He entered in the top of the 9th with a 3-2 lead and left with the score 5-3 before Barnes gave up a single that scored the last runner Grilli had left on base.

April 20, 2017 vs Bos (-0.46): faced 6 batters, got 2 out and gave up 3 runs (all earned) on 2 hits and 2 walks, taking a game that was 1-1 in the top of the 10th and leaving it at 4-1 before Danny Barnes came in for the final out and the Jays proceeded to go 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning to lose.

June 23, 2017 @ KCR (-0.79): In his final game with the Blue Jays he came on in the 9th after Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup both failed to close things out. With runners on 1st and 3rd and the score 4-3 Jays he gave up a 2-run double to Whit Merrifield, taking the blown save and the loss.


Shockingly the Yankee 4-HR drubbing outing was only worth -0.07 WPA. It becomes less shocking when you look at the context though, because the Jays were already down 3-0 in the 8th inning when Grilli got lit up. He left at 7-0 but the damage was done before that (and the Jays would go on to lose the game by that 7-0 score without another Jays batter reaching base over the last two innings and only having a collective 3 hits before that point
 
Glad they're playing it safe with Springer. With Grichuk as the 4th outfielder, and Rowdy/Jansen as your other botton end opening day lineup players(who are league average players) there's no reason to take the chance on him making the injury worse. Get back to 100%, we'll be fine for the short term. The pitching worries me more. Zeuch going in the 3rd game against the Yankees is an interesting call.
 
would you rather the player get it or the owner? Because someone is getting that money
Oh trust me I know. They are all getting rich but man the money for athletes and owners for that matter is getting insane.
 
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