Blue Jays Discussion: No longer the off-season. It's time for real baseball

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Joel Payamps SZN is back on folks!


It’s weird they DFA him earlier. Odorizzi signs and a few hours later we add Payamps back.

Wonder if they were in on Odorizzi to the end to only lose out and go and grab Payamps back.
 


Doubt he falls to our pick, but seems to be off to a hot start.

Was high on him last spring but he's out of our range now.

If we want a college arm Sam Bachman looks really good right now and Ryan Cusick's stuff looks good despite the bad numbers. Both have upper 90s stuff and swing and miss sliders. Mason Black as well.

 
It’s weird they DFA him earlier. Odorizzi signs and a few hours later we add Payamps back.

Wonder if they were in on Odorizzi to the end to only lose out and go and grab Payamps back.

A question for those who would know: Is there any limit to the number of times this can happen with a player, or can two teams theoretically keep doing this all season where they could each claim him 10 times? Obviously something to that extreme wouldn't happen, just curious what the rules say.
 
So they really are putting all of their eggs in the Pearson breaks out and Ray/Matz turn it around basket. I find that ridiculous but I guess they know more than me.
I don’t think it’s a bad idea to roll with it for the first 40 games and then evaluate to see if a move is needed. They’ve had talks in the off season. If pitching is a problem I’m sure they’ll come back to one of those teams they talked with.
 
A question for those who would know: Is there any limit to the number of times this can happen with a player, or can two teams theoretically keep doing this all season where they could each claim him 10 times? Obviously something to that extreme wouldn't happen, just curious what the rules say.

Unfortunately no limit. It can happen as many times as a team claims him.
 
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Roark seeks new path to success as Blue Jays pass on Odorizzi opportunity - Sportsnet.ca

TORONTO – Jake Odorizzi represented an opportunity to upgrade the rotation for the Toronto Blue Jays right up until Saturday, when the free-agent righty reached an agreement with the Houston Astros on a two-year contract that includes a player option for a third season.

Between the 30-year-old’s past relationship with manager Charlie Montoyo, his residence near Dunedin, Fla., a track record of success in the American League East and negotiations on a multi-year deal last off-season between the sides, he was certainly available to them.

The financial terms in what sounds like a creative contract weren’t immediately known. But the Blue Jays, confident enough in the stable of arms already in place to pass, remain intent to begin the season with what they have, and examine external adds as season moves along.


The merits of that decision will be judged closely once the bell rings. Pivotal will be how Nate Pearson recovers from a Grade 1 right groin sprain, and whether Tanner Roark recovers from a rough 2020 to become the type of mid-rotation stability post he was signed to be.

His spring debut in Saturday’s 7-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies certainly highlighted some important trends to watch in his build-up to April 1.

The 34-year-old righty’s fastball averaged 89.1 m.p.h. and topped out at 90.7 over his two innings of one-hit work, and while too much can’t be made of a first spring outing, that’s down 1.5 m.p.h. off his average last year, which was down another 1.5 m.p.h. from 2019.

Roark worked out of the stretch and threw exclusively four-seamers against the Phillies as he tries to “find the two-seamer” that was once his bread-and-butter, but “got smoked” last summer when “it wasn't moving as much.”

All of that has him trying to optimize the stuff he has right now – his slider generated four swinging strikes – while simultaneously aiming to recover the some of the lost velocity that may very well be the difference between reliable innings-eating and good hitting.


“Oh yeah, I've worked on a bunch of stuff this off-season just to try to get into my backside a little better,” Roark said of trying to recover some velocity. “I’m still working on it every single day, to get that right delivery down exactly, and get everything fluid. I’m not worried about it. I can still get guys out and I still know how to pitch. Even if it doesn't come back, I’m just going to have to hit my spots and work that much harder. But I have faith in the old arm right here.”

A fair bit will be riding on it, especially with manager Charlie Montoyo saying Pearson played catch at 90 feet Saturday and next steps will be determined based on how he feels Sunday.
 
So they really are putting all of their eggs in the Pearson breaks out and Ray/Matz turn it around basket. I find that ridiculous but I guess they know more than me.

They aren't going with an "all eggs in one basket" approach. This is literally the opposite of that. In fact the idea that they had to go out and go after Odorizzi by any means necessary is more "eggs in one basket" than what the Jays are doing.

They have like a half dozen potential baskets to fill the role that Odorizzi would've occupied, all the while having been pursuing Odorizzi and other FAs (like Walker) within a reasonable budget for their services. The deal he got from Houston is potentially not a good one for the team and it's not surprising that the Jays would've bowed out on it. Odorizzi wasn't going to be a signing that moves the needle at the top of a rotation. He is what he is at this point: a decent 3/4 type who maybe jumps up a bit but is always an implosion risk because of how he always rides that razors edge of outperforming his peripherals. 2019 was an aberration.

So the plan now is pretty clear

1) Ryu
2) Pearson
3) Ray
4 & 5) some combo of Roark, Matz, Stripling, Zeuch, Hatch, Merryweather, Thornton, Kay, and maybe other camp surprises. They have 6+ guys gunning for those last couple spots and just need to really hit on 1 of them (because a #5 starter should be simple waiver wire fodder in terms of acquirability.

and if it all goes spectacularly wrong, there's always the trade market. Throwing whatever money FA guys want at them (or more) just because you feel you have to get something out of the market is a recipe for disaster.

Banking on one of Pearson or Ray rounding into solid/workable #2 form this season was always in the cards for pretty much any way this off-season unfolded short of Trevor Bauer taking the Jays' money (which seemed like a longshot at best while it was all being fought over)
 
They aren't going with an "all eggs in one basket" approach. This is literally the opposite of that. In fact the idea that they had to go out and go after Odorizzi by any means necessary is more "eggs in one basket" than what the Jays are doing.

They have like a half dozen potential baskets to fill the role that Odorizzi would've occupied, all the while having been pursuing Odorizzi and other FAs (like Walker) within a reasonable budget for their services. The deal he got from Houston is potentially not a good one for the team and it's not surprising that the Jays would've bowed out on it. Odorizzi wasn't going to be a signing that moves the needle at the top of a rotation. He is what he is at this point: a decent 3/4 type who maybe jumps up a bit but is always an implosion risk because of how he always rides that razors edge of outperforming his peripherals. 2019 was an aberration.

So the plan now is pretty clear

1) Ryu
2) Pearson
3) Ray
4 & 5) some combo of Roark, Matz, Stripling, Zeuch, Hatch, Merryweather, Thornton, Kay, and maybe other camp surprises. They have 6+ guys gunning for those last couple spots and just need to really hit on 1 of them (because a #5 starter should be simple waiver wire fodder in terms of acquirability.

and if it all goes spectacularly wrong, there's always the trade market. Throwing whatever money FA guys want at them (or more) just because you feel you have to get something out of the market is a recipe for disaster.

Banking on one of Pearson or Ray rounding into solid/workable #2 form this season was always in the cards for pretty much any way this off-season unfolded short of Trevor Bauer taking the Jays' money (which seemed like a longshot at best while it was all being fought over)

Eggs all in the basket of unknowns is what I meant. Everyone is a giant question mark other than Ryu.
 
holy hell is that a list of pending free agent arms next year.

The funny thing is if Bauer opts out then next years free agent group for starting pitching is the exact same next year as it was this year. But next year you have Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander, Grienke, McCullers, and Gausman and Stroman with no QO.

Only Bauer, Odorizzi and Walker got 2 or more years, everyone else got 1 year. So everyone but them is returning to the open market next year.
 
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The funny thing is if Bauer opts out then next years free agent group for starting pitching is the exact same next year as it was this year. But next year you have Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander, Grienke, McCullers, and Gausman and Stroman with no QO.

Only Bauer, Odorizzi and Walker got 2 or more years, everyone else got 1 year. So everyone but them is returning to the open market next year.

you really cant fault management on saving some extra coin around for that

the right guys get tried out this year. see what we got and what we may need.

assess adjust adapt
 
The funny thing is if Bauer opts out then next years free agent group for starting pitching is the exact same next year as it was this year. But next year you have Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander, Grienke, McCullers, and Gausman and Stroman with no QO.

Only Bauer, Odorizzi and Walker got 2 or more years, everyone else got 1 year. So everyone but them is returning to the open market next year.
You forgot Thor
 
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Ranking the top 10 MLB prospects for every American League team
i

Toronto Blue Jays (No. 11 system)
1. Nate Pearson, RHP, 60 FV (14)
2. Austin Martin, 2B, 55 FV (38)
3. Jordan Groshans, 3B, 50 FV (47)
4. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, 50 FV (90)
5. Alejandro Kirk, C, 50 FV (96)
6. Gabriel Moreno, C, 45+ FV (124)
7. Alek Manoah, RHP, 45+ FV (126)
8. Orelvis Martinez, SS, 45+ FV (155)
9. Miguel Hiraldo, 3B, 45 FV
10. Julian Merryweather, RHP, 40+ FV

Top 10 reports

Moreno is a possible multi-positional utility type that's solid behind the plate (but is just an okay framer and would benefit from automated strike-calling) but isn't bulky and can also play the infield like Austin Barnes. He has a chance for average offensive output with the gains he made in 2020 at the alternate site and instructional league. Martinez has big raw tools (plus bat speed, plus raw power, plus arm) befitting a $3.5 million bonus in the 2018 international class. He's only played 40 official pro games and mostly has just shown flashes, but there's above average every-day upside if it all comes together.
Manoah was the 11th overall pick in 2019 out of West Virginia and projects as a 3rd starter or closer. He has an intense demeanor on the mound, sits in the mid-90s, and has a 65-grade slider with a good sense of how and when to use it. His changeup consistency and fastball command need some work and he'll need to keep an eye on his frame, but there's an impact big leaguer of some sort here. Merryweather came over in the Josh Donaldson trade and has a multi-inning future, whether as a starter or reliever. His fastball-changeup combo is plus, but his command and breaking ball point to a possible issue turning over a lineup.
Hiraldo is my breakout pick for the system. He got $750,000 in the 2017 international class due to his bat speed, raw power and potential infield fit. He's still largely the same type of prospect, with a decent shot to stick at third base, and above-average bat speed, bat control, raw power and arm strength. His tendency to chase a bit and continuing to get to his power in games are the question marks, along with only one game of experience in full-season ball. If he continues down this road in 2021 at low-A, he'll enter that top group of the Toronto system.

Others of note

RHP C.J. Van Eyk (11, 40+ FV) has flashed three plus pitches at times in high school and at Florida State, but his command and consistency has been an issue, which is why he lasted until the 42nd overall pick last summer. SS Leonardo Jimenez (15, 40 FV) took a step forward in instructional league, improving his in-game power, adding to his contact-and-defense type profile. RHP Sem Robberse(18) was signed out of the Netherlands (!) in 2019, already increasing his velocity from the mid-80's to the low-90's. He gets a lot of praise for his precocious feel and ability to improve, with flashes of average stuff, projection for more, and enough command to project him as a starter.

SS Otto Lopez (19) draws trade interest as a shortstop with contact skills and some power, the building blocks that every team is looking for. RHP Joey Murray (21) is a data-interested type with great feel to pitch and manipulate his stuff to match the situation. His stuff plays a bit above average so he could fit in a multi-inning relief type role. RHP Trent Palmer (22) was a 3rd rounder out of Jacksonville last summer that was trending up before the shutdown with excellent feel and performance of solid average stuff. C Riley Adams (23) has plus raw power and arm strength, along with decent defensive skills and some upper level performance; a consolation prize of sorts if a team wants but can't get Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno.
 
Interesting they list the top 10, and 7 others of note and still no mention of Kloff. I'm assuming he was somewhere 12-14 between CJVE and Jimenez
 
A question for those who would know: Is there any limit to the number of times this can happen with a player, or can two teams theoretically keep doing this all season where they could each claim him 10 times? Obviously something to that extreme wouldn't happen, just curious what the rules say.

Mlbtr had an article about how Payamps is an elite AAA pitcher but may not have mlb value, making him arguably the most extreme case of a guy you claim to attempt to sneak off the 40 man. That's what Boston and Toronto have been trying to do.
 
I'm not at all upset that we didn't give a 3 year offer to Walker/Odorizzi at those prices. I think not offering Paxton a 1-year deal was the mistake.
While he said all the right things about the Jays Im really of the mindset he didnt want to play in AL East during his reclamation season.

Saying that Who knows for sure what took place....
 
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