My view: I think he’ll be fine into his early-mid 30s. Maybe not $9M fine, but I don’t think NJ will regret the contract as he’ll like still be very good.
Dougie is not a great skater to begin with so he relies on his shot, reach, size, and anticipation/read (particularly offensively) to be effective. If he loses a step, he may have to adapt some, but as he ages, he won’t likely lose the things that make him effective.
the contract doesn’t make sense for Carolina, but makes perfect sense for NJ.
edit: and by “size” I don’t mean in the sense of being overly physical or throwing hits.
Basically this and the contract will likely be dicey at the end but that’s nothing for a UFA signing. They’re typically dicey or outright bad at the start and complete anchors sooner than later.
The Canes weren’t going to pay 9m because they couldn’t with the other defensive contracts they have. It’s a lot for a defenseman. It’s a budgeting decision by a team that’s run by cold hard logic a lot more than most sport franchises. It’s not that perplexing.
All the reported offers don’t matter, if Hamilton would have gone down I’m guessing the Canes might have gone up some and maybe found a way to make it work. But Hamilton for sure needed to go under 8m for that, he didn’t want to and that’s that. And there is a question of term, as Carolina isn’t a team that would give older player a 8 year deal simply to get it done, and leave future cap issues for the future, either.
The Canes are spending 25m on defense without him which is about what teams want to spend there. (Though Gardiner is going on LTIR). They can see what they have in their new RFAs (Bear, ADA) and what they need to pay them, figure out what to do with Gardiner next year, and if they’re going to find other short term guys (like Ian Cole) or go after someone bigger.
It’s pretty bold to be willing to lose his offense when they still have scoring issues but putting a ton of your cap space into defense is trouble. Florida fell into that trap and had a ~30m defense and not much to show for it until Zito remade their defensive core.
It’s not great idea for the Devils but it’s an ok move because he’s an impact player who is worth quite a bit in terms of value. The team needed something and defensemen are often overpaid, so I don’t really care about that.