The correct number is when you hit and you have pieces in many places. The next two drafts are good ones and they come and go in waives. Hughes, Holtz, Hischier, Smith are a good start but I'd go with it for a bit longer yet. Just stock pile them so you limit the holes moving forward.
Look at the Leafs. Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews and then what? The minute you move up, your picks become 15-30 range and you probably consider trading them for short term gains that may or may not work out.
Look at Yzerman. He's going to stay at the bottom for as long as he can IMO.
We’ve been bad enough to pick in the top 10 for a decade.
2011: we were 8th but we won the draft lottery which jumped us to 4th for Larsson.
2012: Cinderella SC run.
2013: Lou trades the 9th pick for Schneider.
2014: What should have been the 10th pick transmogrified into the 30th due to the Kovilchuk contract penalty.
2015: 6th
2016: 11th > traded down to 12th
2017: 5th worst team, win 1OA
2018: 17th
2019: 3rd worst team, win 1OA
2020: 6th worst team, drop to 7th
2021: 3rd worst team, drop to 4th
We’ve been bad for a real long while and can’t sell a fanbase hope forever and you can’t raise your young players in never ending misery factory. Detroit has only been picking in the top 10 since 2017 and Yzerman only got hired in April 2019.
Without getting too much in the weeds here the biggest issue before 2018 was giant black hole that existed instead of offense but after 2018 goaltending became the biggest issue. Crawford was supposed to help solve that and Bernier is really a key signing here.
And while Dougie was a huge signing, the only other additions we made were Tater (on a two year deal) and Bernier (on a two year deal). We traded for Graves, who has two years on his deal left. Some people weirdly keep bringing up Subban’s cap hit like it matters… news flash, he’s a UFA at the end of the year. We have a ton a cap flexibility.
So yeah we made a huge commitment to elite defenseman, but if we didn’t a chunk of that money could easy end up being spent on a cheaper but worse UFA defenseman. It’s a big contact, it be a problem in the future but that’s life.
And the plan is to better. This is a excellent draft with a lot of great RHD, which is exactly what we need, but we weren’t going to tank anyway (who would at this stage?). I very much hope we don’t trade our 1st and we don’t actually have to. Lou immediately went from seller to buyer when he was with the Leafs. Maybe that was Shannaplan thing too but I would grab a RHD with the 1st. Carolina is good example of team that collects assets to keep their prospect pool growing while making trades to be competitive.