How often do we see career 3rd liners have a good season and then get over paid? It happens every year.
Mason Raymond
Foligno
Komarov last year scored 20 goals and is a career 4th liner.
You can point to whatever stat to justify it, but the same arguments are made every time. Sometimes guys over achieve.
Mason Raymond had a 25 goal year playing on a very good Canucks team. He was FIFTH on his team in goals that year. Palmieri led the Devils in goals this year. That is a big distinction in my mind.
Nick Foligno I do have to kind of give you but that is more of an extreme. He was a near PPG pace in 14/15, I don't think anyone really expected him to continue that. No one thinks Palmieri will PPG but I think he has solidified himself as top 6 and scoring 20-30 goals seem more feasible than maintaining PPG.
Komarov I don't really see as a comparable. He was a 20 goal scorer this year so it is too soon to tell if he will keep that up. But he is also four years older, came from the KHL, and played on a weak Leafs team this year. The Devils were competitive most of the season before trailing off at the end with Palmieri being the leading scorer.
I don't expect Palmieri to pot 30 every year but I have a hard time seeing him finishing with less than 20 any year of the deal (barring injury). I'd expect that number to be closer to 25 and wouldn't be surprised to see one year where he hits 30 again.