Value of: Nikolaj Ehlers to the Canucks

[lawrence]

Garland for Ehlers is so lateral to me.

really man? ehlers is a superior offensive player in every aspect.... We tried him with Jt we tried with him Petterson and it didn't really work that well, (granted the sample size was too small) but yea.

or a player that has struggled in the playoffs and doesn't move the needle at all.

this I agree with. Not a fit right now, since we also have Boeser similar player I guess, also Ehlers is a UFA. I don't think these softer players is a profile Tochhet will be interested in. Also no cap room.

 

[strattonius]

really man? ehlers is a superior offensive player in every aspect.... We tried him with Jt we tried with him Petterson and it didn't really work that well, (granted the sample size was too small) but yea.

Uh yeah really.

You're moving off a player that has chemistry and formed arguably the best 3rd line in hockey last year with Garland. The Garland-Blueger-Joshua line was downright dominant.

You're also adding CAP with Ehlers; and you're going move extra assets for that swap as well.

Ehlers is a fine player but in Vancouver's position and what they need this is a lateral move, and arguably it makes the team worse. It would be a stupid decision by management but I get we all have opinions.

 

[Warh1ppy]

Speaking of:

View attachment 894213

View attachment 894214

View attachment 894215

View attachment 894216

View attachment 894217

View attachment 894218

really man? ehlers is a superior offensive player in every aspect....

See post above.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Garland himself never was, it was more so the Canucks were cap-strapped thanks to the OEL contract, so people wanted to weaponize it. Garland himself has value as an excellent forechecker who's extremely strong 5on5. Don't think he's going to get like an A prospect or anything, but he absolutely has positive value.

Wasn’t Garland’s value considered to be in cap dump territory recently? A 2nd doesn’t do much for us.

 

[Drake1588]

At least the OP comes right out and says "ok I'm going to send you a shitty offer" instead of trying to gussy it up some.

Ehlers would be a nice pickup, either today or closer to the deadline. The Jets will do alright if they decide they have to move him. I suspect they'd like to retain his services, though that's going to be his choice as a pending free agent. He could set a price in terms dollars/years that doesn't make sense. I can see him being a risk on the free market for whomsoever signs him.

If they do move him this season, the Jets should get a nice return. Nicer than this. The fact that it's an expiring contract could drive up the return. There's no long-term risk for a guy likely to decline soon (but still really effective today).

 

[Freaky Styley]

Garland is getting seriously underrated in this thread. “Zero worth”? What a joke.

As a trading asset he really doesn't have much worth. He's far more valuable to the Canucks than he'd fetch in a trade.

He clearly works best in a specific situation under Rich Tocchet. Most other seasons he's been a negative asset at his cap hit. He's a fun player and a fan favorite, but GMs just aren't going to give much for a small 3rd line winger making 5M.

Garland is a good player, and he has little trade value. Both can be true.

As for the trade in the OP, it doesn't make much sense from WInnipegs POV. Instead of downgrading to a similar aged winger and a pick they likely move Ehlers for higher-potential futures or something more appealing.

 

[Spargon]

I don't follow the Jets but what happened to Ehlers? During their ELC him and Nylander were neck and neck in points and talent and were pretty much interchangeable. Nylander has clearly taken off but I was surprised to see Ehlers career highs still at 29g 64p from his ELC years.

 

[NYVanfan]

Garland is getting thrown into a lot of deals, and it’s unrealistic as Tocc likes him, and at his cap hit he wont have much value to others in a trade. Ehlers is worth more and will command too much money next summer.
Canucks wouod do better to try and get a guy like Kakko; cheaper, take a chance on breakout

 

[wetcoast]

Canucks would pass. That would leave them with Boeser and Ehlers to decide who to sign as UFA in 2025. Think, they'd opt for Boeser if it came down to them.

Also I would add that this trade might be a good fantasy hockey trade but is Ehlers really any better than Garland straight up in the playoffs?

I haven't seen it and I watch the Jets when I can.

I get that Ehlers is the more dynamic looking player and probably would do better with elite players on the canucks top 6 than Garland but....

I think the Canucks would pass on the playoff question and Ehlers doesn't exactly have a good track record on health.

 

[Phrasing]

I don’t think this deal makes Canucks necessarily better.

 

[Johnsie19]

As a trading asset he really doesn't have much worth. He's far more valuable to the Canucks than he'd fetch in a trade.

He clearly works best in a specific situation under Rich Tocchet. Most other seasons he's been a negative asset at his cap hit. He's a fun player and a fan favorite, but GMs just aren't going to give much for a small 3rd line winger making 5M.

Garland is a good player, and he has little trade value. Both can be true.

As for the trade in the OP, it doesn't make much sense from WInnipegs POV. Instead of downgrading to a similar aged winger and a pick they likely move Ehlers for higher-potential futures or something more appealing.

definitely hasn't been a negative asset against his cap in every other season. He had one bad season when we had like 3 coaches and whole team stunk. Other than that he's punched above his weight in every season.

He definitely has value with his contract which is a bargain and the fact he can drive his own line.

Legitimately Garland and 2nd is getting awfully close to Ehlers value.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Legitimately Garland and 2nd is getting awfully close to Ehlers value.

Maybe in a vacuum but no matter what team Ehlers was getting moved from I don't see any reason for a GM to make that trade. Both players are the same age, one is a legitimate top 6 winger and the other is not. Salaries are not significantly different except that Garland is signed to one more year (which could be seen as a negative or positive depending on the context)

In what scenario does a team trade a player of similar age and contract for a worse version of the player + a 2nd? Perhaps in a video game, but the Jets would sell off Ehlers for a much different (and better) package. This is probably the worst case scenario. They can easily get a 1st+ for Ehlers and use the cap space to sign a similar player to Garland for free.

 

[Johnsie19]

Maybe in a vacuum but no matter what team Ehlers was getting moved from I don't see any reason for a GM to make that trade. Both players are the same age, one is a legitimate top 6 winger and the other is not. Salaries are not significantly different except that Garland is signed to one more year (which could be seen as a negative or positive depending on the context)

In what scenario does a team trade a player of similar age and contract for a worse version of the player + a 2nd? Perhaps in a video game, but the Jets would sell off Ehlers for a much different (and better) package. This is probably the worst case scenario. They can easily get a 1st+ for Ehlers and use the cap space to sign a similar player to Garland for free.

Garland is legitimately a top 6 fwd in terms of ability and output there is no doubt of that. He happens to play on the 3rd line because we go for a balanced attack in Van but he drives the line himself. It'd be like saying Draisaitl is a middle 6 center.

Honest question I've always wondered, how is it that Ehlers only play 15-16 minutes a night with PP. I know he has top 6 talent but that isn't top 6 deployment.

Garland having an extra yr under 5 mil is a huge value.

We could trade Garland for a 1st + at the deadline and sign Ehlers for free too.

It comes down to this though if the Jets have another good season are they going to want to trade a valuable asset like Ehlers for futures? No. This trade would help them get a draft pick and another yr of player who fills a good portion of what Ehlers was. And Garland can play up or down the lineup.

The scenario might not be likely but the value I think is prob a bit more than Garland+ 2nd, maybe another later pick or a prospect.

 

[Buffdog]

Honest question I've always wondered, how is it that Ehlers only play 15-16 minutes a night with PP. I know he has top 6 talent but that isn't top 6 deployment.

We've been through it ad nauseum on the Jets boards. Analytics types claim that Jets coaches are dinosaurs and set in their ways and have a bias against him

Personally I think coaching staff had tasked him with driving the second line vs soft match-ups

The reality is that he gets the same number of 5v5 shifts as Kyle Connor but after going through the shift length data, he just takes shorter shifts (on average 6 seconds less)

 

[Freaky Styley]

Garland is legitimately a top 6 fwd in terms of ability and output there is no doubt of that.

Garland having an extra yr under 5 mil is a huge value.

We could trade Garland for a 1st + at the deadline and sign Ehlers for free too.

I disagree with these 3 statements.

Garland is top 6 probably on the bottom 1/3 teams in the league. No playoff/contending team is playing him there regularly.

Garland's contract might be of value to a team like the Jets who have difficulty attracting talent, but if they are trading Ehlers they probably want that cap space to use on a more attractive FA. It's not negative or positive, it is very team-dependent.

I don't think Garland fetches a 1st in a trade, let alone a +

 

[sting101]

Trading Garland would be dumb. His value in a trade is a fraction of his value driving one of the best 3rd line duos in the NHL.

He's prime aged durable and an absolute steal for his effectiveness
He battles agitates and is a boss defensively. The mismatch he provides and how good he was in this post season should deter anyone from wanting to move him short of an overpayment which we will not get

last 3 yrs

(5v5 pts)
Garland - 119 = 42nd
Ehlers - 111 = 63rd

(Pts p/60)
Garland - 2.28 = 42nd
Ehlers - 2.63 = 9th

Ehlers is a fantastic player and can dominate games. Issue is he sucks at playoff hockey because he's a stick (we already have one in Pettersson) and isn't durable and will want bank. You can bet your ass if he has a big year he will be wanting something close to Nylander money which makes Garlands contract and productivity more valuable. I would rather just keep Garland Ehlers role in Van would not provide good value once he signs his next deal

 

[M2Beezy]

OP offering something ridiculous for the Canucks, Garland was one of their best playoff performers, outperforming his contract, and Canucks gonna give him up PLUS a 2nd for a playoffs disappearing actor. Not a chance Rutherford and Allvin even listen to this offer without laughing their asses off lol

 

[Johnsie19]

I disagree with these 3 statements.

Garland is top 6 probably on the bottom 1/3 teams in the league. No playoff/contending team is playing him there regularly.

Garland's contract might be of value to a team like the Jets who have difficulty attracting talent, but if they are trading Ehlers they probably want that cap space to use on a more attractive FA. It's not negative or positive, it is very team-dependent.

I don't think Garland fetches a 1st in a trade, let alone a +

I mean he was without question the Canucks 4th best forward last yr and the Canucks won their division. He's an above average 2nd line winger. I could share some of the advanced metrics if you havent seen them but they are very strong let me tell you.

Honestly I'd be interested in you backing that opinion up with some substance if you don't mind.

The trade makes sense more if the Jets are in the playoff hunt and don't want to risk losing Ehlers for nothing. Sure it's team dependent but any team in the league wants a player that exceeds their worth in AAV, which Garland does. And in this case he'd be a pretty decent replacement for an outgoing Ehlers.

 

[Johnsie19]

We've been through it ad nauseum on the Jets boards. Analytics types claim that Jets coaches are dinosaurs and set in their ways and have a bias against him

Personally I think coaching staff had tasked him with driving the second line vs soft match-ups

The reality is that he gets the same number of 5v5 shifts as Kyle Connor but after going through the shift length data, he just takes shorter shifts (on average 6 seconds less)

Even for shifts he's 8th on the team amongst fwds.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I mean he was without question the Canucks 4th best forward last yr and the Canucks won their division. He's an above average 2nd line winger. I could share some of the advanced metrics if you havent seen them but they are very strong let me tell you.

Honestly I'd be interested in you backing that opinion up with some substance if you don't mind.

The trade makes sense more if the Jets are in the playoff hunt and don't want to risk losing Ehlers for nothing. Sure it's team dependent but any team in the league wants a player that exceeds their worth in AAV, which Garland does. And in this case he'd be a pretty decent replacement for an outgoing Ehlers.

What substance are you looking for? That Garland isn't a top 6 player?

He was 256th in ice time/g for forwards last year. 256/32 = 8. He probably moves up a few slots because of guys who only played a few games, but those are 3rd line minutes. His career average is 15:09, which would have sandwiched him between Michael Mcleod and Evan Rodrigues. There's a variety of names in that range but most are 3rd line/high end 4th line players.

Bottom line he has never stuck in the top 6 for long or been trusted by his coaching staff in that role. He might have been the '4th most important' forward for the Canucks last year but he's consistently playing against weaker competition than his comrades in the top 6.

I don't mind Garland as a player, I'm not trying to knock him. I'm just making a point that he's far more valuable to the Canucks than he is on the trade market. No GM would give the same value he provides to the team right now, and all things being equal, no team would realistically trade a top 6 winger for him with a 2nd rounder attached. He just isn't what teams pay for

 

[strattonius]

What substance are you looking for? That Garland isn't a top 6 player?

He was 256th in ice time/g for forwards last year. 256/32 = 8. He probably moves up a few slots because of guys who only played a few games, but those are 3rd line minutes. His career average is 15:09, which would have sandwiched him between Michael Mcleod and Evan Rodrigues. There's a variety of names in that range but most are 3rd line/high end 4th line players.

Bottom line he has never stuck in the top 6 for long or been trusted by his coaching staff in that role. He might have been the '4th most important' forward for the Canucks last year but he's consistently playing against weaker competition than his comrades in the top 6.

I don't mind Garland as a player, I'm not trying to knock him. I'm just making a point that he's far more valuable to the Canucks than he is on the trade market. No GM would give the same value he provides to the team right now, and all things being equal, no team would realistically trade a top 6 winger for him with a 2nd rounder attached. He just isn't what teams pay for

Exactly. If Vancouver moved Garland for Ehlers I'm not certain that makes the Canucks any better. Garland completes one of the best 3rd lines in hockey. Why would Vancouver move him for a player that will cost extra assets, a pkayer with a higher CAP, and a player with questionable chemistry in the Canucks line up. It would just be a gamble that makes no sense.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

You had no idea what you’re talking about. His production and underlying metrics are clearly that of a second liner, and he’s playing on the third because he can actually drive a line to impressive results away from a top line center. He’s small but is a buzz saw who is a one man forecheck and was the Canucks best forward against Edmonton. He’s better and cheaper than Mangiapane who just went for a 2nd.

Seems like almost every time Vancouver plays the Wings I'm chuckling and saying, "I love this guy," of Garland. He always impresses as being one of the best players on the ice.

So often when I watch the Jets I'm wondering of Ehlers, "what the hell does this guy have to do to get some top pp time?" Seems he's been blocked for years and just when I expected he'd be there, they start having new guys like Vilardi and Monahan leap frog him. I always think that he is one guy who seems to be a known quantity, but has some serious breakout potential if put in the right situation. He was pretty much fire last season when Connor was injured and he got that high quality ice time.

I really like both players. Would be hard for me to sign off on moving Garland unless there is room for Ehlers on that top pp. Not sure I would want to move Ehlers unless he has made it clear that he wants to move on. I could see him being frustrated with being the odd man out year after year, but I've not heard anything of that.

 

[Flair Hay]

The time for the Jets to deal for Garland was last fall when there was rumours of him being a cap casualty.

Cat is fully out of the bag now, he is like what Perreault was to the Jets when they were at their peak.

 

[Johnsie19]

What substance are you looking for? That Garland isn't a top 6 player?

He was 256th in ice time/g for forwards last year. 256/32 = 8. He probably moves up a few slots because of guys who only played a few games, but those are 3rd line minutes. His career average is 15:09, which would have sandwiched him between Michael Mcleod and Evan Rodrigues. There's a variety of names in that range but most are 3rd line/high end 4th line players.

Bottom line he has never stuck in the top 6 for long or been trusted by his coaching staff in that role. He might have been the '4th most important' forward for the Canucks last year but he's consistently playing against weaker competition than his comrades in the top 6.

I don't mind Garland as a player, I'm not trying to knock him. I'm just making a point that he's far more valuable to the Canucks than he is on the trade market. No GM would give the same value he provides to the team right now, and all things being equal, no team would realistically trade a top 6 winger for him with a 2nd rounder attached. He just isn't what teams pay for

The guy we are talking about trading for in Ehlers is tied for 193/32 = 6.032 So he is also a third liner according to that logic hahah.

He was 122 in points. 122/32 = 3.8. 86th for even strength points 86/32 = 2.6

Dom's model had Garland as a +5 offense and +5 defence. 7.7 mil in output. For reference Ehlers was +8 offense, +2 defence and 7.5 mil in output.

Theyre both basically overproductive middle 6 fwds. Ehlers definitely has more upside the idea of the trade wasn't that the Jets are targeting Garland it's that they get a guy who can replace a lot of what Ehlers does on a cheaper deal and a pick and they don't have to lose Ehlers for nothing in free agency.

He does play against lesser competition on the 3rd line thats true but he also carries his linemates. Drove what was one of the best 3rd lines in hockey on his own. So ya 4th most important fwd and 4th best fwd however you want to slice it.

Even if you don't think he can play up the lineup just put him on the 3rd line and that line is going to be dominant.

 

[bumblebeeman]

The guy we are talking about trading for in Ehlers is tied for 193/32 = 6.032 So he is also a third liner according to that logic hahah.

He was 122 in points. 122/32 = 3.8. 86th for even strength points 86/32 = 2.6

Dom's model had Garland as a +5 offense and +5 defence. 7.7 mil in output. For reference Ehlers was +8 offense, +2 defence and 7.5 mil in output.

Theyre both basically overproductive middle 6 fwds. Ehlers definitely has more upside the idea of the trade wasn't that the Jets are targeting Garland it's that they get a guy who can replace a lot of what Ehlers does on a cheaper deal and a pick and they don't have to lose Ehlers for nothing in free agency.

He does play against lesser competition on the 3rd line thats true but he also carries his linemates. Drove what was one of the best 3rd lines in hockey on his own. So ya 4th most important fwd and 4th best fwd however you want to slice it.

Even if you don't think he can play up the lineup just put him on the 3rd line and that line is going to be dominant.

The Jets already have a dominant 3rd line, they need more top end talent. Ehlers is one of their top 3 forwards, need and could get more in return for sure