Post-Game Talk: NICKY BOBBY FOR THE WIN! | 3-2 Leafs in OT

[stickty111]

That sounds pretty good but how are they doing in the stat that really counts - expected shots?

Only 5 games so things will change but here is breakdown.
Leafs are not giving up many shots but a lot of chances. I expect Leafs to tighten up with more games. Offensively they have been average. A lot of work to do but thats not surprising

 

[Srsly]

It’s interesting that all three of our wins have come with Samsonov between the pipes. That’s not to say I think he’s been lights out and is unstoppable, but we really can’t discount his performance either.

Like I said during the game, Robertson was our best player and looked better than most of our super stars. Hopefully he builds upon this momentum and finds another drive this season.

JT despite being pointless also looked fairly solid tonight. I’ve been somewhat impressed with his start to the season and a little surprised how much hate his contract has been getting given he’s outperformed both Marner and Matthews thus far. I expect this to level out, but it’s really not fair how much he’s been demonized on the board in general. His best days are likely behind him but his contract or captaincy is not our biggest concern (at least for this season)

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Kampf needs two way wingers not offensive wingers

Malgin hasn’t looked terrible defensively to me, idk I still would try it for a couple of games instead of NAK. Or call up someone else, I’m not even a big fan of Malgin lol. But ZAR and NAK IMO is completely not working.

 

[hotpaws]

Not sure what to say.

The Leafs are one of and have been one of the best teams in the league at creating slot and other high danger shots over the last few years.

Shot location is extremely important when scoring goals....duh.

The top 5 team save % in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons:

1. Jackets - Crazy historic that one year against two offensive powerhouses.
2. Canucks - Tricked clueless management(and fans) into thinking the team in front was good.
3. Lightning - Actually backed up by a great team too.
4. Habs - See Canucks as Price wrecked many a superior team's dreams.
5. Islanders - Not quite the same as others but fooled a ton of folks as their flaws emerged.

The fact the Leafs have faced 3 of these guys sucks (at the same time our goalies have rocked an .880 in knockout games) but what you gonna do?

Let's hope the new guys can change our fortunes in net.

then we agree , your stats are based on shot volume/location ,so i don't understand what issue you have with my post

and i'll add , when stats don't factor in the player who's taking the shot and other factors like if they had time and space or say they cam off an odd man rush where the puck is moving from side to side preventing the goalie the time square up t the shooter they become very flawed

i'll put it this way , if i used x/goals in basketball it would say we did a better job defensively if we limited Curry to 3 three's as opposed to giving Draymond Green five 3's from the same location

 

[blue stick]

Exactly, it's the 6 games he played in 2 different seasons that makes him ineligible.

Ya, weird wording for Calder eligibility requirements. I've seen Nick Robertson on a few Calder candidate lists for this season, and even Bunting played 26 NHL games previous to last season (over the 25 game limit) and he was eligible last season. I guess we shall see, I am by no means an authority on this.

 

[Its not your fault]

Robertson making the case to swap Mitch "Grown Man" Marner for a defenceman

Like who's avaliable?

 

[Its not your fault]

then we agree , your stats are based on shot volume/location ,so i don't understand what issue you have with my post

and i'll add , when stats don't factor in the player who's taking the shot and other factors like if they had time and space or say they cam off an odd man rush where the puck is moving from side to side preventing the goalie the time square up t the shooter they become very flawed

i'll put it this way , if i used x/goals in basketball it would say we did a better job defensively if we limited Curry to 3 three's as opposed to giving Draymond Green five 3's from the same location

How much was their time of possession did Curry have an ailment? I think you call that a bad game by Golden State lol.

 

[Menzinger]

then we agree , your stats are based on shot volume/location ,so i don't understand what issue you have with my post

and i'll add , when stats don't factor in the player who's taking the shot and other factors like if they had time and space or say they cam off an odd man rush where the puck is moving from side to side preventing the goalie the time square up t the shooter they become very flawed

i'll put it this way , if i used x/goals in basketball it would say we did a better job defensively if we limited Curry to 3 three's as opposed to giving Draymond Green five 3's from the same location

But we know who's taking the shots......

The teams top offensive players are the ones who by far generate the most shots and also generate the most shots from those high danger areas ie Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Rielly, Tavares, Bunting.

It's not as if the fourth line is inflating those numbers lol

 

[hotpaws]

But we know who's taking the shots......

The teams top offensive players are the ones who by far generate the most shots and also generate the most shots from those high danger areas ie Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Rielly, Tavares, Bunting.

It's not as if the fourth line is inflating those numbers lol

if they do know then it should be factored in which it isn't , also there's a huge difference between a contested and uncontested shot from the same area

what we also know is Mathews will draw much more defensive attention with and without puck than Bunting , is that factored into these stats ?

these stats have there uses but they're very flawed and stat mining to find one that proves absolutely that we're elite in some capacity isn't how they should be used

 

[Zybalto]

then we agree , your stats are based on shot volume/location ,so i don't understand what issue you have with my post

and i'll add , when stats don't factor in the player who's taking the shot and other factors like if they had time and space or say they cam off an odd man rush where the puck is moving from side to side preventing the goalie the time square up t the shooter they become very flawed

i'll put it this way , if i used x/goals in basketball it would say we did a better job defensively if we limited Curry to 3 three's as opposed to giving Draymond Green five 3's from the same location

Part of the problem here is that you have an opinion and are trying to find a way to support it in light of the fact Toronto has highly impressive defensive numbers in every category.

The "player taking the shot" thing is a little silly and if you are giving up prime slot chances against anyone in this league, you are going to get burned.....and the Leafs give up fewer of these shots than most teams.

Jfresh tried to figure out which teams were most successful when it came to rush goals for the 2020-2021 season and, using the data from evolving hockey, came up with a decent method, including how well a team prevents rush goals.


He defined a rush goal as being a goal that consisted of a controlled entry (tracked by stats guys) followed by a goal scored by that team in a time frame of 5 seconds or less, without being given away to the other team during that time frame. Not a bad way to track them actually.

For that season, here are the fewest rush goals given up in the NHL:

I'd be interested to see how the Flames rebounded after Sutter came on board.

Goaltending remains the issue no matter how you want it not to be so and Samsonov looks pretty great so far despite Murray getting banged up.

Moving on from Campbell looks like the right move so far too as our solid D might have been carrying him much of the time to his all star numbers. I still think he;s a solid keeper, just not the right move for us at that price/term.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Nice game by Kerfoot. He used his speed to really good effect.

 

[Kelly]

Nicky Bobby was shaking and baking last night.

I wanna see him with Matthews and Marner, give those two another shooting option, and maybe make some more space for 34.

HANTA YO

 

[cyris]

Nicky Bobby was shaking and baking last night.

I wanna see him with Matthews and Marner, give those two another shooting option, and maybe make some more space for 34.

HANTA YO

I’d be willing to try it. I think a good coach explores all his options.
That said I prefer the 3rd guy on that line he someone who is good at going in the corners and getting the puck to Marner or Matthews and I really don’t think that is Robertson’s game.

 

[Gabriel426]

I'm not saying they are playing to their peak yet and look rusty out there but, outside of the 4th line, they have been far better than most are saying.

Give it a month as we sort out the lineup (like last season) and we will see what we have.

Goaltending and 4th line are the big worries IMO. Hope Murray gets healthy soon.

Nobody is saying the team is crap. What most here were saying, the team didn’t play well in those games.
Yokes is literally a whole bunch of players playing for their contracts and the Habs played FOUR Dman who never played in the NHL and none of them is the second coming of Makar, Josi, Hedman or even Dahlin.
When you used the word Outplaying and still ended up with a L, the other goalie better made 50 saves or else you really should not use that word. The Leafs got 13 or 14 shots in two periods against the Yokes. Either the Yokes played great D or the Leafs just simply played bad. I doubt the Yokes played great D.
Also, I don’t think goaltending is an issue in any of those games. Sammy is playing well. Murray did well despite his glove hand and Kally didn’t had any help in front of him.
Don’t understand why you have to keep defending the top guys when it is quite clear that they ain’t pulling their weight so far this season.
For example: AM was amazing last year and scored 51 goals in 50 games. But he did only managed to score 9 goals in the remaining 23 games. I know he was playing hurt or was recovering in those games but statistically he just wasn’t that good in those 23 games. Thus, if some of us said he didn’t play well in the post game thread in one of those 23 games where he didn’t score, didn’t dominate and didn’t help the Leafs with a W, you can’t say that person is wrong.
Just stating player X is struggling or played a bad game doesn’t mean saying he is a terrible player or he sucks or this and that. Players can’t be dominated 82 games of the season, they will have ups and downs but top guys should have more ups and less downs than depth players or else they really should not be paid as much. Top guys are held at a higher standard than the rest of the team and when they are not helping the team win, they deserve more criticisms bc they are TOP guys.

 

[Lightsol]

for all those who continuously promote the need for the leafs to eliminate Simmonds, Clifford, and Curtis Douglas ... you don't have a clue.
Funny how Tampa, NYR, Bost, St.L, Cal, and Col. all have heavyweights on their teams.
If you think for one moment that the difference between the Leafs winning the Stanley cup or not is having engval on Malgin on the team ... lol you are a joke.
Watch as the oops take liberties with the leaf's talent and someone tries to answer the bell and gets hurt (hello Brodie, Reilly, etc). And if they do manage to hurt a marner, AM JT or Niles (Nylander reminds me of Niles Crane on Fraser) it is going to be "why doesn't the NHL protect these guys better .. you can't count on the NHL except to f*** things up..
Last night the stars were finishing their checks with lots of enthusiasm but there wasn't a response from the leafs ... but that is good isn't it lol? Helps build character and injury time to help Dubas correct his mistakes.
There isn't a damn thing that anyone from Simmonds, Clifford, and Douglas (this guy is scary ... Chara and boogieman scary) couldn't do that would need a magpie or an engval.
Even better ... ask the team if they would love to have those players playing instead of the puffs.
Bet my last dollar anyone short of magpies mom would vote for the insertion of the 3 amigos together or separately for many games.

JMHO.

When did everyone start promoting the feminist perspective that bob McGowan always promoted ... you know, eliminate all the fighting and the hitting (read some of the studies trying to promote a game of less physical contact)to make the game faster and more inclusionary (can't believe I found a place to use that stupid stupid word lol). Got to make a place for the women to play in the league lol.

Apparently you missed that both Clifford and Simmonds are shells of the players they were and you ain't actually GETTING any toughness out of either of them. For all the grousing about the three-name guys, at least they hit; Simmonds doesn't really even do that much anymore. And we don't know if Clifford can still hit, because he's too slow to catch anybody for a hit anyway.

 

[ACC1224]

Robertson looked

Robertson making the case to swap Mitch "Grown Man" Marner for a defenceman

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[hotpaws]

Part of the problem here is that you have an opinion and are trying to find a way to support it in light of the fact Toronto has highly impressive defensive numbers in every category.

The "player taking the shot" thing is a little silly and if you are giving up prime slot chances against anyone in this league, you are going to get burned.....and the Leafs give up fewer of these shots than most teams.

Jfresh tried to figure out which teams were most successful when it came to rush goals for the 2020-2021 season and, using the data from evolving hockey, came up with a decent method, including how well a team prevents rush goals.


He defined a rush goal as being a goal that consisted of a controlled entry (tracked by stats guys) followed by a goal scored by that team in a time frame of 5 seconds or less, without being given away to the other team during that time frame. Not a bad way to track them actually.

For that season, here are the fewest rush goals given up in the NHL:

I'd be interested to see how the Flames rebounded after Sutter came on board.

Goaltending remains the issue no matter how you want it not to be so and Samsonov looks pretty great so far despite Murray getting banged up.

Moving on from Campbell looks like the right move so far too as our solid D might have been carrying him much of the time to his all star numbers. I still think he;s a solid keeper, just not the right move for us at that price/term.

My opinion is we're good at spamming shots , which is true .

your the one with an agenda here which you just proved by arguing a point i wasn't trying to make since you switched my point which was basically saying a well executed odd man rush has a higher chance of going in than multiple contested shots from a high danger area , this you switched to rush chances which could or could not be an odd man rush and which also doesn't distinguish between say a 2 on 1 or 4 on 3 which are completely different scenario's

and you know what's a little more than "silly" , saying who the shooter is doesn't factor in the % chance a goal is scored

the problem with using these shot volume/location stats is most teams that actually give up fewer goals

-will not have their D constantly pinching to keep possession since they want to limit losing that puck race so they don't give up an odd man
-will give up possession by clogging prime scoring areas to keep the play outside as well as not to give up uncontested shots in high danger areas
-will focus on who the prime scoring threats are like say Mathews as opposed to Bunting

now using this type of system may or may not decrease their xG but does decrease there actual goals if everything else is equal

and at the end of the day while these stats may be fun for those who like them on the internet . a NHL team with the resources the Leafs have don't need to rely on flawed shot location/volume stats when they could more effectively have there stats guys break down every game frame by frame which would be much more accurate on how there team performed offensively/defensively

I never even mentioned goaltending which is always some Leafs fans go to as to why we haven't advanced but if it makes you feel better then you can keep blaming whoever is between the pipes as the reason why we keep getting knocked out early .

 

[saffronleaf]

There were definitely a few minutes where that seemed to be the case. But I think if we were to all rewatch the game, the leafs were the better team for far more of it than they weren't.

Moneypuck supports what you're saying.

MoneyPuck.com

Real Time Hockey Win Probabilities In Game

www.moneypuck.com

78 to twentytwo in favor of the leafs.

sorry the two key isn't working.

 

[Zybalto]

My opinion is we're good at spamming shots , which is true .

your the one with an agenda here which you just proved by arguing a point i wasn't trying to make since you switched my point which was basically saying a well executed odd man rush has a higher chance of going in than multiple contested shots from a high danger area , this you switched to rush chances which could or could not be an odd man rush and which also doesn't distinguish between say a 2 on 1 or 4 on 3 which are completely different scenario's

and you know what's a little more than "silly" , saying who the shooter is doesn't factor in the % chance a goal is scored

the problem with using these shot volume/location stats is most teams that actually give up fewer goals

-will not have their D constantly pinching to keep possession since they want to limit losing that puck race so they don't give up an odd man
-will give up possession by clogging prime scoring areas to keep the play outside as well as not to give up uncontested shots in high danger areas
-will focus on who the prime scoring threats are like say Mathews as opposed to Bunting

now using this type of system may or may not decrease their xG but does decrease there actual goals if everything else is equal

and at the end of the day while these stats may be fun for those who like them on the internet . a NHL team with the resources the Leafs have don't need to rely on flawed shot location/volume stats when they could more effectively have there stats guys break down every game frame by frame which would be much more accurate on how there team performed offensively/defensively

I never even mentioned goaltending which is always some Leafs fans go to as to why we haven't advanced but if it makes you feel better then you can keep blaming whoever is between the pipes as the reason why we keep getting knocked out early .

Actually, when you look at the types of shots the Leafs produced the previous 3 years, the Leafs are the exact opposite. Maybe the best team in the league at not spamming shots.

Total shots for/60: 6th in the NHL
Low danger shots on net/60: 23rd in the NHL
Medium Danger Shots/60: 1st in the NHL
High Danger shots/60: 1st in the NHL

The numbers say you are not just incorrect but so wrong id devalues everything else you are trying to put forth.

As far as goaltending goes, the Leafs only had one competent goalkeeper the last 3 seasons who remained relatively healthy over a long stretch the last 3 seasons and that was Jack Campbell from the time we picked him up to mid-January last year when it is suspected he took that rib injury and disastrously tried to play through it before succumbing to the DL. (his injury issues the end of last season have been made public)

From the time of that trade Feb. 6th 2020 to January 14th, 2022, here are the top goalkeepers in hockey with more than 30 games played:

1. Saros: .930
2. Campbell: .928
3. Shesterkin: .927
4. Vasy: .923
5. Varlamov: .922

Now did the previously unheralded Campbell rank as the 2nd best goalie in hockey over that stretch because he is the next coming of Hasek or was he the beneficiary of a great defensive system that covered his flaws and allowed him to be successful (until he took that injury)?

He's healthy now and on a fat contract so lets see how well he does in the Oilers system as a comparison right?

..oh and .880 in knockout games for our goaltenders the last 3 years so, yea, I'll blame the keepers all I want.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Who was the poster saying Robertson wasn't ready and was trending towards bust territory after 1 period of the 1st prospects game this year? Show yourself.

Lol not even just one period. One play!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Malgin hasn’t looked terrible defensively to me, idk I still would try it for a couple of games instead of NAK. Or call up someone else, I’m not even a big fan of Malgin lol. But ZAR and NAK IMO is completely not working.

You probably get more out of him on the 3rd line rather than straight replacing NAK or ZAR on the 4th line. 3rd line is more of a two-way line which needs to be effective at both ends of the ice.

 

[KPower]

Anyone else think the title read “Nicky Bobby Orr for the win? Yes I know it makes no sense lol

 

[hotpaws]

Actually, when you look at the types of shots the Leafs produced the previous 3 years, the Leafs are the exact opposite. Maybe the best team in the league at not spamming shots.

Total shots for/60: 6th in the NHL
Low danger shots on net/60: 23rd in the NHL
Medium Danger Shots/60: 1st in the NHL
High Danger shots/60: 1st in the NHL

The numbers say you are not just incorrect but so wrong id devalues everything else you are trying to put forth.

As far as goaltending goes, the Leafs only had one competent goalkeeper the last 3 seasons who remained relatively healthy over a long stretch the last 3 seasons and that was Jack Campbell from the time we picked him up to mid-January last year when it is suspected he took that rib injury and disastrously tried to play through it before succumbing to the DL. (his injury issues the end of last season have been made public)

From the time of that trade Feb. 6th 2020 to January 14th, 2022, here are the top goalkeepers in hockey with more than 30 games played:

1. Saros: .930
2. Campbell: .928
3. Shesterkin: .927
4. Vasy: .923
5. Varlamov: .922

Now did the previously unheralded Campbell rank as the 2nd best goalie in hockey over that stretch because he is the next coming of Hasek or was he the beneficiary of a great defensive system that covered his flaws and allowed him to be successful (until he took that injury)?

He's healthy now and on a fat contract so lets see how well he does in the Oilers system as a comparison right?

..oh and .880 in knockout games for our goaltenders the last 3 years so, yea, I'll blame the keepers all I want.

so 6th in the NHL in total shots , thanks for proving my point about spamming shots

you see i don't give a damn about shot volume/location stats since there flawed as i and many others have shown , there's a much better way to evaluate our systems/players like using our very large analytics staff to break down the tape so the coach's/gm could accurately judge what is and what isn't an actual high def scoring chance among other things so that way they could make an accurate assessment

that's how i would use the resources available , Dubie might be tying up their time doing workshops on dealing with their feelings or something along those liens

and you can continue to blame the goalies if you like but at the end of the day if the team fails again for whatever reason it won't save your boi's jobs

 

[Zybalto]

so 6th in the NHL in total shots , thanks for proving my point about spamming shots

you see i don't give a damn about shot volume/location stats since there flawed as i and many others have shown , there's a much better way to evaluate our systems/players like using our very large analytics staff to break down the tape so the coach's/gm could accurately judge what is and what isn't an actual high def scoring chance among other things so that way they could make an accurate assessment

that's how i would use the resources available , Dubie might be tying up their time doing workshops on dealing with their feelings or something along those liens

and you can continue to blame the goalies if you like but at the end of the day if the team fails again for whatever reason it won't save your boi's jobs

Yup, 6th in total shots. If we're not carefull, we could end up like like number 1 and 2, the Panthers and Avalanche. I mean, who wants to have the best record in hockey or win a cup right?

...and looking deeper into teams that spam shots in the sense they like to throw low quality shots at the net, Colorado is perhaps the posterboy for this type of play. 2nd in overall shots, 2nd for low danger shots but only 11th for high danger.

Perhaps you are in denial of your shot spamming love. Get outta the closet.

....and I don't need to force blame on the goalies. Their brutal play is there to watch again and awful numbers are there to look up.

 

[hotpaws]

Yup, 6th in total shots. If we're not carefull, we could end up like like number 1 and 2, the Panthers and Avalanche. I mean, who wants to have the best record in hockey or win a cup right?

...and looking deeper into teams that spam shots in the sense they like to throw low quality shots at the net, Colorado is perhaps the posterboy for this type of play. 2nd in overall shots, 2nd for low danger shots but only 11th for high danger.

Perhaps you are in denial of your shot spamming love. Get outta the closet.

....and I don't need to force blame on the goalies. Their brutal play is there to watch again and awful numbers are there to look up.

and as i said , you can keep blaming the goalie all you like because one more early loss and your buddy Dubie will be out he door

hell , judging by how wound up him and Keefe are already , Shanny might be looking to replace one or both much sooner