Carolina is not even that physical of a team? They are a stingy defensive team with good depth and speed throughout their lineup, but they are not going to dominate the Leafs physically. If anything, I am more concerned with having guys like Ritchie, Simmonds, Spezza, Muzzin, and Holl in the lineup because the Canes will just blow right past them. We also won't have to worry about them until the Conference Finals, if we both get there, since I doubt either of us are going to be WC teams this year.
With Florida, you need to be able to shut down two guys: Barkov and Huberdeau. They were only 7-5-0 with Barkov out of the lineup. Their depth is excellent when those two guys are humming... But Bennett/Duclair/Reinhart/Verhaeghe/Lundell lose a lot of their effectiveness when those guys are not humming. Bobrovsky has always been up and down in Florida, and while their defense has a great Ekblad-Weegar combo, the rest of their defense is worse than ours. Massive props for their 10-0-1 start, but they have been 12-7-3 the rest of the way (and that is with the 4 game winning streak they are on right now). Also keep in mind that Florida only has one guy over 50% in the dot (Barkov with 54.6%) whereas the Leafs have the best faceoff percentage in the league. It is hard for their game to click against a team like ours when they can't even win draws, and that is against teams that are worse than we are in the dot.