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League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - 2022-23 season, Vol. 4, Off-season Edition

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This was at the time of the trade.

Sure would be nice to have him next to Carlson right about now. If they're lucky Fehervary will become as good as Siegenthaler is now.
 
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Ridley Simon said:
Or we can also appreciate how well the Caps draft and stop crapping on their non 1st round draft choices
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What?

I wish we didn't give Siegenthaler away... I don't what you're talking about.

Empty Goal Net said:
Some interesting takes here, many from current posters, when he was moved (a mere 15 months ago). I think it was Tex who said this was the cost of having Chara.
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A cost we didn't even have to pay. We had no problem shipping Orlov back into the minors for a time.
 
um said:
What?

I wish we didn't give Siegenthaler away... I don't what you're talking about.


A cost we didn't even have to pay. We had no problem shipping Orlov back into the minors for a time.
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Well, I’d assume you’ve seen the cadre of posters who state that the Caps can’t draft beyond first rounders. You’ve read them, yes?

And now we have a cadre of posters that are upset that we’ve “given away” players that were later round picks (beyond first) and the team would be better with those players.

So which is it?

Perhaps you aren’t one that rails against both. However —- many many do
 
twabby said:


This was at the time of the trade.

Sure would be nice to have him next to Carlson right about now. If they're lucky Fehervary will become as good as Siegenthaler is now.
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I agree with you in both the return not being enough and Siegenthaler fitting well in a partial position of need, but at the time they had Orlov and Dillon (though there is another argument as to why they re-signed Dillon when they already had Siegs, but that's beyond the scope of this specific post), and they chose the two birds in a bush (Fehervary and Alexeyev) over the bird in hand (Siegenthaler). Jonas showed all the signs of being a good #4 before and after the trade, but it was clear that that was what he was going to top out as, nothing more. Indeed, his contract now basically reflects that, paying him as a #4, even if he might play on a top pairing.

On the margins, how much better would last year's Caps team have been with Siegenthaler on the left instead of Fehervary or TvR? According to models, maybe like a half-win, at most. (There's another argument that having Siegenthaler could have theoretically pushed TvR to 3RD, moving out Schultz and freeing up his 4m, but again beyond the scope of this post.) Teams with good pro scouts like the Capitals can find those bargains, like Connolly, Dowd, Kempny, TvR, and this year's version, Gustafsson. So if Siegenthaler's upside is capped, and his expected value can be replaced by similarly-salaried players, then Mac has an incentive to swing for upside.

It is a bit curious here that you are arguing for the certainty of Siegenthaler, where in other contexts you have been allin in favor of upside. I agree with you that as our best players continue to age, the Caps should be more inclined to take a riskier approach to team-building to attempt to keep their window open. That's why, even though I recognized Siegenthaler was likely to be a good #4, I understood why Mac chose Fehervary/Alexeyev over him - having Siegenthaler as your #4 doesn't do anything to change your Cup odds, while having Fehervary/Alexeyev provide top pairing results on ELCs do, if unlikely.
 
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Thomas Drance of the Athletic reporting Kadri to NYI done, waiting for them to clear cap.

That's what i assumed because it's too silent to be anyone other than Lou.

Hopefully they give up high pick to move salary and give Kadri full 7 years.
 
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Vilica said:
I agree with you in both the return not being enough and Siegenthaler fitting well in a partial position of need, but at the time they had Orlov and Dillon (though there is another argument as to why they re-signed Dillon when they already had Siegs, but that's beyond the scope of this specific post), and they chose the two birds in a bush (Fehervary and Alexeyev) over the bird in hand (Siegenthaler). Jonas showed all the signs of being a good #4 before and after the trade, but it was clear that that was what he was going to top out as, nothing more. Indeed, his contract now basically reflects that, paying him as a #4, even if he might play on a top pairing.

On the margins, how much better would last year's Caps team have been with Siegenthaler on the left instead of Fehervary or TvR? According to models, maybe like a half-win, at most. (There's another argument that having Siegenthaler could have theoretically pushed TvR to 3RD, moving out Schultz and freeing up his 4m, but again beyond the scope of this post.) Teams with good pro scouts like the Capitals can find those bargains, like Connolly, Dowd, Kempny, TvR, and this year's version, Gustafsson. So if Siegenthaler's upside is capped, and his expected value can be replaced by similarly-salaried players, then Mac has an incentive to swing for upside.

It is a bit curious here that you are arguing for the certainty of Siegenthaler, where in other contexts you have been allin in favor of upside. I agree with you that as our best players continue to age, the Caps should be more inclined to take a riskier approach to team-building to attempt to keep their window open. That's why, even though I recognized Siegenthaler was likely to be a good #4, I understood why Mac chose Fehervary/Alexeyev over him - having Siegenthaler as your #4 doesn't do anything to change your Cup odds, while having Fehervary/Alexeyev provide top pairing results on ELCs do, if unlikely.
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I don't agree that Siegenthaler is a #4 and that's what he tops out as. Indeed last year he had the most 5v5 TOI of any Devil on a per game basis, and he did very well in those minutes. He's a top pairing matchup defender at even strength and one of the best penalty killers in the league. He doesn't have the offensive game to be a high-end #1 type guy, but he statistically he is one of the best overall defensive players in the game. He's like Karl Alzner in his prime, only significantly better. That's not a limited upside at all. He'll never be Cale Makar, but he very well could be Chris Tanev or Niklas "Super Nintendo" Hjalmarsson if he isn't there already.

I don't really want to get into the weeds with what I thought of Fehervary last year, but if you're looking just at WAR differential between the two they were 3.0 wins apart in 2021-22 according to Evolving Hockey. Far more than just half a win. That is a huge gulf for a single player replacement, considering players like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are estimated at ~5 WAR individually. Among all defensemen last year, there were only 17 players with a higher WAR than Siegenthaler. So yeah, I couldn't disagree more that Siegenthaler is limited. It's just much harder to see defensive upside than offensive upside since there isn't an NHL.com leaderboard for "Defense" like there is for "Points".

I also don't have confidence that Gustafsson is the guy to move the needle at all given his past performance. The past 3 seasons he's been right around replacement level. I suspect Gustafsson is going to be closer to Justin Schultz than Trevor van Riemsdyk, though at least they didn't pay a premium for Gustafsson.
 
Ridley Simon said:
Well, I’d assume you’ve seen the cadre of posters who state that the Caps can’t draft beyond first rounders. You’ve read them, yes?

And now we have a cadre of posters that are upset that we’ve “given away” players that were later round picks (beyond first) and the team would be better with those players.

So which is it?

Perhaps you aren’t one that rails against both. However —- many many do
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I see.

Ya I’d say the Caps draft pretty well, it’s how we’ve missed the playoffs once since 07-08.
 
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twabby said:
I don't agree that Siegenthaler is a #4 and that's what he tops out as. Indeed last year he had the most 5v5 TOI of any Devil on a per game basis, and he did very well in those minutes. He's a top pairing matchup defender at even strength and one of the best penalty killers in the league. He doesn't have the offensive game to be a high-end #1 type guy, but he statistically he is one of the best overall defensive players in the game. He's like Karl Alzner in his prime, only significantly better. That's not a limited upside at all. He'll never be Cale Makar, but he very well could be Chris Tanev or Niklas "Super Nintendo" Hjalmarsson if he isn't there already.

I don't really want to get into the weeds with what I thought of Fehervary last year, but if you're looking just at WAR differential between the two they were 3.0 wins apart in 2021-22 according to Evolving Hockey. Far more than just half a win. That is a huge gulf for a single player replacement, considering players like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are estimated at ~5 WAR individually. Among all defensemen last year, there were only 17 players with a higher WAR than Siegenthaler. So yeah, I couldn't disagree more that Siegenthaler is limited. It's just much harder to see defensive upside than offensive upside since there isn't an NHL.com leaderboard for "Defense" like there is for "Points".

I also don't have confidence that Gustafsson is the guy to move the needle at all given his past performance. The past 3 seasons he's been right around replacement level. I suspect Gustafsson is going to be closer to Justin Schultz than Trevor van Riemsdyk, though at least they didn't pay a premium for Gustafsson.
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Defensively, Siegenthaler will get all the time in the world. PK is obvious too.

But the reason he got the contract he did is likely because the team foresees him being our 4th best dman... and its probably very very likely that ends up the case.

Devils have Dougie Hamilton already with Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec joining the team by years end (NCAA and AHL). So even if Siegenthaler is the best dman in our own zone, his total minutes will likely be fourth in a year or twos time. ES minutes he prob stays top-3 over Dougie long-term.
 
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I don't consider Fever offensively gifted as true top def, but he has tools to compensate for that which helps him in OZ.

siege is miles behind him offensively, since when he's top4 Def?
 
Fever is better at nearly every physical attribute. He’s a better skater, has better puck handling skills, is a better shooter, has more quickness, transitions from defense to offense and vice versa more effectively, and is generally just a more dynamic athlete. He and Siegs are the same height but Siegs is a thick dude which allows him to be a bit stronger in corners and in front of the net which is not nothing.

That said, physical tools don’t determine alone how successful someone will be. Siegs has a role and is playing it very well. There is a need for guys like Siegenthaler who can eat pucks and make life miserable for opposing forwards. I like Fever’s upside more and think he has a much higher ceiling but wouldn’t surprise me if Siegs has the better career because he doesn’t need to develop any more of his offensive game in order to be successful while Fever needs to both step it up defensively and continue to show progress offensively.
 
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Its the price of the salary cap. We could never keep VV and Siegs at 7+ mill. And I dont think having those 2 makes this team any better

Backup goalies and 6/7 D men need to be on rookie contracts
 
AlexBrovechkin8 said:
Fever is better at nearly every physical attribute. He’s a better skater, has better puck handling skills, is a better shooter, has more quickness, transitions from defense to offense and vice versa more effectively, and is generally just a more dynamic athlete. He and Siegs are the same height but Siegs is a thick dude which allows him to be a bit stronger in corners and in front of the net which is not nothing.

That said, physical tools don’t determine alone how successful someone will be. Siegs has a role and is playing it very well. There is a need for guys like Siegenthaler who can eat pucks and make life miserable for opposing forwards. I like Fever’s upside more and think he has a much higher ceiling but wouldn’t surprise me if Siegs has the better career because he doesn’t need to develop any more of his offensive game in order to be successful while Fever needs to both step it up defensively and continue to show progress offensively.
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I would love a shutdown pair of Fever and Siegs where Siegs just eats pucks and hangs out in the crease/corners whilst Fever moves around and chases the puck/opposing players around.
 
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