News Article: NHL Front Office Confidence Rankings (Leafs 30th)

[notbias]

The truth is, we lucked out and hit gold on 3 picks. How we managed them afterwards was awful. We didn’t build a winning team and culture. We overpaid these 3(+1 UFA) very heavily and never built a real contender. Once these 3 are aged out, our “success” won’t continue. Not like Boston where they rebuild without tanking and still maintain a winning team/culture.

Are we back to thinking the 3 players are studs now?

It always changes between playoff duds and studs depending on if we are hating on Dubas and praising Lou or not.

 

[thewave]

Are we back to thinking the 3 players are studs now?

It always changes between playoff duds and studs depending on if we are hating on Dubas and praising Lou or not.

Isnt it just the same?

Matthews is paid like the best goal scorer in the world.

Nylander is an overpaid winger now

Marner is an overpaid winger that lacks presence in a physical playoff series.

JT is old.

Front Office sucks. BT may still be ok though. Shanny should be gone.

 

[ULF_55]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1820855876569206801

Saw a video of this report being reviewed and they suggested a bunch of Leafs haters voted.

Pretty much said, how can a team that is always in the playoffs be worse than teams that are never in the playoffs?

Any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion, if they exclude the crazies.

 

[notbias]

Saw a video of this report being reviewed and they suggested a bunch of Leafs haters voted.

Pretty much said, how can a team that is always in the playoffs be worse than teams that are never in the playoffs?

Any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion, if they exclude the crazies.

Confidence in management should reflect how you think the team will progress, not how they currently are.

For example, Utah is way too high, but I'd have a lot more faith in their team than last year even though they sucked, I think their future is bright now.

I don't think the rankings are crazy, although it is hard to rate the teams that are tanking vs the teams going for it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Saw a video of this report being reviewed and they suggested a bunch of Leafs haters voted.

Pretty much said, how can a team that is always in the playoffs be worse than teams that are never in the playoffs?

Any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion, if they exclude the crazies.

Well then you didn’t read the article, and make a judgment on facts.

The “hater” votes were 2.5% of votes, the rest were fans of their own team voting.

FYI, the hater votes gave leaf management a higher ranking than leaf fans did, now what?

 

[ACC1224]

Well then you didn’t read the article, and make a judgment on facts.

The “hater” votes were 2.5% of votes, the rest were fans of their own team voting.

FYI, the hater votes gave leaf management a higher ranking than leaf fans did, now what?

How did they know who was who?

 

[ULF_55]

Confidence in management should reflect how you think the team will progress, not how they currently are.

For example, Utah is way too high, but I'd have a lot more faith in their team than last year even though they sucked, I think their future is bright now.

I don't think the rankings are crazy, although it is hard to rate the teams that are tanking vs the teams going for it.

Most NHL Playoff Wins Last 10 Years | StatMuse

Between September 10, 2014 and September 10, 2024, the Tampa Bay Lightning have the most wins by a team in the playoffs, with 87 wins.

www.statmuse.com

A shiny new franchise are going to be in love with everyone ... for a few years.

Well then you didn’t read the article, and make a judgment on facts.

The “hater” votes were 2.5% of votes, the rest were fans of their own team voting.

FYI, the hater votes gave leaf management a higher ranking than leaf fans did, now what?

I didn't read the article I watched ...


...

I suppose it is expectations ... if you think your team is poop you don't expect much, and so you don't hold your management to any standard.
Sabres, Senators, Habs, Flames, Coyotes, Sharks, Ducks ...

I agree the report is a joke.

 

[ULF_55]

How did they know who was who?

I'm sure they asked them if they were haters.

All the teams that aren't close to making the playoffs or have accomplished nothing for a decade were rated higher.

That let's you know the value in this.

There is always a tell ... Utah ...

 

[Leaf Fans]

How did they know who was who?

It is easy when you just make up numbers.

 

[NMacrules]

When the Leafs hired Shanny, I was excited. He is a stanley cup winner, and one of the toughest players in the history of the game. So I thought he would build a team in his image, but boy was I wrong. He has to go.

 

[Nineteen67]

Most NHL Playoff Wins Last 10 Years | StatMuse

Between September 10, 2014 and September 10, 2024, the Tampa Bay Lightning have the most wins by a team in the playoffs, with 87 wins.

www.statmuse.com

A shiny new franchise are going to be in love with everyone ... for a few years.



I didn't read the article I watched ...


...

I suppose it is expectations ... if you think your team is poop you don't expect much, and so you don't hold your management to any standard.
Sabres, Senators, Habs, Flames, Coyotes, Sharks, Ducks ...

I agree the report is a joke.

They can’t believe why the fans ranked them 30th and then tell us how they've failed in each of the categories.
If they took the survey they may have knocked them down to 31st.

 

[ULF_55]

They can’t believe why the fans ranked them 30th and then tell us how they've failed in each of the categories.
If they took the survey they may have knocked them down to 31st.

It is expectations.

Imagine fans of some of the Decade Dogs and compare how they ranked compared to the Leafs?

 

[Nineteen67]

It is expectations.

Imagine fans of some of the Decade Dogs and compare how they ranked compared to the Leafs?

There are still many fans that expect this team get to the Eastern final in the next 4 yrs. That number is dwindling.

 

[ULF_55]

There are still many fans that expect this team get to the Eastern final in the next 4 yrs. That number is dwindling.

And what are the expectations the Sharks, Ducks, Sabres, ... even make the playoffs?

I suppose it could be that fans of some teams are just looking at their team as entertainment.
Their expectation is "just don't be the Coyotes."

 

[Nineteen67]

And what are the expectations the Sharks, Ducks, Sabres, ... even make the playoffs?

I suppose it could be that fans of some teams are just looking at their team as entertainment.
Their expectation is "just don't be the Coyotes."

I think that’s exactly what the survey asked. MLSE sold the core but they failed to deliver. Now more and more fans are lowering expectations from a possible to Cup to a ceiling of making the Eastern final.

 

[ULF_55]

I think that’s exactly what the survey asked. MLSE sold the core but they failed to deliver. Now more and more fans are lowering expectations from a possible to Cup to a ceiling of making the Eastern final.

So Leafs are judged on 'A' level courses, and others are judged on Remedial level courses.

 

[nuck]

I wouldn't say the Kleinberg signing was bad, unless Tre knew in advance he was injured and took a chance.

Unfortunate yes.

Some posters seem to think Tre's a total failure because he hasn't moved several of the 'big four', even with their NMCs. Oddly enough, they seem to be the same posters who think it should be easy to trade Marner for McDavid and Makar (both 50% retained).

I don't want to give Tre a pass without some actual evidence, but there is obviously a chance he never had any opportunity to trade Willie. That Shanny may have handcuffed him because he was still so invested in the process he and Dubas had been following since Lou left. So if he couldn't get a #1 defenseman back before the NT kicked in he couldn't do the deal and he only had a month to find it. And the in-season Willie deal may have had Shanny's fingerprints on it as well because Tre not being afraid to go into the summer without a signing a bad deal doesn't mean the Prez was, and we know who would have made the final decision. But I haven't seen the proof so I would have to put a good chunk of it on Tre since his tenure started.

In any case this is an organizational ranking and I think it is close to accurate. If you start a club out with this core in 16-17 , how much worse than multiple 100pt seasons could it be? Burning assets to make deep playoff runs is the cost of doing business but if you burn the assets and never have playoff success, who wears that? However for this season, the front office is dealing with the limitations left to it by decisions made by the previous team. Thin system assets, thin picks, contracts not movable, so hard to make any deals that move the needle.

Its only a snapshot so clubs that got recent shine from trading off their vets or brought in a loads of youth won't stay on the wave unless those moves move from potential to actual success. I think for the Leafs to be top 10 in this meaningless ranking, they would have to make some strong deals in spite of the inherited limitations which they really haven't done yet. So people are fixated on the elephant in the room. Unless they are a wrecking ball in the playoffs it will be the same result until the current Mitch and JT deals have expired.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I don't want to give Tre a pass without some actual evidence, but there is obviously a chance he never had any opportunity to trade Willie. That Shanny may have handcuffed him because he was still so invested in the process he and Dubas had been following since Lou left. So if he couldn't get a #1 defenseman back before the NT kicked in he couldn't do the deal and he only had a month to find it. And the in-season Willie deal may have had Shanny's fingerprints on it as well because Tre not being afraid to go into the summer without a signing a bad deal doesn't mean the Prez was, and we know who would have made the final decision. But I haven't seen the proof so I would have to put a good chunk of it on Tre since his tenure started.

In any case this is an organizational ranking and I think it is close to accurate. If you start a club out with this core in 16-17 , how much worse than multiple 100pt seasons could it be? Burning assets to make deep playoff runs is the cost of doing business but if you burn the assets and never have playoff success, who wears that? However for this season, the front office is dealing with the limitations left to it by decisions made by the previous team. Thin system assets, thin picks, contracts not movable, so hard to make any deals that move the needle.

Its only a snapshot so clubs that got recent shine from trading off their vets or brought in a loads of youth won't stay on the wave unless those moves move from potential to actual success. I think for the Leafs to be top 10 in this meaningless ranking, they would have to make some strong deals in spite of the inherited limitations which they really haven't done yet. So people are fixated on the elephant in the room. Unless they are a wrecking ball in the playoffs it will be the same result until the current Mitch and JT deals have expired.

I think in your first sentence you mean Mitch and not Willy.

With that proviso, I agree with basically everything.

 

[Sypher04]

I agree that it’s meaningless, but it’s definitely not accurate. There are several teams ahead of us on the list that there really isn’t any justification for. End of the day though, who even cares - it’s the athletic after all.

 

[nuck]

I think in your first sentence you mean Mitch and not Willy.

With that proviso, I agree with basically everything.

My thoughts on the playoff failures are less on the individual stars, and more on the coach. Either Sheldon didn't properly anticipate the changes that would be happening, or his players weren't able to execute his playoff game plan. Doesn't matter which because the result was the same. This makes much more sense than not 1 but 3 star players come off big regular seasons every year but then all suddenly can't perform at close to the same level.

50pts in 57 games.
43pts in 54 games
48pts in 55 games

None of the above tells me that one player is a lion in the playoffs and another is a sheep. With three offense first guys, it looks like no one is getting it done over a 7 game series.

Evgeny Kuznetsov led his team with 32 points in 24 playoff games and nobody anywhere thought he was a Mark Messier/Gordie Howe leave it all on the ice guy. The rest of his career was 41p in 73 playoff games so measurably worse than the 3 amigos. Coaching and the team around him created the opportunity to be a monster. Even the Conn Smythe winner Marchessault was 51pts in 80 playoff games outside of the Cup year and his club had 4 deep playoff runs.

Mitch sucked balls this last playoff but prior to that he was better. In the regular season 30g and 100pts per 82 games in the last 6 seasons. Willie was 36g and 82 points over the last 5 years. I know you are strong on the idea that JT was holding him back but Pastrnak has had 110pts the last 2 years playing with centers who didn't produce as well as Tavares.

The below Nylander stat line is hard to read but its a cut and pasted off of Natural Strat Trick for 23-24 if you want to dig it up. In order, the three bolded items are Willie CF% with JT, Willie without JT, and JT without Willie. There are other factors that go into those numbers like who they are with when not each other, but the numbers don't indicate JT was an anchor.

Team	TOI With	TOI Away	CF	CA	CF% With	Nylander CF% Without	CF% Without Nylander	FF	FA	FF% With	Nylander FF% Without	FF% Without Nylander	SF	SA	SF% With	Nylander SF% Without	SF% Without Nylander	GF	GA	GF% With	Nylander GF% Without	GF% Without Nylander	xGF	xGA	xGF% With	Nylander xGF% Without	xGF% Without Nylander	SCF	SCA	SCF% With	Nylander SCF% Without	SCF% Without Nylander	SCGF	SCGA	SCGF% With	Nylander SCGF% Without	SCGF% Without Nylander	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF% With	Nylander HDCF% Without	HDCF% Without Nylander	HDGF	HDGA	HDGF% With	Nylander HDGF% Without	HDGF% Without Nylander	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%	PDO	Off. Zone Starts	Neu. Zone Starts	Def. Zone Starts	On The Fly Starts	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoffs	Neu. Zone Faceoffs	Def. Zone Faceoffs	Off. Zone Faceoff %

John Tavares	C	TOR	641:16	500:40	718	666	51.88	48.72	52.24	508	472	51.84	48.05	51.17

Anyways, even if I agreed Willie was an equal player I wouldn't have signed him just because of his contract negotiations jacking a team he supposedly loves and wants badly to pay for. He just wants whatever $ he can get and it would have been better for the club to get that out of the dressing room IMO. He was the first one up and logically the one to move. Now that he is untradeable I am good with it being MM who goes but only because he is more movable and his contract expectations figure to be north of Nylander's.

I will qualify my opinion by saying that if the club made the conscious decision last summer that they were planning to keep Willie as their first choice no matter what, hence the fat deal, then it makes more sense.

 

[notDatsyuk]

My thoughts on the playoff failures are less on the individual stars, and more on the coach. Either Sheldon didn't properly anticipate the changes that would be happening, or his players weren't able to execute his playoff game plan. Doesn't matter which because the result was the same. This makes much more sense than not 1 but 3 star players come off big regular seasons every year but then all suddenly can't perform at close to the same level.

50pts in 57 games.
43pts in 54 games
48pts in 55 games

None of the above tells me that one player is a lion in the playoffs and another is a sheep. With three offense first guys, it looks like no one is getting it done over a 7 game series.

Evgeny Kuznetsov led his team with 32 points in 24 playoff games and nobody anywhere thought he was a Mark Messier/Gordie Howe leave it all on the ice guy. The rest of his career was 41p in 73 playoff games so measurably worse than the 3 amigos. Coaching and the team around him created the opportunity to be a monster. Even the Conn Smythe winner Marchessault was 51pts in 80 playoff games outside of the Cup year and his club had 4 deep playoff runs.

Mitch sucked balls this last playoff but prior to that he was better. In the regular season 30g and 100pts per 82 games in the last 6 seasons. Willie was 36g and 82 points over the last 5 years. I know you are strong on the idea that JT was holding him back but Pastrnak has had 110pts the last 2 years playing with centers who didn't produce as well as Tavares.

The below Nylander stat line is hard to read but its a cut and pasted off of Natural Strat Trick for 23-24 if you want to dig it up. In order, the three bolded items are Willie CF% with JT, Willie without JT, and JT without Willie. There are other factors that go into those numbers like who they are with when not each other, but the numbers don't indicate JT was an anchor.

Team	TOI With	TOI Away	CF	CA	CF% With	Nylander CF% Without	CF% Without Nylander	FF	FA	FF% With	Nylander FF% Without	FF% Without Nylander	SF	SA	SF% With	Nylander SF% Without	SF% Without Nylander	GF	GA	GF% With	Nylander GF% Without	GF% Without Nylander	xGF	xGA	xGF% With	Nylander xGF% Without	xGF% Without Nylander	SCF	SCA	SCF% With	Nylander SCF% Without	SCF% Without Nylander	SCGF	SCGA	SCGF% With	Nylander SCGF% Without	SCGF% Without Nylander	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF% With	Nylander HDCF% Without	HDCF% Without Nylander	HDGF	HDGA	HDGF% With	Nylander HDGF% Without	HDGF% Without Nylander	On-Ice SH%	On-Ice SV%	PDO	Off. Zone Starts	Neu. Zone Starts	Def. Zone Starts	On The Fly Starts	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoffs	Neu. Zone Faceoffs	Def. Zone Faceoffs	Off. Zone Faceoff %

John Tavares	C	TOR	641:16	500:40	718	666	51.88	48.72	52.24	508	472	51.84	48.05	51.17

Anyways, even if I agreed Willie was an equal player I wouldn't have signed him just because of his contract negotiations jacking a team he supposedly loves and wants badly to pay for. He just wants whatever $ he can get and it would have been better for the club to get that out of the dressing room IMO. He was the first one up and logically the one to move. Now that he is untradeable I am good with it being MM who goes but only because he is more movable and his contract expectations figure to be north of Nylander's.

I will qualify my opinion by saying that if the club made the conscious decision last summer that they were planning to keep Willie as their first choice no matter what, hence the fat deal, then it makes more sense.

You may have replied to the wrong post.

All I said (other than agreeing with you) was that when you were talking about Tre only having one month to trade him, I think you meant Marner rather than Nylander.

But yes, I think giving Nylander the big contract was an indication that Tre meant to go with Willy rather than Mitch going forward.

 

[Nineteen67]

You may have replied to the wrong post.

All I said (other than agreeing with you) was that when you were talking about Tre only having one month to trade him, I think you meant Marner rather than Nylander.

But yes, I think giving Nylander the big contract was an indication that Tre meant to go with Willy rather than Mitch going forward.

I think they’re going with all three and hope that Cowan, Minton, Knies, and Woll can lead them to Eastern final.

 

[saffronleaf]

Glad to see that the rest of the league sees what this forum can't. Namely, that NewGM sucks.

 

[Crazy Monkey]

Montreal at 6th? What's Montreal doing that's making them one of the best managed teams in the league?

Didn't you hear? They were the last Canadian team to win the cup and have the most cups in history. Gives them immunity....

They have been a bad team for quite some time now. I agree with you

 

[IPS]

Glad to see that the rest of the league sees what this forum can't. Namely, that NewGM sucks.

Whats this supposed to mean?

We're not all on the Treliving train here.