GDT: NHL Free Agent Frenzy 2024

[dahrougem2]

Wha….?

Lol. It's the homerism. Hence the Georgiev defense.

 

[hockeyfish]

Wha….?

Technically not wrong.

 

[ABasin]

Technically not wrong.

LOL, right?

 

[Sea Eagles]

Wha….?

Rantanen 10
Stastny 44
Barrie 64

etc etc etc.

It's not as bleak as some propose.

 

[Avs9296]

Rantanen 10
Stastny 44
Barrie 64

etc etc etc.

It's not as bleak as some propose.

That's like 3 picks in the span of what? 20 years? Hahahaha

 

[dahrougem2]

Rantanen 10
Stastny 44
Barrie 64

etc etc etc.

It's not as bleak as some propose.

Again, statistics have been laid out in front of you regarding the futile drafting and you choose to ignore it.

Statistically the Avs are THE SINGLE WORST organization at drafting since 2006. That is a fact.

 

[CobraAcesS]

LOL, right?

Some shit in life is just the way shit is..


Time to eat popcorn and chew bubble gum at the same time. Apparently it's a winning strategy.

 

[Sea Eagles]

Ooof, I'm getting smashed here today. Last season people told me Wagner couldn't play NHL quality hockey, and he was actually a great fill in for us. I was told Annunen "sucks" - well if we are looking at stats, look at his stats !

Anyways, I'm feeling a little beaten up, so might dip out.

Have a good day guys

 

[RockLobster]

But haven't I been proven more of a realist than a homer? I basically claim we have world leading players, coaches, fans, management, owners in sports. Their results back that up. We can beat anyone. We win Stanley Cups. We are a destination of choice for players. Our players win best players in their positions. We have the best forward and D-man (and possibly right winger) on the planet - in ONE team. We develop like no others. We draft like no others. We trade like no others.

Is what it is, mate.

Quite a fair bit of this is not true.

We cannot beat anyone. We couldn't beat the Dallas Stars in the 2nd round, and we couldn't beat the Seattle Kraken in the 1st round last year.

Yes...technically we do win Stanley Cups, but the first 2 came within a 6 year period, and then we went like 21/22 years before the next one, and odds are likelier that we will have an extended period of time before having another opportunity to play for another one.

I would not say that we are a destination choice for players. We went after Panarin and he didn't want to come here. We tried to trade for Giroux at the 2022 TDL, and he chose Florida, etc.

Yes, Makar has won the Norris, and MacKinnon just this year won the Hart and Ted Lindsey...but of those two things, only Makar has a good chance at repeating.

I would say that Makar has shown he can be the best defenseman in the NHL, but last year was quite a bit below his standards, and if he really is not injured like he says, then I'd have to question if he would be the, clear and away, best in the NHL. Also, while no one here dislikes MacKinnon, he is not the best forward in the NHL, nor would I say Mikko is the best RW in the NHL.

We do not "develop like others", in fact our track record is rather poor in development. Or, is it the next point I'll make...

We do not "draft well". In fact, our draft record is putrid. So then you must ask "Do we develop poorly because we draft poorly, or do we just develop poorly?"

Trades...mostly good, but there's been some bad in there too. Joe waited too long to go all in on the team while MacKinnon was on his sweetheart contract. A 2nd for Lars Eller was not good, etc. So, as I said, mostly good, but not something I'd say "we trade like no other".

 

[AllAboutAvs]

By saying the Avs as currently constructed need a goalie that can steal games admitting that the Avs aren't very good?

I don't disagree at all. But if the team as currently constructed needs a goalie capable of stealing games to go anywhere in the playoffs. You're not a good team. And getting a goalie capable of stealing games with any reliability is going to cost assets in a trade and cap room. Which further weakens the rest of the roster.

The only solution is to trade Rantanen and rebuild.

The Avs don't need to rebuild. Trading Mikko would be a retool.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Quite a fair bit of this is not true.

We cannot beat anyone. We couldn't beat the Dallas Stars in the 2nd round, and we couldn't beat the Seattle Kraken in the 1st round last year.

Yes...technically we do win Stanley Cups, but the first 2 came within a 6 year period, and then we went like 21/22 years before the next one, and odds are likelier that we will have an extended period of time before having another opportunity to play for another one.

I would not say that we are a destination choice for players. We went after Panarin and he didn't want to come here. We tried to trade for Giroux at the 2022 TDL, and he chose Florida, etc.

Yes, Makar has won the Norris, and MacKinnon just this year won the Hart and Ted Lindsey...but of those two things, only Makar has a good chance at repeating.

I would say that Makar has shown he can be the best defenseman in the NHL, but last year was quite a bit below his standards, and if he really is not injured like he says, then I'd have to question if he would be the, clear and away, best in the NHL. Also, while no one here dislikes MacKinnon, he is not the best forward in the NHL, nor would I say Mikko is the best RW in the NHL.

We do not "develop like others", in fact our track record is rather poor in development. Or, is it the next point I'll make...

We do not "draft well". In fact, our draft record is putrid. So then you must ask "Do we develop poorly because we draft poorly, or do we just develop poorly?"

Trades...mostly good, but there's been some bad in there too. Joe waited too long to go all in on the team while MacKinnon was on his sweetheart contract. A 2nd for Lars Eller was not good, etc. So, as I said, mostly good, but not something I'd say "we trade like no other".

This is why I don't even remotely understand CMacs plan to attempt to stay relevant by keeping first round picks. It's a little late for that shit to help.


But, we're all not that far off of being obsessed with "the future", so maybe he's just another Avs fan.

 

[henchman21]

I think I need to read my notifications bottom up, rather than the other way so I'm in order.

I completely agree with you winning and losing is a team stat. But you can't then cherry pick and say personal statistics "are entirely" or "solely" on any player alone. I'd say "most" of the players are as good as the team allow them to be. Georgiev was sub 3 GAA in his previous 3 years. Jeez, he had a GAA of 2.53 the season before this one.

Look at Mack's award ceremony speech. In fact, most players say it. "It's not just me that's won this award, I've only achieved what I have due to the players around me".

I really felt Georgiev was our boards whipping boy last season. It's frustrating. Anyways, he has some different coaching strategies this coming season, so let's see how he goes.

Let's just take GSAA. In theory the stat is based on the league average. If a goalie is perfectly average, they'll be at zero. If they are better, they'll be positive. Worse, negative.

Here's George's GSAA/60:

23-24:-0.14
22-23: +0.05
21-22: -0.66
20-21: -0.15
19-20: -0.08
18-19: +0.14
17-18: +0.17

17-18 he only played 10 games, starting 9. In a season where he's played 19 or more games, only 2 out of 6 has he been above average. One year, 18-19, he was significantly above average. 22-23 is slightly above. 3 of the 6 seasons he was well below average (last season being one) and one of 6 he was slightly below average.

Other Avs starting goalies:

17-18 (Varly): +0.08
18-19: Varly -0.12 (49 games lost the job to Grubi) Grubi +0.13 (37 games)
19-20: Grubi -0.09 (36 games... split the net) Frank +0.14
20-21: Grubi +0.29
21-22: Kuemper +0.18

George's season in 23-24 was the worst performance by an Avs goalie who played 10 or more games since Varly in 18-19. His 'good' 22-23 season would rank behind at least 1 Avs goalie who played at least 10 games going all the way back to 09-10 when the Avs rolled Anderson/Budaj.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Let's just take GSAA. In theory the stat is based on the league average. If a goalie is perfectly average, they'll be at zero. If they are better, they'll be positive. Worse, negative.

Here's George's GSAA/60:

23-24:-0.14
22-23: +0.05
21-22: -0.66
20-21: -0.15
19-20: -0.08
18-19: +0.14
17-18: +0.17

17-18 he only played 10 games, starting 9. In a season where he's played 19 or more games, only 2 out of 6 has he been above average. One year, 18-19, he was significantly above average. 22-23 is slightly above. 3 of the 6 seasons he was well below average (last season being one) and one of 6 he was slightly below average.

Other Avs starting goalies:

17-18 (Varly): +0.08
18-19: Varly -0.12 (49 games lost the job to Grubi) Grubi +0.13 (37 games)
19-20: Grubi -0.09 (36 games... split the net) Frank +0.14
20-21: Grubi +0.29
21-22: Kuemper +0.18

George's season in 23-24 was the worst performance by an Avs goalie who played 10 or more games since Varly in 18-19. His 'good' 22-23 season would rank behind at least 1 Avs goalie who played at least 10 games going all the way back to 09-10 when the Avs rolled Anderson/Budaj.

Hasn't our team defense taken quite the step back though?

 

[henchman21]

Hasn't our team defense taken quite the step back though?

In theory, GSAA takes that into account. Of the on net shots a goalie faces, an average goalie would save ___% of low danger, ___ % of medium, and ___% of high. The +/- from there is being how a goalie relates to the average. That average is for that season in those situations (5v5, PP, PK,etc).

Along with that, outside 20-21, the Avs are in the same realm as they have been for the past 5-6 seasons.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

In theory, GSAA takes that into account. Of the on net shots a goalie faces, an average goalie would save ___% of low danger, ___ % of medium, and ___% of high. The +/- from there is being how a goalie relates to the average. That average is for that season in those situations (5v5, PP, PK,etc).

Along with that, outside 20-21, the Avs are in the same realm as they have been for the past 5-6 seasons.

Ya that stat is only good in theory. In practice, goalies changing teams greatly impacts their GSAA.

 

[CobraAcesS]

In theory, GSAA takes that into account. Of the on net shots a goalie faces, an average goalie would save ___% of low danger, ___ % of medium, and ___% of high. The +/- from there is being how a goalie relates to the average. That average is for that season in those situations (5v5, PP, PK,etc).

Along with that, outside 20-21, the Avs are in the same realm as they have been for the past 5-6 seasons.

Ok book him on the next Musk transport to the moon as long as the cost of the ticket doesn't count against the cap. I was on the fence anyway.

I hope they realize this, because starting goalie is our biggest hole based on everything you posted and the 4Giev nick name being a thing.

Unfortunately I don't even know who to hope they trade for though lol.

How has Gibson done recently? Does he still qualify as a good goalie on a bad team?

 

[dahrougem2]

Ok book him on the next Musk transport to the moon as long as the cost of the ticket doesn't count against the cap. I was on the fence anyway.

I hope they realize this, because starting goalie is our biggest hole based on everything you posted and the 4Giev nick name being a thing.

Unfortunately I don't even know who to hope they trade for though lol.

How has Gibson done recently? Does he still qualify as a good goalie on a bad team?

Gibson consistently gets outplayed by whoever the backup is for the Ducks. He is a bad goalie on a bad team.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Gibson consistently gets outplayed by whoever the backup is for the Ducks. He is a bad goalie on a bad team.

It does kind of suck that dudes career has basically been swallowed by a organization stuck in mediocrity. Although he chose to stay.

Unfortunate

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Again, statistics have been laid out in front of you regarding the futile drafting and you choose to ignore it.

Statistically the Avs are THE SINGLE WORST organization at drafting since 2006. That is a fact.

To further expand on this, I did a little research and it seems like there's a general consensus (promoted by the NHLPA) that the average length of an NHL career is about 5.5 season (or 451 games). Let's say it takes an additional 2.5 seasons for a prospect to make the jump to the NHL, we will start our count at 2016 (8 years from the recent draft). We can take a 10 year window from 2006-2016 and start to look at how many "average NHL careers" the Avs produced...it's 9, they produced 9. Their only successes outside of the 1st round all came in the same draft (2009).

2006 Chris Stewart
2007 Kevin Shattenkirk
2009 Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, Tyson Barrie
2011 Gabriel Landeskog
2013 Nathan MacKinnon
2015 Mikko Rantanen
2016 Tyson Jost

Want to give the Avs a generous read and say, okay, what about just half of an average NHL career (225 games)? That adds a whopping 2 players.

2007 TJ Galiardi
2013 Will Butcher

Let's be even more generous and just say the cutoff is 100 games. That adds 6 players.

17 players getting to at least 100 NHL games in a 10 year span, with only 9 having a sustained career (getting to the "average" career length threshold). That's really not good. They don't really have anyone in that timespan that looks like they'll be able to hit that threshold that hasn't already either.

Let's compare that to Tampa Bay, who in that same time span produced 12.

2007 Alex Killorn
2008 Steven Stamkos
2009 Victor Hedman, Richard Panik
2010 Brett Connolly, Radko Gudas
2011 Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat
2012 Andrei Vasilevsky
2013 Jonathan Drouin
2014 Brayden Point

On top of that they've got a bunch of players with a good shot at making that 451 games threshold: Adam Erne (72 games off), Tony DeAngelo (80 games), Anthony Cirelli (20 games), Mathieu Joseph (91 games), Brett Howden (100 games), Taylor Raddish (226 games), Ross Colton (181 games) and Cedric Paquette missed by a whopping 3 games. That's 20 possible players within that same time span.

The Avs complete inability to draft is one of the big reasons why they will have to be creative to remain in contention.

 

[henchman21]

Ya that stat is only good in theory. In practice, goalies changing teams greatly impacts their GSAA.

It certainly can and different goalies have different strengths so not everything is equal, but it is the closest we have currently in public stats. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

 

[EscapedGoat]

Ooof, I'm getting smashed here today. Last season people told me Wagner couldn't play NHL quality hockey, and he was actually a great fill in for us. I was told Annunen "sucks" - well if we are looking at stats, look at his stats !

Anyways, I'm feeling a little beaten up, so might dip out.

Have a good day guys

You're getting "smashed" because you continue to treat being an Avs fan like it's a cult. You absolutely ignore facts and reality and continue to say everything the Avs do is the best, every player is the best, etc.

This isn't a cult. You don't need to ignore facts and reality. Anybody who constantly says things that are just simply untrue and contrary to reality is going to get called out.

Georgiev ISNT the best goalie in the league, even though he led in wins. That's a FACT. Actual statistics show he's a below average starter in this league.

The Avs ARENT a good drafting team. Again, that's a FACT. With actual data to back it up. Staring otherwise because you picked three players in the last 20 years is just laughable.

Stop treating this like it's a cult. It's not. It's okay to live in reality. If someone on the street told you that "the sky is red" but you look and see that it's blue. You'd think that guy is crazy for ignoring reality. That's basically what you're doing here.

 

[Pokecheque]

Guys, why are we going after Sea Eagles?

One overtly positive poster is perfectly fine to have on here. Certainly amidst the apocalyptic levels of negativity around hereof which, I freely admit, I am a regular contributor.

If you don't like what he says or are tired of his posts, do what most of you on here have done with me, and put him on ignore.

I get it's the dead-est part of the offseason, so if you're looking for something to do, step away from the keyboard, go outside, and touch some grass.

 

[MacKaRant]

You're getting "smashed" because you continue to treat being an Avs fan like it's a cult. You absolutely ignore facts and reality and continue to say everything the Avs do is the best, every player is the best, etc.

This isn't a cult. You don't need to ignore facts and reality. Anybody who constantly says things that are just simply untrue and contrary to reality is going to get called out.

Georgiev ISNT the best goalie in the league, even though he led in wins. That's a FACT. Actual statistics show he's a below average starter in this league.

The Avs ARENT a good drafting team. Again, that's a FACT. With actual data to back it up. Staring otherwise because you picked three players in the last 20 years is just laughable.

Stop treating this like it's a cult. It's not. It's okay to live in reality. If someone on the street told you that "the sky is red" but you look and see that it's blue. You'd think that guy is crazy for ignoring reality. That's basically what you're doing here.

 

[LOFIN]

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ooof, I'm getting smashed here today. Last season people told me Wagner couldn't play NHL quality hockey, and he was actually a great fill in for us. I was told Annunen "sucks" - well if we are looking at stats, look at his stats !

Anyways, I'm feeling a little beaten up, so might dip out.

Have a good day guys