GDT: NHL Draft 2023

[SI90]

@Chapin Landvogt awesome write up!! Thank you!

 

[leeroggy]

Our best prospect?

Kind of curious what makes you think that.

At the moment, Lennox is coming into a fairly ideal situation. There's zero pressure to do anything but spend the next 3 seasons growing and learning. Heck, if he's good enough, there's a starting gig in the AHL to gain.

But let's not kid ourselves.... Until proven otherwise, there's nothing yet about this kid that makes him any more special than a dozen other goalies coming out of the CHL alone, if not just the OHL. This is a player who missed an entire season, then played 28 and 45 regular season games respectively. He wasn't even an all-everything starter for his Saginaw program.

And whereas his technical numbers picked up in the playoffs (albeit, with a 4-4-3 record), a 3.15 GAA and .888 SV% in the regular season is nothing to write home about. Nothing.

As mentioned, he's got a wonderful situation of slow progression to look forward to just now.

Much good would have to transpire in order for him to be an NHL option within two seasons.

PS) Best prospect? I don't we can viably get around Dufour and Maggio as our best prospects right now, and that's not really including Holmstrom and Bolduc, who are "on the Island".

Sorry Chapin, best GOALIE prospect, I should have made that clearer

 

[scott99]

Our best prospect?

Kind of curious what makes you think that.

At the moment, Lennox is coming into a fairly ideal situation. There's zero pressure to do anything but spend the next 3 seasons growing and learning. Heck, if he's good enough, there's a starting gig in the AHL to gain.

But let's not kid ourselves.... Until proven otherwise, there's nothing yet about this kid that makes him any more special than a dozen other goalies coming out of the CHL alone, if not just the OHL. This is a player who missed an entire season, then played 28 and 45 regular season games respectively. He wasn't even an all-everything starter for his Saginaw program.

And whereas his technical numbers picked up in the playoffs (albeit, with a 4-4-3 record), a 3.15 GAA and .888 SV% in the regular season is nothing to write home about. Nothing.

As mentioned, he's got a wonderful situation of slow progression to look forward to just now.

Much good would have to transpire in order for him to be an NHL option within two seasons.

PS) Still, best prospect? I don't think we can viably get around Dufour and Maggio as our best prospects right now, and that's not really including Holmstrom and Bolduc, who are "on the Island".

I think he means best goalie prospect. Also, you’re relying too much on stats. He wasn’t on a great team. He had a month or 2 where he was goalie of the month in the OHL.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I think he means best goalie prospect. Also, you’re relying too much on stats. He wasn’t on a great team. He had a month or 2 where he was goalie of the month in the OHL.

Was I using his stats to make a definitive statement on him and his possibilities moving forward?

Or was I using his stats to point out why he's not our top prospect while under the belief that a poster was claiming him to be our top prospect?

I feel the need to respond because I've been on these boards for roughly 20 years now and am one of the last posters who sums up and rates a player up based on his statistical output.

Dunno just how good Lennox can be, but I'm as excited as anyone to find out.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Sorry Chapin, best GOALIE prospect, I should have made that clearer

Gotchya.

Still, not saying a whole lot as there's him, a re-upped Skarek, and Tikkanen.

I think Appleby is the only other one in the system in any way, shape, or form.

But the position is covered at the NHL level and now has four guys to duke it out between the AHL and ECHL. We're all set here for the near future.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

If you haven't gotten enough of the recent draft, here's a fun article to take a look at: 2023 NHL DRAFT: Round by round review - Brock Otten's favourite picks and questionable selections.

Nice seeing this there too:

Oh, and at least one poster here will be excited to see this:

 

[scott99]

Was I using his stats to make a definitive statement on him and his possibilities moving forward?

Or was I using his stats to point out why he's not our top prospect while under the belief that a poster was claiming him to be our top prospect?

I feel the need to respond because I've been on these boards for roughly 20 years now and am one of the last posters who sums up and rates a player up based on his statistical output.

Dunno just how good Lennox can be, but I'm as excited as anyone to find out.

Been on these boards for maybe as long as that as well. I hate stats, unless they are awful, then they might sum up a bad player. Being an ex goalie (roller hockey in the 1970s), and a really horrible one at that, with me being the exception, a goalie’s stats can be judged by their situation as opposed to their personal stats. There are NHL Hall Of Fame goalies with career goals against over 3.00 and save percentages under .900. But it can be explained by era and teams they played on.

I wasn’t necessarily accusing you of using stats only. Just mentioning stats aren’t always the answer to the question of how good OR bad a prospect will become. When it comes to prospects, your insight is the best on the board. There have been some great NHL Draft/Prospect gurus on this board, but your level is on a Professional scout level.

 

[seafoam]

If you only draft based on stats, you will miss out on some talent.

If you only draft based on the eye test, you will miss out on some talent.

Where I am at with drafting, philosophically, is that assembling a organization/team is akin to assembling a band or an orchestra. You may have three of the most talented guitarists in the world, but if they all want center stage and no one can play the bass or drum, you’re shit out of luck.

 

[doublechili]

If you haven't gotten enough of the recent draft, here's a fun article to take a look at: 2023 NHL DRAFT: Round by round review - Brock Otten's favourite picks and questionable selections.

Nice seeing this there too:
View attachment 726932

Oh, and at least one poster here will be excited to see this:
View attachment 726933

Thanks for posting that Nelson blurb. Once you get past the top picks and deal with more uncertainty, I really like drafting a kid who is one of the youngest players in the draft and also just (successfully) switched from D to C last year. I can see a coach telling him to focus on being a prototypical shutdown 3C in that case. Which could mean there's room for offensive growth.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

In case it's of interest, here are some rankings of our picks by several agencies heading into the draft.

Danny Nelson - 49th overall
CSS NA: 22
Eliteprospects: 43
McKeen's: 49
DraftPro: 33
FC Hockey: 99
Pronman: 32

Jesse Jurmi - 113th overall
CSS EU: 28
Eliteprospects: NR Grade D (6th-7th round)
McKeen's: 91
DraftPro: 97
FC Hockey: 101
Pronman: 108

Justin Gill - 145th overall
CSS NA: 116
Eliteprospects: NR Grade F (Do not draft)
McKeen's: 217
DraftPro: 235
FC Hockey: 176
Pronman: Not mentioned - Outside of top 142

Zach Schulz - 177th overall
CSS NA: 96
Eliteprospects: NR Grade C (3rd-5th round)
McKeen's: NR Honorable Mention
DraftPro: 94
FC Hockey: 180
Pronman: 118

Dennis Good Bogg - 209th overall
CSS EU: Not mentioned
Eliteprospects: Not mentioned
McKeen's: Not mentioned
DraftPro: Not mentioned
FC Hockey: Not mentioned
Pronman: Not mentioned - Outside of top 142

 

[leeroggy]

In case it's of interest, here are some rankings of our picks by several agencies heading into the draft.

Danny Nelson - 49th overall
CSS NA: 22
Eliteprospects: 43
McKeen's: 49
DraftPro: 33
FC Hockey: 99
Pronman: 32

Jesse Jurmi - 113th overall
CSS EU: 28
Eliteprospects: NR Grade D (6th-7th round)
McKeen's: 91
DraftPro: 97
FC Hockey: 101
Pronman: 108

Justin Gill - 145th overall
CSS NA: 116
Eliteprospects: NR Grade F (Do not draft)
McKeen's: 217
DraftPro: 235
FC Hockey: 176
Pronman: Not mentioned - Outside of top 142

Zach Schulz - 177th overall
CSS NA: 96
Eliteprospects: NR Grade C (3rd-5th round)
McKeen's: NR Honorable Mention
DraftPro: 94
FC Hockey: 180
Pronman: 118

Dennis Good Bogg - 209th overall
CSS EU: Not mentioned
Eliteprospects: Not mentioned
McKeen's: Not mentioned
DraftPro: Not mentioned
FC Hockey: Not mentioned
Pronman: Not mentioned - Outside of top 142

Has there ever been an analysis of past performance by these services versus each other?

 

[Skip To My Lou]

If you haven't gotten enough of the recent draft, here's a fun article to take a look at: 2023 NHL DRAFT: Round by round review - Brock Otten's favourite picks and questionable selections.

Oh, and at least one poster here will be excited to see this:
View attachment 726933

Oh Chapin, you know me too well.