GDT: NHL 2020 Draft, Day 2

[crassbonanza]

Let’s also not forget the fact that maybe 1 in 10 prospects drafted after the second round will ever play more than a 100 games in the NHL.

Well, that's just not true. Here is the number of 2nd round picks from the following drafts to play over 100 games: 2008 - 12, 2009 - 12, 2010 - 15, 2011 - 18, 2012 - 10, 2013 - 12, 2014 - 6, 2015 - 9. That averages out to ~40% of 2nd round players playing more than 100 games, much higher than the 10% you are claiming.

Do you remember how many people thought Paul Ladue was going to be a certified top four defenseman? I do.

LaDue was a 6th round pick, much different success rate than the 2nd round.

Or better yet, put it this way: only ONE of Kaliyev, Bjornfot, and Fagemo will play more than a 100 NHL games. Think about how hyped all three of those players are right now. Statistically, only ONE of them will have an actual NHL career. The other two will bust or be career AHLers/go back to Europe. And that specific trio has slightly inflated collective odds due to Bjornfot being drafted late in the first round.

Can you show me how you came to that conclusion? That seems overly pessimistic.

Want one more cold shower? Statistically, one of Byfield, Turcotte, and Vilardi will bust.

I guess it all depends on your definition of bust, but this too seems overly pessimistic.

 

[driller1]

Well, that's just not true. Here is the number of 2nd round picks from the following drafts to play over 100 games: 2008 - 12, 2009 - 12, 2010 - 15, 2011 - 18, 2012 - 10, 2013 - 12, 2014 - 6, 2015 - 9. That averages out to ~40% of 2nd round players playing more than 100 games, much higher than the 10% you are claiming.

.

He said maybe 1 in 10 prospects drafted AFTER the 2nd round... So 31 teams X Rounds 3-7 = 155 prospects is the correct number for your denominator.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Well, that's just not true. Here is the number of 2nd round picks from the following drafts to play over 100 games: 2008 - 12, 2009 - 12, 2010 - 15, 2011 - 18, 2012 - 10, 2013 - 12, 2014 - 6, 2015 - 9. That averages out to ~40% of 2nd round players playing more than 100 games, much higher than the 10% you are claiming.



LaDue was a 6th round pick, much different success rate than the 2nd round.



Can you show me how you came to that conclusion? That seems overly pessimistic.



I guess it all depends on your definition of bust, but this too seems overly pessimistic.

Looks like another poster already corrected your misunderstanding, but I wasn’t talking about the second round alone.

 

[Mats26]

How about something like...

Tier 1

1. Byfield
2. Turcotte
3. Vilardi
4.Kaliyev

Tier 2

5. Bjornfot
6. Fagemo
7. Grans
8. Madden

Tier 3

9. Thomas
10. Faber
11. Anderson
12. Kupari
13. Clague

Tier 4

14. Anderson-Dolan
15. Andersson
16. Grundstrom
17. Chromiak

Tier 5

18. Hults
19. Spence
20. Laferriere
21. Durzi
22. Dudas
23. Simontaival

Tier 6

24. Nousiainen
25. Strand
26. Moverare
27. Phillips

The cupboard is stocked. But they have a combined ~30 games of NHL experience right now. Next step will be huge to see who busts and who makes it.

 

[crassbonanza]

He said maybe 1 in 10 prospects drafted AFTER the 2nd round... So 31 teams X Rounds 3-7 = 155 prospects is the correct number for your denominator.

Yeah, I thought he was talking about 2nd round picks, missed the after part.

 

[funky]

I would love to know if Kleven was in our plans. He seemed like the perfect blend of size and nasty we need. As soon as he was picked the Kings move up and grab his partner. I wonder if both of them were in their same grouping and once Tyler was picked they didn’t want to miss out on the last person in the group?

 

[crassbonanza]

Looks like another poster already corrected your misunderstanding, but I wasn’t talking about the second round alone.

Sorry, thought you were talking about 2nd round picks only with that part.

 

[BigKing]

Some of the grumpiness around this draft is going to be due to how well our prospects drafted rounds 2-4 have done the last few years.

For example, if we do a prospect ranking right now, how many would vote Faber ahead of Fagemo, Kaliyev, Thomas, or JAD? Or Markkanen ahead of Spence, Nousiainen, Dudas, or Mikey Anderson?

These guys are going to start lower on our prospect list than the guys from previous drafts did, but that's not a reflection of a poor draft, rather that of a stronger pool.

Last year was the first time the Kings had a Top 5 pick since Schenn ten years ago, plus they had a 2nd 1st round pick. Vilardi was still in limbo so the prospect pool wasn't looking so hot.

Then we get the fun of the Kaliyev pass over then nab on Day 2 and a nice trade up for a guy in Fagemo that was playing against men already and looking good. Talking heads and HF posters alike are saying the Kings crushed it. I mean, it had felt like the Kings hadn't had a great draft in years. Even Turcotte felt a bit like a gift at the time when Chicago went with Dach.

This year has the potential to be better simply because of Byfield but it isn't as exciting because it truly did feel like QB all along so--at least to me--it was anti-climatic. Kaliyev was a guy last year that was all over the map in rankings and felt like a giant steal at the time while also providing something the Kings don't have in its prospect pool. The whole drama about passing on him then getting him anyone just made the pick feel that much better, like they actually had three first round picks.

Faber? Grans? Cool. Same amount of coolness as JAD or Thomas when they were taken. Most of us don't deep dive into the depths of late 2nd round picks and generally focus on the first rounders. Kaliyev was on all of our radars last year for 22OA so getting him in the 2nd was very exciting. Most drafts don't generate that type of excitement after Round 1. I mean, most of us are going to get really excited about Rounds 2-4 when they take a faller. "2nd Round talent in Round 4!!"

The most exciting thing today is the Lias A trade but I'm happy with the draft because they appear to be drafting well the last few years. Can't argue with the process so far.

 

[kilowatt]

 

[KopitarFAN]

This year was different for me, because I was out of work for almost 6 months, I was probably 5 rounds deep, I think the only one I didn't know was Aatu Jämsen

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Wheeler and Pronman both like the Kings draft.

Wheeler listed the Kings as one of his "winners":

This project follows my pick-by-pick first round grades by sorting into the following tiers:
• Winners: Teams I believe won out over their competition with sleuth, home-run-level selections relative where they picked.
• Overtime winners: Teams I believe did well with where they were slotted, even if they might not have picked the exact player(s) I would have.
• Overtime losers: Teams I believe could have done better but might, in time, be happy with their pick(s) regardless.
• Losers: Teams I believe will regret taking the player(s) they took.
...
That made for five picks I liked for one reason or another — and a big day. The Kings get it.

Pronman gave the Kings an A-:

The Kings got a potential star center at No. 2 in Quinton Byfield, getting one of the toughest pieces to find when building a team. They followed it up with a lot of picks on Day 2. I think their next three picks, Helge Grans, Brock Faber and Kasper Simontaival, all have solid chances to play NHL games and I didn’t mind some of their later picks either. Adding depth and impact is the ideal draft weekend.

 

[Jericho111091]

The only thing about today that kind of bugged me was passing on Nico Daws, but c'est la vie

 

[Docgonzo]

This year was different for me, because I was out of work for almost 6 months, I was probably 5 rounds deep, I think the only one I didn't know was Aatu Jämsen

Same, thanks to losing the job I’ve just been focusing on the draft non stop. Just something to keep my mind going.

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[ru4reals]

I think overall our draft last year was better in my opinion. Many of them showed great promise and had a very good season in their respected leagues. I'll be happy if one player makes the big club not named Byfield from this years crop. All I have to say is our prospects pool is looking really good though. Damn.

 

[Statto]

I agree about not getting tied to prospects. It’s absolutely correct that most after the 2nd round won’t make it, however we really are stacked with good prospects with character. It’s that character they have that makes me think many of them will at least get close to their ceilings. Our recent drafting has been exceptional and I think it will produce the most prospects we’ve ever had graduate to the big club. It’s too early to tell on this years class, Byfield apart, and whilst I think they definitely strengthen our prospect pool I can’t comment in detail about who will make it.

We have a couple of very good role prospects that may not be stars but will fit into the lineup and do specific jobs. So JAD is my pick for a long term 4c and I’m really high on Akil Thomas in a similar role to Trevor Lewis, playing where needed but with a bit more offensive upside. Fagemo I love and I’m certain that Turcotte will make it but at LW if it is as a King, because Vilardi has 2C locked up IMO. Björnfot and Mikey Anderson will make it and we just need to figure our if they become our 1st/2nd pair LD or 2nd/3rd pair LD.

Those are the guys I think will definitely be NHL players and after that there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes with no guarantees.

Kaliyev is still boom/bust and whilst I do think he will make it there is definitely an element of risk there, and more so with Madden. Don’t get me wrong I love both players and like having them in our system but there is a chance neither makes it. I’m not convinced by Clague and it’s now or never for him as he’s about to start quickly sliding down the depth chart. Personally I’d move him whilst he still has some value. I still think Kupari has a chance as a middle 6 guy and he’s one where the Covid break helps as it lessens the impact of his injury, but he’s another boom/bust guy. Like Clague Gründstrom has to do it now or he will be gone.

After that it’s a lot of guess work for me and the hope of a few surprises. Without a doubt some of the guys will get moved because they won’t be quite what we hoped for, or if they are we won’t be able to keep them all under the salary cap.

That’s my take and for the record I never thought that LaDue was going to be a full time NHL player, I was 100% certain of that after the first time I saw him play. I have watched multiple full games of the prospects I think will make it also, so I’m not basing it from highlight reels and opinion pieces. That’s not to say it makes my opinion and interpretation valid, but it is informed to some degree.

 

[Brodeur]

I'm rewatching the Sportsnet broadcast for the draft and they had Mike Futa as one of the analysts. Futa told an amusing story about how they trolled the Coyotes at the 2009 Draft when they knew they badly wanted Oliver Ekman-Larsson at #6 and LA had the #5 pick.

They were sitting at adjacent tables and as the Kings are on the clock, Futa tells one of the staffers to put the Ekman-Larsson nameplate on a Kings jersey and made sure to do it so the Coyotes table would see it. Futa said their reaction was priceless, mix of stunned silence and anger.