Next years cap/roster

[UglyPuckling]

Giroux will be a 1 year $3 million, he’s already made $100 million USD for his career and he’s not in a great negotiating spot. He’s losing down and won’t want to move.
JBD at $1.5 and he’ll be well worth it

I don’t know what Giroux will sign for. I’ve never talked to him, and I’m not Nostradamus. You might be right. He could sign for less. I’m not sure what you mean by “he’s losing down”.

If you’ve read what I’ve written a few different times, I go a little higher to see if things will work. I seem to have to keep repeating this a lot. Most professional cost estimators do this and build in a little contingency. It's far better to overestimate a little and deal with positive surprises, than deal with the negative ramifications of underestimating.

 

[Inf4mous0ne]

I don’t know what Giroux will sign for. I’ve never talked to him, and I’m not Nostradamus. You might be right. He could sign for less. I’m not sure what you mean by “he’s losing down”.

If you’ve read what I’ve written a few different times, I go a little higher to see if things will work. I seem to have to keep repeating this a lot. Most professional cost estimators do this and build in a little contingency. It's far better to overestimate a little and deal with positive surprises, than deal with the negative ramifications of underestimating.

I think that was probably "He's slowing* down"

With the roster and salaries identified in the spreadsheet below, I see us being about $500 k under cap.

Some of the assumptions for the spreadsheet are:

• Several players signed over this summer return to the 2025-26 lineup
• $5 m for Giroux or a replacement
• Yakemchuk and Ostapchuk are roster players
• Grieg & Kleven get $4.75 m
• $2 m allotted for a backup goalie.

View attachment 917325

Above makes sense, though I think Greig and Giroux's numbers are a little high unless they have great years. Without being too optimistic, I think it is possible we can add another decent forward to our top 6.

Say Greig $2.5M (+$500K saved) and Giroux takes a contract at $3M (+$2M saved, perhaps through bonuses/cap deferral it really equates to $4M), that would give us $2.5M right there. We shift Grieg down to 4C, and Cousins/Ostapchuk can be his line mates. Make MacEwan 13F and that's another $950K saved. Gives us a total of about $3.5M to try to sign another decent forward that could support our top 6 (could get up to $4ish if we get a backup goalie around $1.5M, but left that out).

Think that would leave us with a better top 6 and a solid bottom 6.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I think that was probably "He's slowing* down"


Above makes sense, though I think Greig and Giroux's numbers are a little high unless they have great years. Without being too optimistic, I think it is possible we can add another decent forward to our top 6.

Say Greig $2.5M (+$500K saved) and Giroux takes a contract at $3M (+$2M saved, perhaps through bonuses/cap deferral it really equates to $4M), that would give us $2.5M right there. We shift Grieg down to 4C, and Cousins/Ostapchuk can be his line mates. Make MacEwan 13F and that's another $950K saved. Gives us a total of about $3.5M to try to sign another decent forward that could support our top 6 (could get up to $4ish if we get a backup goalie around $1.5M, but left that out).

Think that would leave us with a better top 6 and a solid bottom 6.

MacEwan and Ostapchuk are under contract next year and their cap hit numbers are already included in the spreadsheet. Shifting them to another line won’t change anything when it comes to cost. Pinto’s cap hit is $3.75 m for his RFA contract, so I went lower ($3 m) for Grieg’s RFA contract.

I’ve noted that some costs could be a little lower, but explained the thinking in several posts already including the one you responded to.

 

[Inf4mous0ne]

MacEwan and Ostapchuk are under contract next year and their cap hit numbers are already included in the spreadsheet. Shifting them to another line won’t change anything when it comes to cost. Pinto’s cap hit is $3.75 m for his RFA contract, so I went lower ($3 m) for Grieg’s RFA contract.

I’ve noted that some costs could be a little lower, but explained the thinking in several posts already including the one you responded to.

Yes, but shifting MacEwan to 13F eliminates the need for the $950K you had earmarked for Halliday/a TBD forward (and we can use that cap room towards a top 6 forward).

Otherwise, not arguing the numbers (as we can't predict what they do), just saying there's a world where with some savings/maneuvering on contracts, we potentially could have $3M-$4M available for a top 6 forward.

 

[Big Muddy]

Just looking at the various estimates, it looks like we’ll be in the the $90 - 92 million range if we go with mostly the same players and give new contracts to those that need one like ELC player contracts graduating to RFA.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Yes, but shifting MacEwan to 13F eliminates the need for the $950K you had earmarked for Halliday/a TBD forward (and we can use that cap room towards a top 6 forward).

Otherwise, not arguing the numbers (as we can't predict what they do), just saying there's a world where with some savings/maneuvering on contracts, we potentially could have $3M-$4M available for a top 6 forward.

OK, thanks for explaining & I get what you're saying now. If you do as you suggest, you’ll end up with a 21 player roster. Some teams do that, but the risk is when you get an injury when the team is on a road trip and thus the team plays with a short bench.

I put another spreadsheet together with lower estimates for several players. I guess there’s some reluctance based the law of probability though which I wonder if people understand (the math involved). I can provide an example if there’s any interest.

No matter, see below for another iteration that is more optimistic (lower cap hits for some players).