News & Notes XLIV: Revenge of the Seth

[HisIceness]

I mean I thought the 21-22 team would take a step back and they had the greatest regular season in franchise history. Should clarify here, I didn't think they'd miss but I didn't see a 116 point/54 win season.

I honestly don't know, but I dreamt like a week ago this upcoming team beat the defending Cup champ Panthers in a 7 game series so, imma say our boys do that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don’t think it’s utterly absurd, because you can’t bar major injuries. There are almost always major injuries. Just within the past few years we’ve lost Svech long term, Andersen long term, Pacioretty altogether, Slavin for the playoffs. We’re already missing Fast to a potential career-ender. May as well expect significant disruptions and count ourselves lucky if it doesn’t happen.

There are definitely 2-3 guys on this roster who, if they were to go down for a length of time, would make it a lot harder to see this as a playoff roster.

True, but it's no different for all other teams as well. Injuries to key players would impact their success. I might argue that because of the Canes system, they might be less susceptible to individual injuries than other teams, many who rely on individual performance.

The concern for me is that Defense has been our strength and I'm not sure how this D corps will perform.

 

[cptjeff]

I don’t think it’s utterly absurd, because you can’t bar major injuries. There are almost always major injuries. Just within the past few years we’ve lost Svech long term, Andersen long term, Pacioretty altogether, Slavin for the playoffs. We’re already missing Fast to a potential career-ender. May as well expect significant disruptions and count ourselves lucky if it doesn’t happen.

There are definitely 2-3 guys on this roster who, if they were to go down for a length of time, would make it a lot harder to see this as a playoff roster.

Is Wysh's season prediction predicated on there being major injuries to key players? No. It's based on our 111 point team dropping more than 20 points in the standings because of our offseason changes. Walker and Ghost instead of Skjei and Pesce, and Turbo and 1/4 of a season worth of Guentzel leaving. Are those changes on their own going to lose us 10 games?

And your example even makes the opposite point- if we've reached stratospheric levels in the standings the last few seasons *even with several major injuries to major players*, that suggests that our roster is deep and resilient enough to weather a fairly normal level of injuries. You can never rule out a black swan event, but you can't make predictions based on them, either.

We took a step back, sure. But the idea that we're going to go from 111 points to fewer than 90 points based on this offseason is simply not an argument worth taking even remotely seriously. It's overdramatic bullpucky. I know we all love to melt down and overreact to any minor loss, or even a win where we don't look good, but this team was a 1-0 game against the Rangers and a game we effectively didn't contest away from being the absolute best team in the regular season last year. We took a hit, but if you think that that's going to drop us out of the playoffs, you genuinely need to get a grip. Wysh included.

 

[Joe McGrath]

If we miss, our draft pick will still be in the shitty 12-16 range. Better to push for the playoffs with this group, we only get so many tickets with guys like Aho and Slavin.

Definitely haven’t drafted anyone between 12-16 thats really good both times they’ve been in that spot over the last 8 years.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

We are the same offensive team since Trocheck left. The question will be if our defense can hold up to make sure our middle of the road goaltending looks better / survive our offensive lulls.

 

[Svechhammer]

Is Wysh's season prediction predicated on there being major injuries to key players? No. It's based on our 111 point team dropping more than 20 points in the standings because of our offseason changes. Walker and Ghost instead of Skjei and Pesce, and Turbo and 1/4 of a season worth of Guentzel leaving. Are those changes on their own going to lose us 10 games?

And your example even makes the opposite point- if we've reached stratospheric levels in the standings the last few seasons *even with several major injuries to major players*, that suggests that our roster is deep and resilient enough to weather a fairly normal level of injuries. You can never rule out a black swan event, but you can't make predictions based on them, either.

We took a step back, sure. But the idea that we're going to go from 111 points to fewer than 90 points based on this offseason is simply not an argument worth taking even remotely seriously. It's overdramatic bullpucky. I know we all love to melt down and overreact to any minor loss, or even a win where we don't look good, but this team was a 1-0 game against the Rangers and a game we effectively didn't contest away from being the absolute best team in the regular season last year. We took a hit, but if you think that that's going to drop us out of the playoffs, you genuinely need to get a grip. Wysh included.

Not everything is in a vacuum.

If other teams in the division are on their own good enough to grab an additional win over us during the course of the year and we are just a little worse to expect a 5 game drop based on where we were last year, that could end up being 10 more losses and 20 points downswing in the standings

 

[cptjeff]

Not everything is in a vacuum.

If other teams in the division are on their own good enough to grab an additional win over us during the course of the year and we are just a little worse to expect a 5 game drop based on where we were last year, that could end up being 10 more losses and 20 points downswing in the standings

But not every team in the division got better. The Isles and Caps got worse. Columbus, very tragically, got a lot worse. Philly got worse and is potentially in a whole heap of trouble. Pittsburgh is just treading water and trying to hold on as Crosby and Malkin age. And really, the Rangers may be good, but they didn't really get any better. They're just status quo. So New Jersey improved a lot. So what?

And then there's the rest of the league, and the NHL's schedule is quite balanced. We don't play the teams in our division 8 times anymore (thank f***ing god, that shit was boring). We don't play the Rags and Devils enough that it really matters any more than the changes to any other team in the Eastern Conference. We don't even play the Rangers and Devils 10 times combined in a season.

The NHL standings function pretty well as a 32 team system rather than an 8 team system these days. Network effects from playing the Rangers and Devils 4 times each instead of 2 or 3 can be pretty safely dismissed. Especially when those network effects also apply to lots of teams that are stagnating or flailing.

The sky is not falling. A season of hockey is a season of chaos, but it's also a very large sample size and the randomness does usually balance out.

 

[A Star is Burns]

We had shit goaltending for three months and the coach and captain were calling out that players on the team weren't buying in and playing the game the right way. Perhaps that repeats, but I'm guessing we have a better goaltending situation and we moved out or sorted out the other types of problems I mentioned there. It is probably also nice for all involved to have the coach under contract and not having UFAmageddon hanging out there. In spite of those things, we still finished quite easily as one of the better teams in the league. I think some of those things almost certainly being a better situation this year will help offset some of the talent loss as well.

 

[bleedgreen]

It’s an interesting year in our division as I think outside of Cbus everyone is at least as good as they were last year….but easily could be better. I think Philly and Wash are going to have better years, NJ absolutely will. Islanders and Rangers likely stay around the same. We’re the only ones in my book that have a chance to have a notable drop off. I think it’s 50/50 we make the playoffs, but it’s more about the bottom of the division improving than us dropping off a cliff. We may take a step back and those other teams improving are going to be in reach. Could be a real dogfight to make it in down the stretch.

So some anxiety as a Canes fan but probably a fun season to watch.

 

[tarheelhockey]

True, but it's no different for all other teams as well. Injuries to key players would impact their success. I might argue that because of the Canes system, they might be less susceptible to individual injuries than other teams, many who rely on individual performance.

The concern for me is that Defense has been our strength and I'm not sure how this D corps will perform.

That’s a fair point and I don’t think a catastrophic scenario will play out, but it definitely could play out. And despite the one-for-all system we run, I don’t look at this roster and see much room for error on injuries. Let’s say Aho misses 10 games for whatever reason, minor injury or whatever. Who the heck are our top 6 centers? Let’s say Burns is out for whatever reason, who’s our top RD? Walker or Chatfield? It’s just a lot shallower of a roster than it used to be, which puts a huge spotlight on the health of a handful of top-of-the lineup guys (and also on their performance, as we need those guys to play like stars even more than we used to).

I don’t think it’s crazy to look at what we’re calling a 110 point team which lost at least 10 points of talent off the top, think “what does this look like if things break badly for them?”, and see them in the low 90s. Again that wouldn’t be my prediction but it’s not an absurd prediction.

Is Wysh's season prediction predicated on there being major injuries to key players? No. It's based on our 111 point team dropping more than 20 points in the standings because of our offseason changes. Walker and Ghost instead of Skjei and Pesce, and Turbo and 1/4 of a season worth of Guentzel leaving. Are those changes on their own going to lose us 10 games?

And your example even makes the opposite point- if we've reached stratospheric levels in the standings the last few seasons *even with several major injuries to major players*, that suggests that our roster is deep and resilient enough to weather a fairly normal level of injuries. You can never rule out a black swan event, but you can't make predictions based on them, either.

We took a step back, sure. But the idea that we're going to go from 111 points to fewer than 90 points based on this offseason is simply not an argument worth taking even remotely seriously. It's overdramatic bullpucky. I know we all love to melt down and overreact to any minor loss, or even a win where we don't look good, but this team was a 1-0 game against the Rangers and a game we effectively didn't contest away from being the absolute best team in the regular season last year. We took a hit, but if you think that that's going to drop us out of the playoffs, you genuinely need to get a grip. Wysh included.

For context, Wysh’s article was a list of “bold” predictions for each team. He does that article every year and the idea isn’t to speak to probability, but plausible possibility.

If any fanbase knows better than to think they’re an automatic playoff team because of what happened last year, it’s us. The lack of competition in this division will help, but nothing’s gonna be automatic here. Any team can stumble and miss, look at last year’s Devils who thought they were going to be better than their 112 point season and ended up with 81. Shit happens in this league, we’re not immune.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I hope everyone is doing OK with the remnants of Hurricane Helene hitting the Southeast. Naples was hundreds of miles away from the center but yet at one point 25% of the subscribers were without power along with homes/roads by the coast impacted by flooding. My next door neighbor in the Triangle just lost her car plus all of her possessions in a storage locker (they were doing a rehab) from her condo in Naples.

Tying that to hockey....it's natural to be pessimistic given the magnitude of the "seen" fan favorite losses this off season. Negatives are out there but yet we haven't realized the positive offsets yet in the form of Walker, Carrier, Ghost, Roslovic combined with possible/probable improvements by Svetch, Jarvis, KK, Drury.

I was bummed by the loss of Guentzel (it sure was fun watching him play with Jarvis and Aho) but stepping back from the emotion of that loss I realized that the team's core is still solid.

 

[DaveG]

It’s an interesting year in our division as I think outside of Cbus everyone is at least as good as they were last year….but easily could be better. I think Philly and Wash are going to have better years, NJ absolutely will. Islanders and Rangers likely stay around the same. We’re the only ones in my book that have a chance to have a notable drop off. I think it’s 50/50 we make the playoffs, but it’s more about the bottom of the division improving than us dropping off a cliff. We may take a step back and those other teams improving are going to be in reach. Could be a real dogfight to make it in down the stretch.

So some anxiety as a Canes fan but probably a fun season to watch.

I think Washington got better but Philly? I just don't see it. Their goaltending might be the worst in the league and their improvement last year was carried by the accused of Province of Ontario Suspect #3 until his arrest. They fell off hard when they went to Ersson. Makiniemi could easily be the best goalie they have under contract this year. Isles, Pens, and Jackets all got worse.

 

[To Be Determined]

...Walker and Ghost instead of Skjei and Pesce...

Seeing talking heads say this drives my pedantic ass crazy. Skjei and pesce are being replaced by orlov and chatfield, not ghostwalker.

They treat it as this huge drop from skjei/pesce, when the reality is the drop to orlov chatfield isn't nearly as bad as they are presenting.

Ghostwalker should be fine as a third pair. Not as good as orlov/chatfield, but perfectly serviceable.

I don't believe the combined deltas between our 2nd and 3rd pairings from last season to this season add up to the drop we'd see replacing skjei/pesce with ghostwalker.

It is a subtle difference, but those are the little things people use to drive narratives, and it vexes me. I am quite vexed.

 

[Derailed75]

Seeing talking heads say this drives my pedantic ass crazy. Skjei and pesce are being replaced by orlov and chatfield, not ghostwalker.

They treat it as this huge drop from skjei/pesce, when the reality is the drop to orlov chatfield isn't nearly as bad as they are presenting.

Ghostwalker should be fine as a third pair. Not as good as orlov/chatfield, but perfectly serviceable.

I don't believe the combined deltas between our 2nd and 3rd pairings from last season to this season add up to the drop we'd see replacing skjei/pesce with ghostwalker.

It is a subtle difference, but those are the little things people use to drive narratives, and it vexes me. I am quite vexed.

Don't vex TBD, you wouldn't like him when he's vexxed!

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think Washington got better but Philly? I just don't see it. Their goaltending might be the worst in the league and their improvement last year was carried by the accused of Province of Ontario Suspect #3 until his arrest. They fell off hard when they went to Ersson. Makiniemi could easily be the best goalie they have under contract this year. Isles, Pens, and Jackets all got worse.

I'm confused by the Philly love too from some. I think it would take Michkov being one of the best players in the league (which isn't impossible, but still seems unlikely). Their goaltending is suspect. Their D is suspect. They are okay at forward. Torts might drag them to a respectable record again (unless his shelf life is already up, and it could be), and they can probably stick around the bubble again, but I don't see them as some major threat of improvement. They were lucky to stick around as long as they did last season with the rest of the division and the bottom of the playoff race in general being so bad.

 

[NotOpie]

The sky is not falling. A season of hockey is a season of chaos, but it's also a very large sample size and the randomness does usually balance out.

Since when did you take my place as the board optimist.....

So some anxiety as a Canes fan but probably a fun season to watch.

I believe this will be a very fun team to watch. They are faster for sure and feels like they got bigger too.

It’s just a lot shallower of a roster than it used to be, which puts a huge spotlight on the health of a handful of top-of-the lineup guys (and also on their performance, as we need those guys to play like stars even more than we used to).

Here's my two cents.....our backend will be better offensively. Ghost will score notably more than SKjei. Walker will, at worst, double Pesces offensive output. Orlov with the mere fact that he'll see more ice time will likely increase his scoring. Will they be as good defensively? Nope. But the key to our defensive system is less about our blue line and more about the defensive responsiblities of the forwards. If they stick to Rod's game, defensively, we'll be alright.

Goaltending feels like it's more settled. Jarvis and Svech almost certainly take a step forward. Roslovic has a very real chance of replacing Tuevo's scoring and Necas is playing for a developing reputation as a serious scoring threat. This team is going to put up points....lots of them. I expect more 5-2, 6-4, even 7-5 games out of this crew.

I'm also less concerned about the Rangers. Panarin, Trocheck, Zibanejad, and Kreider are all a year older. There's a very real possibility of a bit of regression. Fox remains their only real offensive threat from the back end. And Peter Laviolette is notorious for beginning to lose the room in the 2nd and 3rd years of his tenure.

As far as the rest of the division, New Jersey will be good but that group has a pretty significant injury history. The team I'm most concerned about is Washington. Ovie is going to want to break Gretsky's record this season and his team is going to do everything to help. They got better in the off season, not by a lot, but enough to notice.

In the end, if we can stay healthy, I believe we will compete to be one of the top 2 teams in the division.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Since when did you take my place as the board optimist.....

I believe this will be a very fun team to watch. They are faster for sure and feels like they got bigger too.

Here's my two cents.....our backend will be better offensively. Ghost will score notably more than SKjei. Walker will, at worst, double Pesces offensive output. Orlov with the mere fact that he'll see more ice time will likely increase his scoring. Will they be as good defensively? Nope. But the key to our defensive system is less about our blue line and more about the defensive responsiblities of the forwards. If they stick to Rod's game, defensively, we'll be alright.

Goaltending feels like it's more settled. Jarvis and Svech almost certainly take a step forward. Roslovic has a very real chance of replacing Tuevo's scoring and Necas is playing for a developing reputation as a serious scoring threat. This team is going to put up points....lots of them. I expect more 5-2, 6-4, even 7-5 games out of this crew.

I'm also less concerned about the Rangers. Panarin, Trocheck, Zibanejad, and Kreider are all a year older. There's a very real possibility of a bit of regression. Fox remains their only real offensive threat from the back end. And Peter Laviolette is notorious for beginning to lose the room in the 2nd and 3rd years of his tenure.

As far as the rest of the division, New Jersey will be good but that group has a pretty significant injury history. The team I'm most concerned about is Washington. Ovie is going to want to break Gretsky's record this season and his team is going to do everything to help. They got better in the off season, not by a lot, but enough to notice.

In the end, if we can stay healthy, I believe we will compete to be one of the top 2 teams in the division.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying here, but saying “I agree” a bunch of times makes for a dull post, so I’m going to cherry pick the ones I don’t.

- I think you’re really underrating what Skjei did for us offensively. Ghost might score more as a power play merchant and garbage-shift collector, but that means a lot less to us than Skjei being dangerous at ES against good competition while leaving the soft opportunities open for specialists. Ghost is the specialist, meaning we’re missing the more important component here.

- “Svech almost certainly will take a step forward” is something we’ve been saying since about 2020. He’s still the same 25-40-65 type guy he was back then. His taking a step forward isn’t a certainty… it’s more like he’s running out of time to develop into something more before he settles into “just” that guy.

- We can hope for the best from Roslovic, but a meh version of Teuvo scored 8 more points last season than Jack’s career high. We didn’t get enough out of TT in his under-60 point mode, and it would be a pretty high expectation for Roslovic to match that. Color me skeptical that he’s going to meaningfully move the needle.

I do think Jarvis and Necas are the guys to watch this year. If they take it to another level, it changes things quite a lot, and they should be getting every opportunity to prove they can do it. If we can finally achieve some goaltending stability it will help, and Kochetkov is getting there. Walker is going to be a wild card on defense. The biggest issue for me is that we‘ve simply lost a ton of depth at both ends of the ice, so if we have issues with injuries or underperformance we can’t hide it. To me this feels like maybe the 4th-6th best team in the conference IF we don’t have exacerbating issues.

 

[cptjeff]

Since when did you take my place as the board optimist.....

I'm always an optimist in the offseason. I only start melting down and preaching fire and doom when we're a few games into the season.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Hasn’t seen this before (my wife saw it). Kk has switched hands in this preseason:

“with Kotkaniemi changing his stick-handling to his right hand. The question now will focus on the three’s performances throughout the rest of preseason and how much, if at all, can translate into the regular season”

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Recap: Welcome to the Preseason

TAMPA, Florida: The Carolina Hurricanes have taken their first win of the 2024-2025 preseason, with a last-minute stunner against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.

www.yardbarker.com

 

[tarheelhockey]

Hasn’t seen this before (my wife saw it). Kk has switched hands in this preseason:

“with Kotkaniemi changing his stick-handling to his right hand. The question now will focus on the three’s performances throughout the rest of preseason and how much, if at all, can translate into the regular season”

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Recap: Welcome to the Preseason

TAMPA, Florida: The Carolina Hurricanes have taken their first win of the 2024-2025 preseason, with a last-minute stunner against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.

www.yardbarker.com

This is some April Fool’s type of thing, right?

Edit: it looks like just on faceoffs? That would be more reasonable.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Well done Canes. Western NC was hit hard and needs support:

https://x.com/i/web/status/1840543202773983598

 

[Lempo]

The NHL/IIHF transfer agreement has every now and then got a mention re: some European prospects. I don't still know whether it is actually a public document, but be it here or there, the Finnish press did an article that gives some particulars:

- The current agreement is 4+4 years, starting in 2022. The fees will go up for the latter period starting from season 2026-27.

- The transfer fee payable for every prospect who signs a NHL ELC is $285,000.

- In Finland the fee is split even among the teams that had the prospect for the four previous seasons. If the prospect has been playing in more than one country, the team of the latest season gets 40 percent and the others 20 percent. (This has been an issue in the past where some Finnboys were drafted from an SHL team and the Swedish hockey association got all the loot).​

​

- The team whose player gets drafted to NHL is paid $35,000 for a first round pick and $20,000 for an other round pick.

- On top of this since 2022 there has been an additional player development bonus paid to each country according to how many of its players plays at least 30 games during a NHL season. It's estimated to be ca. €10,000-20,000 per player.

- The money goes to the team who owns the player's rights, not to a team who has had the player playing for them on a loan.


In 2024, the Finnish SML teams will be paid transfer monies as follows (USD, not including the player development bonus):

HIFK 667 000

• Juha Jääskä 4/4 285 000
• Aleksanteri Kaskimäki 4/4 285 000
• Jere Innala 20% 57 000
• Aron Kiviharju 20 000
• Eemil Vinni 20 000

TPS 502 500

• Emil Hemming 2/4 142 500
• Kalle Väisänen 4/4 285 000
• Emil Hemming 35 000
• Aatos Koivu 20 000
• Kasper Pikkarainen 20 000

Pelicans 456 000

• Rasmus Kumpulainen 60% 171 000
• Aatu Jämsen 4/4 285 000

JYP 396 250

• Jesse Pulkkinen 4/4 285 000
• Joni Jurmo 1/4 71 250
• Jesse Pulkkinen 20 000
• Veeti Louhivaara 20 000

HPK 382 000

• Kim Saarinen 4/4 285 000
• Jere Innala 20% 57 000
• Kim Saarinen 20 000
• Erik Wallenius 20 000

KalPa 382 000

• Oliver Kapanen 4/4 285 000
• Henrik Tikkanen 20% 57 000
• Joona Saarelainen 20 000
• Niilopekka Muhonen 20 000

Tappara 377 000

• Niko Huuhtanen 20% 57 000
• Konsta Helenius 4/4 285 000
• Konsta Helenius 35 000

Jukurit 370 500

• Niko Huuhtanen 60% 171 000
• Joni Jurmo 2/4 142 500
• Waltteri Ignatjew 20% 57 000

Kärpät 305 000

• Arttu Hyry 4/4 285 000
• Markus Loponen 20 000

KooKoo 305 000

• Jesse Nurmi 4/4 285 000
• Veeti Väisänen 20 000

Ilves 282 250

• Joni Jurmo 1/4 71 250
• Jakub Malek 60% 171 000
• Ondrej Kos 20 000
• Sebastian Soini 20 000

Kiekko-Espoo 219 500

• Emil Hemming 2/4 142 500
• Waltteri Ignatjew 20% 57 000
• Heikki Ruohonen 20 000

Ässät: 0
Lukko: 0
SaiPa: 0
Sport: 0

Source:

Yksi SM-liigaseura niittää hurjat rahat NHL:stä – neljä jää täysin tyhjin käsin

SM-liigaseurojen saamissa NHL-korvauksissa on roimaa hajontaa.

www.is.fi

 

[cptjeff]

- The team whose player gets drafted to NHL is paid $35,000 for a first round pick and $20,000 for an other round pick.

Huh, didn't realize they did this. Wonder what the US development system would look like if there was a similar fee arrangement in place for junior and NCAA teams. Would probably help a lot.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Alexei Kovalev: 'Slafkovsky Needs More Consistentcy, Demidov Must Be More Than Handsome'

Ex-Habs player Alexei Kovalev talks to RG about Montreal Canadiens, and forwards Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov

rg.org

"They have a lot of potential," Kovalev said. "Svechnikov is especially good. He has excellent skills. He has a cheeky style of play. Sometimes, he spent too much energy on unnecessary things. We adjusted that a little. I think he will surprise everyone this year."

 

[Svechhammer]

- “Svech almost certainly will take a step forward” is something we’ve been saying since about 2020. He’s still the same 25-40-65 type guy he was back then. His taking a step forward isn’t a certainty… it’s more like he’s running out of time to develop into something more before he settles into “just” that guy.

Yeah I mean, I absolutely want Svech to take that next step, but we've been waiting on it for a while and its not happened, yet. Sure, there are many excuses to why it hasn't happened, but at what point do you just say he is what he is until he shows he's more than that.

Speaking of things that are said just about every year, and the player is still the same guy he's always been....

I do think.... Necas are the guys to watch this year. If they take it to another level, it changes things quite a lot, and they should be getting every opportunity to prove they can do it.