Lempo
Recovering Future Considerations Truther
- Feb 23, 2014
- 27,726
- 86,697
Raanta's new team in Switzerland is Geneve-Servette.
News & Notes XLIV: Revenge of the Seth
- Thread starter cptjeff
- Start date
Raanta's new team in Switzerland is Geneve-Servette.
With a major hurricane heading towards Florida’s west coast or big bend it’s good that the game is tonight versus later in the week
Svechhammer
THIS is hockey?
- Jun 8, 2017
- 25,583
- 93,270
Brind'Amour wearing #77
Name and number that I wouldn't have expected to see paired this time last year
Name and number that I wouldn't have expected to see paired this time last year
CandyCanes
Caniac turned Jerkiac
- Jan 8, 2015
- 7,683
- 26,800
cptjeff
Reprehensible User
Seth Jarvis, ladies and gentlemen. Jarvising around the President of Finland and somehow running into Teemu Selanne in a bar.
Lempo
Recovering Future Considerations Truther
- Feb 23, 2014
- 27,726
- 86,697
Shenanigans. Prez Stubb's daddy-o Göran Stubb has worked for four decades as the Director of European Scouting for the NHL, until 2023. I really doubt this was the chance encounter they present it to be.
Loved this line:
"I'm worried about the country of Finland this year though," Waddell had said. "They've never seen a Jarvis. Finland might be a little different when he leaves."
cptjeff
Reprehensible User
It might have been entirely arranged in one of those conversations in Finnish that Jarvis didn't understand. If I'm KK I don't bother telling him either, I just take him to the bar and wait to see his face.
hblueridgegal
We'll bounce back
He is probably wrong but.....if his view is right & that we are on the cusp of another upswing the following year then getting another high draft pick to fill the high end pipeline wouldn't be bad (it would just make my tickets this year meh). I'd sign up for a Devils Silayev type pick.....
CandyCanes
Caniac turned Jerkiac
- Jan 8, 2015
- 7,683
- 26,800
I do have us as a slight bubble team this year in my mind. I think we finish as a 6th or 7th seed in the East.
But this is the year where a shit start or finish could have us on the outside looking in.
- Dec 6, 2011
- 12,914
- 41,979
I'm guessin we still finish in a similar range to what we've been. I'm guessing about 108-110.
Nikishin Go Boom
Russian Bulldozer Consultent
- Jul 31, 2017
- 23,708
- 55,334
Played at a 100 point pace the last 4 seasons? Are we just averaging and not accounting for shorter seasons?
- Oct 31, 2007
- 40,715
- 47,534
It’s tough, because I’m not sure where we end up, and it’s not hard to get caught in the slippery.
Assume that the Rangers stay on top, and the Devils offseason improvements and our relatively weak offseason push us to 3rd in the division. Is it out of line to guess that a team like Washington, Philly, or the Islanders make a surprise push this year and leapfrog us for that position? And if we’re a bubble team, is guessing that we miss the playoffs really that much of an insult? Or is it saying “Oh, we picked the other side of that 50*50 shot.”
Assume that the Rangers stay on top, and the Devils offseason improvements and our relatively weak offseason push us to 3rd in the division. Is it out of line to guess that a team like Washington, Philly, or the Islanders make a surprise push this year and leapfrog us for that position? And if we’re a bubble team, is guessing that we miss the playoffs really that much of an insult? Or is it saying “Oh, we picked the other side of that 50*50 shot.”
Yeah, this is about where I am too. Lots of what-ifs this year (but like every other team tbf), and every season there's at least one team that stumbles due to injuries, down years from key guys, or both. Could be our year for that.
Or maybe not. But that's why we watch.
I’ve noted this before but a re-cap
Offensively, we are just missing Skjei’s, TT and a small window of Guentzel’s contribution from LY.
It’s quite possible that an uptick in production from Jarvis, Necas, KK, Svetch combined with some contribution from Ghost-walker and Roslovic/Carrier offsets those losses and perhaps produces more.
Bigger question mark for me is D with 1/2 of our core either gone (Skeji-Pesce) or aging out (Burns) and of course the voodoo of goaltending (edit: our D will be smaller but will be faster this year).
I’m cautiously optimistic but as noted if we have a downturn the benefit is a high draft pick adding to our next run.
Offensively, we are just missing Skjei’s, TT and a small window of Guentzel’s contribution from LY.
It’s quite possible that an uptick in production from Jarvis, Necas, KK, Svetch combined with some contribution from Ghost-walker and Roslovic/Carrier offsets those losses and perhaps produces more.
Bigger question mark for me is D with 1/2 of our core either gone (Skeji-Pesce) or aging out (Burns) and of course the voodoo of goaltending (edit: our D will be smaller but will be faster this year).
I’m cautiously optimistic but as noted if we have a downturn the benefit is a high draft pick adding to our next run.
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What is clear to me is that Rod's system is going to have to depend more on speed than it ever has. Also, I think there's as much, if not more offensive capability coming from the back end this season. To me, the key is going to be Kotkaniemi...if he is the player from 2 years ago, then we'll be fine. If not, and nobody picks up that slack (Jarvis did last season), then we won't. I still don't really see us missing the playoffs, however.
Svechhammer
THIS is hockey?
- Jun 8, 2017
- 25,583
- 93,270
I have said it a few times this summer that I would not be surprised to see us miss the playoffs this year. Mainly, we're weaker in the forward lines than we were at the start of last year, there's going to be a learning curve for Walker and Gost to get going, and all of that could combine for us really spinning our tires for a bit to start the year. Philly with Michkov, Washington with what they brought in, Pitt and NYI just refusing to ever go away and NJ loading up could be a perfect recipe for us to take a step back while everyone else takes a step forward and we fall on the wrong end of the cut line. And that's just inside the division.
We are not a sure thing this year. But, I firmly believe we could end up being better 2 years from now than we were 2 years ago. Our future is very bright, even if the immediate future might be a disappointment
We are not a sure thing this year. But, I firmly believe we could end up being better 2 years from now than we were 2 years ago. Our future is very bright, even if the immediate future might be a disappointment
Nikishin Go Boom
Russian Bulldozer Consultent
- Jul 31, 2017
- 23,708
- 55,334
Generally interested to know how we are weaker at forward this season compared to start of last year.
Turbo came off a 37 point performance
Jarvis had a sophomore slump
Necas was pretty good
Noesen was good in his role
Now we have 30+ goal Jarvis
37 point roslovic
Carrier
Maybe good necas
Robinson to replace fast
16+ month recovery Svech instead of 7+ month recovery Svech.
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
If we miss, our draft pick will still be in the shitty 12-16 range. Better to push for the playoffs with this group, we only get so many tickets with guys like Aho and Slavin.
Nikishin Go Boom
Russian Bulldozer Consultent
- Jul 31, 2017
- 23,708
- 55,334
The canes have played at a 70% points pace the last 4 seasons or 114 per season. Saying they have played at a 100 point pace is misrepresentation. 60% points pace is the playoff line, typically.
cptjeff
Reprehensible User
We'll be weaker this year than last, but barring major injuries, missing the playoffs is an utterly absurd prediction. I think we're comfortably around 100 points and 4-6 in the conference. Not elite but not bubble, either. Going from a one-nothing game away from the President's Trophy to missing the playoffs isn't just a step back, it's off a cliff. We're very much in 'step back' territory here at least on paper.
There's a decent argument that we aren't. Four forwards from game one last year are gone - bunting, turbo, noesen, and fast. Svech didn't play until the end of october, so if he is truly 100% to start this year that will be huge.
Bunting never quite fit. We'll miss turbo but is he starting a decline? (Maybe, but i doubt that we'll see one if he plays next to bedard, honestly.) New guys seem to be decent fast/noesen replacements.
If every team in the league stays perfectly healthy, we are still a playoff team. Injuries are the wild card. But hell, if shesterkin has a season ending injury early enough, the rangers probably miss imo so it is all a crapshoot.
As long as i can be a smartass on here, it's all good.
- Dec 6, 2011
- 12,914
- 41,979
Let me start by saying, I ain't gonna read all that. I'm happy for you tho. Or sorry that happened.
I'd still kinda break it down something like this:
Top tier:
Any of these teams could have a magic season and hop to the top tier (not just be top three in the divison because it blows like last season, but actually good), just not what I'd consider a likely outcome.
I'd still kinda break it down something like this:
Top tier:
- Rangers - Barring anything crazy, they make the playoffs pretty easily and have a great shot to win the division. Some people act like it's a given that they will be just as good as last year, but I don't think it'd be insane to see them slip a few points, say back to like the 107 they hit the year before, because last year felt like one of those many things go right years.
- Canes - This is still a talented team and in spite of what we lost, I think the replacements we brought in fit the system well. I think our defense is still talented and that the learning curve, while certainly a thing, is a bit overstated. I've posted the list of previous D corps before, but while me might be a bit less talented at the top than some of our teams during this run, we likely have a better overall top six than several of the previous teams, so I think it will balance out a bit. I also don't think our goaltending will be quite as chaotic as it was last year. Last year's team was probably even better than it turned out to be but was tanked often during the first three months by the goaltending situation. So, I still think this team is going to be pretty damn good and winning the divsion would not shock me. I think the coach, system, and culture having been in palce account for a ton in the regular season.
- Devils - I may get burned on this one, as I thought they were in this tier last year, and they blew up in a bad way. I do think they have a lot of talent and find their way back to this tier. They could finish ahead of us, but I'm not as convinced as some. Last year was probably too big of a fall, but the previous year was probably a bigger leap than they really had taken. I do think they already have, and likely will have more, injury issues with some key players. And while they improved their goalies, I'm not sold on Markstrom and Allen taking them to some amazing tier of goaltending. I could be convinced they belong in the bubble tier until they prove it again.
Any of these teams could have a magic season and hop to the top tier (not just be top three in the divison because it blows like last season, but actually good), just not what I'd consider a likely outcome.
- Philly and Washington - I tend to lump these guys together. Last season, I think they both finished a little above their actual level of play. Most of that was a product of a bunch of teams that acted like they didn't want it at the bottom of the playoff race. I like Washington's offseason, but I think they probably put their floor closer to what they were last season, but the ceiling honestly still doesn't seem much higher than that. Philly, Torts might do an amazing job again, or things could implode. Even if he does an amazing job, they still don't have the talent top to bottom that a lot of teams around them do and their goaltending just isn't that good.
- Isles - They feel like they have been. Not talented enough. Certainly on the bubble and could make it. Does Roy taking over for the full season help or does he lose the new coach bump he got last year? Is Sorokin going to be the bad version of himself or is he going to have difficulties with injury this year as it seems he could? You look at that roster and it's tough to even figure out what the identity is or should be.
- Penguins - Still feels like they are more than likely on the outside looking in. Perhaps they get a PP bounceback and continue having more luck than they should healthwise with some aging guys, but I'm skeptical. While Sullivan is a good coach, he feels like his welcome could have run out years ago, but they are stuck with him. The goalies still feel hard to trust.
- Sorry Columbus.
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
I don’t think it’s utterly absurd, because you can’t bar major injuries. There are almost always major injuries. Just within the past few years we’ve lost Svech long term, Andersen long term, Pacioretty altogether, Slavin for the playoffs. We’re already missing Fast to a potential career-ender. May as well expect significant disruptions and count ourselves lucky if it doesn’t happen.
There are definitely 2-3 guys on this roster who, if they were to go down for a length of time, would make it a lot harder to see this as a playoff roster.
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