Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

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ninetyeight

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Walsh has been pretty productive in the AHL since he got there.
And Cormier is a really good prospect

Well if @StevenToddIves is to be trusted both of these guys are disasters defensively and unlikely to become reliable NHL defensemen. And some would put Ty into the same category. But like I said Gamescore is very offensive heavy metric.
 

SteveCangialosi123

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I don't know, there's some defensively questionable dman in that list. And Jiricek is dominating Nemec. I know GS is pretty offensive heavy stat (though it does count stuff like corsi against and blocked shots), but shouldn't a #2 pick who was pretty dominant in international games (against men!!11!) do even better? Or does the Utica team just suck this year?
I think it’s time to hit the panic button. He may never close that 0.07 game score gap 11 games into his AHL career :sarcasm:

If he was incredible to start or terrible, it wouldn’t really matter very much this early in such a small sample.
 

ninetyeight

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I think it’s time to hit the panic button. He may never close that 0.07 game score gap 11 games into his AHL career :sarcasm:

If he was incredible to start or terrible, it wouldn’t really matter very much this early in such a small sample.

I actually think Nemec might look better than most these guys in the NHL where the game is much more structured and everyone does their job. I haven't been able to watch any AHL games so I don't know how he's been, other than his production is fine. I just think that this gamescore list doesn't mean much with all the names on there and like you said short sample size. Unless he was absolutely dominating it, like top5 defender in the league.

Also I wanna add that I'm pretty patient with prospects, but some guys here are expecting Nemec to make the big team next year to replace Severson. Which is possible, but I think it's more likely he still has to play next year in the A.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Well if @StevenToddIves is to be trusted both of these guys are disasters defensively and unlikely to become reliable NHL defensemen. And some would put Ty into the same category. But like I said Gamescore is very offensive heavy metric.
I wouldn't call Cormier a "disaster", per se, in terms of his defense. He's not a Poirier or Grans or Honka in that he has pretty solid sense and compete defensively, it's just not his bread and butter and he can be overmatched defensively in several ways, and his chance-taking offensively also leads to high-danger chances against.

Walsh is also a similar player-type. Like Cormier, he is routinely overmatched in board and crease battles, in addition to often being caught out of position when trying to do too much offensively.

I am fine with this type of defenseman if they have near-elite or elite offensive potential. I'm fine with an NHL defenseman giving up chances against if they're also producing big-time numbers for their own team. The problem with Cormier and Walsh is they lack the offensive upside of a true top-pairing NHL defender -- maybe they can hit 40 points and QB a 2PP at the NHL level, but is that really worth it considering the struggles in the defensive zone?

I'd rather have a Brett Pesce or John Marino scoring 25-30 points while consistently bottling up the opposing offense than a Will Butcher scoring 43 points while giving up a ton of opportunities against. That's just my philosophy in building a winning blueline. It's ok to have a chance-taking all-offense guy on the blueline, but only if he's elite. If John Carlson is not the best defender around, I don't much care because the guy has put up 68 or more points in 3 of the last four years -- and also, Carlson doesn't exactly stink defensively, it's just not his bread and butter. But let's face the obvious that, unlike John Carlson, Cormier or Walsh (or Grans or Poirier) simply don't have the ability to put up 55 points at the NHL level, much less 75.

Yes, I would include Ty Smith in this category. I thought at one point he might have top-pairing type offensive upside and the ability to become a passable defender, but his tremendous regression last season puts doubts in my mind whether he will ever come close to his upside -- which incidentally, should be rated higher than Cormier or Walsh.

I would say the biggest reason for the Devils improvement this season, after all, is replacing Ty Smith with John Marino. Right now the Devils have one of the best blue lines in the conference, featuring two standout shut-down guys (Marino and Sigenthlaer) one elite offensive guy who is also solid defensively (Hamilton), and one very good defender who is also ok offensively (Graves). If there are areas which could be improved it's with Smith -- so-so defensively and nonexistent offensively but with a good deal of physicality -- and Severson -- good but not great offensively and ok but erratic defensively.

As a side not, with all of Severson's warts, I'd say right now he's just above the talent ceiling for either Cormier or Walsh. Essentially this is saying that, with Cormier or Walsh, you're ultimate hope is they one day become almost-but-not-quite as effective as Damon Severson is right now. I'd say their offensive abilities are on par with Severson, but Severson's ability to hold his own physically in tight battles against NHL forwards is something Cormier or Walsh will never be able to emulate.
 

Devs3cups

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I’m not too good with the Elite Prospects tool to compare players in the same league at the same age, but seems like there aren’t too many D-men that played at 18 in the AHL ever from what I can see. The most notables ones I see are Seider, Drysdale, Sandin, Kylington, Lindholm, Reilly and Liljegren. Am I reading/doing this right lol?


If that’s the case, I think a D-man at this age holding his own and playing well in the A from all reports is a good sign.
 
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Ripshot 43

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I’m not too good with the Elite Prospects tool to compare players in the same league at the same age, but seems like there aren’t too many D-men that played at 18 in the AHL ever from what I can see. The most notables ones I see are Seider, Drysdale, Sandin, Kylington, Lindholm, Reilly and Liljegren. Am I reading/doing this right lol?


If that’s the case, I think a D-man at this age holding his own and playing well in the A from all reports is a good sign.
Nah, there was that one guy who wrote an article saying he was struggling and from the looks of it, it was just because he wasn’t putting up numbers yet and the writer wasn’t actually viewing games.
 
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Devs3cups

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Nah, there was that one guy who wrote an article saying he was struggling and from the looks of it, it was just because he wasn’t putting up numbers yet and the writer wasn’t actually viewing games.
Pretty much. I remember reading that with a huge question mark. To me Nemec looked real good in the prospects camp and the pre-season, and I watched all his games. Not sure what his “reports” were.
 
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PKs Broken Stick

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I don't think there's any particular reason to.

Perhaps, but I really would rather they pair Luke with Marino, which would leave Smith and....someone on the 3rd pair. There's going to be 2 spots available, with Luke most likely taking one of those. This is just right now though, perhaps they explore a trade for a d-man with not much term left or they sign a vet to a 1 year deal, or one of our 500 d-man prospects (not Luke or Nemec) is actually ready next season.
 

Devs3cups

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Has there been any confirmation of Simon going to the WJC? I assume the answer is yes, just haven’t seen any confirmation.
 
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BomaLightDevils

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Perhaps, but I really would rather they pair Luke with Marino, which would leave Smith and....someone on the 3rd pair. There's going to be 2 spots available, with Luke most likely taking one of those. This is just right now though, perhaps they explore a trade for a d-man with not much term left or they sign a vet to a 1 year deal, or one of our 500 d-man prospects (not Luke or Nemec) is actually ready next season.
Luke in the ahl wouldn’t that be the best move.
In the “new” era of NJD we haven’t put a D-man straight to the Nhl if I remember correctly.
I hope the let Luke play a year with nemec in ahl.

2024/25 is the season I hope we see them win their roster spot full time.
 

youryeah

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Luke in the ahl wouldn’t that be the best move.
In the “new” era of NJD we haven’t put a D-man straight to the Nhl if I remember correctly.
I hope the let Luke play a year with nemec in ahl.

2024/25 is the season I hope we see them win their roster spot full time.
the trend we've seen with top college players who have success in the NHL is 2 years in college -> straight to the NHL. think we see the same with luke
 

Hisch13r

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Perhaps, but I really would rather they pair Luke with Marino, which would leave Smith and....someone on the 3rd pair. There's going to be 2 spots available, with Luke most likely taking one of those. This is just right now though, perhaps they explore a trade for a d-man with not much term left or they sign a vet to a 1 year deal, or one of our 500 d-man prospects (not Luke or Nemec) is actually ready next season.

He's not even great in the AHL. They'll find a body if need be and it won't be Nemec.
 

devilsblood

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Luke in the ahl wouldn’t that be the best move.
In the “new” era of NJD we haven’t put a D-man straight to the Nhl if I remember correctly.
I hope the let Luke play a year with nemec in ahl.

2024/25 is the season I hope we see them win their roster spot full time.
A year of Luke in the AHL? That sounds doubtful.

I think Luke not playing more then a couple games this season in NHL is a pretty big pivot on expectations. I'd be pretty surprised if he is not on the team to start next year.
 

Devs3cups

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Very interesting Slovakian article about Simon, the WJC and his time in the AHL posted yesterday. Transalation is from Google, so I apologize:

Simon Nemec's column: we want to improve our reputation at the 20s

Source.
Yesterday 17:00 | Juro Slafkovský may have read my previous column and entered his conscience, because he now regularly writes me back on messages. He's better off than Filip Meshar, who must have changed his number in Canada.

The boys and I have already talked about the under-20 championship. I hope they'll let me leave the club. They don't even have a serious reason why I can't go to it. I want to help Slovakia to a successful result and repair our reputation after the summer. Maybe there will be a chance for "Slafka" too, although probably not before. With him we would be great, but even without him we will have a quality team.

I'm happy in the AHL, I've played enough games. I haven't played a power play in the last five. The coaches told me to focus on defense. They know I'm good offensively. I play every shorthanded. Maybe it's a little bit of psychological games, because the last time I didn't play power play was my first year in Nitra. I guess they want to see how I can handle it.


I'm not surprised that New Jersey continues to pedal so well. You could already feel it after the preseason. The important thing is to make the playoffs. It was Thanksgiving recently, but we flew to Charlotte then. We had dinner together later. We also had turkey. It tasted like our meatloaf since we ate it with mashed potatoes, which I thought was odd.

I watch World Cup soccer games intensely when I can. I don't catch the first one on any given day because it's at five in the morning, but I watch the others intently if I can. It works out for me. It's a strange championship where anyone can win against anyone, which is better for impartial fans. I'm rooting for Portugal as they have quite a few Manchester United players playing there. I hope Cristiano Ronaldo shows how he still has it. He is taking it differently in the national team, he already showed great emotion in the first game.

I'm sorry that Nitra lost five games in a row in the league. The guys are not playing badly, but the league is very balanced. After one or two wins they can be back in the top six.
Focus on defense for Simon apparently so not a lot of PP time. Interesting.
 

MasterofGrond

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Anybody thinking Luke won't be in the NHL full time next season to start (and for the full year barring some truly insanely bad defensive miscues) is dreaming I think. We had his brother up at 18 and Luke is gonna be 2 years older, bigger, and every bit the skater hughes is. I get defense has more responsibilities to learn, but he'll be up and getting sheltered minutes (if necessary).
 

forceten

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So what is the current thinking - especially from our Utica-based posters - on Nemec? If he really is being asked to play more defensive minutes, how has he looked in that role? People have focused on the points and I think expected close to PPG and he's not there, but if he's not getting PP time I'm assuming he's also out there against opponent top lines ?
 

devilsblood

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Very interesting Slovakian article about Simon, the WJC and his time in the AHL posted yesterday. Transalation is from Google, so I apologize:


Focus on defense for Simon apparently so not a lot of PP time. Interesting.
Ya someone said Nemec is on the top PK unit. Not being on the PP is new, and kind of surprising, though I guess Walsh gets the run of it there, and it does explain why the offensive #'s have been underwhelming for Nemec thus far.

All good in my book, if Nemec can play PK and take that burden off an over 30 Hamilton that benefits the team.

On the other end of the ice, Nemec might get some 2nd unit pp in the near/mid term in NJ, but unlikely he runs the top unit for a bunch of years if ever.
 

Devs3cups

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So what is the current thinking - especially from our Utica-based posters - on Nemec? If he really is being asked to play more defensive minutes, how has he looked in that role? People have focused on the points and I think expected close to PPG and he's not there, but if he's not getting PP time I'm assuming he's also out there against opponent top lines ?
Asking an 18 year-old D-man to be PPG (or even close to it) in a full AHL season is a gigantic ask. I honestly don’t know if that has been done ever, nevermind in the “modern” era. The most recent top D-man I can remember playing in the AHL in his D+1 season is Seider, he was at 0.44 PPG (22 points in 49 games) and they had a seemingly better team than Utica does this year. It’s a big challenge for young D-men.

Nemec, from what I’ve read, has been good on a bad team. He has one of the best +/- on the team mostly playing in tough situations. Management really wants him to focus on his defensive game. The offense is there, we’ve seen it in the pre-season, the scrimmages but also on the international stage and in Slovakia. I’m glad he’s spending time working on the defensive side of his game to be a true all-round D-man.

His game score is also good for an 18-year old playing in a tough league. It’s been posted a few pages back I believe.
 
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HBK27

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Jack has Ty's old bedroom just waiting for Luke to move into come April when Michigan's season is over. I can't see him spending any time in the AHL.

As for Nemec, that's interesting he's not on the PP but makes sense. Focus on defense right now - no need to really develop on the PP right now, especially with Hamilton and Hughes higher in the pecking order in NJ. Only thing that sucks about it is that it may be hurting the team performance not having him out there, but it is what it is.
 

imMagnum

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Very happy the Devils are putting him in a defense first role. His offense has always been solid. It's his defense that was extremely concerning pre-draft. Pre-draft, when he was defending in the DZone, he wouldn't engage the play until his team had the puck and they could transition. Sounds like the Devils are forcing him into a role where he has to engage the play while defending, which is perfect.

I think of Ruff when he says he believes more offense is generated by playing better defense. If the Devils can drill that mindset into Nemec, Nemec is going to be a fantastic defender, as he will have more opportunities to utilize his terrific offensive strength.
 

Forge

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I’m not too good with the Elite Prospects tool to compare players in the same league at the same age, but seems like there aren’t too many D-men that played at 18 in the AHL ever from what I can see. The most notables ones I see are Seider, Drysdale, Sandin, Kylington, Lindholm, Reilly and Liljegren. Am I reading/doing this right lol?


If that’s the case, I think a D-man at this age holding his own and playing well in the A from all reports is a good sign.

I really like quanthockey for stuff like this. I haven't noticed any major errors or anything, and you can separate by age, league, position. May be a little easier if EP is a pain in the ass

 
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