Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

[Alex NJD]

Nemec is still growing on me, especially after considering how hard it is to put together a top tier defense unit

Look at the top 4 of the last 3 cup wins
Hedman - Top 2 pick
McDonagh - Blockbuster trade, cost a lot of assets to get
Sergachev - Recent top 10 pick who was acquired trading a top 3 pick
Cernak - Great scouting by Tampa to get him in a trade for Bishop when he was a recent 2nd rounder in the OHL

Makar - Top 5 pick
Toews - Highway robbery trade
Byram - Top 5 pick they got from another trade steal
Girard - More great trading / scouting, recent 2nd round pick at the time as well
Manson/Johnson filled in for Girard and saw their ice-time increase post Girard injury
Manson - Cost a 1st rounder at the deadline
Johnson - Acquired so damn long ago

It's really difficult to put together solid contending top 4s. Both these teams needed top picks and to win a couple trades to put it all together. Colorado especially had not one but two of the best trades in recent history to build their top 4.

We already kind of got our lucky add with Siegs looking like a phenomenal defensive defenseman that cost us near nothing, and adding Hamilton in FA to boot. Luke Hughes it hopefully a cornerstone Dman and Nemec is another potential cornerstone at that last top 4 spot. Hoping Smith or someone else develops into that guy would be way too wishful thinking. Adding another via FA or trade would be difficult too. Picking Nemec was likely the best possible avenue towards building the defensive core of a real contender.

 

[Devil made me do it]

People who are down on Nemec probably did not watch him at the WC. They are going to be pleasantly surprised by how good this kid is once he steps on the ice wearing red and black. You need to watch him play shift by shift in an entire game instead of seeing selective highlights on youtube. Scott Wheeler had him as the 2nd best player in the entire draft and I have read countless posts here from other team fans who believe Nemec might end up having the best career of anyone in this draft class.

 

[glenwo2]

How about that Nemec kid?

Who's that?

We're talking about Gaudreau here.

Stay on topic!!

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

How about that Nemec kid?

I liked the pick when we made it and I like it even more when I think about the future of this blue line. We can have Hamilton, Luke, and Nemec all on different pairings as the two youngins break into the league. The offense will be incredible. Need to find some more Siegenthalers to pair with those guys.

 

[Devs3cups]

Truth.

Unfortunately, it is what it is.

Nemec is a Devils and we just have to now sit and PRAY that this choice by Fitz doesn't come back to bite us HARD....

As has been reported and mentioned a few times, Nemec wouldn’t have been there at 5.

 

[My3Sons]

I liked the pick when we made it and I like it even more when I think about the future of this blue line. We can have Hamilton, Luke, and Nemec all on different pairings as the two youngins break into the league. The offense will be incredible. Need to find some more Siegenthalers to pair with those guys.

They tried to draft a couple of Siegenthalers later in the draft

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I liked the pick when we made it and I like it even more when I think about the future of this blue line. We can have Hamilton, Luke, and Nemec all on different pairings as the two youngins break into the league. The offense will be incredible. Need to find some more Siegenthalers to pair with those guys.

Okhotiuk

And maybe Bahl

 

[glenwo2]

As has been reported and mentioned a few times, Nemec wouldn’t have been there at 5.

Which also means Fitz was hell-bent on drafting Nemec - Shane Wright be damned - from the get-go as soon as Slaf was off the board.

And anyway, as I "reported", I'm going to hope this decision doesn't come back to bite the Devils HARD.

 

[Devs3cups]

Which also means Fitz was hell-bent on drafting Nemec - Shane Wright be damned - from the get-go as soon as Slaf was off the board.

And anyway, as I "reported", I'm going to hope this doesn't come back to bite the Devils HARD.

Well, yeah, if he was 2nd on his board after Slaf, he wasn’t intending on drafting Wright, since he wasn’t in his top 2.

I’m hoping too, cause that’s all we can do with prospects. Nemec is one of, if not the, safest or highest floor guy in this draft though.

 

[Forge]

Which also means Fitz was hell-bent on drafting Nemec - Shane Wright be damned - from the get-go as soon as Slaf was off the board.

And anyway, as I "reported", I'm going to hope this decision doesn't come back to bite the Devils HARD.

On the bright side, I think Wright was far more furious at Montreal than us, so if he becomes a star, he's going to spend all that pent up rage on the Habs.

 

[Devs3cups]

On the bright side, I think Wright was far more furious at Montreal than us, so if he becomes a star, he's going to spend all that pent up rage on the Habs.

Super concerning to me that MTL and ARI passed on Wright given their extreme lack of depth at C.

 

[glenwo2]

Well, yeah, if he was 2nd on his board after Slaf, he wasn’t intending on drafting Wright, since he wasn’t in his top 2.

I’m hoping too, cause that’s all we can do with prospects. Nemec is one of, if not the, safest or highest floor guy in this draft though.

From your lips to God's ears, my friend.

I hope Nemec turns into a true Franchise Defenseman.

It would make me look back at this draft the same way I look back at the Nico/Patrick draft : With amusement that I was once again made to eat crow.

 

[RSeen]

Nemec is still growing on me, especially after considering how hard it is to put together a top tier defense unit

Look at the top 4 of the last 3 cup wins
Hedman - Top 2 pick
McDonagh - Blockbuster trade, cost a lot of assets to get
Sergachev - Recent top 10 pick who was acquired trading a top 3 pick
Cernak - Great scouting by Tampa to get him in a trade for Bishop when he was a recent 2nd rounder in the OHL

Makar - Top 5 pick
Toews - Highway robbery trade
Byram - Top 5 pick they got from another trade steal
Girard - More great trading / scouting, recent 2nd round pick at the time as well
Manson/Johnson filled in for Girard and saw their ice-time increase post Girard injury
Manson - Cost a 1st rounder at the deadline
Johnson - Acquired so damn long ago

It's really difficult to put together solid contending top 4s. Both these teams needed top picks and to win a couple trades to put it all together. Colorado especially had not one but two of the best trades in recent history to build their top 4.

We already kind of got our lucky add with Siegs looking like a phenomenal defensive defenseman that cost us near nothing, and adding Hamilton in FA to boot. Luke Hughes it hopefully a cornerstone Dman and Nemec is another potential cornerstone at that last top 4 spot. Hoping Smith or someone else develops into that guy would be way too wishful thinking. Adding another via FA or trade would be difficult too. Picking Nemec was likely the best possible avenue towards building the defensive core of a real contender.

We have the potential to have comparable D groups to these teams IMO. Unlikely our #1 will match each of theirs but outside of that, we could have similar depth.

 

[glenwo2]

On the bright side, I think Wright was far more furious at Montreal than us, so if he becomes a star, he's going to spend all that pent up rage on the Habs.

True. Although he would feel perplexed that the Devils didn't jump at the chance to get him even though he (probably) knew they already had Nico and Jack.

Super concerning to me that MTL and ARI passed on Wright given their extreme lack of depth at C.

I think Slaf impressed MTL brass too much to the point where he forced them to take him.

As far as ARI goes (and I've said this before and @OmNomNom liked it), the Arizona Brass (Management) have the combined intellect of a doorknob.

They picked Cooley who, while talented, is still the Lesser of the two between him and Wright as far as their respective positions.

If I'm a Coyotes fan, I'd be like "WTF is our management doing? Wright was right there." and they'd have a legit beef.

TLDR : Arizona management IZ STOOPID.

 

[RSeen]

How is it not?

no, I don't care about Gaudreau in his mid 30s (which would be like 4-5 years into the contract) possibly declining. If it happens and we need to move the contract? Give up an asset to dump him on a bottom feeder or buy him out. All these other winning teams find a way...why can't the Devils?

a main part of Gaudreau's game is based on his vision. Comparing him to Parise (as someone did earlier) is absurd....they don't play similarly at all.

How are you dumping him if he has a NMC? And can we really afford to have an old and declining Dougie+Gaudreau taking up $20M of our cap?

That would be a disaster. These contracts rarely turn out well. Let alone having two of them.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

How are you dumping him if he has a NMC? And can we really afford to have an old and declining Dougie+Gaudreau taking up $20M of our cap?

That would be a disaster. These contracts rarely turn out well. Let alone having two of them.

How often do top 5 wingers or top 15-20 DMen hit the open market?

And players waive clauses all the time....McDonagh just did it the other day, as an example.

I am sick about worrying "what if so and so happens in 5 years!!?!?" Other teams figure it out. When There is an elite offensive player available for nothing but $$$, you go for it.

 

[JimEIV]

I haven't said anything because I am still not sure how I feel about the pick.

In general I will never poo-poo drafting defensemen. I believe you can never have enough of them and a couple of good ones roaming the ice 45/50 minutes can transform a team like no forward can.

That said there are two questions that leave me undecided...1. did we draft the best defenseman and 2. Did we leave exceptional forward talent on the table.

Although I admittedly am a bit less concerned about the forward talent. Seeing Wright fall Thursday night said to me that many feel his ceiling isn't that high...given a choice between a decent top 6 forward vs a potential top pairing defender...you take the defender every time...at least I would.

But I honestly didn't think there was any way Slafkovsky wasn't going to be a Devil so my thought process kind of was thrown out of whack.

 

[glenwo2]

Seeing Wright fall Thursday night said to me that many feel his ceiling isn't that high...

"Many" = Hughes of MTL (whom was rightly convinced that Slaf was their guy because he's a beast), Fitz of NJ (whom apparently was hell-bent on drafting Nemec no matter what apparently), and ARI (who are dumb as a box of rocks in selecting Cooley who is NOT better in his position than Shane Wright)

The decisions to pass on wright have nothing to do with his ceiling, Jim.

It had more to do with preference and, in Arizona's case, pure stupidity.

 

[Devs3cups]

I haven't said anything because I am still not sure how I feel about the pick.

In general I will never poo-poo drafting defensemen. I believe you can never have enough of them and a couple of good ones roaming the ice 45/50 minutes can transform a team like no forward can.

That said there are two questions that leave me undecided...1. did we draft the best defenseman and 2. Did we leave exceptional forward talent on the table.

Although I admittedly am a bit less concerned about the forward talent. Seeing Wright fall Thursday night said to me that many feel his ceiling isn't that high...given a choice between a decent top 6 forward vs a potential top pairing defender...you take the defender every time...at least I would.

But I honestly didn't think there was any way Slafkovsky wasn't going to be a Devil so my thought process kind of was thrown out of whack.

Yeah, Habs going Slaf shuffled the cards a little. Fitz went with his #2 guy after Slaf.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

How often do top 5 wingers or top 15-20 DMen hit the open market?

And players waive clauses all the time....McDonagh just did it the other day, as an example.

I am sick about worrying "what if so and so happens in 5 years!!?!?" Other teams figure it out. When There is an elite offensive player available for nothing but $$$, you go for it.

That’s because he had a NTC and not a NMC and they pretty much blackmailed him. The only way we could dump him is by paying good asset(s) to a lower end team with cap space. He wouldn’t waive for them and even if he had a NTC clause instead of No-move we wouldn’t be able to blackmail him as it would only be the bottom teams looking to take on his contract and no one would take him off waivers anyways.


But you can’t waive someone with a NMC which Gaudreau will very likely get.
Mcdonaugh didn’t have which is how he was basically blackmailed.

 

[JimEIV]

"Many" = Hughes of MTL (whom was rightly convinced that Slaf was their guy because he's a beast), Fitz of NJ (whom apparently was hell-bent on drafting Nemec no matter what apparently), and ARI (who are dumb as a box of rocks in selecting Cooley who is NOT better in his position than Shane Wright)

The decisions to pass on wright have nothing to do with his ceiling, Jim.

It had more to do with preference and, in Arizona's case, pure stupidity.

How do you see Shane Wright in comparison to Nico? Similar? Above? Below?

Here is the thing if you see Wright as remotely similar there is no way a 2C is as valuable as 25 minutes all situation defender....No way, no how.

 

[Devs3cups]

"Many" = Hughes of MTL (whom was rightly convinced that Slaf was their guy because he's a beast), Fitz of NJ (whom apparently was hell-bent on drafting Nemec no matter what apparently), and ARI (who are dumb as a box of rocks in selecting Cooley who is NOT better in his position than Shane Wright)

The decisions to pass on wright have nothing to do with his ceiling, Jim.

It had more to do with preference and, in Arizona's case, pure stupidity.

Fitz hasn’t been shy of drafting C’s. He was assistant GM (I have no doubt he took part in the decisions) when we drafted McLeod, Hischier and Hughes and he drafted Mercer in 2020 as the GM, even with Hischier and Hughes already firmly slotted in our depth chart. It could absolutely be related to his upside, or attitude, or a myriad of factors that we have no idea about. I guarantee you that if Wright was this perfect, can’t miss prospect with no red flags, he would’ve gone top 3, regardless of team preference.

 

[glenwo2]

How do you see Shane Wright in comparison to Nico? Similar? Above? Below?

Here is the thing if you see Wright as remotely similar there is no way a 2C is as valuable as 25 minutes all situation defender....No way, no how.

I don't know where the Nico comparisons came from in regards to Wright.

He's NOTHING like Nico just like Nico is NOTHING like Wright.

They're two totally different types of players who just happen to play Center.

 

[Forge]

That said there are two questions that leave me undecided...1. did we draft the best defenseman and 2. Did we leave exceptional forward talent on the table.

1. I think he is the safer defenseman (I think he has a higher probability of being a top 4 D-man even if he doesn't have the higher probability of being a true #1), and I think he's the better d-man for us in our current incarnation. Now, does the latter mean anything in the greater scheme of things? I don't know. I don't expect Ruff to be around forever with whatever this system of team functioning is, but people have to be able to skate on this team with Hughes and Nico and Bratt and Little Hughes and Jiricek worries me in that regard. I get that the worst of his skating looked so because of an injury, but he wasn't a great skater before the injury to begin with. But it's so, so, so notable on our team when people can't keep up and we are a heavy rush and transition team and I think that is where the league is going to be for a while. Even dougie last year...when he came back from injury and he didn't have his legs under him...man, go back and watch some of those games and see how awful it looked. Holtz isn't a dreadful skater but there's legit concern that he's not a good enough one to mesh well on the team around him (which is only exacerbated by his off the puck work, but I digress).

I know it's not sexy, and maybe not what people want to hear, but if he ends up as a right handed Morgan Rielly, which I don't even believe is saddling with overwhelming expectations, I think that's really really good in this draft.


2. If one of these forwards ends up being exceptional, I don't think it's going to be Wright. He could be, but I think Wright will likely be a good - very good player. I don't know about being exceptional. If we left exceptional talent on the table it's probably more likely to be Cooley, who I never expected us to draft in the first place and thus can't be that upset about. No other forwards in this group was a real option at 2 so any of them hitting and being exceptional is just the luck of the draw sometimes. Every draft includes guys like that.

 

[Blackjack]

First Nemec was ranked in the top two by some people out there. He was also consistently ranked above the others you suggested he was in a tier with and we almost certainly wouldn’t have gotten him at 5 or later.
Like 4/5 mock drafts had him in the top 4 and if not 4 he was at 5. He was consistently ranked above the guys you just said he was in a tier with.

You mention Mackenzie’s rankings. Guess what, Nemec was ranked 2 in the 10 scout poll by at least one scout. Nemec has consistently been ranked close to and in some cases above some of those top 3 guys. That’s a fact

What the hell are you talking about saying that’s what the Carolina’s, the Tampa’s in the Colorado’s do. You think they just draft off of the consensus rankings and don’t use their scouts?

Pretty much everything you said here is pure speculation on your part. You could take what Fitz said to be true or you can make up your own version of what happened and believe that.
Nemec at 2 wasn’t a big reach and if that’s who they wanted the most they should take him.
There is no reasonable way they could’ve traded back and gotten Nemec if that’s who they wanted. It sounds like Seattle wanted him. So Arizona was the only option and why would they trade up 1 spot with Cooley and Wright sitting there.

Edit add: it looks like it’s been reported that Arizona was deciding between either Cooley or Nemec. So the two teams behind us were looking at picking the guy we took at 2. Wow such a reach. Arizona doesn’t seem to have been that interested in Wright.

You’re even assuming that the Devils actually liked Wright more than Cooley. Literally everything in this post is made up speculation.

Why would they have come away with Chesley? You have a problem with the goalie deal? And you have no clue if they even like Chesley.


And clearly no one has been talking about Wright as a franchise player. He isn’t a franchise player. That’s just stupid. If he was he wouldn’t have gone 4th.

I'm pretty sure that McKenzie said that Nemec was ranked as high as three, not two. And again, none of the scouts had Nemec ahead of Wright.

Yes, Nemec was consistently ranked above guys like Nazar, Yurov, and Miroshnechenko. The point is that the gaps in ability are highest at the very top of the draft. That's why winning the lottery and going from 5 to 2 was a big deal. Or at least if was until Fitz shit the bed.

I know that Carolina, Tampa, and Colorado use scouts, what an absolutely moronic comment. They also don't pass on obviously superior players for perceived need, or because they want "their guy". They leave that kind of pants shitting idiocy to the Arizona and Fitz tier GMs. I'm no Ron Francis fan, but it's amazing that he could figure out that you don't pass on Shane Wright just because you took Matty Beniers last year.

It's just amazing that were talking about what Arizona was going to do or where they had guys ranked. They're playing next season in a high school auditorium and haven't hit on a draft pick in six years. Who gives a f*** what Arizona thinks or does?

Why do I give a shit who the Devils "liked"? I could not f***ing care less. Everything you're saying here could have been said if Shero took Bowen Byram at #1 instead of Jack Hughes. "Oh, that's who they liked." "Oh, but [shit tier team] had Bowen ranked highly too, we would have missed out on him if we traded down".

I was okay with the goalie trade because they already passed on Wright so it didn't really matter anymore. If they had done the right thing and taken Wright, then no, I would not have traded #37 with Chesley on the board. You figure out a different package for Vanacek or get a different goalie.

It's way too early to say that Wright is not a franchise player. His draft year production suggests it's not likely, but he probably has a better shot than anyone else in the draft, and that's why he should gone 1 or 2. And even if he's not, it's simply a matter of fact that it's harder to get 1st line centers than any other position. I know we have Hughes and Hischier already. Pittsburgh famously picked Jordan Staal when they already had Crosby and Malkin, and Staal was far less impressive than Wright.

But go ahead, keep justifying this dumb pick, because the alternative is to recognize that Fitz is a crappy gm who is arrogant and overconfident in his abilities.