Prospect Info: New Jersey Devils Draft Simon Nemec, 2nd Overall

[Devil made me do it]

By the time they are both ready, Gaudreau would be up on that cliff and slowly rolling down. How much of a contribution will he bring with his crazy cap hit when we are ready to contend? Simply a bad idea which I don't think Fitz will pursue.

 

[Forge]

By the time they are both ready, Gaudreau would be up on that cliff and slowly rolling down. How much of a contribution will he bring with his crazy cap hit when we are ready to contend? Simply a bad idea which I don't think Fitz will pursue.

I mean, they should both be in the lineup by 23-24.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Gaudreau is 29 years old this year.
You wanna waste your cap money on a player who is about to be washed up in the next couple of years?
Haven't we learned anything from these contracts? Parise in Minnesota as an example.

The good thing is that the Devils can only give Gaudreau a maximum of a seven year deal, while the Wild had to give Parise and Suter 13 year deals. And Parise put up 61 points in 74 games in the seventh year of his deal with Minnesota, and that was without playing with a center like Jack Hughes will likely be when he's 28.

 

[Devil made me do it]

Wouldn't going after Timo Meier next year make more sense?

 

[Oneiro]

I mean, I'd be fine with Gaudreau, he's a genuinely great player, unlike almost everyone else mentioned this summer, and I think he'll age well but it's pretty reasonable to worry about anyone signing a deal at 29, Dougie included.

As far as this thread, I just think some find it hard to believe that we flat out liked Nemec over Wright, regardless of position. We'll see what happens.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Wouldn't going after Timo Meier next year make more sense?

Every time people say this about a player a year away they re-sign with their current team

 

[AfroThunder396]

Subban's 9M is off the cap this year. Next year we're letting at least one of Graves/Serverson walk, Bernier is off the cap, Tatar is off the cap, Johnsson is off the cap. Kuokkanen and Zacha will be gone, maybe Smith be gone too.

As it stand right now we only have three non-ELC players under contract going into Summer 2023 - Hischier, Hughes, and Hamilton. Holtz and Mercer will still be on ELC. The cap will not be a huge problem, and we have an abundance of ELCs we can use to fill out the roster.

The cap is also likely to explode in the next couple of years once the players pay off their debt. Gambling and TV will cause revenue to skyrocket.

 

[Forge]

Wouldn't going after Timo Meier next year make more sense?

Timo is not a ufa next year and we have no idea if he'll ever hit the market. Regardless of how anyone feels about Johnny, I feel like the "blindly just hope that this specific guy becomes available" approach is not great

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You need to think long term. Brat is getting paid. Luke Hughes and Nemec will eventually need to get paid. High end defensive talents like that will cost. The price to pay for constructing a great defensive blueline.
Gaudreau is a really bad idea that could really suffocate our cap in three years where we would have trouble resigning the Mercers of the world.

we're worried about 4 years from now with Hughes and Nemec getting paid lol who cares? Gaudreau's contract will be more than half done by then anyways and the cap will be higher.

Pay good to great players and worry about the rest later.

 

[Devil made me do it]

Timo is not a ufa next year and we have no idea if he'll ever hit the market. Regardless of how anyone feels about Johnny, I feel like the "blindly just hope that this specific guy becomes available" approach is not great

He is a UFA

2024 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

 

[Captain3rdLine]

We are really already thinking about Hughes and Nemecs long term contracts when they haven't started their elc?

I mean you have when you’re talking about signing guys to huge dollars for 7 years.

But there is a middle ground. I’d be fine with Gaudreau at a certain price point but it should be a blank check.

 

[LeedsMonster]

Warmed up to this pick big time after doing a deep film dive on this kid. Anyone saying he is terrible in his own zone needs to do the same. I see a player who makes a ton of plays based on athleticism and instinct, and that is a HUGE indicator that improvement should most definitely be expected. Also, as another poster pointed out, the smaller NA rink is something that is actually going to help this player.

I will admit I did very little research into Nemec predraft because I was focused on different players and didnt have much interest in him. I am now fully on board and am drooling at the thought of an Okhotiuk- Nemec pairing.

Seigenthaler- Hamilton
Okhotiuk- Nemec
Bahl- Hughes (Huge Balls )

In 23- 24

 

[Forge]

I mean you have when you’re talking about signing guys to huge dollars for 7 years.

But there is a middle ground. I’d be fine with Gaudreau at a certain price point but it should be a blank check.

An elc plus bridge deal wipes out anywhere from 4-6 years of that. I just think that is being overly concerned.

He is a UFA

2024 NHL Free Agents

Tracking the status and signings of all NHL free agents.

www.spotrac.com

He's an rfa with a 10 million dollar qualifying offer. His contract has been discussed a lot

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Captain3rdLine]

An elc plus bridge deal wipes out anywhere from 4-6 years of that. I just think that is being overly concerned.

Ummm it doesn’t work like that. You still have to pay them on a bridge deal. If they’re good you’re still gonna have to pay them big. And then the next contract is even more expensive. Bridge deals aren’t a good idea for good young players. Just ends up costing you more.

I get where you’re coming from but it’s absolutely something that has to be taken into account.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

anyways, we shouldnt be discussing the Gaudreau stuff in the Nemec thread, but think of it this way-

would you rather have Tatar, Johnsson, and Zacha or Gaudreau (plus 2 ELCs from Albany)? Its probably about the same amount of money....

 

[Forge]

Ummm it doesn’t work like that. You still have to pay them on a bridge deal. If they’re good you’re still gonna have to pay them big. And then the next contract is even more expensive. Bridge deals aren’t a good idea for good young players. Just ends up costing you more.

I get where you’re coming from but it’s absolutely something that has to be taken into account.

You are typically paying then considerably less on a bridge deal for those years, which makes it easier in the short term to fit everyone in. . It doesn't have to be your preferred methodology but it works just as well.

Good teams don't typically have a lot of cap space regardless. It generally tends to lend itself to more short term cap thinking.

I get not wanting to throw bad money at Johnnyl, I don't get being overly concerned about the cap 5 years down the line

 

[Captain3rdLine]

anyways, we shouldnt be discussing the Gaudreau stuff in the Nemec thread, but think of it this way-

would you rather have Tatar, Johnsson, and Zacha or Gaudreau (plus 2 ELCs from Albany)? Its probably about the same amount of money....

Come on man. That isn’t a reasonable comparison whatsoever. You know that too.

Nobody is worried about this season the next couple seasons. Those guys will all be gone, It’s when Gaudreau is in his mid 30s on a huge contract that people are worried about and that isn’t unreasonable at all.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Come on man. That isn’t a reasonable comparison whatsoever. You know that too.

Nobody is worried about this season the next couple seasons. Those guys will all be gone, It’s when Gaudreau is in his mid 30s on a huge contract that people are worried about and that isn’t unreasonable at all.

How is it not?

no, I don't care about Gaudreau in his mid 30s (which would be like 4-5 years into the contract) possibly declining. If it happens and we need to move the contract? Give up an asset to dump him on a bottom feeder or buy him out. All these other winning teams find a way...why can't the Devils?

a main part of Gaudreau's game is based on his vision. Comparing him to Parise (as someone did earlier) is absurd....they don't play similarly at all.

 

[Devs3cups]

How is it not?

no, I don't care about Gaudreau in his mid 30s (which would be like 4-5 years into the contract) possibly declining. If it happens and we need to move the contract? Give up an asset to dump him on a bottom feeder or buy him out. All these other winning teams find a way...why can't the Devils?

a main part of Gaudreau's game is based on his vision. Comparing him to Parise (as someone did earlier) is absurd....they don't play similarly at all.

I’m WAY less worries about Gaudreau’s contract looking bad 5-7 years in than I was with Parise’s. Their style is completely different. I’d bet Gaudreau is still a 60-70 pt player at 35.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

You are typically paying then considerably less on a bridge deal for those years, which makes it easier in the short term to fit everyone in. . It doesn't have to be your preferred methodology but it works just as well.

Good teams don't typically have a lot of cap space regardless. It generally tends to lend itself to more short term cap thinking.

I get not wanting to throw bad money at Johnnyl, I don't get being overly concerned about the cap 5 years down the line

That is not true whatsoever. You might get a slightly cheaper deal in some cases but it won’t be much cheaper and a lot of the players would be pushing for a long-term deal and wouldn’t take less for a shorter deal. Bridge deals don’t workout nearly as well for really high end young players. That’s why teams try to secure them long-term as quickly as they can.

On a brigde deal the player is gonna get similar money (maybe a little less) and basically give themselves more opportunity to prove themselves and get an even bigger contract.



You have to consider the cap 5 years down the line when you’re talking about signing guys for huge contracts through then who will be in their mid 30s then.

And you’re absolutely right good teams don’t have lots of cap. So they need to careful about what they do with their money and it may not be ideal to have multiple players declining in their 30s making huge bucks as UFA signings during their contending window. It will already be hard enough for us when we’re good without that.

That argument you just made goes exactly to why we need to look 5 years down the road and exactly why we should be careful handing out big UFA contracts to players going into their 30s.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

How is it not?

no, I don't care about Gaudreau in his mid 30s (which would be like 4-5 years into the contract) possibly declining. If it happens and we need to move the contract? Give up an asset to dump him on a bottom feeder or buy him out. All these other winning teams find a way...why can't the Devils?

a main part of Gaudreau's game is based on his vision. Comparing him to Parise (as someone did earlier) is absurd....they don't play similarly at all.

All of these winning teams are dumping much smaller contracts than we’re talking about. None of these winning teams have done what we are talking about at all.

Don’t talk about what the winning teams are doing unless you want to talk about the fact that they built their teams completely through the draft and smart smaller deals.

The only good team that’s done this right now is Toronto with Tavares and that hasn’t worked out for them and I bet their management would secretly love to get out of that deal right now.
They’re tight for cap space and they have a very overpaid 2nd line center. He isn’t a bad player either. But he’s not worth what they’re paying him especially with how tight they are to the cap.
That isn’t even close to the worst case. A lot of players at that age decline a lot more than Tavares has.

He’s gonna decline. It’s just a matter of how much. So we have to gauge that risk and figure out how much is worth it.
I also don’t know why you think you can just dump him with an asset. One because he’s probably gonna get a NMC and two because when we’re talking about this big of a contract it takes more than just a single asset unless that asset is very valuable. I

I never compared him to parise so I’m not sure why you’re bringing him up.

 

[Devil made me do it]

Hamilton was a good signing. He was 27 and defensemen typically age well. Dougie had no injury history and has been a consistent point producer his entire career.
Gaudreau is not a defenseman and by some crazy "coincidence" happened to have a career year in goals scored and goals assisted right as he's about to get paid?? When in the previous two seasons he had average production? This is exactly the type of player you don't sign long term.

 

[glenwo2]

You realize the Devils offense, while far from Colorado, wasn’t really the issue with last season? It was way more the .880 team save percentage. If Hughes is healthy next year and you get some growth from Mercer, contributions from a Holtz, etc, I see no reason why the Devils can’t be in the top half of the league offensively.

yeah but it can't hurt to add another offensive weapon either.

 

[glenwo2]

In taking Nemec we took a guy that was a tier below the top two, he was similar to Jiricek, Gautier, Nazar, Savoie, etc. As Steven said, what was the point of winning the lottery if we were just going to take a guy that would have been there at #5 anyway?

Truth.

Unfortunately, it is what it is.

Nemec is a Devils and we just have to now sit and PRAY that this choice by Fitz doesn't come back to bite us HARD....

Gaudreau is 29 years old this year.
You wanna waste your cap money on a player who is about to be washed up in the next couple of years?
Haven't we learned anything from these contracts? Parise in Minnesota as an example.

Was Elias washed up when he turned 30?

I think Gaudreau's game is the type of game that won't drop off a cliff, imo.

 

[My3Sons]

How about that Nemec kid?