Post-Game Talk: New goalie, new year, same suckiness

[devilsblood]

Ruff walking out in a huff cause Novo asked about Bratt's ice time is moronic. 3 wins in the last 17 games coached by Ruff. He earned those boos with his shit coaching and actions.

Applause and admiration is earned not given just because.

I think both Ruff playing Bratt so little and his reaction to the question were not good looks. Still a pregame boo at the home opener? Thats a bad look from the crowd.

 

[NjDevsRR]

This is exactly what was said about the Philly game. Then when I pulled the video of the scoring chances and goals, it turns out that despite the devils having the territorial and shot advantage, the flyers had twice as many chances as the devils where a shooter was in the slot/circles/right in front of the net completely uncontested by a defender.

I didn’t think they played great in Philly, but last night wasn’t a stinker. Normal goaltending and its not a 5-2 loss

 

[JimEIV]

Frankly, I agree that there's problems all around, but I can't even begin to assess them with the goaltending we've been getting.

There's definitely a lot of blame to go around though.

I honestly think that the team is so bad it's impossible to assess the goaltending.

Too many people have had a kick at the can with virtually the same exact results for me to think otherwise.

 

[Eggtimer]

Well see there's the thing again.
You can quantify something: I think NHL stats are pretty good at counting.
But it is hard to qualify something:
All shots on goal aren't created equal so SV% is suspect. We know this bc a goalie could see 40 shots like the Islanders under Trotz or Boston give up, with forwards and defensemen working together to give goalies clean looks at pucks and keeping everything to the outside; or a goalie could see four breakaways and 20 total shots.

HDSC and equivalent try to be better, and they are, but not by much.

xGA takes it a step further.

They all give the illusion of representing shot quality but 'what makes a chance difficult for a goalie' is super complex and just not well represented in these stats.

I agree with your stew analogy. It's subpar goaltending, imperfect system, players with bad defensive training, decision-making and instincts, youth, coaching and culture.

I think the system could work with the right personnel. I think it personnel could work with a few tweaks in the right system. I think it goaltending would at least look better if either of the above panned out, but right now the chief component of this stew is shit.

The problem with this system is that it assumes players are efficient at certain aspects of the game like blocking shots and reading the play. But most of our young kids have yet to learn the small details it takes to win. A simpler system would be better umtil we learn how to perfect a different system

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

They may or may not, but the chances they got were more glorious than average.

Do some of you really not understand the distinction between quantity and quality? That not every shot, chance, or even HDC is exactly the same?

They didn’t have quality or quantity. It wasn’t all just bad goaltending, there was some “holy shit that shot got through and went in?”. Everything doesn’t have to fit into a narrative.

Sometimes you just have a game where the team doesn’t do a whole lot and gets more goals than you’d expect. And when you combine that with poor finishing, you lose 5-2 while really not giving up many chances.

 

[Satans Hockey]

I think both Ruff playing Bratt so little and his reaction to the question were not good looks. Still a pregame boo at the home opener? Thats a bad look from the crowd.

If it was his first year sure but it's the 3rd season after 2 miserable seasons with him at the helm. People pay a lot of money to attend these games and are tired of seeing horrible hockey that ain't worth the money or effort. He's just a part of the problem but his time is up here.

 

[NjDevsRR]

The normal bad faith posters make it unbearable here. Even when they were winning in 17-18, and especially now the last few years. A long hiatus is due. Enough.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I honestly think that the team is so bad it's impossible to assess the goaltending.

To many people have had a kick at the can with virtually the same exact results for me to think otherwise.

^This. 2019, mb29 was superb and finished with 22W, 22L
Bleedred ran Schneider and Dominguez out of town as the worst goalies ever. Each only had 3 wins against 8 and 10 losses.

The next year mb29 was 14W-21L. Wedge, Comrie and Dell won four games combined in 21 starts and were soundly criticized as garbage AHLers

Last year: Daws 10w-12L, Blackwood 9W-14L, Berner 4W-5L

The rest, where it really was just AHL garbage?
4 wins in 35 starts.

I Think average/good goaltending wins less than 50% of their games with this team, no matter what. Bad goaltending wins zero games... Or four in 35.

 

[Capt Nico Poo]

Had a look at the wings goals last night. Did they build any of the chances themselves? Felt like our team gifted them with most of the chances they capitalized on. Wouldnt blame Vanecek for those. Sure an elite (and hot) goalie could catch some of them but come on, even Vasiliyevski will give a goal at times if you shoot hard to short side post and in, i.e. a perfect shot.

Blackwood let in customary non-dangerous shots a bit above the pads. Not too concerned about Vanecek.

 

[JimEIV]

^This. 2019, mb29 was superb and finished with 22W, 22L
Bleedred ran Schneider and Dominguez out of town as the worst goalies ever. Each only had 3 wins against 8 and 10 losses.

The next year mb29 was 14W-21L. Wedge, Comrie and Dell won four games combined in 21 starts and were soundly criticized as garbage AHLers

Last year: Daws 10w-12L, Blackwood 9W-14L, Berner 4W-5L

The rest, where it really was just AHL garbage?
4 wins in 35 starts.

I Think average/good goaltending wins less than 50% of their games with this team, no matter what. Bad goaltending wins zero games... Or four in 35.

Vanecek gave up more than 4 goals twice last year.

In 42 games played in with 39 starts...from the start of the season to through February, he gave up more than 3 only twice and had two shutouts in that span. Apparently he forgot how to tend his net?

 

[Bleedred]

Vanecek gave up more than 4 goals twice last year.

Vanecek gave up more than 4 goals twice last year.

In 42 games played in with 39 starts...from the start of the season to through February, he gave up more than 3 only twice and had two shutouts in that span. Apparently he forgot how to tend his net?

He did fall off a bit late last season, which is why Samsonov started playing more games.

And they had a pretty short leash with him in the playoffs. I clearly remember giving Vanecek a softy of the night in one of his playoff games and saying it looked like a goal from the 80's.

 

[JimEIV]

He did fall off a bit late last season, which is why Samsonov started playing more games.

And they had a pretty short leash with him in the playoffs. I clearly remember giving Vanecek a softy of the night in one of his playoff games and saying it looked like a goal from the 80's.

Through the beginning up to March 17th he was 16-7-5 with a .919 and 3 shutouts.

His last 11 he was 4-5-1 with an .875

But Samsonov wasn't much better during the same end of season stretch with an .879...he did have a much better record though going 6-3-1 in his final games from March 18th to the end.

 

[Call Me Al]

Through the beginning up to March 17th he was 16-7-5 with a .919 and 3 shutouts.

His last 11 he was 4-5-1 with an .875

But Samsonov wasn't much better during the same end of season stretch with an .879...he did have a much better record though going 6-3-1 in his final games from March 18th to the end.

crazy - it’s almost like the team in front of them and the way they play influences the save percentage of the goalies. or maybe both capitals goalies got devils-itis at the same time and forgot how to play at a league average

 

[Bleedred]

Through the beginning up to March 17th he was 16-7-5 with a .919 and 3 shutouts.

His last 11 he was 4-5-1 with an .875

But Samsonov wasn't much better during the same end of season stretch with an .879...he did have a much better record though going 6-3-1 in his final games from March 18th to end

I was critical of Laviolette for playing so much of Samsonov at the end of the year, as even in his poor streak Vanecek was better. Samsonov was one of the worst goalies I saw last year and it's no surprise that Washington gave up on him and just let him go UFA at age 25.

One thing we have to remember as much as I don't want to, Vanecek was still a negative in his first two years in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Not nearly to the degree of our goalies from last year, but still a negative by about 5 or 6 goals each season.

He was a positive in goals saved above average, but the other stat accounts for team play in front of the goalie. Goals saved above average only accounts for goals saved above the league average save percentage.

So Washington was a fairly goalie friendly team for him to play above league average save percentage, but save fewer goals than he was expected to. Every goalie we had last year was expected to be above league average save percentage, other than 3 games of Wedgewood and 7 games (I think that's how many he played?) of Hammond. I think Wedgewood was an expected .895% or something in the 3 games he played and I clearly remember Hammond was an expected .904%. The rest of the guys were an expected .911%-.912% and Schmid was an expected .916% in the very few games he played.

 

[Devs3cups]

crazy - it’s almost like the team in front of them and the way they play influences the save percentage of the goalies. or maybe both capitals goalies got devils-itis at the same time and forgot how to play at a league average

To be fair, maybe Washington played the same as the start of the year in those last 11 games but Vanecek was very bad in them.

 

[Bleedred]

crazy - it’s almost like the team in front of them and the way they play influences the save percentage of the goalies. or maybe both capitals goalies got devils-itis at the same time and forgot how to play at a league average

There's not much evidence to suggest our team play has hurt goalies over a full season. Not last year.

Now, maybe you just don't believe in that. I know a lot of people here are atheists of analytics in general, so they'll be atheists of analytics that are goalie specific, but these stats account for team play in front of goalies. There were goalies that had a below league average save percentage, yet were still a positive in goals saved above expected. Jake Allen on Montreal last year. Matt Murray last year on Ottawa (not the year before, just last year), just as there were goalies with save percentages above league average, yet were negatives in goals saved above expected. Cam Talbot and Kahkonen from the Wild being two.

Those teams make their goalies look way better. Teams like Ottawa and Montreal certainly make goalies look worse. It doesn't mean their goalies are good, but that they lose some points in save percentage playing there. Montembeault is still horrific, but he probably still allows a few more goals behind Montreal than he would elsewhere. Cam Talbot saved a lot more goals behind Minnesota than he would almost anywhere else. Boston is another team that makes goalies look better in recent years.

Connor Hellebuyck was above the league average save percentage last year for Winnipeg, but not by a whole lot. However, his goals saved above expected was REALLY GOOD. Winnipeg last year definitely caused him to get scored on more than he should have been.

 

[JimEIV]

To be fair, maybe Washington played the same as the start of the year but Vanecek was very bad in those last 11 to end the year.

Yeah but the other goalie had virtually the same exact SV% as Vanecek. Would at least seem to be some indication that the team was playing a little more poorish at the end.

 

[MadDevil]

Yeah but the other goalie had virtually the same exact SV% as Vanecek. Would at least seem to be some indication that the team was playing a little more poorish at the end.

Or maybe both goalies weren't that good at the same time?

 

[Call Me Al]

i’m not an atheist in analytics but they’re not gospel. all hdc are not the same. all shooters aren’t the same and there are plenty of variables that don’t show up on the score sheet.

we are expected to believe that it’s a just a coincidence that all of our goalies are among the worst in the league even as we watch a team that struggles with positioning, coverage, puck battles, turnovers and chemistry

 

[My3Sons]

The normal bad faith posters make it unbearable here. Even when they were winning in 17-18, and especially now the last few years. A long hiatus is due. Enough.

Some folks are over reacting and frustrated and some have some preconceived notion of what the team lost these two that may not make any sense. Having said that I am seeing a team that struggled last season and has changed nothing beyond adding Vanacek and Palat. Now the goalies were awful ast season but these two games suggest that there is more to it than that. These two games look just like last season which some are taking issue with. I get that even if you have to filter out the goof balls with the weird agendas.

 

[Camille the Eel]

You always miss the point and always need it to be written out as such a kindergarten kid will understand. Precious.

Let me help you.

Normal goaltending last night and its not a 5-2 loss. Would they win? That’s up in the air. 5-2 loss? Absolutely not, and absolutely not debatable.

Does that help your thinking skills?

Sheez that’s condescending - looking back I can only really fault the goalie on the backhand and maybe Vrana’s bullet for his positioning. So maybe 2 of them. Yeah you want him to rise to the level of stealing a couple more.

Vrana has killed us for years. With Washington he was a particular threat against us always. On shootouts too.

But if ever there was a team loss, this was probably it.

I can’t believe we didn’t finish a couple more of our many chances.

I thought Detroit very impressive too. Failure to score and defensive and other blunders for which there was no excuse were at least equally responsible for that result.

If I never see Tatar again, it wouldn’t be too soon. Can’t stand him. That high stick on the 4 on 3 that took the power play away was a huge drag. Please don’t chain Jack to him. I liked seeing Jack and Bratt together actually.

 

[Bleedred]

Yeah but the other goalie had virtually the same exact SV% as Vanecek. Would at least seem to be some indication that the team was playing a little more poorish at the end.

I'm not sure if someone can find the splits for late in the year, but Vanecek certainly was better than Samsonov both years in Washington. Very significantly last year.

I think Samsonov's save percentage also dropped late in the year, but he was in the toilet the whole season in the lower .900's% (finished with an .896%) and fell off even more late in the year. Vanecek did also, but still played significantly better than Samsonov.

I clearly remember they won a few games with Samsonov late in the year while scoring 4-5 goals when he'd allow 3-4. I remember I was super critical of Laviolette preferring Samsonov late in the year. Not because Vanecek was great, but because Samsonov was super rotten.

 

[JimEIV]

Or maybe both goalies weren't that good at the same time?

Regardless of how good they are they both had drop offs in SV% from the middle of March to the end of the season..

Vanecek went .919 to .875
Samsonov went .901 to .879

I suppose that could be a coincidence?

.

I'm not sure if someone can find the splits for late in the year, but Vanecek certainly was better than Samsonov both years in Washington. Very significantly last year.

I think Samsonov's save percentage also dropped late in the year, but he was in the toilet the whole season in the lower .900's% (finished with an .896%) and fell off even more late in the year. Vanecek did also, but still played significantly better than Samsonov.

I clearly remember they won a few games with Samsonov late in the year while scoring 4-5 goals when he'd allow 3-4. I remember I was super critical of Laviolette preferring Samsonov late in the year. Not because Vanecek was great, but because Samsonov was super rotten.

Samsonov got the majority of the starts all year.

 

[MadDevil]

i’m not an atheist in analytics but they’re not gospel. all hdc are not the same. all shooters aren’t the same and there are plenty of variables that don’t show up on the score sheet.

we are expected to believe that it’s a just a coincidence that all of our goalies are among the worst in the league even as we watch a team that struggles with positioning, coverage, puck battles, turnovers and chemistry

In the last 2 years our goalies have been a guy who may have never been completely healthy, a guy whose hip exploded, a guy we just acquired this offseason who has played 1 game...and a bunch of non NHL caliber goalies. The system may not help, but let's not make it sound like we've had quality goalies who have been sandbagged by the team in front of them.

 

[My3Sons]

In the last 2 years our goalies have been a guy who may have never been completely healthy, a guy whose hip exploded, a guy we just acquired this offseason who has played 1 game...and a bunch of non NHL caliber goalies. The system may not help, but let's not make it sound like we've had quality goalies who have been sandbagged by the team in front of them.

To me both can be true. Struggling goalies and a system that exacerbates that.