FerrisRox
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This would be abysmal for the Hurricanes.
Like, really, really bad. You can add a first round pick and then it goes from "really, really bad" to "not good for Carolina."
Proposal: Necas <CAR> for Chytil and Robertson <NYR>
- Thread starter FoxysExpensiveNYDigs
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This would be abysmal for the Hurricanes.
Like, really, really bad. You can add a first round pick and then it goes from "really, really bad" to "not good for Carolina."
GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
Reinhart to FLA was a bad trade executed by inept Buffalo management but it's still a somewhat comparable one.
Debrincat to Detroit isn't not comparable at all. Ottawa absolutely f***ed themselves there and he was sold off for pennies on the dollar much like Chychrun. Debrincat to Ottawa would be closer to what we have here.
Either way, unless Necas wants to hold out and not play hockey he's either going to play the next two years for Carolina or he's going to get traded for something that the Canes feel is acceptable. Whether or not the package is what their ask is would be a different question but they absolutely don't need to bend the knee and sell him off just because.
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It is utter delusion that Necas is close to what Debrincat was when traded to ottawa.
Debrincat had not 1, but 2 40 goal seasons under his belt.
134 games, 73 goals, 134 points in his previous 2 years
vs
159 games, 52 goals, 124 points.
And Cat was a year younger. And league scoring was lower.
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I meant for a single draft pick 1 for 1.
Of the guys referenced, I think Fiala is the most comparable to Necas in terms of skillset and play style (though I agree that Fiala > Necase).
Fiala was traded for 19th overall + Brock Faber, who had just come off an impressive showing at the Olympics while being the top dman on the gold medal WJC squad as an 18 year old. I don't think a 4th overall pick is better than that package.
Trouba got a 1st round pick + a 24 year old top pair defenseman, I think that is comparable to a 4th overall pick. I was never that high on Trouba, and would prefer Necas to him.
Reinhart is not a dynamic/primary offensive player like Necas and Fiala. He had a career high of 65 points through 6 seasons, and was a complete unknown in the playoffs.
Debrincat is similarly more of a complimentary offensive player - a large portion of his offense was driven by Kane and PP scoring. He returned the 7th pick, a high 2nd, and a high 3rd. That feels pretty comparable to the value of a 4th overall pick. I prefer Necas to him as well.
Other comparable trades including top 10 picks:
- J Staal for 8th overall, Brian Dumoulin, Brandon Sutter
- Jeff Carter for 8th overall, Jake Voracek (former 7th overall), 3rd rounder
- Fedotenko for 4th overall + two 2nds
- Linden for the 10th overall (Linden was 29 and had already fallen off a lot)
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5v5 numbers during his last 3 years in Chicago:
Debrincat with Kane:
2,951 mins
0.93 g/60
2.19 p/60
Debrincat w/o Kane:
1,281 mins
0.70 g/60
1.55 p/60
GIN ANTONIC
Registered User
I didn't say it was the same. I said it was CLOSER to the current situation than Debrincat to Detroit.
You can go up 0.22 ppg, 0.17 gpg, 1 pp minute a game, 2:45 total TOI a game, and say its the same.
But if I flipped that the other way on you.
let's go down to a guy, a year younger than Necas, 2 RFA years left, similar production gaps as the gap between Necas and Cat.
He got 40 seconds a night on the PP compared to Necas 160 seconds a night, overall about 2 and a half minutes less.
Had 0.08 fewer goals per game, 0.28 ppg less, so a slightly bigger ppg gap, and a smaller goals gap to make it up.
That would be Yegor Sharangovich when traded to Calgary. I guess I'll add that to the comps as well.
Shocking turn of events, and then you take 1 look at the blackhawks roster during that time.
Necas 0.77 PPG in the 2 years prior to being traded (in a much higher scoring league on a much higher scoring team): Flirting
Reinhart 0.76 PPG in the 2 years prior to being traded: Harassment
Necas is not close to what debrincat was.
Fiala is also a tier above Necas.
Trouba was an elite top pairing RD at that time, he absolutely cleared Necas.
If you think 4th overall is worth so little, that's on you.
Top Dman on a world juniors squad is a weird way to describe faber considering he played 17:59 minutes in the final (4th on the team behind Sanderson, York, and Helleson), as well as 17:38 in the semis (4th on the team behind York, Helleson, and Johnson). York was the captain, and undisputed number 1 dman on that team. Sanderson was the number 2. Helleson, Johnson, Thrun, Faber all hovered around 17-18 minutes as the 3-6
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Jordan Staal was 23 years old, a selke candidate center, and had just put up a season where he ranked top 30 in the league in goals per game. (Maybe try Seth Jarvis if he was also a selke caliber center )
Jeff Carter had a top 10 HART trophy finish under his belt. He had 115 goals over the previous 3 years. The only player above 120 goals in that time frame was Ovi.
Fedotenko was pre salary cap in a generationally AWFUL draft class.
Linden was also pre salary cap.
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Yeah how awful to play with Toews, Strome, Hagel, Dach, Hagel etc. He produced like a 3rd liner without getting carried by Kane.
I would very easily take Necas over Debrincat. Debrincat is great at what he does, but he's a complimentary offensive player and PP specialist.
Prior 3 years to "trade":
Necas at 5v5:
0.82 g/60
1.86 p/60
Most common linemate: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Debrincat at 5v5:
0.84 g/60
1.90 p/60
Most common linemate: Patrick Kane
The rest of their production difference is accounted for by PP ice time:
Necas:
2:17 PP TOI per game
Debrincat:
3:37 PP TOI per game
Necas is just as productive as Debrincat as a primary offensive player while not getting carried by his linemates. A complimentary player has to be significantly more productive than a primary offensive player to be comparable - we see the same thing with Larkin this past year where he was carried by Larkin:
Debrincat with Larkin
505 mins
1.31 g/60
3.32 p/60 in
Debrincat w/o Larkin
649 mins
0.46 g/60
1.39 p/60
When he's not getting carried by his linemates, he's been incredibly unproductive at 5v5. He was on his own line for the most part in Ottawa and ended the season with 0.63 g/60 and 1.58 p/60 - 3rd line production again.
And Reinhart was getting an extra minute per game on the PP and getting centered by Jack Eichel at 5v5...
I agree
I disagree
If you think Necas is worth so little, that's on you. He's one of the most dynamic puck carriers in the league. His type of skillset is extremely rare and highly coveted. And he's one season removed from leading the 2nd best team in the league in scoring. If he was needing a new contract last summer, what do you think he would have fetched in a trade after such a season?
Spoken like someone who didn't watch the tournament. He was absolutely rock solid for the US as an underager.
And then he made the Olympic team as a teenage dman. He was far from some "secondary piece" of that trade, like you suggested. Ask Kings fans what was harder to part with - the 1st rounder or Brock Faber.
He was 24 at the start of the season. Elite defensive center with a career high 50 points. I'd probably value Staal ahead of Necas at the time, but it's definitely close. They are very different players. Regardless, the package he returned was very clearly worth more than a 4th overall pick.
Carter was more valuable, sure. But the package he received was worth WAAAY more than a 4th overall pick.
Who cares if it was pre-salary cap?
2022 had some really strong dmen in the top of the draft. Joni Pitkanen was the 4th pick. He was the top ranked European skater with size, speed, and skill. He was a top 10 dman in the league for about 5-6 years before injuries ruined his career.
And it goes without saying, but Necas >> Fedotenko + two 2nd round picks.
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Alright. You went to 3 years. I'd mention the fact that debrincat potted 41 goals at 21 years old but I'll give you a break.
Debrincat is an elite PP weapon. Necas is JAG. That provides value
Yes, you play debrincat on a top line, because he is a 1st line player. I'm glad that necas can produce decently all across the top 9 on a stacked team though.
Dach was AWFUL. Hagel was good for half a season. Toews was WASHED.
Faber made the olympic team without NHLers lmao.
Staal is more like if you tried to trade Seth Jarvis. Btw staal had 0.77 PPG in the 2 years prior to his trade, exactly the same as what necas has. 1 was just a selke caliber C and 2 years younger.
Jeff Carter is not a comparable asset to Necas, so no point even mentioning what he recieved. Again, call me when Necas is top 5 in goals over the past 3 years.
Pre Salary cap was a completely different trade market. Proven players were worth more as you could keep as many as you wanted. Whereas now the value a productive ELC provides in the salary cap era is unmatched
Fedotenko was again pre salary cap in a historically awful draft. There's a reason like 6 top 10 picks were traded in that 1 specific draft and basically nowhere else
Also, basically the entire crux of your Debrincat argument is just that you think Debrincat is overrated and carried by Kane.
Which isn't particularly relevant. What matters was his league wide value.
Ottawa paid for a 40 goal, 80 point 24 year old.
Yes, Necas would have recieved more last year when he was a year younger, coming off a much better season, and still had a year at 3 mill.
Since then he had a 50 point season with piss poor defensive results, is a year older, and no longer has that incredibly valuable year
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Yes, being a good PP player provides value. Necas led the Canes in PP scoring in 2022-23 when given the opportunity to do so. He's an extremely effective PP player, much better on entries and has a deadly one timer in his own right.
If by "produce decently" you mean produce just the same as Debrincat?
Teams tend to put a premium on primary offensive drivers more than complimentary PP specialists. Ottawa thought they were getting a better player than they actually got because they weren't paying attention.
The only difference between this year and last year was PP deployments, which Necas had no control over. Yet somehow that tanks his value?
And he was still very impressive
Yegor Sharangovich 5v5 in the 3 years prior to his trade
1.73 p/60, 0.8 g/60
Necas
1.86 p/60, 0.68 g/60
Pretty similar, and Yegor a year younger.
Only difference is PP deployments. I guess Necas+3rd could get you Ehlers then
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I like Sharangovich a lot, never liked the trade to Calgary as a Devils fan perspective. But again, you're missing pretty significant context:
w/ Hughes
1,138 mins
0.84 g/60
2.06 p/60
w/o Hughes
1,495 mins
0.76 g/60
1.49 p/60
Compared to Necas with his most common linemate:
w/Kotkaniemi:
1,008 mins
0.71 g/60
1.90 p/60
w/o Kotkaniemi:
2,185 mins
0.66 g/60
1.84 p/60
Sharangovich is not a primary offensive player. Looking at their p/60 with their top forward linemates (>100 mins at 5v5), you can see how this plays out:
Sharangovich:
1.84 p/60 with those players
0.74 standard deviation (40.3% of the mean)
Necas:
1.88 p/60 with those players
0.36 standard deviation (19.0% of the mean)
Necas's productivity is not nearly as dependent on linemates as most other players. It's remarkable how little his productivity has fluctuated with a whole host of different linemates. He hasn't fallen below 1.80 p/60 with any linemate >300 mins:
You are crediting Necas because the canes run a balanced lineup and he is virtually always playing with at least 1 very talented player, and an excellent dcore behind it to help out.
Sure, there isn't one specific player he thrives with, because there isn't 1 specific scenario where the help is MUCH better. (especially considering the dcore. He just has vastly better help ALL the time
Kane had 2.05 points/60 without Cat, and 2.65 with him in the final 2 years. Almost like they were the only 2 competent offensive players on that team
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ICanMotteBelieveIt
Registered User
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This is real bad for the Canes. Chytil has the potential to be a real good player but he can't stay healthy.
Major risk that he'll retire early due to concussions.
Major risk that he'll retire early due to concussions.
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Then I guess all the Canes forwards should have that sort of consistency.
Seems like the two top primary offensive players have much less variance in their scoring efficiency vs complimentary guys like Teravainen and Jarvis.
So Kane was still able to produce like a top line player without Debrincat, despite having no "competent offensive players" to play with...
What's the timeline on that
Over the last 2 years, guess which forward Aho is least productive alongside? It's necas (9 forwards over 100 minutes)
Guess which forward Svech is least productive alongside? it's KK, with Necas 2nd last. (8 forwards over 100 minutes)
I guess good for Necas that he drags down a teams best offensive weapons when paired with them for #consistency
He's a good play driver on a second line, assuming you have the defense to account for his weakness there.
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Last 3 years
Yeah, often times primary offensive players don't work well on a line. In this case, Aho's p/60 dropped from 2.22 to 2.02 alongside Necas (though his goal scoring jumped from 1.01 to 1.25, which makes sense). The difference is actually entirely driven by Aho's 2nd assist rate dropping with Necas, his primary p/60 was actually higher with Necas in the last 3 years. Regardless, it's really not that large of a difference, but I would chalk it up to chemistry more than anything.
In the last 3 years, Svech has averaged 2.22 p/60 with Necas vs 2.25 in total. And again, his primary p/60 is higher with Necas (1.92 vs 1.75).
This is false, as I showed above. And he has shown the ability to elevate complimentary offensive players like Noesen, Trocheck, and Niederreiter.
Necas can absolutely drive a 1st line, but it really depends on the makeup of your top offensive players. If your 1C is not a great puck transporter, he's a perfect fit.
I do like the idea of sneaking Necas onto a 2nd line if you have a strong top line, but lack dynamism in the rest of your top 6. He'll get that 2nd line to be modestly productive. Like, he could be really successful on a line with guys like Jake Debrusk and Elias Lindholm. I'd also have him fill in as the 4th fwd on your PP1.
You used Aho and Svechnikov total points/60. (including time spent with necas).
Aho's P/60 is 2.27 when not with necas over the last 3 years.
If your 1st line is Necas and a center who can't drive play, what you actually have is a second line.
Regardless, the point is necas does not ELEVATE your top lines or top players. He plays them to his level, and also struggles defensively.
Here is every forward Martin Necas has played at least 100 minutes with over the past 3 years (data pulled from natural stat trick), and their results with and without Necas in terms of shot share, goal share, and expected goal share
Hell of a lot of green. Virtually every player he's played with puts up better on ice results without him, than with him. Now, this would make sense if Marty Necas was a shutdown defensive player who took the absolute hardest matchups night in and night out.
Boom Boom Apathy
I am the Professor. Deal with it!
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@dgibb10 You're spending an awful lot of time trying to defend a proposal that most fans, even NYR fans, think is not a good proposal.
Chytl (lesser player an injury concerns) and Robertson (not a need for Carolina) isn't attractive to Carolina. Time to move on.
Chytl (lesser player an injury concerns) and Robertson (not a need for Carolina) isn't attractive to Carolina. Time to move on.
time for this thread to die a natural death
