Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[Predsanddead24]

1. Probably won't, but Trotz had two choices, take a shot while he still had years with Forsberg and Josi, or sit in the middle of the pack as a bubble team because those guys would have kept us just good enough not to really bottom out.

2. No we didn't, but if you don't you may not have gotten the UFA's you did to take the shot Trotz is trying too. The minute Trotz made the decision to go all in he didn't have much choice imo.

3. Yes and no. We have no idea what he was seeing offer wise for Saros, but based on what some other guys got traded for it appears it probably wouldn't have even been what we got out of Askarov.

Basically Trotz kicked the can down the road 3 years or so, which isn't a bad thing. It lets him work in a few of the young guys, move them or keep them while the bulk should be ready to go just about the time these guys are done. I mean worse comes to worse they all get hurt and we get a top 5 draft spot, odds are though we probably just end up where we would have been anyways, squarely in the middle.

I’ll also add that in addition to all this he’s built up the prospect pool in the meantime. Askarov is really the only asset we’ve lost through this whole process which definitely stings but as a whole we’ve built up a pretty solid base of a prospect pool. That should help us be able to rebuild quicker in 4-5 years when all the current vets are gone.

 

[Scoresberg]

Elite Prospects (who I find to be the most accurate pundits in the prospect game) have us with the 18th best prospect pool

here are their rankings:

1. Matt Wood
2. Teddy Stiga
3. Zach L’Hereux
4.Kemell
5. Molendyk
6. Svechkov
7.Edstrom
8. Lind
9. Marques
10. Surin
11. Nilssson
12 Ufko
13. ingram
14. gibson
15 willis
16 fink
17 hanzel
18 Reid Schafer (fake prospect)

quotes:

Thanks for this. As opposed to Pronman's repulsive list, this was actually very well-written and pretty close to the truth.

People need to realize over here that our prospect pool is not that strong. It's deep - like we all know - but in terms of game-breaking talent (which you need to acquire through the draft) is hard to come by.

Now, the more you add those "lottery tickets" the more the odds rise that at least one of those players will outplay their draft position. But until that happens, it's all just speculation and guessing game.

Now, where it could all change is next year. Next summer's draft class is supposed be a strong one and we have three coupons to the main event.

 

[PredsV82]

I’ll also add that in addition to all this he’s built up the prospect pool in the meantime. Askarov is really the only asset we’ve lost through this whole process which definitely stings but as a whole we’ve built up a pretty solid base of a prospect pool. That should help us be able to rebuild quicker in 4-5 years when all the current vets are gone.

If it goes well there won't be a "rebuild"
We have enough good young prospects that should feed into the lineup one or two a year and then gradually move up in responsibility. Supplement that with timely UFA or trade acquisitions and we really shouldn't have to go through a teardown type rebuild phase

 

[Predsanddead24]

Thanks for this. As opposed to Pronman's repulsive list, this was actually very well-written and pretty close to the truth.

People need to realize over here that our prospect pool is not that strong. It's deep - like we all know - but in terms of game-breaking talent (which you need to acquire through the draft) is hard to come by.

Now, the more you add those "lottery tickets" the more the odds rise that at least one of those players will outplay their draft position. But until that happens, it's all just speculation and guessing game.

Now, where it could all change is next year. Next summer's draft class is supposed be a strong one and we have three coupons to the main event.

I enjoy prospect discussions and all but I really think the idea that any of these prospects list is close to the "truth" is nonsense. If you go look at say the 2021 prospect rankings Farrance was almost universally our top D prospect and Stastney was somewhere way down the list. Likewise, Evangelista is typically somewhere way down the list. I just don't think any of these online prospect people are actually any more accurate than us just crowdsourcing our rankings. If any of these media prospects experts were actually that good they'd be on an NHL scouting staff.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I enjoy prospect discussions and all but I really think the idea that any of these prospects list is close to the "truth" is nonsense. If you go look at say the 2021 prospect rankings Farrance was almost universally our top D prospect and Stastney was somewhere way down the list. Likewise, Evangelista is typically somewhere way down the list. I just don't think any of these online prospect people are actually any more accurate than us just crowdsourcing our rankings. If any of these media prospects experts were actually that good they'd be on an NHL scouting staff.

This. I would add that with prospect writers like Pronman, there is basically no way he can accurately rank draft prospects and organizational pipeline rankings like this and produce 32 lists where he is truly providing insight. As fans, we would have a hard time doing rankings like this of every team, but the board lists are probably for most teams a better projection than what he does because many folks here really are more familiar with their own teams prospects than he or Wheeler or any of the other guys who try to do it all.

 

[herzausstein]

Prospects lists are a year by year adventure. Next season guys like Kemell, L'Heureux, Svechkov, Edstrom, and Surin could rocket rocket in potential, stand pat, or plummet. A good 60+ point season for the AHL prospects and theyll start looking more like top line potential. A big year overseas Surin and edstrom could spell the same.

Likewise, players can stagnate or regress. Development isnt linear. We have seen top draft picks flop spectacularly while 7th rounders or even undrafted players become great NHL players. Right now we look like we got a deep prospect pool just noone looks like that certified top end talent. Some players may take that step in development this year and turn into that prospect.

 

[glenngineer]

1. Probably won't, but Trotz had two choices, take a shot while he still had years with Forsberg and Josi, or sit in the middle of the pack as a bubble team because those guys would have kept us just good enough not to really bottom out.

2. No we didn't, but if you don't you may not have gotten the UFA's you did to take the shot Trotz is trying too. The minute Trotz made the decision to go all in he didn't have much choice imo.

3. Yes and no. We have no idea what he was seeing offer wise for Saros, but based on what some other guys got traded for it appears it probably wouldn't have even been what we got out of Askarov.

Basically Trotz kicked the can down the road 3 years or so, which isn't a bad thing. It lets him work in a few of the young guys, move them or keep them while the bulk should be ready to go just about the time these guys are done. I mean worse comes to worse they all get hurt and we get a top 5 draft spot, odds are though we probably just end up where we would have been anyways, squarely in the middle.

Thanks for talking me off the ledge.

 

[bdub24]

Elite Prospects (who I find to be the most accurate pundits in the prospect game) have us with the 18th best prospect pool

here are their rankings:

1. Matt Wood
2. Teddy Stiga
3. Zach L’Hereux
4.Kemell
5. Molendyk
6. Svechkov
7.Edstrom
8. Lind
9. Marques
10. Surin
11. Nilssson
12 Ufko
13. ingram
14. gibson
15 willis
16 fink
17 hanzel
18 Reid Schafer (fake prospect)

quotes:

So we’re like the Bene Gesseritt - prospects and plans

 

[hockey diva]

So we’re like the Bene Gesseritt - prospects and plans

Well played…

 

[bdub24]

I’m sure you all will roast this take, but I dug the sports bro/puppy dog energy immaturity of RyJo.

 

[Scoresberg]

So what are we looking at on opening night?

Forsberg - O'Reilly - Nyquist
Stamkos - Novak - Marchessault
Jankowski - Pärssinen - Evangelista
Smith - Sissons - Tomasino
McCarron

Josi - Fabbro
Skjei - Carrier
Lauzon - Schenn
Statsney

Few talking points:

I do think that Novak gets the first crack at 2C although Pärssinen will definitely make a run for it as well.

I would like to see the veterans maybe spread out more and add a guy like L'Heureux to that lineup at least just for the start of the year. So for the top-nine something like this:

Forsberg - O'Reilly - Evangelista
Stamkos - Pärssinen - Marchessault
L'Heureux - Novak - Nyquist

I do believe they really liked having Jankowski out there so I have him pretty much as a "lock" in the lineup.

The defense is also pretty much set in stone. It would be uncharacteristic for the organization to already bring up Molendyk and I don't think they'll use both Statsney and Del Gaizo.

 

[Armourboy]

Thanks for talking me off the ledge.

Honestly didn't really have time to go into the depth I wanted, basically did it on breaks at work.

Ultimately I'm not worried because without any of these moves this team would have been a bubble team at best, and basically picking 9 or 10 in the draft at worst. And it would have stayed that way for the next 3-4 seasons as Forsberg and Josi went down and the younger players came up. Now we have a shot at least at some form of post season run for the next couple of years.

For the future in the 3 years after that you should start seeing a swing out of older players as the new come in, and if Trotz has done half decent at picking and developing the drop off should be minimal.

As long as Trotz doesn't do something silly, like selling all of our assets to try and push over the next couple of years, we are going to be in a very rare position for most playoff teams. We should basically roll from an old roster into a young one without all of the pain that usually comes along with it. In theory Saros should be the anchor that can kind of help that transition. I say theory because I have my strong doubts he is going to be a Rinne and play well into his late 30's.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I enjoy prospect discussions and all but I really think the idea that any of these prospects list is close to the "truth" is nonsense. If you go look at say the 2021 prospect rankings Farrance was almost universally our top D prospect and Stastney was somewhere way down the list. Likewise, Evangelista is typically somewhere way down the list. I just don't think any of these online prospect people are actually any more accurate than us just crowdsourcing our rankings. If any of these media prospects experts were actually that good they'd be on an NHL scouting staff.

One of two things has to be true in my opinion. 1. The NHL scouts are very good at assessing the talents of young kids abilities and the organizations are bad at player development or 2. The NHL scouts aren’t very good at assessing young kids abilities and organizations do the best they can developing whatever players the scouts recommend.

Personally I think the NHL draft process is very flawed compared to other professional leagues. The NFL basically has a development league that has always masqueraded under the title of the NCAA. They draft nearly full grown men that are 21-22 years old and are fully ready to compete in the NFL. The MLB does allow younger kids to be drafted but they also have A, AA and AAA farm teams that are run specifically to develop players they draft in their system. The NHL is basically watching 15-18 year old kids to evaluate them, drafting them and then leaving there development up to some junior hockey team in Canada, some college coach or some coach in Europe all of which have other priorities than developing the players that some NHL team drafted. Yes the NHL has the AHL for development but the asinine relationship policies regarding junior players going to the AHL force teams to not have say in their development until they’re 20 and already behind the development curve. The whole situation with the NHL draft eligibility and player development is just screwed up and isn’t very logical. Either raise the age of eligibility for players or use the ECHL and AHL in the same manner that the MLB uses A, AA, and AAA farm teams.

 

[Armourboy]

One of two things has to be true in my opinion. 1. The NHL scouts are very good at assessing the talents of young kids abilities and the organizations are bad at player development or 2. The NHL scouts aren’t very good at assessing young kids abilities and organizations do the best they can developing whatever players the scouts recommend.

Personally I think the NHL draft process is very flawed compared to other professional leagues. The NFL basically has a development league that has always masqueraded under the title of the NCAA. They draft nearly full grown men that are 21-22 years old and are fully ready to compete in the NFL. The MLB does allow younger kids to be drafted but they also have A, AA and AAA farm teams that are run specifically to develop players they draft in their system. The NHL is basically watching 15-18 year old kids to evaluate them, drafting them and then leaving there development up to some junior hockey team in Canada, some college coach or some coach in Europe all of which have other priorities than developing the players that some NHL team drafted. Yes the NHL has the AHL for development but the asinine relationship policies regarding junior players going to the AHL force teams to not have say in their development until they’re 20 and already behind the development curve. The whole situation with the NHL draft eligibility and player development is just screwed up and isn’t very logical. Either raise the age of eligibility for players or use the ECHL and AHL in the same manner that the MLB uses A, AA, and AAA farm teams.

NHL is encumbered by its agreement with the CHL, and I don't see that going anywhere. It's also a far more international based league than the NFL. MLB has some of it, but not to the same extent.

Those other leagues don't have the concerns of an entire other country to worry about like the NHL does with Canada.

 

[glenngineer]

Yet other teams are able to draft and/or develop players better than we can up front.

For the longest time, we were considered D university. Were we though? We drafted and developed some mighty fine D yet I think the number of D that had decent careers with us or with other teams was probably around 7 or 8. Maybe it’s 10ish because I did get to 8 in my head.

 

[Kat Predator]

NHL is encumbered by its agreement with the CHL, and I don't see that going anywhere. It's also a far more international based league than the NFL. MLB has some of it, but not to the same extent.

Those other leagues don't have the concerns of an entire other country to worry about like the NHL does with Canada.

True. Baseball may draft kids out of high school. They have the option of going to college. They have the option of playing in the minor leagues. They have the option of playing in leagues in other countries. Seems a distinction without a real difference.

The NFL is the exception as they have had longstanding agreements with college football (which is a big revenue machine in its own right) on when they can draft players. We basically saw a wink-nod-nudge trust operating between the NCAA and NFL to corner the market, which has historically been the US.

 

[triggrman]

Yet other teams are able to draft and/or develop players better than we can up front.

For the longest time, we were considered D university. Were we though? We drafted and developed some mighty fine D yet I think the number of D that had decent careers with us or with other teams was probably around 7 or 8. Maybe it’s 10ish because I did get to 8 in my head.

Had decent careers? So guys like Skrsstins and Klein are included? Franson? Would Zannon qualify?

Kimmo was expansion draft acquisition but was developed here does he count? Or is it just guys like
Hamhuis
Suter
Weber
Jones
Ellis
Ekholm
Josi?

 

[glenngineer]

Had decent careers? So guys like Skrsstins and Klein are included? Franson? Would Zannon qualify?

Kimmo was expansion draft acquisition but was developed here does he count? Or is it just guys like
Hamhuis
Suter
Weber
Jones
Ellis
Ekholm
Josi?

I included Klein and Skrastins. Franson is debatable. Funny thing is, who have we drafted in the last 10 years that amounted to anything on the blue line? Early on, we identified and hit on a bunch of d, not so much lately.

With all that said, we’ve drafted 3 elite d-men, 2 goalies who were borderline elite and no forwards who were. That’s not a recipe for Cup success.

 

[Kat Predator]

I included Klein and Skrastins. Franson is debatable. Funny thing is, who have we drafted in the last 10 years that amounted to anything on the blue line? Early on, we identified and hit on a bunch of d, not so much lately.

With all that said, we’ve drafted 3 elite d-men, 2 goalies who were borderline elite and no forwards who were. That’s not a recipe for Cup success.

On the bright side, we're now on the Vegas path of building through free agency and trading away prospects, so horrible drafting and lousy player development isn't important.

 

[glenngineer]

On the bright side, we're now on the Vegas path of building through free agency and trading away prospects, so horrible drafting and lousy player development isn't important.

I sure hope so. Florida had three guys on their roster that they drafted so it’s proven to work.

 

[triggrman]

I think we stopped investing in the blue line as much. We’ll see in Molendyk.

 

[Armourboy]

I think we stopped investing in the blue line as much. We’ll see in Molendyk.

That's the big key. I mean we had long term solutions in Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm plus several youngsters we were waiting on with Fabbro, Carrier, etc. What we needed were forwards. Too bad in one of the better drafts for them Poile went and drafted a goalie.

 

[Gh24]

You don't need to draft another Josi every year. If we manage to have one every ten years or so we should be fine. Add few "ekky's" and "ellis'" here and there with a bunch of reliable bottom pair guys and we're good.

It would be great to have a star forward once in a while, but how often does anyone find gems with similar picks to ours? And whoever you happen to point out I don't think we have ever been the only ones to pass those guys. Who knows, maybe one of our current prospects grow into much better hockey players than we're expecting.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

When do Parssinen, Tomasino, and Del Gaizo finally cave in? It's September now, rookie camp starts in 8 days, the 11th, and main camp a week later on the 18th.

What do you think is the holdup?

I can't really see Del Gaizo asking for much. He can only get a 2-way contract, and his NHL salary can't be any higher than the league minimum. I don't think he could have even really come to the team and asked for as much as what Stastney got in arbitration. I don't see how he could ask for more than, say, a 2-way deal at $775k/$350k... if there is any sticking point, it has to be in the weeds of his AHL salary... Gravel is getting $300k, Blankenburg $350k, Stastney $400k... somewhere in that ballpark shouldn't result in any significant delay?

Parssinen also shouldn't be THAT tough to figure out. I would assume he's basically a lock for the main roster, they aren't going to waive him. So I don't see any reason why the Preds would insist on a 2-way contract for him? If you assume he has to get a 1-way, then the sticking point is only $$$? Somewhere from $775k to $1M? Given his demotion last season, I don't see the argument for more than the $775k. Parssinen should have taken that long ago and continued building goodwill with the organization. If he's asking for more $$$, he's nuts. He should just get in there and play hard for a nice contract next year. Just because the team has a little Cap space now after moving Glass, it doesn't mean he should expect any bigger payday today.

Whereas I can see Tomasino being a little more prickly about things. He may optimally prefer to play somewhere else. He has put up decent enough production that he could ask for a little more $$$ than the league minimum, while at the same time, I'm sure the Preds don't see him as a sure bet for the lineup. The team might not mind waiving him, while at the same time Tomasino would probably not mind being waived and getting a chance elsewhere. So even though I can see the two sides not seeing eye-to-eye, I think it ultimately has to be in Tomasino's best interest to just take whatever contract the Preds are offering, even if it's league minimum or 2-way... then if he gets waived just go somewhere else and play and try to earn a better contract next summer.

 

[Ben Grimm]

I've seen every Preds season and this is the first time they've got both enough offense and talent to win the SC. This is our year.