Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[weeze]

Trotz pushed all the chips in the middle of the table. I don't know if that is a "re-tool" or not, but it is taking a huge swing.

It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the new superstars fit in and mesh with the rest of the team.

Yes it is a huge swing! Just as important to me it is a decision! Instead of floundering with safe picks/trades and maybe a good pickup they actually went out and brought in some high name players that are great players! Do something! Well they did! I wasn't sure about last years pickups in ROR and Gus but boy was I wrong and I will admit it. Adding these three new players will really help in many different ways!

 

[weeze]

There are five players on the roster with a cap hit between $2-3 million. The biggest question over the next two months is which of them gets traded off for picks and/or AHL level prospects to open up enough cap space for a replacement plus a 21st player on the roster.
Glass? Fabbro? Schenn? Lauzon? Sissons?

If the rumors are correct in that it was Schenn that spoke with Stamkos to get him to come to Nashville, I don't see anyway that the Preds then turn around and trade or get rid of him. I believe Sissons is too valuable at his cost level so that would leave the last three. Also hear that the Preds org loves Lauzon so he may not be on that list so now down to two. Glass/Fabbro package deal for some picks anyone?

 

[jumb0]

I don't see Schenn going. It's going to be Fabbro and/or Glass

 

[triggrman]

I don't think we should expect much return for Glass, in fact he might lower the return for Fabbro.

 

[herzausstein]

Cap movement is gonna be interesting....

We dont have many contracts that i can see us moving. Everyone over 3.75 million either brings too much value to the team (Forsberg, RoR, Josi, Etc) or was just extended (Carrier). That leaves those below:
Novak - could possibly be moved especially if they see him as a winger and not a center. Brunette also waffles alot with his icetime... still if you have him centering someone like Marchessault and/or stamkos that line might produce alot.

Nyquist - coming off a huge year and the additions of Stamkos and Marchesseult added alot of veteran leadership which makes him more expendable. Still he had a huge year with forsberg and ror so i dont know why youd rock the boat.

Sissons - provides alot of secondary points and kills penalties. Good bottom 6 leadership. Valuable to a team seeking a 3C and vet leadership

Glass - young player, breaks a fair amount, no real trade value but would clear enough space for an extra player and can likely be replaced internally by Pärssinen.

Schenn - supposedly played a big part in securing stamkos... brought in for rhd grit and honestly our rhd group is weak. Could be replaced internally by fabbro but fabbro lacks the desired intangibles for the 3rd pairing.

Fabbro - saw the doghouse alot last season. Would love a bounceback story because he isnt bad but i think he will be sacrificed if needed.

Lauzon - was viewed as a 2nd pairing dman last season by brunette and his contract isnt bad. Would prefer him on the 3rd pairing but lauzon - schenn is an ugly pairing. I doubt he would be traded as his value to the team at 2 million isnt easy to replace.

Everyone else makes little enough to be buried.

Fabbro and Glass are who i think get moved. Outside chance to Novak, Sissons, and Nyquist. More than likely not schenn or lauzon.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Whatever we do with this season's Cap crunch... it's also interesting to ponder how things will look projecting that lineup out to next summer...

2024-25 Nashville Predators

Forsberg ($8.5M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Nyquist ($3.185M)
Evangelista ($0.7975M) - Stamkos ($8M) - Marchessault ($5.5M)
Novak ($3.5M) - Glass ($2.5M) - Tomasino (RFA - $0.775M)
Jankowski ($0.800M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($1M)
McCarron ($0.900M) - Parssinen (RFA - $0.775M)

Skjei ($7M) - Josi ($9.059M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier ($3.75M)
Stastney/Del Gaizo (RFA - $0.775M) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Fabbro ($2.5M)

Saros ($5M)
Wedgewood ($1.5M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $5.5556M

TOTAL: $89,7291M
2024-25 NHL Cap: $88M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $-1.7291M




Next year, we can at least be very sure that Glass and Fabbro will be gone, anyway. One will have already departed prior to the current season, but I would be shocked if either was still around next season. Meanwhile, Nyquist will be a UFA. Evangelista will be ready for a raise on a bridge contract. If we only gave Parssinen a 1-year show-me, then hopefully he'll be ready for a raise too. Ditto Stastney/Del Gaizo. All the bottom end guys signed for 2 years so will still be around. I'll believe they play Molendyk straight out of junior when I see it. There isn't much change, therefore...

2025-26 Nashville Predators

Forsberg ($8.5M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Nyquist (UFA)
Evangelista (RFA) - Stamkos ($8M) - Marchessault ($5.5M)
L'Heureux ($0.8633M) - Parssinen (RFA) - Novak ($3.5M)
Jankowski ($0.800M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($1M)
McCarron ($0.900M)

Skjei ($7M) - Josi ($9.059M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier ($3.75M)
Stastney (RFA) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Del Gaizo (RFA)

Saros ($7.74M)
Wedgewood ($1.5M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $6.5556M

TOTAL: $79.0249M
2024-25 NHL Cap: ?$92M?
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $12.9751M

So even if there might be around $13M in Cap space, it will get chewed up pretty quickly... at least if our young players progress as hoped. Imagine Evangelista and Parssinen are good enough next season to get something like the Glass Bridge, that's $2.5M+$2.5M. Hopefully Stastney or Del Gaizo show themselves to be reasonable regular bottom-pair D. At least one of them at $1.5-$2M. Then fill out the roster with a couple of league minimum players at $775k... so you are looking at using up around $8M of that $13M. It would still leave enough room to replace Nyquist, but not with anybody very fancy, just a similar level of UFA signing.

It's really 2026-27 when the slate is going to be wiped clean on a lot of Cap.

 

[braindead]

For reasons identified above, don’t expect anyone other than Glass or Fabbro to be moved. Glass looks like he has negative trade value, might be substantially negative unfortunately. So Fabbro seems like the overwhelming favorite to move but I expect very little in return. I think there is a good chance we take a smaller bad salary back for one/both of those two guys in order to get some cap relief. Our leverage in the situation is not great.

 

[Armourboy]

For reasons identified above, don’t expect anyone other than Glass or Fabbro to be moved. Glass looks like he has negative trade value, might be substantially negative unfortunately. So Fabbro seems like the overwhelming favorite to move but I expect very little in return. I think there is a good chance we take a smaller bad salary back for one/both of those two guys in order to get some cap relief. Our leverage in the situation is not great.

Glass isn't that far in the negative, too young and doesn't make enough for that. A 4th and a team like San Jose, Chicago, or Anaheim might give him a look. Heck I'd call up San Jose and tell them you will give them the 4th back they paid for Afanasyev.

 

[PredsV82]

Glass isn't that far in the negative, too young and doesn't make enough for that. A 4th and a team like San Jose, Chicago, or Anaheim might give him a look. Heck I'd call up San Jose and tell them you will give them the 4th back they paid for Afanasyev.

They didn't give us a 4th for Egor they gave us Ozzy Wisenblatt

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Glass isn't that far in the negative, too young and doesn't make enough for that. A 4th and a team like San Jose, Chicago, or Anaheim might give him a look. Heck I'd call up San Jose and tell them you will give them the 4th back they paid for Afanasyev.

I just don't think that kind of option is open anymore... ? Some of those teams HAD room... except now they've filled those spots.

 

[herzausstein]

Whatever we do with this season's Cap crunch... it's also interesting to ponder how things will look projecting that lineup out to next summer...

2024-25 Nashville Predators

Forsberg ($8.5M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Nyquist ($3.185M)
Evangelista ($0.7975M) - Stamkos ($8M) - Marchessault ($5.5M)
Novak ($3.5M) - Glass ($2.5M) - Tomasino (RFA - $0.775M)
Jankowski ($0.800M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($1M)
McCarron ($0.900M) - Parssinen (RFA - $0.775M)

Skjei ($7M) - Josi ($9.059M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier ($3.75M)
Stastney/Del Gaizo (RFA - $0.775M) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Fabbro ($2.5M)

Saros ($5M)
Wedgewood ($1.5M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $5.5556M

TOTAL: $89,7291M
2024-25 NHL Cap: $88M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $-1.7291M




Next year, we can at least be very sure that Glass and Fabbro will be gone, anyway. One will have already departed prior to the current season, but I would be shocked if either was still around next season. Meanwhile, Nyquist will be a UFA. Evangelista will be ready for a raise on a bridge contract. If we only gave Parssinen a 1-year show-me, then hopefully he'll be ready for a raise too. Ditto Stastney/Del Gaizo. All the bottom end guys signed for 2 years so will still be around. I'll believe they play Molendyk straight out of junior when I see it. There isn't much change, therefore...

2025-26 Nashville Predators

Forsberg ($8.5M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Nyquist (UFA)
Evangelista (RFA) - Stamkos ($8M) - Marchessault ($5.5M)
L'Heureux ($0.8633M) - Parssinen (RFA) - Novak ($3.5M)
Jankowski ($0.800M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($1M)
McCarron ($0.900M)

Skjei ($7M) - Josi ($9.059M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier ($3.75M)
Stastney (RFA) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Del Gaizo (RFA)

Saros ($7.74M)
Wedgewood ($1.5M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $6.5556M

TOTAL: $79.0249M
2024-25 NHL Cap: ?$92M?
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $12.9751M

So even if there might be around $13M in Cap space, it will get chewed up pretty quickly... at least if our young players progress as hoped. Imagine Evangelista and Parssinen are good enough next season to get something like the Glass Bridge, that's $2.5M+$2.5M. Hopefully Stastney or Del Gaizo show themselves to be reasonable regular bottom-pair D. At least one of them at $1.5-$2M. Then fill out the roster with a couple of league minimum players at $775k... so you are looking at using up around $8M of that $13M. It would still leave enough room to replace Nyquist, but not with anybody very fancy, just a similar level of UFA signing.

It's really 2026-27 when the slate is going to be wiped clean on a lot of Cap.

Hopefully after this season, Evangelista is ready to replace Nyquist. Then depending on what goes on with Tomasino, tomasino replaces Evangelista on the 2nd line or we have kemell ready to move up. There's going to have to be some reliance on young players making the jump to deal with the cap implications. Svechkov, L'Heureux, and Kemell all had good seasons this past year. We will have to see what happens next year but one or more might be able to come up.

After next season,

Forsberg ror Evangelista/Marchesseult
Stamkos Svechkov/Pärssinen Marchessault/Evangelista
L'Heureux/Novak Svechkov/Pärssinen Novak/Tomasino/Kemell

Just so many possibilities

 

[Armourboy]

They didn't give us a 4th for Egor they gave us Ozzy Wisenblatt

Well then give him back

 

[Kat Predator]

I wouldnt say he pushed all his chips in the middle.

We havent spent any futures of consequence. Still have all our prospects, still have all our picks, etc. The picks we did spend were to get young players like Gibson that only serve to make the future core stronger.

UFAs are like playing with house money. He is trying to maximize the current core without jeopardizing the future. Now if we trade off Askarov, Kemell, Etc for win-now pieces that would be pushing all our chips into the middle. Likely will see some prospect swaps at some still and some cap shuffling

That's a reasonable point, Stoneheart. I meant this from the perspective of the cap. The analogy is that every team walks in the door with a specific number of chips in terms of total cap space. Every GM then lays down bets in terms of those chips and the players he bets on.

Trotz spent all those chips. It's almost certain he has to undo some bets to get some breathing room under the cap in fact. That's all in and a change from Poile, who always seemed to leave a good bit of the cap unspent in case of a rainy day.

Obviously, and like you pointed out, there are a wider variety of flavors of bets that could've been made.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't find the Preds ask very reasonable here. I guess I'm not shocked they'd want to keep him 2-way for the coming season, since he's still waiver exempt and they probably will send him down, regardless of his readiness. But then at least they should have offered 1-way money in Year 2.

Meanwhile Stastney probably should have just asked for 1-way $775k, his $$$ are a bit high for somebody who hasn't played regularly yet. But he's clearly ready.

Never really a fan of the team dickering over nickels and dimes like this when players have clearly shown something.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1814661345192608023

 

[jumb0]

Seems like a textbook negotiation.
Team goes low, player goes high. Hopefully they meet in the middle.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Seems like a textbook negotiation.
Team goes low, player goes high. Hopefully they meet in the middle.

Since the Preds picked a 2-year term, it would seem like maybe they are trying to influence the process to land on a 2-way deal in Year 1, and a 1-way in Year 2. He'll be waiver exempt either way, though, so I'm not sure what the penny-pinching is all about.

With the money the team is throwing around this year, whether they pay him $125k+callup$ or just a flat $775k is pretty small potatoes. I'm not sure I'd be worried about "setting precedents" here, because Stastney is 24, has looked good in his callups both of the last 2 seasons, and even good enough to get into playoff games last season. It's not like just any guy in the minors could ask for a 1-way deal if they gave him one. In his case he has shown enough to have actually earned it.

And getting back to the Afanaseyev situation, I know no GM wants an ultimatum from his player, but Afanaseyev is another guy who wanted 1-way money and they preferred to just let him go than to give it to him. I mean, you can play hardball with your developed players like that if you really want to. But again, not just any minor leaguer is even going to be able to ask for this. Afanaseyev put up the great season in Milwaukee that was asked of him, didn't look out of place in his NHL stints - albeit with no production - and yet it was too much to pay him $775k instead of a minor league salary of $150k or $250k or whatever would have been tacked onto a 2-way deal. It's not going to kill the franchise to throw away a candidate 4th-line forward or 3rd-pair D. But at some point when they've reached a certain level of successful development you do just have to integrate them... and pay them. Not everybody is going to be an organizational Yes-Man and sign the Carrier contract and just trust that they'll be taken care of down the road. It's unrealistic to set that as a standard IMO. You put in all the development resources and invest the draft picks, you shouldn't balk at an extra few hundred k right at the finish line and throw all that investment out the window.

 

[PredsV82]

Yeah this seems like the classic example we have seen in the past with a 2 way deal year 1 and a 1 way deal year 2. Hopefully Preds sweeten the AHL money for the first year and it gets done

 

[BigFatCat999]

I’d be happy with Preds 1st yr, Stastney the 2nd

 

[Armourboy]

Arbiter probably goes 2 way first year and 1 way the 2nd, at least I would. Clearly a guy that should be up this season but understand he hasn't stuck yet. Year 2 should be a no brainer he is here so I award him the money.

That said the Arbiter may very well look at the fact we played him for the playoffs until he was injured, which is a sign he should be making NHL money, gives him 1 way on both years but at 775k.

Edit: Should add if Stastney is the one that filed neither he nor the Arbiter have control over the number of years. If the team says two then that is what it will be. That's part of the CBA.

 

[PredsV82]

Arbiter probably goes 2 way first year and 1 way the 2nd, at least I would. Clearly a guy that should be up this season but understand he hasn't stuck yet. Year 2 should be a no brainer he is here so I award him the money.

That said the Arbiter may very well look at the fact we played him for the playoffs until he was injured, which is a sign he should be making NHL money, gives him 1 way on both years but at 775k.

Edit: Should add if Stastney is the one that filed neither he nor the Arbiter have control over the number of years. If the team says two then that is what it will be. That's part of the CBA.

When is the arbitration hearing? Would much rather they settle before a hearing. This should be an easy deal to make

 

[herzausstein]

I don't find the Preds ask very reasonable here. I guess I'm not shocked they'd want to keep him 2-way for the coming season, since he's still waiver exempt and they probably will send him down, regardless of his readiness. But then at least they should have offered 1-way money in Year 2.

Meanwhile Stastney probably should have just asked for 1-way $775k, his $$$ are a bit high for somebody who hasn't played regularly yet. But he's clearly ready.

Never really a fan of the team dickering over nickels and dimes like this when players have clearly shown something.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1814661345192608023

Yeah he hasnt earned that 925K 1 way deal. Not yet anyways. I would also call Nashvilles a little low but we are against the cap and every couple 100K helps. Feel like somewhere in the middle on a 2 way with maybe higher pay in the minors.

825000 NHL 300,000 AHL year 1
825000 1 way year 2

Or something along those lines

 

[triggrman]

Yeah he hasnt earned that 925K 1 way deal. Not yet anyways. I would also call Nashvilles a little low but we are against the cap and every couple 100K helps. Feel like somewhere in the middle on a 2 way with maybe higher pay in the minors.

825000 NHL 300,000 AHL year 1
825000 1 way year 2

Or something along those lines

Disagree. He looked better than a few of our defenders every time he played. There is no reason for him to play in the AHL

 

[herzausstein]

Disagree. He looked better than a few of our defenders every time he played. There is no reason for him to play in the AHL

Gotta disagree. 28 regular season games and 3 playoff games. Should he make the team out of camp sure. Has he earned a 1 way contract? No

 

[triggrman]

4 years of college 2 years in the AHL, he earned it.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Anyone else go back to July 1 posts to get euphoria in? I’m still in thunder shock.