Nashville Predators talk - The offseason.

[beardawg]

As many times as I want, I wasn't talking to you anyways.

It's an open forum. Act your age, not your shoe size man

 

[Preds Partisan]

I think it would be fair to argue that Afanaseyev's upside wasn't that great, and that indeed you can find tweeners like Jankowski and Smith and a dozen UFAs who will fill those spots on your roster anytime you need them filled. Probably. But... *sometimes* a young player keeps on progressing after his ELC runs out and does better than you expected. To me, this is the value in holding onto Afanaseyev, at least for a little while. For now, he does have the size, skating, physical skills to be an adequate 4th line filler. But in the off chance he takes another step and has something more... ? I'd be down for that "off chance", because I know for 100% certain that there is nothing more coming from the Jankowskis and Smiths of the world.

Meanwhile, SJ just wanted to dump Weisblatt, he was a bust pick for them. I remember on draft day there was some rudeness about his family background and all which I thought was unfair, but he also hasn't shown any signs of being a valid NHL prospect, regardless. He's a 5'10" shift disturber at the AHL level, basically. The Preds are saying just renting the player he is for the Admirals next season is more valuable to them than holding onto Afanaseyev. Which is just bad asset management. The Sharks probably would have given him to us for Future Considerations. We didn't need to trade Afanaseyev for him. This is just Trotz saying he's not going to accept any ultimatums. Which if I'm a young player in the Preds organization just says "bring on the ultimatums so I can get the heck out of here".

Being a Preds forward prospect has always been rough going back to the early days for reasons we all know. Sad, but true, if I'm a forward in the organization I'm working on an exit strategy from draft day.

 

[Armourboy]

Being a Preds forward prospect has always been rough going back to the early days for reasons we all know. Sad, but true, if I'm a forward in the organization I'm working on an exit strategy from draft day.

Had hoped Trotz had learned something being away from the organization. Feels like its just going to be more of the same we've seen for 24 years under Poile.

 

[Soundgarden]

if we aren't going to use our young players we need to trade them before their value is considered low. Not saying Egor was worth a top prospect, he was still a mid 2nd, but he could have gotten something in the previous five seasons.

Tolvanen, Tomasino, Parssinen were all considered valuable rising guys and now we're screwing the latter two around.
Fabbro was perfectly fine with Josi, why the hell did we have to appease Tyson freakin Barrie who didn't even want to be here so we can bench Fabbro and Carrier.

I know the summer hasn't officially started yet, but this is a bad start. I'd rather see us trade Kemell, Svechkov, L'Hereux, to get elite players than see them waste their offensive prime in Milwaukee.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

This was hands down a terrible trade. Do good in the ahl and expect to get a shot in the nhl? Nope we’ll trade ya and get a player that will be happy to stay in the ahl. Tomasino will be next. The asset management of this team is absolutely atrocious

 

[wmupreds]

THE NHL IS NOT THE DEVELOPMENTAL OR ASSESSMENT LEAGUE!

Dead wrong, in fact dangerously wrong attitude if you're running a team. Hopelessly wrong. This attitude is how you end up jettisoning players that become productive in other places. If you never give guys a chance to prove themselves (i.e. assess them) at the NHL level you end up in a never ending feedback loop where guys get stuck without opportunity.

Where HF gets off the rails is, none of us as fans have the information to properly assess players at lower levels since we see a small slice of their development. So the hardline "this is the wrong move" takes about any specific player are a bit much. But the statement above is just nonsensical and doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

In any case, it's a two way street in terms of negotiation. Egor saying "play me or I'll go to Russia" (if true) may well have worked for him given he'll have a presumably easier road to ice time in San Jose.

 

[101st_fan]

Dead wrong, in fact dangerously wrong attitude if you're running a team. Hopelessly wrong. This attitude is how you end up jettisoning players that become productive in other places. If you never give guys a chance to prove themselves (i.e. assess them) at the NHL level you end up in a never ending feedback loop where guys get stuck without opportunity.

Where HF gets off the rails is, none of us as fans have the information to properly assess players at lower levels since we see a small slice of their development. So the hardline "this is the wrong move" takes about any specific player are a bit much. But the statement above is just nonsensical and doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

In any case, it's a two way street in terms of negotiation. Egor saying "play me or I'll go to Russia" (if true) may well have worked for him given he'll have a presumably easier road to ice time in San Jose.

The AHL is the top developmental league. The NHL is where those who have emerged from the developmental level compete at the highest level. That is the most basic concept imaginable. It's why 18 year olds making the leap is so rare ... it's why even 1st round picks take years to make the jump to full time NHL player. Not grasping that simple concept is why we have people ranting that youngsters who aren't as good should play in the NHL when their rightful place is the AHL, ECHL, or back in juniors.

If I'm dead wrong and the NHL is a developmental league, then what does the NHL feed into? I await the twisting and failure to answer.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

The road to  Nashville St. Paul/Seattle/San Jose runs through Milwaukee.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

This could bode really well for Ozzy's career though. 1st round pick topping out as a bottom 6 grinder is an archetype that finds success here--Watson, Jankowski, Big Sexy. We should probably start pencilling him in for a full-time roster spot, in 2 years if not eventually in this coming one.

 

[PredsV82]

Sherwood???

Then Trotz got taken Big Time!!!

Egor could be a 3rd line NHL wing next year.
He had 0.96 PPG in the AHL. He should be 0.50 to 0.60 PPG in the NHL. After a season or 2 in the NHL, I see him as a 2nd line wing, which is exactly what the Preds need. A guy with size that can score.

He could be a 3rd line wing on a shitty Sharks team. On what we hope will be a better Preds team? Nope.

I'll repeat what I said on the trade board. Egor should have got more games this year but we were a playoff team and so you have to roll with the players you think are gonna make you win.

What he almost certainly "earned" with his play in Milwaukee this year was a spot on the opening night roster this fall that would then have been up to him to prove he deserved by producing at the NHL level. But it's pretty clear his agent demanded a one way deal, which he most definitely has not earned, and the threat to bolt to Russia left Trotz no choice.

Any of you who have been following this team as long as I have know we have had numerous players who had great AHL stats who did jack squat for much worse preds teams. He could have stayed and earned a paycheck like Novak but he more likely would have been the latest incarnation of Simon Gamache or Timofei Shishkanov

 

[PredsV82]

Being a Preds forward prospect has always been rough going back to the early days for reasons we all know. Sad, but true, if I'm a forward in the organization I'm working on an exit strategy from draft day.

This is a false narrative. Look no further than Novak, who earned a nice payday. Craig Smith earned a spot from his 4th round pick spot. Arvidsson and Sissons too. It's not something that doesn't happen. But you do have to produce at the NHL level. Egor got one shot and was completely invisible. Circumstances prevented him from getting another longer look this year. He would have almost certainly had a chance to prove himself next season but in no way did he deserve a guaranteed spot

 

[Gh24]

What do you guys mean with assessment league?

I mean, you have to see what players can do on NHL level and you can assess them and send them back down to practise on whatever aspect in their game needs honing? Maybe create or update a development plan? have them take extra skating sessions? Re-evaluate the next time they're up with the big club and assess their development?

 

[Scoresberg]

As others have said, in the grand scheme of things the trade is not the end of the world. We didn't give up anything earth-shattering but rather a middling prospect with a decent chance in developing to bottom-six NHL'er. Those are obviously valuable but nothing you can't find every summer in FA.

However, Afanasyev would've been a lot more valuable to us than Wiesblatt will be. We have a lot more wiesblatts in the org than afanasyevs. Afanasyev's also demonstrated upward trajectory in his development, whereas Wiesblatt has just fallen off and is quickly approaching Bust territory. So why make that trade? Waiver-eligibility?

Another dark day for the franchise's prospect development.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think it's also a bit of a weird look that we seem inclined to give opportunities to players who have basically busted with their drafting teams ahead of our own not-yet-busted young players? Moving past the veteran depth tweener guys, it's also a bit strange how we brought in guys like Anderson-Dolan, Foudy, Fagemo, and now (albeit at the minor league level) Wiesblatt instead of looking at our own guys on hand?

 

[Scoresberg]

I think it's also a bit of a weird look that we seem inclined to give opportunities to players who have basically busted with their drafting teams ahead of our own not-yet-busted young players? Moving past the veteran depth tweener guys, it's also a bit strange how we brought in guys like Anderson-Dolan, Foudy, Fagemo, and now (albeit at the minor league level) Wiesblatt instead of looking at our own guys on hand?

Tell me about it.. right when Afanasyev had popped in the AHL going from a 0.45 and 0.46 PPG player to a 0.96 player we decide to move him..

Afanasyev's production increase also happened to be around the same time that Trenin popped in the AHL and the following year became a solid NHL player.

 

[Kat Predator]

This could bode really well for Ozzy's career though. 1st round pick topping out as a bottom 6 grinder is an archetype that finds success here--Watson, Jankowski, Big Sexy. We should probably start pencilling him in for a full-time roster spot, in 2 years if not eventually in this coming one.

Don't forget he hasn't put up great offensive numbers since, what, we were in the SCF? A forward with no offensive game could be exactly what we're looking for.

 

[Soundgarden]

Don't forget he hasn't put up great offensive numbers since, what, we were in the SCF? A forward with no offensive game could be exactly what we're looking for.

Shades of Gaudreau...the other one lol.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Dead wrong, in fact dangerously wrong attitude if you're running a team. Hopelessly wrong. This attitude is how you end up jettisoning players that become productive in other places. If you never give guys a chance to prove themselves (i.e. assess them) at the NHL level you end up in a never ending feedback loop where guys get stuck without opportunity.

Where HF gets off the rails is, none of us as fans have the information to properly assess players at lower levels since we see a small slice of their development. So the hardline "this is the wrong move" takes about any specific player are a bit much. But the statement above is just nonsensical and doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

In any case, it's a two way street in terms of negotiation. Egor saying "play me or I'll go to Russia" (if true) may well have worked for him given he'll have a presumably easier road to ice time in San Jose.

For real. The NHL is not wholly a developmental league like the AHL but continued development is a key objective for teams especially ones who aren't actual contenders such as us currently. It's even more insane to say it isn't an assessment league. When young guys become one of the better players in the AHL the logical next step is to give them NHL time and see what they can do. Like the Afanasyev situation went pretty much exactly how you could have hoped except for the not giving him another real shot at the NHL this season. He got a look in 22-23 and struggled a bit. He then goes back down to Milwaukee puts up a strong playoff performance and then returned this year and was a point per game forward. That to me is a guy who deserves a look. Instead we gave the opportunity to Gurianov, Sherwood, and Jankowski and brought in Beauvillier. I'm fine with guys having to earn their shot but it's completely inconsistent to say that and then also advocate to keep giving opportunities to Sherwood (0g,1a in 20 games from late November to February this year), Jankowski (2g,0a in his first 13 games this season), Gurianov (1g,1a in 14 games), and Beauvillier (2g, 3a in 19 games). Sherwood and Jankowski eventually took advantage of those opportunities and Gurianov and Beauvillier was pretty much nonexistent to terrible their whole time here.

 

[herzausstein]

We really did run the Gurianov experiment for too long when he wasnt doing anything at the NHL level after being called up. Same thing with Beauvillier.

I know the team is trying to build and be competitive/get into the playoffs/etc but last year of Hynes we played exceptionally well with the young players down the stretch yet we didnt let a single young player come up down the stretch this season.

Afanasyev might not become anything but the season he had in the AHL was just begging to see what he could do in the NHL on an extended run. On its face, this seems like a step back. Maybe when all this summers moves are done and we head into next season itll make more sense.

 

[Kat Predator]

For real. The NHL is not wholly a developmental league like the AHL but continued development is a key objective for teams especially once who aren't actual contenders such as us currently. It's even more insane to say it isn't an assessment league. When young guys become one of the better players in the AHL the logical next step is to give them NHL time and see what they can do. Like the Afanasyev situation went pretty much exactly how you could have hoped except for the not giving him another real shot at the NHL this season. He got a look in 22-23 and struggled a bit. He then goes back down to Milwaukee puts up a strong playoff performance and then returned this year and was a point per game forward. That to me is a guy who deserves a look. Instead we gave the opportunity to Gurianov, Sherwood, and Jankowski and brought in Beauvillier. I'm fine with guys having to earn their shot but it's completely inconsistent to say that and then also advocate to keep giving opportunities to Sherwood (0g,1a in 20 games from late November to February this year), Jankowski (2g,0a in his first 13 games this season), Gurianov (1g,1a in 14 games), and Beauvillier (2g, 3a in 19 games). Sherwood and Jankowski eventually took advantage of those opportunities and Gurianov and Beauvillier was pretty much nonexistent to terrible his whole time here.

There is also a false grouping bias argument to be had here.

If we were to rank a group of 100 widgets from 1 to 100, we'd get a certain list. If at first we random distributed those widgets into 20 buckets, and ranked them in their bucket, we'd have 20 lists. Now, the top widget in bucket A might be one of the top 20 in the first list. But the top widget in bucket B might be in the bottom 20 widgets. So, just saying, "he earned it" because it was a widget in bucket B is a false metric. It's convenient and exposes the decision maker to less second guessing perhaps, since they can also say, "but it was the top widget in the B bucket, how could I know it was really in the bottom 20?"

There is also the converse. Just because a widget is 5th in bucket C doesn't mean it isn't better than every widget in bucket D. The "he didn't earn it" refrain rings hollow when that 5th widget is placed in a different bucket and, very unsurprisingly to some, instantly performs well in its widget function, becoming one of the solid widgets in the new bucket.

 

[weeze]

He could be a 3rd line wing on a shitty Sharks team. On what we hope will be a better Preds team? Nope.

I'll repeat what I said on the trade board. Egor should have got more games this year but we were a playoff team and so you have to roll with the players you think are gonna make you win.

Do you think EA cares if the Preds are a PO team if he is in Milwaukee or would he rather be in the NHL on a bad SJS team playing? That is a no brainer! Also the Preds were supposed to be playing their young players to evaluate them IIRC. GMBT basically did just the opposite and kept all of the grinders and mushy middle players to make the PO's. Your typical Preds playbook.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Sometimes I feel like we're in Schrodinger's retool. Can't play young guys because we're a playoff team but then if you complain about the lack of the success in the playoffs its ok because we're in a retool. Can't have it both ways in my book.

 

[Armourboy]

And for what it's worth it's not just some of us on here that's not happy about it, the guys I work with are ticked too.

The problem isn't Afanasyev in particular, it's the fact it looks a whole lot like an organizational problem. If you are going to overcook guys then you gotta be willing to take the next step when the easy time runs out.

Players have options today, that's something Trotz better get his head wrapped around pretty quick. If you aren't going to give them a shot it ain't real hard to find another league that pays you more than 75k a year.

 

[predhead1]

Sometimes I feel like we're in Schrodinger's retool.

Thank you for the morning laugh! I'm absolutely stealing this.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And for what it's worth it's not just some of us on here that's not happy about it, the guys I work with are ticked too.

The problem isn't Afanasyev in particular, it's the fact it looks a whole lot like an organizational problem. If you are going to overcook guys then you gotta be willing to take the next step when the easy time runs out.

Players have options today, that's something Trotz better get his head wrapped around pretty quick. If you aren't going to give them a shot it ain't real hard to find another league that pays you more than 75k a year.

Yeah, "overcooking" might sound good to a guy sitting in a nice suite in Bridgestone, but it's not going to sound as good to the guy roasting on the bus at age 23 in the minors.